Heisman / Players / Mataeo Durant /Duke

Mataeo Durant

RB · Duke · Sr · #21

Limited signal — not enough coverage for a story yet.

ALUMNUSDuke 2021 alumnusAs of Jun 22, 2026

RB · DUKE · ACC

Mataeo Durant

4
#21
6-1 | 195 lb
McCormick, SC

CFB Zeitgeist RB Score

Awaiting

Heisman Heat

#180

<1% win probability

Fan Belief

Awaiting

Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.

Respect Gap

Awaiting

Coming online with player-level FI.

Reality Gap

Awaiting

Coming online with player-level FI.

ACCOLADE PROBABILITY

Heisman

<1%

TOP RB AWARD

Doak Walker

—

CONSENSUS

All-American

—

Player Standing · 17 rungs

Tier 1 · 2-deep

R02 · Deep reserve

Deep reserve. In the program, working up the two-deep.

Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex

Career Arc

Recruit

★★★

#1416 national

CFB

College

Duke

2021

NFL

NFL Draft

—

Not drafted (yet)

Identity & Role

The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.

PositionRB

Class4

Jersey21

Measurements6-1 | 195 lb

HometownMcCormick, SC

Primary teamDuke

Recruiting Pedigree

How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.

Top pedigree 3-star No. 1416 recruit

Composite rating 0.8371 HighSchool

Signed with Duke 2018

Origin McCormick Mccormick, SC, USA

Class	Profile	Context
2018	3-star \| 0.8371	No. 1416 recruit \| HighSchool \| Duke

Transfer Arc

Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.

Portal moves 0 No portal entry on file

Latest destination -- --

Transfer stars -- CFBD transfer rating context

Eligibility -- Transfer date TBD

Season	Move	Context
No transfer portal moves on file for this player.

Heisman Lens · 2021 Season · Final

Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.

HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 20

Current nowcast#180Latest modeled ballot order

Season forecast#261Where the full season sim points

Win probability0.0%Chance to actually win the trophy

Finalist probability0.0%Chance to make the finalist tier

Ballot probability0.0%Chance to appear anywhere on a ballot

Best official finish--Best completed Heisman placement on file

Heisman Futures

Not yet listed on major futures markets.

No achievements unlocked yet this season.

Selector Grid · 2025

AP—

FWAA—

AFCA—

WCFF—

SN—

SI—

Selector recognition fills in once the major honors lists (AP, FWAA, AFCA, Walter Camp, Sporting News, SI) are scraped and ingested.

NIL · Recruiting · NFL Draft

Market value, pedigree & pro outcome

Recruit stars

★★★☆☆

to Duke

Composite

0.8371

#1416 national

Today’s Hot-Take

The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.

The contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.

The Room reads fan conversation around a player — who’s talking, what they believe, and how that shifts. It publishes once weekly volume rebuilds; for most players that’s in-season, when game-week chatter spikes.

Cohort divergence map

Cohort divergence reads how different fanbases talk about this player. Returns once weekly mentions clear the publish floor.

No rival-bucket mentions in the current season.

Signature Story

Awaiting candidate metric

He hasn't written his page yet — we'll start filling it in when there are enough snaps to rank against his peers.

Signature Moment

No signature moment on the ledger yet.

Returns once this player puts together a multi-game body of work — single-game flashes alone don't clear the bar.

A 3-act season arc returns once this player has six or more games on the ledger.

Scenario Explorer

Available for players with a qualifying signature metric (passing yards, rushing yards, receiving yards, sacks, etc.). The slider projects how a season finishes if the current pace holds.

Why this is more than a rushing profile

The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.

Mataeo Durant is not a one-lane back. The profile is interesting because the workload spills beyond pure rushing volume: 1,241 rushing yards, 27 catches, and 0 return yards for Duke. That kind of all-purpose footprint gives the card a much richer story than a basic carry total.

Current place #180 0.0% win | 0.0% finalist

Role load 31.3% Overall usage share

Profile quirk All-purpose load The card should explain why this profile stands out

2021 Season · Final

Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.

Last season

RB season snapshot

2021 season snapshot | final

2021 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level

Scrimmage yards 1,497 1,241 rush | 256 rec | #14/735 (98th pct)

Rush TD 9 255 carries | #43/739 (94th pct)

Yards/carry 4.9 Per-rush efficiency | #305/735 (59th pct)

Player identity What kind of player is this?

30-second read

What kind of player is this?

Workhorse | Passing-game back against FBS RB peers.

WorkhorsePassing-game back

Rushing

CAR

255 100th

YDS

1,241 98th

YPC

4.9 59th

9 94th

Receiving

REC

27 92nd

YDS

256 95th

YPR

9.5 74th

2 97th

Game Log

Week-by-week box

No per-game rows for this season yet — the table fills in as box scores arrive.

Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score

Traditional history

Traditional Stats

Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.

Season rows Career row

Season context · Team result + system

2021Duke3-9HC: David Cutcliffe · Run-leaning, fast tempo

Season	Team
2021	Duke	255	1,241	4.9	9	--
Career	1 loaded season	255	1,241	4.9	9	--

Season	Team
2021	Duke	27	256	9.5	2	--
Career	1 loaded season	27	256	9.5	2	--

Advanced layer Usage, value, and context

Advanced metrics second

Advanced Metrics

Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.

Usage Value Context

Rushing WEPA

Opponent-adjusted rushing value. It helps separate empty volume from carries that actually move the scoreboard.

Role share

How much of the team's offense flows through this back once rushing work and receiving work are combined.

Peer percentile

Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.

Traditional first

The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.

Receiving work 27 256 rec yds | #46/552 (92nd pct)

Usage 31.3% 51.8% rush share | #8/738 (99th pct)

Rushing WEPA +0.10 Opponent-adjusted rush value | #209/362 (43rd pct)

Open full stat explorer

Group	Metric	Value	Rank	Pct	Why it matters
Rushing	Rushing yards	1,241	#14/735	98th pct	Volumevs FBS RB
Rushing	Rush TD	9	#43/739	94th pct	Scoringvs FBS RB
Rushing	Yards / carry	4.9	#305/735	59th pct	Efficiencyvs FBS RB
Receiving	Receptions	27	#46/552	92nd pct	Volumevs FBS RB
Receiving	Receiving yards	256	#26/548	95th pct	Volumevs FBS RB
Value	Rushing WEPA	+0.10	#209/362	43rd pct	Opponent-adjusted rushing value \| 246 weighted playsvs FBS RB
Usage	Role share	31.3%	#8/738	99th pct	Share of team offensevs FBS RB
Rushing	Carries	255	#4/739	100th pct	Volumevs FBS RB
Rushing	Rushing LONG	59	#108/733	85th pct	Metricvs FBS RB
Receiving	Receiving LONG	53	#40/540	93rd pct	Metricvs FBS RB
Receiving	Yards / catch	9.5	#145/548	74th pct	Efficiencyvs FBS RB
Receiving	Receiving TD	2	#20/552	97th pct	Scoringvs FBS RB
Usage	Rush share	51.8%	#10/738	99th pct	Ground-game usagevs FBS RB
Usage	2nd-down usage	36.7%	#3/738	100th pct	Middle-down loadvs FBS RB
Usage	Standard-down usage	36.3%	#7/738	99th pct	Base-situation sharevs FBS RB
Usage	1st-down usage	33.0%	#20/738	97th pct	Early-down loadvs FBS RB
Usage	3rd-down usage	22.0%	#19/738	98th pct	Money-down loadvs FBS RB
Usage	Passing-down usage	20.8%	#19/738	98th pct	Known-passing sharevs FBS RB
Usage	Pass share	7.8%	#61/738	92nd pct	Air-game usagevs FBS RB
Ball Security	Fumbles lost	7	#257/257	0th pct	Turnoversvs FBS RB

AWAITING CLASSIFICATION

On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex

AWAITING CLASSIFICATION · Rung None of 16

Why he’s here

Standing classification populates when honors, Heisman, and roster signals all align.

What moves him up

What moves him down

Accolade streams

Status—Awaiting tracker

Heisman model tracks the top FBS contenders weekly; this player hasn't entered the watch list yet.

Splits

Per-game splits

Splits fill in once box scores from at least three games land for this season.

Box-score Savant card waits for a season-stat snapshot above the cohort floor. Returns once enough box-score volume lands.

EPA / dropback—

awaiting

CPOE—

awaiting

Success rate—

awaiting

Explosive rate (20+)—

awaiting

aDOT—

awaiting

Deep-ball accuracy—

awaiting

Pressure-to-sack—

awaiting

3rd-down EPA—

awaiting

Red-zone TD rate—

awaiting

Play-action EPA—

awaiting

Scramble EPA—

awaiting

Turnover-worthy play rate—

awaiting

Advanced opponent-adjusted metrics are coming soon for this player. Selected cohort: P4.

Peer Comparator returns once this player clears the Savant metric floor (4+ scored bars).

DNA Match awaiting data — similarity scores compute once season stats clear the volume gate for this position cohort.

Supporting Cast · Scheme

Staff and system around the player

2025 season

Head Coach

Manny Diaz

Pass share

53.3%

506 pass / 444 run

Plays / game

67.9

14 games

OL sack rate (allowed)

6.7%

358 dropbacks · PBP

Scheme: Balanced.

Coaching Lineage · 2021

1 coach

2021

David Cutcliffe

Duke

Played his entire career under David Cutcliffe.

HometownMcCormick, SC

Height6'1"

Weight195 lb

Class4

PositionRB

Jersey21

Trophy Case · Detail

Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.

Honors

No formal honors on the ledger yet

All-America, all-conference, player-of-the-week, watch-list, and postseason awards land here when they're earned. The absence is the signal: most players never collect formal honors, and that's its own kind of context.

Honors Timeline

Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.

Season	Honor	Scope	Team / Selector	Context
No formal honors on the ledger yet. All-America, all-conference, weekly awards, watch lists, and postseason trophies land here when they’re earned.

Heisman By Year

Modeled rank and official finish by season.

Season	Team	Role	Latest Model	Forecast	Win	Finalist	Official Finish	Points	Context
2021	Duke	RB4	#180	#261	0.0%	0.0%	--	--	W20 snapshot \| ACC

Roster Timeline

Team, conference, and class by season.

Season	Team	Conference	Pos	Class	Bio
2021	Duke	ACC	RB	4	No. 21 \| 6-1 \| 195 lb \| McCormick, SC

Mataeo Durant

R02 · Deep reserve

Identity & Role

Recruiting Pedigree

Transfer Arc

Heisman Lens · 2021 Season · Final

The Room on Mataeo Durant

How rival fanbases talk about Mataeo Durant

Awaiting candidate metric

Why this is more than a rushing profile

2021 Season · Final

RB season snapshot

What kind of player is this?

2021 Season · Final

Traditional Stats

Advanced Metrics

Player Standing

Percentile Card

Advanced Savant

Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster

Trophy Case · Detail

No formal honors on the ledger yet

Honors Timeline

Heisman By Year

Roster Timeline