CFB Zeitgeist Score
41
Mid-pack in the position cohort. Carried by sacks at the 63rd percentile.
Ryan Williams broke the internet as a true freshman. His sophomore year cooled off. Now he's a preseason All-American with a Heisman number — and because he reclassified, Alabama gets him for two more years before he can even leave.
As a true freshman in 2024 he was a national sensation: 48 catches, 865 yards, eight touchdowns, the highlight every Saturday. The 2025 sophomore line was quieter — 49 catches, 689 yards, four scores — the kind of step back that, for a player this hyped, becomes the whole storyline. The voters didn't blink: he's a preseason first-team All-American across nearly every outlet and a live Heisman candidate entering 2026. The detail that reframes everything is his age. Williams reclassified up to sign a year early, so he's a junior who won't be draft-eligible until 2027 — Alabama's clear No. 1 target with a runway almost no star his age has. The forward stakes are simple: the bounce-back season that turns a quieter sophomore year back into a generational trajectory. For Williams, 2026 is a contention year, not a farewell.
How he plays
Williams is a vertical separator — a slim, wiry frame (listed around 6-0, 180) carrying genuine track speed (he's run 10.49 in the 100 meters). Our play-by-play backs the big-play profile: 78th-percentile yards-per-catch, 85th-percentile EPA per target, a 72nd-percentile explosive-catch rate — the chunk-play element of a true downfield weapon, and a 78th-percentile catch rate on top of it. Scouts (Ourlads/draft profiles) credit the "initial burst and long speed to easily separate from DBs" and consistent ball-tracking over his shoulder. The honest edge is the one his sophomore tape raised: the drop rate ticked up, and evaluators note "his hands need to improve." He's a take-the-top-off vertical threat who also works the intermediate level — and at his age, the polish is supposed to come.
2026 Outlook
Returning to Missouri State for 2026
2026 Depth chart
Returning starter
Wide receiver · Missouri State · editorial
Returning around him
- Transfer portal: +8 net (19 in / 11 out)
2026 Award watch
- Biletnikoff
Missouri State · Last season: 7-6 · Talent rank #129 · 2026 recruiting class #133
DL · MISSOURI STATE · CONFERENCE USA
Ryan Williams
- 4
- #99
- 6-4 | 270 lb
- Pearland, TX
Heisman Heat
#13817
<1% win probability
Fan Belief
Awaiting
Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.
Respect Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
Reality Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
ACCOLADE PROBABILITY
Heisman
<1%
TOP DEFENSE AWARD
Nagurski
—
CONSENSUS
All-American
—
Player Standing · 17 rungs
Tier 0 · Not on teamR01 · Scout team / redshirt
Scout team / redshirt. Developing behind the depth chart.
Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex
Career Arc
HS
Recruit
★★★
CFB
College
3 teams
NFL
NFL Draft
—
Heisman futures · live sportsbook odds
#21 in market ▼ from #18 · 6 books
Identity & Role
The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.
Recruiting Pedigree
How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.
| Class | Profile | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 3-star | 0.8204 | No. 1991 recruit | HighSchool | Colorado |
| 2015 | 3-star | 0.8606 | No. 698 recruit | HighSchool |
Transfer Arc
Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.
| Season | Move | Context |
|---|---|---|
| No transfer portal moves on file for this player. | ||
Heisman Lens · 2023 Season · Final
Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.
HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 19Heisman Futures
Not yet listed on major futures markets.
No achievements unlocked yet this season.
Selector Grid · 2025
AP—
FWAA—
AFCA—
WCFF—
SN—
SI—
Selector recognition fills in once the major honors lists (AP, FWAA, AFCA, Walter Camp, Sporting News, SI) are scraped and ingested.
NIL · Recruiting · NFL Draft
Market value, pedigree & pro outcome
Recruit stars
★★★☆☆
to Colorado
Composite
0.8204
#1991 national
Today’s Hot-Take
The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.
Anti-Take
PENDINGThe contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.
The Room on Ryan Williams
Fan sentiment · Awaiting signal
The Room reads fan conversation around a player — who’s talking, what they believe, and how that shifts. It publishes once weekly volume rebuilds; for most players that’s in-season, when game-week chatter spikes.
Cohort divergence map
Cohort divergence reads how different fanbases talk about this player. Returns once weekly mentions clear the publish floor.
Rival Radar
How rival fanbases talk about Ryan Williams
No rival-bucket mentions in the current season.
Signature Story
Awaiting candidate metric
He hasn't written his page yet — we'll start filling it in when there are enough snaps to rank against his peers.
Signature Moment
No signature moment on the ledger yet.
Returns once this player puts together a multi-game body of work — single-game flashes alone don't clear the bar.
Season Pace · Projection
Where the defensive totals stand
Through 6g
11Tackles
1.5Tackles for loss
1Sacks
Per game
2Tackles
0.2Tackles for loss
0.2Sacks
Projected (13g)
24Tackles
3.2Tackles for loss
2.2Sacks
To hit 80-tackle season (currently 11): needs 9.9/game over remaining 7.
To hit 100-tackle season (currently 11): needs 12.7/game over remaining 7.
To hit 6-sack season (currently 1): needs 0.7/game over remaining 7.
To hit 10-sack season (currently 1): needs 1.3/game over remaining 7.
Why this is a rare defensive case
The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.
Ryan Williams is trying to climb the steepest award hill in college football: a defensive candidacy. The hook is the disruption profile on Missouri State's defense, with 1.0 sacks, 1.5 tackles for loss, and -- interceptions through the current loaded season. For a defender, the question is never just production; it is whether elite disruption and team context can become nationally undeniable.
2025 Season · Final
Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.
Last season
DEF season snapshot
2025 season snapshot | final
2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Player identity What kind of player is this?
30-second read
What kind of player is this?
Defensive contributor against FBS defenders.
2025 Season · Final
2025 season snapshot | final
Tackling & Disruption
TOT
11 44th
SOLO
6 43rd
TFL
1.5 64th
SACK
1.0 82nd
QBH
1 44th
Coverage & Takeaways
PD
1 43rd
Game Log · Week-by-week
2025 season · 6 games
| Wk | Opp | TKL | SOLO | TFL | SACK | INT | PD | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | L 13-73@ USC | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | 0 | |
| Wk 2 | W 21-20@ Marshall | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | 0 | Season-high 4 tackles |
| Wk 3 | L 10-28vs SMU | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | 0 | |
| Wk 5 | L 22-27vs Western Kentucky | 2 | 1 | 1.5 | 1.0 | — | 0 | |
| Wk 7 | W 22-20@ Middle Tennessee | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | 1 | |
| Wk 12 | W 38-24vs UTEP | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | 0 | |
| Total | 11 | 6 | 1.5 | 1.0 | — | 1 |
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score
Traditional history
Traditional Stats
Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.
Season context · Team result + system
2022Colorado1-11HC: Mike Sanford Jr. · Balanced, slow tempo
2023Western Kentucky8-5HC: Tyson Helton · Pass-leaning
2025Missouri State7-6HC: Ryan Beard · Balanced
| Season | Team | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Missouri State | 11 | 6 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 1 | -- | -- |
| 2023 | Western Kentucky | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -- | -- | -- |
| 2022 | Colorado | 7 | 5 | 1.0 | 0.0 | -- | -- | -- |
| Career | 3 loaded seasons | 21 | 12 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 1 | -- | -- |
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context
Advanced metrics second
Advanced Metrics
Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.
TFL, sacks, and QB hurries are grouped together because defensive Heisman cases are usually built on visible havoc, not on tackle counts alone.
Pass breakups, interceptions, and forced fumbles matter because national awards voters respond to plays that change possessions and highlight reels.
Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.
The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.
Open full stat explorer
| Group | Metric | Value | Rank | Pct | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Defense | Total tackles | 11 | #2749/4942 | 44th pct | Volumevs FBS DEF |
| Defense | TFL | 1.5 | #1771/4972 | 64th pct | Disruptionvs FBS DEF |
| Defense | Sacks | 1.0 | #872/4972 | 82nd pct | Disruptionvs FBS DEF |
| Defense | Pass breakups | 1 | #1241/2184 | 43rd pct | Coveragevs FBS DEF |
| Defense | QB hurries | 1 | #1051/1878 | 44th pct | Disruptionvs FBS DEF |
| Defense | Solo tackles | 6 | #2592/4584 | 43rd pct | Volumevs FBS DEF |
Player Standing
Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION
On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION · Rung None of 16
Why he’s here
Standing classification populates when honors, Heisman, and roster signals all align.
What moves him up
What moves him down
Accolade streams
Status—Awaiting tracker
The Lombardi award tracker integrates per-week probability once a dedicated scraper for this award lands. Confirmed past winners and finalists for this player will surface here.
Splits · Per-game
2025 season · 6 games
Home vs Road
| TKL/g | TFL/g | SACK/g | PD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home3g | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.0 |
| Road3g | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 |
Win vs Loss
| TKL/g | TFL/g | SACK/g | PD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wins3g | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 |
| Losses3g | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.0 |
First half vs Second half
| TKL/g | TFL/g | SACK/g | PD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks 1-75g | 2.0 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| Weeks 8+1g | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.
Savant · Box-rate percentiles
Where this profile ranks vs the DL cohort
41Mid-pack
Concern: tackles (5th).
Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.
Advanced Savant · DL · 2023
Percentile Card
Advanced opponent-adjusted percentile bars are coming soon for this player.
P4G5All FBS
Advanced Savant
Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.
Advanced opponent-adjusted metrics are coming soon for this player. Selected cohort: P4.
Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match
Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile
Ryan WilliamsMissouri StateTyler MartinMassachusetts· 46% simMichael MontgomerySouthern Miss· 45% simTJ DotteryOle Miss· 45% sim
Sacks
QB hurries
Passes defended
Tackles for loss
Solo tackles
Tackles
Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.
Player DNA
The Two-Gap Base
Stout at the point of attack; controls his gap and stacks blocks.
IDL
His 2025 production profile sits closest to Tre'Vonn Rybka’s 2024 season.
Tre'Vonn Rybka
94%match
#2
Mikah Coleman
88%
#3
Mikah Coleman
87%
#4
Ramon Puryear
87%
#5
Trajan Jeffcoat
86%
Matches Tre'Vonn on
Sack rate
Weight
TFL rate
Not enough data yet for this comparison.
As a senior, his production profile tracks closest to Tre'Vonn Rybka's senior season at Kentucky (2024).
Tre'Vonn Rybka
92%match
#2
Bam Brima
89%
#3
Demitri Washington
88%
#4
Tyler Batty
All-Big 12
88%
#5
Lebbeus Overton
86%
Matches Tre'Vonn on
Class year
Height
Sack rate
Supporting Cast · Scheme
Staff and system around the player
Head Coach
Ryan Beard
Pass share
51.9%
433 pass / 401 run
Plays / game
64.2
13 games
OL sack rate (allowed)
13.0%
307 dropbacks · PBP
Scheme: Balanced.
Coaching Lineage · 2022–2025
1 coach2022
—
Missouri State
2023
—
Missouri State
2025era →
Ryan Beard
Missouri State
Played his entire career under Ryan Beard.
Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster
Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.
HometownPearland, TX
Height6'4"
Weight270 lb
Class4
PositionDL
Jersey99
No fields populated yet.
No fields populated yet.
Current teamMissouri State
ConferenceConference USA
Joined2025
Career arc4 season(s)
Trophy Case · Detail
Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.
No formal honors on the ledger yet
All-America, all-conference, player-of-the-week, watch-list, and postseason awards land here when they're earned. The absence is the signal: most players never collect formal honors, and that's its own kind of context.
Honors Timeline
Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.
| Season | Honor | Scope | Team / Selector | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No formal honors on the ledger yet. All-America, all-conference, weekly awards, watch lists, and postseason trophies land here when they’re earned. | ||||
Heisman By Year
Modeled rank and official finish by season.
| Season | Team | Role | Latest Model | Forecast | Win | Finalist | Official Finish | Points | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Western Kentucky | DL4 | #13817 | #13586 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W19 snapshot | Conference USA |
| 2022 | Colorado | DL4 | #14530 | #14740 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W20 snapshot | Pac-12 |
| 2021 | Colorado | DL4 | #13227 | #13230 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W20 snapshot | Pac-12 |
Roster Timeline
Team, conference, and class by season.
| Season | Team | Conference | Pos | Class | Bio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Missouri State | Conference USA | DL | 4 | No. 99 | 6-4 | 270 lb | Pearland, TX |
| 2023 | Western Kentucky | Conference USA | DL | 4 | No. 99 | 6-4 | 270 lb | Pearland, TX |
| 2022 | Colorado | Pac-12 | DL | 4 | No. 99 | 6-4 | 270 lb | Pearland, TX |
| 2021 | Colorado | Pac-12 | DL | 4 | No. 99 | 6-4 | 270 lb | Pearland, TX |