This week · as of Wed Nov 4

6-2, won 2 straight, on track for 8-4 in the regular season.

Now

Career arc

This week Wed Nov 4

  • Last gameW 30-10 vs. UAB Sat Oct 31
  • This season6-2 won 2 straight
  • On track for8-4 regular season
  • Nextat East Carolina Fri Nov 6
  • Stature67th of 138 FBS programs

What the result changed

  • Playoff odds 0.8% → 1% CFB Zeitgeist forecast, before and after

Friday: at East Carolina

Fri Nov 6, 7:30 pm ET ESPN2 · East Carolina is 4-4 · First meeting between Hartline and Blake Harrell as head coaches · South Florida’s chance to win: 61% (the site’s model)

A few stories this week →

The headlines, Nov 1–4 from a few outlets

Offense: 93rd of 138 per play. Defense: 45th.

Offense, per play93rdOffense, big plays138thDefense, per play45thDefense, big plays allowed4thWorstBest
Offense, per play93rd of 138Offense, big plays138th of 138Defense, per play45th of 138Defense, big plays allowed4th of 138WorstBest
Through 8 games. Each tick is an FBS team, adjusted for opponent strength (CFB Zeitgeist model); the dot is South Florida. The other two rows are where South Florida stands furthest from the middle. Early-season numbers move a lot.

4 games left

  1. Fri Nov 6at East Carolina (4-4)ESPN261%
  2. Thu Nov 12vs. Memphis (7-2)ESPN47%
  3. Sat Nov 21at Florida Atlantic (5-3)71%
  4. Fri Nov 27vs. Tulane (4-4)70%

Percent: South Florida’s chance to win, from the site’s model. Records are through today. Networks as announced; the rest are set closer to kickoff.

How the season got here

Where South Florida stood among 138 FBS programs by stature after each game (1st is the highest; the CFB Zeitgeist ledger).

63rd69th75thPreseason71stFlorida International W 19-9Florida International W 19-9W 19-9Florida Inter…71stArmy W 28-24Army W 28-24W 28-24Army70thDelaware State W 59-17Delaware State W 59-17W 59-17Delaware State70thBowling Green W 14-6Bowling Green W 14-6W 14-6Bowling Green70thTemple L 13-17Temple L 13-17L 13-17Temple69thUTSA L 24-31UTSA L 24-31L 24-31UTSA68thKent State W 29-2Kent State W 29-2W 29-2Kent State68thUAB W 30-10UAB W 30-10W 30-10UAB67th
  1. Oct 26–Nov 1W 30-10 vs. UAB0 headlines
  2. Oct 19–25No game0 headlines
  3. Oct 12–18W 29-2 vs. Kent State0 headlines
  4. Oct 5–11L 24-31 at UTSA4 headlines · 59th of 138“Completely Braindead Moment”: Analyst Slams Brian Hartline’s Pregame Crowd Noise Jab at UTSA After USF’s 31-24 Loss Yahoo Sports
  5. Sep 28–Oct 4L 13-17 vs. Temple0 headlines
  6. Sep 21–27 · rebuiltW 14-6 at Bowling Green0 headlines

Each week as this page showed it at the time. Weeks marked rebuilt came before this page existed: they were built afterward from only what was known by the end of that week.

Watch the biggest plays from South Florida’s games, ranked by how much each moved the chance to win.

Poach watch

This winter

9%chance he leaves this winter for a head-coaching job elsewhere, or an NFL coordinator jobSettled19th-highest of 132 FBS head coaches
0%50%+

Our poach model, on his record so far, the win chances for every game he has left, his program, his pay and his background. Ranked against the 132 FBS head coaches this season. The zone words describe the market’s interest; none of them says he is leaving.

What drives his number

The biggest factors in his profile, each against the typical FBS head coach today. The games he has left are priced into the number, not listed here.

  • ▼ Lower
    His first season at South Florida
  • ▲ Higher
    No record for him here before this season · his first year in the job
  • ▲ Higher
    His team is 6-2, outscoring opponents by 12.5 points a game
How good is this number? It ranks a head coach who leaves for another head-coaching job ahead of one who stays 78 to 82% of the time, and its average came within a point of the share who actually left. What it can’t do

Tested on every FBS head coach from 2012 through 2025, each season scored by a model fit only on the seasons before it. From three games on, given one coach who left for a head-coaching job elsewhere or an NFL coordinator job and one who stayed, it ranked the one who left ahead 79 to 82% of the time; in a season’s first two games, 78%. Its average chance came within a point of the share who actually left. It counts a move a coach makes while he still holds the job; when his school ends it, that doesn’t count, even if another school then hires him.

  • The live number prices the games he has left with the power model’s ratings from this season. The test priced them with each team’s rating from the season before, because ratings made during past seasons were not kept, so this live version could not be replayed.
  • Programs new to FBS have no FBS record before this season in the data it reads, so their coaches are scored without one.
  • It is frozen: it learns nothing from 2026 until a deliberate refit.
  • A coach hired in December needs his background (age, alma mater, the state he was born in) added before his first game, or he shows as not rated.