Brent Venables

Head coach · Oklahoma
5th season · since 2022

At Oklahoma36-24since 2022 · 4-4 this seasonHot seatCool10% · 39th of 132 jobsLast gameL 25-42vs South Carolina · Oct 31Nextat FloridaSat Nov 7 · 7:45 pm ET · SEC Network
This week · as of Wed Nov 4

4-4, on track for 5-7 in the regular season.

Now

Career arc

Stature score reached, by season of his head-coaching careerOklahomaTexasTexasOklahoma StateOklahoma StateDynastythe sport's summitBlue Bloodpermanent top tierPower Programperennial contenderNational Programrespectable, streakyOklahoma when he took over: 75.6 (Power Program I), its final 2021 readingtook overOklahoma, 2022: 6-7, Power Program IOklahoma, 2022: 6-7, Power Program I20226-7Oklahoma, 2023: 10-3, Power Program I202310-3Oklahoma, 2024: 6-7, Power Program I20246-7Oklahoma, 2025: 10-3, Power Program I202510-3Oklahoma, 2026: 4-4, Power Program IOklahoma, 2026: 4-4, Power Program I20264-4-9.6best: 2022gray dashed: rival programs · ○ the program when he took over · Dashed segments are program changes — spacing is not proportional to calendar time

Bowls and playoffs: 0-4

2022Cheez-It BowlL 32-352023Alamo BowlL 24-382024Armed Forces BowlL 20-212025CFP first roundL 24-34

This week Wed Nov 4

  • Last gameL 25-42 vs. South Carolina Sat Oct 31
  • This season4-4
  • Hot seat9.5% 39th of 132
  • On track for5-7 regular season
  • Nextat Florida Sat Nov 7
  • Stature8th of 138 FBS programs

What the result changed

  • Playoff odds 13% → 7% CFB Zeitgeist forecast, before and after

Win and he’s at 6%. Lose and he’s at 11%.

at Florida, Sat Nov 7, 7:45 pm ET SEC Network · No. 25 Florida is 5-3 · Venables vs. Jon Sumrall: 1-0 · Oklahoma’s chance to win: 29% (the site’s model)

CoolWarmHotBoilingIf Oklahoma wins: 6%, 49th of 132Now: 9.5%If Oklahoma loses: 11%, 35th of 1320%50%+
CoolWarmHotBoiling0%50%+
  • If Oklahoma wins: 6%, 49th of 132
  • Now: 9.5%
  • If Oklahoma loses: 11%, 35th of 132
His chance of being out after the season, now and after Saturday. Each tick is an FBS head coach’s number today; ranks are against today’s field. From the site’s hot-seat model.

Is he getting fired?

9.5% chance he’s out after the season · 39th of 132 FBS head coaches · Cool

Coolunder 10%Warm10–20%Hot20–35%Boiling35% upNow4% had they won4% had they wonLoss 11%Win 6%4%5%5%6%9%5%9%6%10%Pre1W vs. UTEPW2L at MichiganL3W vs. New MexicoW4L at GeorgiaL5W vs. TexasW6L vs. KentuckyL7W at Mississippi StateW8L vs. South CarolinaL9Chance to win at Florida29%10Chance to win vs. Ole Miss24%11Chance to win vs. Texas A&M41%12Chance to win at Missouri27%Game number. Under each game: the result, or his team’s chance to win it
CoolWarmHotBoilingNow4% had they wonLoss 11%Win 6%4%10%Pre368912Game
Dark line: his number after each game; a small dot just before a game is where it stood at kickoff, after other results moved it. Gray: where it could go, 8 seasons in 10 (darker, the middle half). The hollow dot: had his last game gone the other way. From the site’s hot-seat model.

If he finishes…

Bar: how likely that finish isNumber: his chance of being out

  1. 4-814%
  2. 5-78%
  3. 6-65%
  4. 7-52%
Why his number is where it is

Our hot-seat model, on his record so far, the win chances for every game he has left, and his contract (a bigger buyout, relative to pay, makes a change costlier). Ranked against the 132 FBS head coaches with 3+ games this season.

All four of his finished seasons here ended Cool. Now right where 2025 was at this point.

His hot seat, week by week

The chance he’s out by the end of that season, as it stood after every week of his tenure here, by today’s model.

BoilingHotWarmCool202220232024202520262022, week 3 (3 games in): <1%, 120th-hottest of 125 FBS jobs2022, week 4 (4 games in): <1%, 118th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 5 (5 games in): 1%, 107th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 6 (6 games in): 1%, 105th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 7 (7 games in): 1%, 107th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 8 (7 games in): 1%, 105th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 9 (8 games in): <1%, 110th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 10 (9 games in): 1%, 106th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 11 (10 games in): 1%, 102nd-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 12 (11 games in): <1%, 104th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 13 (12 games in): 1%, 99th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 14 (12 games in): 1%, 99th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 15 (12 games in): 1%, 99th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2023, week 3 (3 games in): 1%, 112th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2023, week 4 (4 games in): <1%, 119th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 5 (5 games in): <1%, 119th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 6 (6 games in): <1%, 121st-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 7 (6 games in): <1%, 120th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 8 (7 games in): <1%, 118th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 9 (8 games in): <1%, 112th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 10 (9 games in): <1%, 110th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 11 (10 games in): <1%, 111th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 12 (11 games in): <1%, 112th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 13 (12 games in): <1%, 119th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 14 (12 games in): <1%, 119th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 15 (12 games in): <1%, 119th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2024, week 3 (3 games in): 1%, 76th-hottest of 111 FBS jobs2024, week 4 (4 games in): 2%, 88th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 5 (5 games in): 2%, 93rd-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 6 (5 games in): 2%, 90th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 7 (6 games in): 2%, 83rd-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 8 (7 games in): 2%, 76th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 9 (8 games in): 3%, 73rd-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 10 (9 games in): 2%, 75th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 11 (10 games in): 3%, 71st-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 12 (10 games in): 3%, 71st-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 13 (11 games in): 2%, 79th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 14 (12 games in): 2%, 73rd-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 15 (12 games in): 2%, 73rd-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 16 (12 games in): 2%, 73rd-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2025, week 3 (3 games in): 2%, 81st-hottest of 118 FBS jobs2025, week 4 (4 games in): 1%, 100th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 5 (4 games in): 1%, 97th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 6 (5 games in): 1%, 93rd-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 7 (6 games in): 1%, 95th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 8 (7 games in): 1%, 101st-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 9 (8 games in): 1%, 94th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 10 (9 games in): 1%, 105th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 11 (9 games in): 1%, 107th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 12 (10 games in): <1%, 114th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 13 (11 games in): <1%, 120th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 14 (12 games in): <1%, 125th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 15 (12 games in): <1%, 125th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 16 (12 games in): <1%, 125th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2026, week 3 (3 games in): 6%, 55th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2026, week 4 (4 games in): 9%, 49th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 5 (4 games in): 9%, 49th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 6 (5 games in): 5%, 63rd-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 7 (6 games in): 9%, 49th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 8 (7 games in): 6%, 57th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 9 (8 games in): 9.6%, 43rd-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 10 (8 games in): 9.5%, 39th-hottest of 132 FBS jobsnow

Earlier seasons price the games left with power ratings rebuilt after those seasons ended.

What drives his number

The biggest factors, each against the typical FBS job today.

  • ▼ Cooler
    $36.2M buyout · 4.8× his pay, a multiple among the largest in FBS — costly to move on
  • ▲ Hotter
    Year 5 · tenure, which this model overrates
    (why?)

    Tenure is one of this model’s strongest inputs, but its weight was set when retirements like Nick Saban’s and Bob Stoops’ still counted as being pushed out, so it overstates how much tenure matters.

  • ▲ Hotter
    Power Program program, AP-ranked in the preseason · the bar going in

What happened to coaches like him, 2004–2025

A different comparison: past coaches, not today’s, grouped by one fact at a time. Neither line knows the games he has left or his contract, so they can sit above or below his chance.

Were 4-4 after 8 games
8% pushed out over results · of 504 coaches
Were in years 5-9, after 8 games
14% pushed out over results · of 700 coaches
The outcome
Pushed out over results — a firing, forced resignation, mutual parting or non-renewal, each read case by case. Leaving for a better job, or retiring on his own terms, doesn’t count.
Buyout
$36,158,333 reported, USA Today, Oct. 2025 · 4.8× total pay · a large buyout, which lowers his chance of being let go · without it: 19%

How good is this number? Checked on every FBS coach from 2010 to 2025, with its percentages calibrated each season on earlier years only: they track what happened — coaches it put near 25% were out about a quarter of the time — and a version pricing the games left with the previous season’s ratings ranked jobs as well as the ranking this page used before. Each week it learns from coaches who were still on the job at that point, so a firing during the season counts. In the Boiling zone it has run a few points high. Every job, and the method.

His week

Everything is on the Table”

Brent Venables on Oklahoma's QB

Sports Illustrated headline · Tue Nov 3
Everything's on the table”

Brent Venables on quarterback change

Sooners Wire headline · Tue Nov 3
Oklahoma Sooners · 4,183 views by Wednesday

Dozens of stories this week →

The headlines, Nov 1–4 from many outlets

On the podcasts

Offense: 118th of 138 per play. Defense: 5th.

Offense, per play118thRunning offense131stDefense, per play5thDefense, knocking offenses off schedule3rdWorstBest
Offense, per play118th of 138Running offense131st of 138Defense, per play5th of 138Defense, knocking offenses off schedule3rd of 138WorstBest
Through 8 games. Each tick is an FBS team, adjusted for opponent strength (CFB Zeitgeist model); the dot is Oklahoma. The other two rows are where Oklahoma stands furthest from the middle. Early-season numbers move a lot.

4 games left

  1. Sat Nov 7at Florida (5-3)SEC Network29%
  2. Sat Nov 14vs. Ole Miss (6-2)24%
  3. Sat Nov 21vs. Texas A&M (4-4)41%
  4. Sat Nov 28at Missouri (6-2)27%

Percent: Oklahoma’s chance to win, from the site’s model. Records are through today. Networks as announced; the rest are set closer to kickoff.

How the season got here

Oklahoma has held at 8th of 138 FBS programs by stature after every game this season.

  1. Oct 26–Nov 1L 25-42 vs. South Carolina35 headlines · 19th of 138Oklahoma is unraveling. Here’s the massive price of firing Brent Venables USA Today
  2. Oct 19–25W 23-15 at Mississippi State11 headlines · 42nd of 138Brent Venables shares positive update on Sean Hutton after medical scare Saturday Down South
  3. Oct 12–18L 13-21 vs. Kentucky26 headlines · 15th of 138Oklahoma Puts Limits on Brent Venables’ Safety Net as $63M Contract Comes with Major Terms Yahoo Sports
  4. Oct 5–11W 27-24 vs. Texas19 headlines · 22nd of 138All is Not Well at Oklahoma as HC Brent Venables Takes Dig at His Own Staff Yahoo Sports
  5. Sep 28–Oct 4No game29 headlines · 17th of 138Lincoln Riley, Brent Venables among college football coaches who didn't earn their paychecks in September CBS Sports“As tough as they come”Oklahoma's Brent Venables on John Mateer, Oct 1
  6. Sep 21–27 · rebuiltL 13-41 at Georgia41 headlines · 9th of 138Skip Bayless places Oklahoma's Brent Venables on hot seat with Texas clash looming Yahoo Sports“I'm not there right now”Brent Venables on staff changes after loss, Sep 26

Each week as this page showed it at the time. Weeks marked rebuilt came before this page existed: they were built afterward from only what was known by the end of that week.

Watch the biggest plays from Oklahoma’s games, ranked by how much each moved the chance to win.

Report card

Defense carries it: 76th percentile defense, above the median offense at 63rd.

Oklahoma, every completed season graded against the whole field, then averaged.

Offense

B
of which —63rd
efficiency — 63rd percentile success rate, 2022–25
B67th
Standard-downs success
B-54th
Passing-downs success
B-55th
Trench push (line yards)
B67th
Red-zone scoring rate
B-59th
Power-success (short yardage)
C+46th
Ball security (giveaways per game)

Defense

B+
of which —76th
76th percentile SP+ defense, 2022–25
A+95th
Front-7 havoc
B+74th
Secondary havoc
B+77th
Stuff rate (run defense)
B63rd
Takeaways per game

Each season is his team’s percentile among every team with that stat (the share it beat), averaged over his completed seasons here; a mid-season takeover year and the season in progress aren’t graded. Letters: A+ 90th percentile and up, A 80, B+ 70, B 60, B− 50, C+ 45, C 40, C− 30, D 15, F below.