Billy Lucas

Former running back at Liberty. 2024: 720 rushing yards, 5 rushing TD, 5 catches.

RB · Liberty · Sr.

5′11″ · 210 lb · Erie, PA

CFB Index 49 · #133 of 310 RBsHigh confidenceLiberty 2024 — college career complete

Recruiting

3★

RB recruit

No. 2086 nationally · Signed with Old Dominion

No college snaps yet.

His career numbers, season by season

The story

Former running back at Liberty. 2024: 720 rushing yards, 5 rushing TD, 5 catches.

Signed as a 3-star recruit to Old Dominion in 2019.

His career, year by year

How it ended

Two seasons at Liberty, 1,317 rushing yards — his college career is complete.

His career

Nobody recruited him. He earned the honors anyway.

2019

Signed with Old Dominion3-star out of Cathedral Prep

202312 games

All-Conference USAhonorable_mention

Career arc

Recruit

★★★

#2086 national

CFB

College

Liberty

2023–2024

NFL

NFL Draft

—

Not drafted

Trophy case · Confirmed honors

What the selectors said

1 honor

🎖

ALL-CONFERENCE USA

All-Conference USA mention (2023)

2024 snapshot

Season context · Team result + system

2 seasons under Jamey Chadwell, all run-heavy offenses — 21-5 over that span.

2023Liberty13-1HC: Jamey Chadwell · Run-heavy

2024Liberty8-4HC: Jamey Chadwell · Run-heavy

Where this profile ranks vs the RB cohort

Box-score + play-by-play EPA percentiles

49Rotational starter #133 of 310?

High confidence13 metrics · season cumulative

Elite: fumbles lost (87th percentile). Strength: yards / carry (83rd percentile). Concern: receptions (20th percentile).

Real play-by-play efficiency

Explosive rate#111 / 442 · 75th pct

9.0%

Yards / carry#119 / 442 · 73rd pct

5.9

Success rate#131 / 442 · 70th pct

49.6%

EPA / carry#176 / 442 · 60th pct

0.21

TD rate#260 / 442 · 41st pct

4.1%

Box-score rates (8)

Fumbles lost#1 / 204 · 87th pct

Yards / carry#54 / 335 · 83rd pct

5.9

Rush yards#99 / 335 · 71st pct

720

Carries#121 / 335 · 64th pct

123

Long run#123 / 335 · 63rd pct

Rush TDs#128 / 335 · 59th pct

Rec yards#230 / 330 · 30th pct

Receptions#257 / 330 · 20th pct

Season trend

Last seasonThis season

EPA / carry

65th → 60th percentile

Success rate

77th → 70th percentile

Explosive rate

48th → 75th percentile

Yards / carry

54th → 73rd percentile

TD rate

67th → 41st percentile

Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season. Most bars are box-score rates; EPA / success-rate bars are computed from real play-by-play (offense only — no defensive EPA model exists yet).

Situational

Situational · Carry shape (PBP, full season)

Yardage DNA

122 carries

10%

Stuffed (≤0)

42%

Grind (1–3)

31%

Chunk (4–9)

17%

Explosive (10+)

Splits & context

Splits · Per-game

2024 season · 11 games

Home/Road · Season halves

Home vs Road

	YDS/g	YPC	TD/g
Home7g	70.1	7.2	0.7
Road4g	57.2	5.7	0.0

First half vs Second half

	YDS/g	YPC	TD/g
Weeks 1-76g	60.0	7.1	0.7
Weeks 8+5g	72.0	6.1	0.2

Supporting cast · Scheme

Staff and system around the player

2026 season

Head Coach

Jamey Chadwell

Scheme reads (pass share, tempo, sack rate) need at least 3 team games — 2 games in so far.

Awards

Player standing · 2024

Starter

A locked-in starting job.

Recognition

Roster2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex

Production · CFB Index Score

49 · #133 of 310 RBs

Three-star recruit. Now #133 at the position.

Career stats

Season	Team
2024	Liberty	123	720	5.9	5	--
2023	Liberty	114	597	5.2	6	--
Career		237	1,317	5.6	11	--

Season	Team
2024	Liberty	5	51	10.2	--
2023	Liberty	4	60	15.0	--
Career		9	111	12.3	--

Signature game

SIGNATURE GAME · Week 1 · 2024

W 41–24

vs Campbell

78 rush yds (17 car) · 1 TD

With K. Salter — 242 yds · 2 TD · 0 INT · QBR 49.1 · 48 rush yds (9 car) · T. Sibley — 5 rec · 109 yds · 1 TD

Signature plays

Signature plays · top plays by |EPA|

The plays that mattered most

fact

Week 1 · Buffalo · 1&10 · Q2 · EPA +3.81Billy Lucas run for 55 yds to the BUF 30 for a 1ST down
Week 13 · Western Kentucky · 3&9 · Q2 · EPA +3.18Billy Lucas run for 36 yds to the LIB 47 for a 1ST down
Week 1 · Campbell · 3&5 · Q4 · EPA +2.76Billy Lucas run for 5 yds for a TD (Colin Karhu KICK)
Week 3 · UTEP · 1&10 · Q1 · EPA +2.53Billy Lucas run for 12 yds for a TD (Colin Karhu KICK)
Week 9 · Kennesaw State · 2&13 · Q1 · EPA +2.47Billy Lucas run for 20 yds to the LIB 42 for a 1ST down
Week 1 · Campbell · 2&6 · Q1 · EPA +2.19Billy Lucas run for 19 yds to the CAM 45 for a 1ST down
Week 1 · Buffalo · 3&9 · Q2 · EPA +2.10Ryan Burger pass complete to Billy Lucas for 11 yds to the LIB 38 for a 1ST down
Week 3 · UTEP · 2&2 · Q3 · EPA +2.07Billy Lucas run for 2 yds for a TD (Colin Karhu KICK)
Week 14 · Sam Houston · 2&10 · Q4 · EPA +2.02Billy Lucas run for 16 yds to the SHSU 34 for a 1ST down
Week 3 · UTEP · 2&7 · Q3 · EPA +2.00Billy Lucas run for 16 yds to the LIB 44 for a 1ST down

Game log

Game log · Week-by-week

2024 season · 11 games

Box score · CFBD

Wk	Opp	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG	Note
Wk 1	W 41-24vs Campbell	17	78	4.6	1	19
Wk 2	W 30-24@ New Mexico State	8	23	2.9	0	5
Wk 3	W 28-10vs UTEP	21	104	5.0	3	19	3 rushing TDs
Wk 4	W 35-24vs East Carolina	11	59	5.4	0	28
Wk 7	W 31-24vs Florida International	7	39	5.6	0	10
Wk 9	L 24-27@ Kennesaw State	11	52	4.7	0	20
Wk 10	L 21-31vs Jacksonville State	6	23	3.8	0	15
Wk 12	W 35-34@ Massachusetts	11	95	8.6	0	34
Wk 13	W 38-21vs Western Kentucky	19	131	6.9	1	36	Season-high 131 yds
Wk 14	L 18-20@ Sam Houston	9	59	6.6	0	16
Bowl	L 7-26vs Buffalo	3	57	19.0	0	55
Total		123	720	6.6	5	55

How he plays

Play style

Plays within the scheme — consistent production without a dominant dimension.

CFB Index positional classification

Boom vs consistent · carry-yardage shape

Steady, not spectacular

~ our read

122Carries

716Yards

24.2%Top-5 share

9.8%Stuffed rate

Just 24.2% of his season rushing yards came on his 5 best carries — remarkably even — and he's stuffed on 9.8% of his carries. 6 carries for 23 yds vs Jacksonville State; 19 for 131 vs Western Kentucky.

Closer · Q4-with-lead carry share

The closer

~ our read

24.3%Carry share

32.9%Q4-lead share

87.0%In competitive games

24.3% of carries overall (121/497) → 32.9% of Q4-with-lead carries (23/70) — 87.0% of those in competitive (≤16-pt) games.

Short-yardage / goal-line · enumeration

Who gets the tough yard

fact

6/18Inside-5 share

6 of the team's 18 inside-the-5 carries (33.3%).