Nick Arbuckle: QB · Georgia State · #4.
Closest statistical matches, adjusted for opponent strength.
Nick Arbuckle
Pushes it downfield on every look. Two seasons in the Georgia State quarterback room to date. First career honor, 2015: All-Sun Belt. One game to point at: 471 passing yards and 25 rushing yards against Texas State — Week 11, 2015.
Play style
Elite arm talent, pushing downfield. Completion rate is the variable.
Checkdown vs gunslinger · 3rd-and-long
Where the completions actually land
53.7% completion on 3rd-and-8+, but only 30.2% conversion-per-dropback — 34.5% of completions land short of the sticks.
Where completions land is fact — whether incompletions were aimed deep is intent, not recorded here, so this card counts completions only. checkdown by design
Short-yardage / goal-line · enumeration
Who gets the tough yard
7 of the team's 23 inside-the-5 carries (30.4%).
No outlet on our list has written about this player by name this season.
Swipe the table sideways for more columns.
| Season | Team | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | Georgia State | 307 | 486 | 63.2% | 4,368 | 9.0 | 28 | 12 | 152.7 | 69 |
| 2014 | Georgia State | 259 | 429 | 60.4% | 3,283 | 7.7 | 23 | 17 | 134.4 | 43 |
| Career | 566 | 915 | 61.9% | 7,651 | 8.4 | 51 | 29 | 144.2 | 59 |
| Season | Team | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | Georgia State | 61 | −95 | −1.6 | 6 | 25 |
| 2014 | Georgia State | 73 | 10 | 0.1 | 2 | 21 |
| Career | 134 | −85 | −0.6 | 8 | 25 |
Game log · Week-by-week
2015 season · 13 games
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| Wk | Opp | CMP/ATT | YDS | TD | INT | YPA | QBR | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | L 20-23vs Charlotte | 25/43 | 299 | 2 | 1 | 7.0 | 24.7 | |
| Wk 2 | W 34-32@ New Mexico State | 32/43 | 372 | 2 | 1 | 8.7 | 81.5 | |
| Wk 3 | L 28-61@ No. 12 Oregon | 25/35 | 318 | 3 | 2 | 9.1 | 38.5 | 3 TD passes |
| Wk 5 | L 33-41vs Liberty | 18/29 | 394 | 3 | 1 | 13.6 | 79.4 | 3 TD passes |
| Wk 6 | L 3-37vs App State | 21/37 | 166 | 0 | 1 | 4.5 | 25.9 | |
| Wk 7 | W 31-19@ Ball State | 28/38 | 412 | 1 | 0 | 10.8 | 90.2 | |
| Wk 9 | L 34-48@ Arkansas State | 23/43 | 390 | 2 | 1 | 9.1 | 52.8 | |
| Wk 10 | L 21-23vs Louisiana | 22/38 | 313 | 3 | 1 | 8.2 | 73.8 | 3 TD passes |
| Wk 11 | W 41-19@ Texas State | 23/34 | 471 | 4 | 2 | 13.9 | 96.5 | Season-high 471 yds |
| Wk 12 | W 24-10vs South Alabama | 27/44 | 311 | 1 | 0 | 7.1 | 87.3 | |
| Wk 13 | W 31-21vs Troy | 29/41 | 368 | 2 | 0 | 9.0 | 84.5 | Clean 2-TD game |
| Wk 14 | W 34-7@ Georgia Southern | 20/32 | 346 | 3 | 1 | 10.8 | 75.6 | 3 TD passes |
 Bowl | L 16-27vs San José State | 14/29 | 208 | 2 | 1 | 7.2 | 21.1 | |
| Total | 307/486 | 4368 | 28 | 12 | 9.0 | — |
Week 5 · 2015
L 33-41
vs Liberty · neutral site
The plays that mattered most
Pass Profile · Completions by yards gained (PBP)
Adjusted ANY/A, sack rate, and where the yards came from
Totals here are the box score's. Play-by-play lists 478 passing plays (302 completions) against the box score's 486 attempts (307 completions), and the depth buckets use play-by-play.
Adjusted ANY/A
8.1022 of 198 QBsSack rate
6.0%100 of 198 QBsSacked on 6.0% of dropbacks (100 of 198) — and still 22 of 198 in Adjusted ANY/A.
Adjusted ANY/A uses full-season box-score totals (attempts, yards, TDs, INTs); sack rate is play-by-play-derived.
Short
0–9 ydsMiddle
10–19 ydsDeep
20+ ydsOverall 63.2% completion on 486 attempts · 71 deep completions averaging 33.6 yds.
Is he a different quarterback when it matters
Each situation vs his own 2015 baseline
+55
percentile points better on third down or later
Deltas are vs. this player’s own season baseline, never a league average. League sack rate by down is shown as context because sack attribution isn’t incompletion-denominated.
2 seasons under Trent Miles — 7-18 over that span.
Splits · Per-game
2015 season · 13 games
Home vs Road
| YDS/g | TD/g | YPA | INT/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home5g | 291 | 1.6 | 7.2 | 0.6 |
| Road6g | 385 | 2.5 | 10.4 | 1.2 |
First half vs Second half
| YDS/g | TD/g | YPA | INT/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks 1-77g | 310 | 1.9 | 8.7 | 1.0 |
| Weeks 8+6g | 366 | 2.5 | 9.7 | 0.8 |
Supporting cast · Scheme
Staff and system around the player
Head Coach
Trent Miles
Pass share
55.9%
496 pass / 392 run
Plays / game
68.3
13 games
Scheme: Pass-leaning.
Player standing · 2015
First team in his league at the position.
How it ended
Two seasons at Georgia State, 7,651 passing yards, a first-team All-Conference season (2015) — the college career is complete.
Trophy case · Confirmed honors
What the selectors said
ALL-SUN BELT · 1ST TEAM
All-Sun Belt 1st team (2015)
