cfb zeitgeistZeitgeist
OFFSEASON · SUMMER 2026 · COMMITMENT SEASON
Heisman / Players / Domonique Orange /Iowa State

Domonique Orange

DL · Iowa State · Sr · #95

Below the discourse floor — the honest stats-only state.

18 TACKLES · 0 SACKS

2026 NFL DRAFTDrafted by Minnesota — Rd 3, Pick 18, #82 overall

Where He Ended Up · NFL

Minnesota2026 NFL rookie season

#82Rd 3 · Pick 18
Minnesota2026 NFL rookie season

DL · IOWA STATE · BIG 12

Domonique Orange

  • 4
  • #95
  • 6-4 | 325 lb
  • Kansas City, MO

CFB Zeitgeist Score

37

Mid-pack in the position cohort. Carried by qb hurries at the 88th percentile.

Heisman Heat

#9712

<1% win probability

Fan Belief

Awaiting

Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.

Respect Gap

Awaiting

Coming online with player-level FI.

Reality Gap

Awaiting

Coming online with player-level FI.

ACCOLADE PROBABILITY

Heisman

<1%

TOP DEFENSE AWARD

Nagurski

CONSENSUS

All-American

Player Standing · 17 rungs

Tier 2 · Starter

R05 · Part-time starter

Part-time starter. Splitting first-team reps.

Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex

Career Arc

HS
Recruit
★★★
#483 national
CFB
College
Iowa State
2022–2025
NFL
NFL Draft
R3 &middot; #82
Minnesota &middot; 2026

Identity & Role

The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.

PositionDL
Class4
Jersey95
Measurements6-4 | 325 lb
HometownKansas City, MO
Primary teamIowa State

Recruiting Pedigree

How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.

Top pedigree 3-star No. 483 recruit
Composite rating 0.8856 HighSchool
Signed with Iowa State 2022
Origin North Kansas City Kansas City, MO, USA
Class Profile Context
2022 3-star | 0.8856 No. 483 recruit | HighSchool | Iowa State

Transfer Arc

Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.

Portal moves 0 No portal entry on file
Latest destination -- --
Transfer stars -- CFBD transfer rating context
Eligibility -- Transfer date TBD
Season Move Context
No transfer portal moves on file for this player.

Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final

Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.

HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16
Current nowcast#9712Latest modeled ballot order
Season forecast#9230Where the full season sim points
Win probability0.0%Chance to actually win the trophy
Finalist probability0.0%Chance to make the finalist tier
Ballot probability0.0%Chance to appear anywhere on a ballot
Best official finish--Best completed Heisman placement on file

Heisman Futures

Not yet listed on major futures markets.

No achievements unlocked yet this season.

Selector Grid · 2025

AP
FWAA
AFCA
WCFF
SN
SI

Selector recognition fills in once the major honors lists (AP, FWAA, AFCA, Walter Camp, Sporting News, SI) are scraped and ingested.

NIL · Recruiting · NFL Draft

Market value, pedigree & pro outcome

Recruit stars

★★★☆☆

to Iowa State

Composite

0.8856

#483 national

NFL Draft

2026 · Rd 3, Pick 18

#82 overall · Minnesota

Today’s Hot-Take

The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.

Anti-Take

PENDING

The contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.

The Room on Domonique Orange

Fan sentiment · Awaiting signal

The Room reads fan conversation around a player — who’s talking, what they believe, and how that shifts. It publishes once weekly volume rebuilds; for most players that’s in-season, when game-week chatter spikes.

Cohort divergence map

Cohort divergence reads how different fanbases talk about this player. Returns once weekly mentions clear the publish floor.

Rival Radar

How rival fanbases talk about Domonique Orange

No rival-bucket mentions in the current season.

Signature Story

Awaiting candidate metric

He hasn't written his page yet — we'll start filling it in when there are enough snaps to rank against his peers.

Signature Moment

No signature moment on the ledger yet.

Returns once this player puts together a multi-game body of work — single-game flashes alone don't clear the bar.

A 3-act season arc returns once this player has six or more games on the ledger.

Season Pace · Projection

Where the defensive totals stand

projecting to 13-game
Through 8g
18Tackles
0.5Tackles for loss
0Sacks
Per game
2Tackles
0.1Tackles for loss
0Sacks
Projected (13g)
29Tackles
0.8Tackles for loss
0Sacks

To hit 80-tackle season (currently 18): needs 12.4/game over remaining 5.

To hit 100-tackle season (currently 18): needs 16.4/game over remaining 5.

To hit 6-sack season (currently 0): needs 1.2/game over remaining 5.

To hit 10-sack season (currently 0): needs 2/game over remaining 5.

Why this is a rare defensive case

The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.

Domonique Orange is trying to climb the steepest award hill in college football: a defensive candidacy. The hook is the disruption profile on Iowa State's defense, with 0.0 sacks, 0.5 tackles for loss, and -- interceptions through the current loaded season. For a defender, the question is never just production; it is whether elite disruption and team context can become nationally undeniable.

Current place #9712 0.0% win | 0.0% finalist
Role load -- Role share still loading
Profile quirk Defensive rarity 0.0 sacks | 0.5 TFL

2025 Season · Final

Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.

Last season

DEF season snapshot

2025 season snapshot | final

2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Total tackles 18 9 solo | #2161/4942 (56th pct)
TFL 0.5 Backfield disruption | #2658/4972 (47th pct)
Sacks 0.0 Pass-rush finish | #1762/4972 (65th pct)
Player identity What kind of player is this?

30-second read

What kind of player is this?

High-disruption defender against FBS defenders.

High-disruption defender

2025 Season · Final

2025 season snapshot | final

Tackling & Disruption

TOT
18 56th
SOLO
9 54th
TFL
0.5 47th
SACK
0.0 65th
QBH
4 85th

Coverage & Takeaways

PD
1 43rd

Game Log · Week-by-week

2025 season · 8 games

Box score · CFBD
WkOppTKLSOLOTFLSACKINTPDNote
Wk 1W 24-21@ Kansas State220.00.00
Wk 2W 16-13vs Iowa630.00.00Season-high 6 tackles
Wk 3W 24-16@ Arkansas State110.00.00
Wk 5W 39-14vs Arizona100.00.00
Wk 7L 17-24@ Colorado210.00.00
Wk 9L 27-41vs BYU100.00.01
Wk 10L 19-24vs Arizona State210.00.00
Wk 11W 20-17@ TCU310.50.00
Total1890.50.01
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score

Traditional history

Traditional Stats

Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.

Season rows Career row

Season context · Team result + system

2022Iowa State4-8HC: Matt Campbell · Pass-leaning
2023Iowa State7-6HC: Matt Campbell · Balanced, slow tempo
2025Iowa State8-4HC: Matt Campbell · Run-leaning
SeasonTeam
2025Iowa State1890.50.01----
2023Iowa State1672.00.0------
2022Iowa State830.00.0------
Career3 loaded seasons42192.50.01----
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context

Advanced metrics second

Advanced Metrics

Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.

Usage Value Context
Disruption stats

TFL, sacks, and QB hurries are grouped together because defensive Heisman cases are usually built on visible havoc, not on tackle counts alone.

Coverage splash

Pass breakups, interceptions, and forced fumbles matter because national awards voters respond to plays that change possessions and highlight reels.

Peer percentile

Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.

Traditional first

The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.

INT -- -- pick-six TD
Pass breakups 1 Coverage disruption | #1241/2184 (43rd pct)
QB pressures 4 Quarterback hurries | #291/1878 (85th pct)
Open full stat explorer
0 metrics visible Showing all metrics
Group Metric Value Rank Pct Why it matters
Defense Total tackles 18 #2161/4942 56th pct Volumevs FBS DEF
Defense TFL 0.5 #2658/4972 47th pct Disruptionvs FBS DEF
Defense Sacks 0.0 #1762/4972 65th pct Disruptionvs FBS DEF
Defense Pass breakups 1 #1241/2184 43rd pct Coveragevs FBS DEF
Defense QB hurries 4 #291/1878 85th pct Disruptionvs FBS DEF
Defense Solo tackles 9 #2127/4584 54th pct Volumevs FBS DEF

Player Standing

Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.

AWAITING CLASSIFICATION

On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex

AWAITING CLASSIFICATION · Rung None of 16

Why he’s here

Standing classification populates when honors, Heisman, and roster signals all align.

What moves him up

What moves him down

Accolade streams

StatusAwaiting tracker

The Lombardi award tracker integrates per-week probability once a dedicated scraper for this award lands. Confirmed past winners and finalists for this player will surface here.

Splits · Per-game

2025 season · 8 games

Home/Road · Win/Loss · Season halves

Home vs Road

TKL/gTFL/gSACK/gPD/g
Home4g2.50.00.00.2
Road4g2.00.10.00.0

Win vs Loss

TKL/gTFL/gSACK/gPD/g
Wins5g2.60.10.00.0
Losses3g1.70.00.00.3

First half vs Second half

TKL/gTFL/gSACK/gPD/g
Weeks 1-75g2.40.00.00.0
Weeks 8+3g2.00.20.00.3

Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.

Savant · Box-rate percentiles

Where this profile ranks vs the DL cohort

37Mid-pack
6 metrics · season cumulative

Elite: qb hurries (87th). Concern: tackles for loss (18th).

QB hurries#288 / 2975 · 88th pct
4defe
Passes defended#1191 / 2975 · 48th pct
1defe
Tackles#2161 / 2975 · 26th pct
18defe
Solo tackles#2127 / 2975 · 26th pct
9defe
Sacks#1575 / 2975 · 24th pct
0.0defe
Tackles for loss#2332 / 2975 · 18th pct
0.5defe

Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.

Advanced Savant · DL · 2024

Percentile Card

Advanced opponent-adjusted percentile bars are coming soon for this player.

P4G5All FBS
EPA / dropback
awaiting
CPOE
awaiting
Success rate
awaiting
Explosive rate (20+)
awaiting
aDOT
awaiting
Deep-ball accuracy
awaiting
Pressure-to-sack
awaiting
3rd-down EPA
awaiting
Red-zone TD rate
awaiting
Play-action EPA
awaiting
Scramble EPA
awaiting
Turnover-worthy play rate
awaiting

Advanced Savant

Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.

Advanced opponent-adjusted metrics are coming soon for this player. Selected cohort: P4.

Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match

Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile

3 peers · 6 metrics
Domonique OrangeIowa StateBlake FletcherAir Force· 59% simTyler MartinMassachusetts· 49% simBryce LlewellynEastern Michigan· 49% sim
QB hurries
88
Orange
92
Fletcher
22
Martin
72
Llewellyn
Passes defended
48
Orange
67
Fletcher
67
Martin
86
Llewellyn
Tackles
26
Orange
99
Fletcher
98
Martin
99
Llewellyn
Solo tackles
26
Orange
91
Fletcher
87
Martin
95
Llewellyn
Sacks
24
Orange
24
Fletcher
24
Martin
24
Llewellyn
Tackles for loss
18
Orange
28
Fletcher
63
Martin
80
Llewellyn

Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.

Player DNA

The Nose Anchor

Two-gap space-eater who occupies blockers and frees the linebackers.

IDL

His 2025 production profile sits closest to Joshua Harris’s 2021 season.

Joshua Harris

92%match

NC State · 2021

#2

Kedrick Bingley-Jones

Mississippi State · 2025

92%
#3

Ricky Correia

California · 2022

91%
#4

Eric Taylor

Mississippi State · 2023

90%
#5

PJ Mustipher

Penn State · 2022

88%

Matches Joshua on

Sack rate
Weight
Height

Not enough data yet for this comparison.

As a senior, his production profile tracks closest to Kedrick Bingley-Jones's senior season at Mississippi State (2025).

Kedrick Bingley-Jones

94%match

Mississippi State · 2025

#2

Tymon Mitchell

TCU · 2023

89%
#3

Joshua Harris

Ole Miss · 2023

88%
#4

Sterling Smithson

Missouri State · 2025

88%
#5

Logan Richter

Minnesota · 2023

87%

Matches Kedrick on

Class year
Height
Sack rate

Supporting Cast · Scheme

Staff and system around the player

2025 season

Head Coach

Matt Campbell

Pass share

42.4%

345 pass / 469 run

Plays / game

67.8

12 games

OL sack rate (allowed)

6.8%

296 dropbacks · PBP

Scheme: Run-leaning.

Coaching Lineage · 2022–2025

1 coach
2022
Matt Campbell
Iowa State
2023
Matt Campbell
Iowa State
2025
Matt Campbell
Iowa State

Played his entire career under Matt Campbell.

Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster

Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.

HometownKansas City, MO
Height6'4"
Weight325 lb
Class4
PositionDL
Jersey95

Trophy Case · Detail

Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.

Honors

No formal honors on the ledger yet

All-America, all-conference, player-of-the-week, watch-list, and postseason awards land here when they're earned. The absence is the signal: most players never collect formal honors, and that's its own kind of context.

Honors Timeline

Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.

Season Honor Scope Team / Selector Context
No formal honors on the ledger yet. All-America, all-conference, weekly awards, watch lists, and postseason trophies land here when they’re earned.

Heisman By Year

Modeled rank and official finish by season.

Season Team Role Latest Model Forecast Win Finalist Official Finish Points Context
2024 Iowa State DL4 #9712 #9230 0.0% 0.0% -- -- W16 snapshot | Big 12
2023 Iowa State DL4 #8981 #9029 0.0% 0.0% -- -- W19 snapshot | Big 12
2022 Iowa State DL4 #10610 #10622 0.0% 0.0% -- -- W20 snapshot | Big 12

Roster Timeline

Team, conference, and class by season.

Season Team Conference Pos Class Bio
2025 Iowa State Big 12 DL 4 No. 95 | 6-4 | 325 lb | Kansas City, MO
2024 Iowa State Big 12 DL 4 No. 95 | 6-4 | 325 lb | Kansas City, MO
2023 Iowa State Big 12 DL 4 No. 95 | 6-4 | 325 lb | Kansas City, MO
2022 Iowa State Big 12 DL 4 No. 95 | 6-4 | 325 lb | Kansas City, MO