The Zeitgeist List · Rivalries

Carolina-State

NC State41-60-5North Carolina
National Program I#41 of 138–National Program II#54 of 138–
See both programs’ full 91-year Zeitgeist History, side by side →
Next meeting: Sat Nov 28 · time TBA, 24 days away.

4 players crossed straight to the rival since 2021 — the turncoat ledger →

North Carolina leads the all-time series 60-41-5. They've met 106 times since 1902. NC State has won the last 5.

Current season

Vegas win totals and transfer-portal swing right now, plus what fans are actually saying — not history, this year.

NC State
Win total
6.5
Vegas over/under
Transfer portal
+1
portal net points (weighted) · raw ledger: -9
What fans are saying · rivalry
One fan thinks the intensity of the games exceeds typical conference matchups
I love playing ECU. I fucking HATE them and losing to them is brutal, but that’s what makes college football great. This game actually means something
Verified verbatim
North Carolina
Transfer portal
-3
portal net points (weighted) · raw ledger: -47
What fans are saying · program direction
fans think the team needs to out-recruit its rivals for success
Exactly, which is why although we're better this year I'm not overly optimistic for the future. Not until we actually get some really good recruiting classes.
Verified verbatim

Stature & the series, 1902–2025

Both programs’ standing over time, each line named at its end, with every meeting beneath — read down to see who was bigger and who won. (Stature is each program’s season-by-season standing on the Zeitgeist List, 1936–present — one score blending on-field performance, program achievement, and roster talent.)

program stature over timeNC StateNorth Carolinaevery meeting (bar height = margin; dark: NC State won, gray: North Carolina won)192019401960198020002020

The identity war

NC State has been the more pass-heavy program more often than not.

Across 23 seasons of real play-level data (2004–2026), NC State led 14 and North Carolina led 9.

more passmore runNC StateNorth Carolina2004200620082010201220142016201820202022202420262021NC State 11.7 ptsNC State won 34-302007NC State 10.8 ptsNC State won 31-272014North Carolina 7.8 ptsNC State won 35-7
Source team_season_stats (CFBD season totals) · pass rate = passAttempts ÷ (passAttempts + rushingAttempts)

North Carolina once won 9 in a row. The biggest win was NC State by 45 in 1988. The biggest crowd, 62,000, was in 2012.

The coaching duels

Earle Edwards vs James Hickey3-5
Chuck Amato vs John Bunting2-4
Dave Doeren vs Larry Fedora4-2
Beattie Feathers vs Carl Snavely0-5
Dick Sheridan vs Mack Brown5-0
Mike O'Cain vs Mack Brown0-5

The draft ledger

Every NFL Draft pick either program has produced since the modern era began, decade by decade.

Draft picks
117-149
North Carolina leads
1st-rounders
17-24
Since
1967
First CFBD-carried draft class
NC StateNorth Carolina
1960s1-2
1970s10-11
1980s15-21
1990s24-37
2000s27-26
2010s29-33
2020s11-19

Best picks, either side

2006Mario Williams Defensive End · Houston TexansRd 1, pick 1#1 overall
2017Mitchell Trubisky Quarterback · Chicago BearsRd 1, pick 2#2 overall
1981Lawrence Taylor Linebacker · New York GiantsRd 1, pick 2#2 overall
2002Julius Peppers Defensive End · Carolina PanthersRd 1, pick 2#2 overall
2024Drake Maye Quarterback · New England PatriotsRd 1, pick 3#3 overall
1975Ken Huff Offensive Guard · Baltimore ColtsRd 1, pick 3#3 overall
2004Philip Rivers Quarterback · New York GiantsRd 1, pick 4#4 overall
2018Bradley Chubb Defensive End · Denver BroncosRd 1, pick 5#5 overall

Recent meetings

Gate premium

NC State1.09×its own average home crowd

A modest gap over a small sample of games — real, but not a dramatic swing.

2025NC State42-19
2024NC State35-30
2023NC State39-20North Carolina — North Carolina routed by 19
2022NC State30-27
2021NC State34-30
2020North Carolina48-21
2019North Carolina41-10
2018NC State34-28
2017NC State33-21
2016NC State28-21North Carolina — North Carolina favored by 10.0
2015North Carolina45-34
2014NC State35-7North Carolina — North Carolina routed by 28
2013North Carolina27-19
2012North Carolina43-35

Every meeting since 2018, play by play

Each line is NC State’s chance to win through that meeting. NC State is 4-0 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter. The loudest meeting for fans was 2022: roaring.

2025NC State 42-19NC State won 42-19 vs North Carolina. Chance to win started at 77%, low 77%, high better than 99%.Steady
2024NC State 35-30NC State won 35-30 at North Carolina. Chance to win started at 46%, low 22%, high better than 99%.Steady
2023NC State 39-20NC State won 39-20 vs North Carolina. Chance to win started at 43%, low 43%, high 99%.Steady
2022NC State 30-27NC State won 30-27 at North Carolina. Chance to win started at 30%, low 29%, high better than 99%.Roaring
2021NC State 34-30NC State won 34-30 vs North Carolina. Chance to win started at 68%, low 8%, high better than 99%.
2020North Carolina 48-21NC State lost 21-48 at North Carolina. Chance to win started at 15%, low under 1%, high 17%.
2019North Carolina 41-10NC State lost 10-41 vs North Carolina. Chance to win started at 25%, low under 1%, high 58%.
2018NC State 34-28NC State won 34-28 at North Carolina. Chance to win started at 72%, low 15%, high better than 99%.
“Never doubted it the entire time 😅”
An NC State fan
Read a quote from each meeting
  • 2025
    “As a neutral that is insanely soft.”
    A fan of another team

Meetings with their own story page

11 meetings in our archive, 2015 to 2025.