Alonzo Carter

Head coach · Sacramento State
1st season · since 2026

At school2-7since 2026 · 2-7 this seasonHot seatCool5% · 54th of 132 jobsLast gameW 31-10vs Kent State · Oct 31Nextvs ToledoWed Nov 4 · 7 pm ET · CBS Sports Network
This week · as of Wed Nov 4

2-7, on track for 2-10 in the regular season.

Now

Career arc

This week Wed Nov 4

  • Last gameW 31-10 vs. Kent State Fri Oct 30
  • This season2-7
  • Hot seat5% 54th of 132
  • On track for2-10 regular season
  • Nextvs. Toledo Wed Nov 4
  • Stature130th of 138 FBS programs

Win and he’s at 3%. Lose and he’s at 5%.

vs. Toledo, Wed Nov 4, 7 pm ET CBS Sports Network · Toledo is 6-2 · First meeting between Carter and Mike Jacobs as head coaches · Sacramento State’s chance to win: 4% (the site’s model)

CoolWarmHotBoilingIf Sacramento State wins: 3%, 67th of 132Now: 5%If Sacramento State loses: 5%, 54th of 1320%50%+
CoolWarmHotBoiling0%50%+
  • If Sacramento State wins: 3%, 67th of 132
  • Now: 5%
  • If Sacramento State loses: 5%, 54th of 132
His chance of being out after the season, now and after Saturday. Each tick is an FBS head coach’s number today; ranks are against today’s field. From the site’s hot-seat model.

Is he getting fired?

5% chance he’s out after the season · 54th of 132 FBS head coaches · Cool

Coolunder 10%Warm10–20%Hot20–35%Boiling35% upNow9% had they lost9% had they lostLoss 5%Win 3%2%2%2%2%3%5%6%7%9%5%Pre1L at Eastern MichiganL2W vs. Mississippi Valley StateW3L at Fresno StateL4L vs. North Dakota StateL5L vs. MassachusettsL6L at Bowling GreenL7L vs. OhioL8L at Ball StateL9W vs. Kent StateW10Chance to win vs. Toledo4%11Chance to win at Central Michigan22%12Chance to win at Hawai'i19%Game number. Under each game: the result, or his team’s chance to win it
CoolWarmHotBoilingNow9% had they lost9% had they lostLoss 5%Win 3%2%5%Pre36912Game
Dark line: his number after each game; a small dot just before a game is where it stood at kickoff, after other results moved it. Gray: where it could go, 8 seasons in 10 (darker, the middle half). The hollow dot: had his last game gone the other way. From the site’s hot-seat model.

If he finishes…

Bar: how likely that finish isNumber: his chance of being out

  1. 2-105%
  2. 3-93%
  3. 4-82%
Why his number is where it is

Our hot-seat model, on his record so far, the win chances for every game he has left, and his contract (a bigger buyout, relative to pay, makes a change costlier). Ranked against the 132 FBS head coaches with 3+ games this season.

His first rated season here.

His hot seat, week by week

The chance he’s out by the end of that season, as it stood after every week of his tenure here, by today’s model.

BoilingHotWarmCool20262026, week 3 (4 games in): 3%, 74th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2026, week 4 (5 games in): 5%, 61st-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 5 (5 games in): 5%, 65th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 6 (6 games in): 6%, 58th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 7 (7 games in): 7%, 51st-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 8 (8 games in): 9%, 47th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 9 (9 games in): 5%, 58th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 10 (9 games in): 5%, 54th-hottest of 132 FBS jobsnow

What drives his number

The biggest factors, each against the typical FBS job today.

  • ▲ Hotter
    2-7, outscored by 120
  • ▼ Cooler
    Year 1 · tenure, which this model overrates
    (why?)

    Tenure is one of this model’s strongest inputs, but its weight was set when retirements like Nick Saban’s and Bob Stoops’ still counted as being pushed out, so it overstates how much tenure matters.

  • ▼ Cooler
    No previous seasons here to judge him on

What happened to coaches like him, 2004–2025

A different comparison: past coaches, not today’s, grouped by one fact at a time. Neither line knows the games he has left or his contract, so they can sit above or below his chance.

Were 2-7 after 9 games
19% pushed out over results · of 218 coaches
Were in year 1, after 9 games
1% pushed out over results · of 518 coaches
The outcome
Pushed out over results — a firing, forced resignation, mutual parting or non-renewal, each read case by case. Leaving for a better job, or retiring on his own terms, doesn’t count.
Buyout
No figure on file for this coach. The salary database predates the last coaching carousel; a name mismatch is suppressed rather than misattributed.

How good is this number? Checked on every FBS coach from 2010 to 2025, with its percentages calibrated each season on earlier years only: they track what happened — coaches it put near 25% were out about a quarter of the time — and a version pricing the games left with the previous season’s ratings ranked jobs as well as the ranking this page used before. Each week it learns from coaches who were still on the job at that point, so a firing during the season counts. In the Boiling zone it has run a few points high. Every job, and the method.

No headlines named him in the last 7 days

What they are talking about, week and season

Offense: 137th of 138 per play. Defense: 121st.

Offense, per play137thRunning offense136thDefense, per play121stPass defense126thWorstBest
Offense, per play137th of 138Running offense136th of 138Defense, per play121st of 138Pass defense126th of 138WorstBest
Through 9 games. Each tick is an FBS team, adjusted for opponent strength (CFB Zeitgeist model); the dot is Sacramento State. The other two rows are where Sacramento State stands furthest from the middle. Early-season numbers move a lot.

3 games left

  1. Wed Nov 4vs. Toledo (6-2)CBS Sports Network4%
  2. Wed Nov 11at Central Michigan (3-5)ESPNU22%
  3. Sat Nov 28at Hawai'i (2-6)MW+19%

Percent: Sacramento State’s chance to win, from the site’s model. Records are through today. Networks as announced; the rest are set closer to kickoff.

How the season got here

Where Sacramento State stood among 138 FBS programs by stature after each game (1st is the highest; the CFB Zeitgeist ledger).

123rd129th135thPreseason127thMississippi Valley State W 52-0Mississippi Valley State W 52-0W 52-0Mississippi V…126thEastern Michigan L 17-28Eastern Michigan L 17-28L 17-28Eastern Michi…127thFresno State L 3-49Fresno State L 3-49L 3-49Fresno State127thNorth Dakota State L 10-31North Dakota State L 10-31L 10-31North Dakota …128thMassachusetts L 6-35Massachusetts L 6-35L 6-35Massachusetts129thBowling Green L 10-38Bowling Green L 10-38L 10-38Bowling Green129thOhio L 7-48Ohio L 7-48L 7-48Ohio129thBall State L 17-34Ball State L 17-34L 17-34Ball State132ndKent State W 31-10Kent State W 31-10W 31-10Kent State130th
  1. Oct 26–Nov 1W 31-10 vs. Kent State1 headline · 87th of 138
  2. Oct 19–25L 17-34 at Ball State0 headlines
  3. Oct 12–18L 7-48 vs. Ohio0 headlines
  4. Oct 5–11L 10-38 at Bowling Green1 headline · 83rd of 138
  5. Sep 28–Oct 4No game0 headlines
  6. Sep 21–27 · rebuiltL 6-35 vs. Massachusetts1 headline · 83rd of 138

Each week as this page showed it at the time. Weeks marked rebuilt came before this page existed: they were built afterward from only what was known by the end of that week.

Watch the biggest plays from Sacramento State’s games, ranked by how much each moved the chance to win.