Alex Mortensen

Head coach · UAB
2nd season · since 2025

At UAB6-8since 2025 · 4-4 this seasonHot seatCool3% · 69th of 132 jobsLast gameL 10-30at South Florida · Oct 31Nextvs CharlotteSat Nov 7 · 3:30 pm ET
This week · as of Wed Nov 4

4-4, on track for 6-6 in the regular season.

Now

Career arc

This week Wed Nov 4

  • Last gameL 10-30 at South Florida Sat Oct 31
  • This season4-4
  • On track for6-6 regular season
  • Nextvs. Charlotte Sat Nov 7
  • Stature102nd of 138 FBS programs

What the result changed

  • Playoff odds 0.1% → <0.1% CFB Zeitgeist forecast, before and after

Saturday: vs. Charlotte

Sat Nov 7, 3:30 pm ET ESPN+ · Charlotte is 1-7 · First meeting between Mortensen and Tim Albin as head coaches · UAB’s chance to win: 85% (the site’s model)

No headlines named him in the last 7 days

What they are talking about, week and season

Offense: 121st of 138 per play. Defense: 53rd.

Offense, per play121stPassing offense130thDefense, per play53rdDefense, big plays allowed2ndWorstBest
Offense, per play121st of 138Passing offense130th of 138Defense, per play53rd of 138Defense, big plays allowed2nd of 138WorstBest
Through 8 games. Each tick is an FBS team, adjusted for opponent strength (CFB Zeitgeist model); the dot is UAB. The other two rows are where UAB stands furthest from the middle. Early-season numbers move a lot.

4 games left

  1. Sat Nov 7vs. Charlotte (1-7)ESPN+85%
  2. Sat Nov 14at Temple (2-6)ESPN+61%
  3. Sat Nov 21vs. UTSA (7-1)26%
  4. Sat Nov 28at North Texas (6-2)29%

Percent: UAB’s chance to win, from the site’s model. Records are through today. Networks as announced; the rest are set closer to kickoff.

How the season got here

Where UAB stood among 138 FBS programs by stature after each game (1st is the highest; the CFB Zeitgeist ledger).

95th101st107thPreseason103rdIllinois L 23-42Illinois L 23-42L 23-42Illinois101stUL Monroe W 26-20UL Monroe W 26-20W 26-20UL Monroe101stLouisiana L 14-21Louisiana L 14-21L 14-21Louisiana99thNavy W 24-20Navy W 24-20W 24-20Navy99thSamford W 33-14Samford W 33-14W 33-14Samford100thMemphis L 13-38Memphis L 13-38L 13-38Memphis101stEast Carolina W 30-17East Carolina W 30-17W 30-17East Carolina102ndSouth Florida L 10-30South Florida L 10-30L 10-30South Florida102nd
  1. Oct 26–Nov 1L 10-30 at South Florida0 headlines
  2. Oct 19–25No game0 headlines
  3. Oct 12–18W 30-17 vs. East Carolina0 headlines
  4. Oct 5–11L 13-38 at Memphis0 headlines
  5. Sep 28–Oct 4W 33-14 vs. Samford1 headline · 82nd of 138
  6. Sep 21–27 · rebuiltW 24-20 vs. Navy0 headlines

Each week as this page showed it at the time. Weeks marked rebuilt came before this page existed: they were built afterward from only what was known by the end of that week.

Watch the biggest plays from UAB’s games, ranked by how much each moved the chance to win.

Hot seat

See every job →

This season

3%chance he’s out by the end of this seasonCool69th-hottest of 132 FBS jobs
0%50%+

Our hot-seat model, on his record so far, the win chances for every game he has left, and his contract (a bigger buyout, relative to pay, makes a change costlier). Ranked against the 132 FBS head coaches with 3+ games this season.

His first rated season here.

His hot seat, week by week

The chance he’s out by the end of that season, as it stood after every week of his tenure here, by today’s model.

BoilingHotWarmCool20262026, week 3 (3 games in): 3%, 76th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2026, week 4 (4 games in): 3%, 79th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 5 (5 games in): 3%, 83rd-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 6 (6 games in): 4%, 77th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 7 (7 games in): 3%, 80th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 8 (7 games in): 3%, 76th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 9 (8 games in): 3%, 74th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 10 (8 games in): 3%, 69th-hottest of 132 FBS jobsnow

He took over during the 2025 season (6 games); that year is unrated, since each season counts against whoever started it.

What drives his number

The biggest factors, each against the typical FBS job today.

  • ▼ Cooler
    Year 1 · tenure, which this model overrates
    (why?)

    Tenure is one of this model’s strongest inputs, but its weight was set when retirements like Nick Saban’s and Bob Stoops’ still counted as being pushed out, so it overstates how much tenure matters.

  • ▲ Hotter
    4-4, outscored by 29
  • ▲ Hotter
    2-4 over his previous season here

What happened to coaches like him, 2004–2025

A different comparison: past coaches, not today’s, grouped by one fact at a time. Neither line knows the games he has left or his contract, so they can sit above or below his chance.

Were 4-4 after 8 games
8% pushed out over results · of 504 coaches
Were in year 1, after 8 games
1% pushed out over results · of 521 coaches
The outcome
Pushed out over results — a firing, forced resignation, mutual parting or non-renewal, each read case by case. Leaving for a better job, or retiring on his own terms, doesn’t count.
Buyout
No figure on file for this coach. The salary database predates the last coaching carousel; a name mismatch is suppressed rather than misattributed.

How good is this number? Checked on every FBS coach from 2010 to 2025, with its percentages calibrated each season on earlier years only: they track what happened — coaches it put near 25% were out about a quarter of the time — and a version pricing the games left with the previous season’s ratings ranked jobs as well as the ranking this page used before. Each week it learns from coaches who were still on the job at that point, so a firing during the season counts. In the Boiling zone it has run a few points high. Every job, and the method.