Casey Woods

Head coach · Missouri State
1st season · since 2026

At school3-5since 2026 · 3-5 this seasonHot seatCool1% · 85th of 132 jobsLast gameW 24-3vs Sam Houston · Oct 28Nextat Florida InternationalSat Nov 7 · 4 pm ET
This week · as of Wed Nov 4

3-5, on track for 4-8 in the regular season.

Now

Career arc

This week Wed Nov 4

  • Last gameW 24-3 vs. Sam Houston Tue Oct 27
  • This season3-5
  • On track for4-8 regular season
  • Nextat Florida International Sat Nov 7
  • Stature128th of 138 FBS programs

Saturday: at Florida International

Sat Nov 7, 4 pm ET ESPN+ · Florida International is 3-5 · First meeting between Woods and Willie Simmons as head coaches · Missouri State’s chance to win: 39% (the site’s model)

His week

Missouri State Bears · 151 views by Wednesday

No headlines named him in the last 7 days

The headlines, Oct 28–Nov 4

What they are talking about, week and season

Offense: 92nd of 138 per play. Defense: 128th.

Offense, per play92ndRunning offense127thDefense, per play128thDefense, opponents' starting field position137thWorstBest
Offense, per play92nd of 138Running offense127th of 138Defense, per play128th of 138Defense, opponents' starting field position137th of 138WorstBest
Through 8 games. Each tick is an FBS team, adjusted for opponent strength (CFB Zeitgeist model); the dot is Missouri State. The other two rows are where Missouri State stands furthest from the middle. Early-season numbers move a lot.

4 games left

  1. Sat Nov 7at Florida International (3-5)ESPN+39%
  2. Sat Nov 14vs. New Mexico State (3-5)ESPN+60%
  3. Sat Nov 21at Jacksonville State (6-2)16%
  4. Sat Nov 28vs. Liberty (7-1)6%

Percent: Missouri State’s chance to win, from the site’s model. Records are through today. Networks as announced; the rest are set closer to kickoff.

How the season got here

Where Missouri State stood among 138 FBS programs by stature after each game (1st is the highest; the CFB Zeitgeist ledger).

122nd128th134thPreseason129thTexas A&M L 0-50Texas A&M L 0-50L 0-50Texas A&M129thLindenwood W 48-14Lindenwood W 48-14W 48-14Lindenwood129thMarshall L 24-30Marshall L 24-30L 24-30Marshall129thSMU L 24-34SMU L 24-34L 24-34SMU129thWestern Kentucky L 13-34Western Kentucky L 13-34L 13-34Western Kentu…128thKennesaw State W 24-21Kennesaw State W 24-21W 24-21Kennesaw State128thDelaware L 38-61Delaware L 38-61L 38-61Delaware128thSam Houston W 24-3Sam Houston W 24-3W 24-3Sam Houston128th
  1. Oct 26–Nov 1W 24-3 vs. Sam Houston1 headline · 87th of 138Why Casey Woods called Missouri State a 'fighting football team' Springfield News-Leader
  2. Oct 19–25L 38-61 at Delaware0 headlines
  3. Oct 12–18W 24-21 vs. Kennesaw State1 headline · 82nd of 138Casey Woods pushes for more Group of Six representation in expanded CFP Springfield News-Leader
  4. Oct 5–11L 13-34 at Western Kentucky1 headline · 83rd of 138
  5. Sep 28–Oct 4No game3 headlines · 70th of 138Casey Woods provides Missouri State football health update before taking on WKU Yahoo Sports
  6. Sep 21–27 · rebuiltL 24-34 at SMU5 headlines · 60th of 138

Each week as this page showed it at the time. Weeks marked rebuilt came before this page existed: they were built afterward from only what was known by the end of that week.

Watch the biggest plays from Missouri State’s games, ranked by how much each moved the chance to win.

Hot seat

See every job →

This season

1%chance he’s out by the end of this seasonCool85th-hottest of 132 FBS jobs
0%50%+

Our hot-seat model, on his record so far, the win chances for every game he has left, and his contract (a bigger buyout, relative to pay, makes a change costlier). Ranked against the 132 FBS head coaches with 3+ games this season.

His first rated season here.

His hot seat, week by week

The chance he’s out by the end of that season, as it stood after every week of his tenure here, by today’s model.

BoilingHotWarmCool20262026, week 3 (3 games in): 1%, 97th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2026, week 4 (4 games in): 1%, 96th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 5 (4 games in): 1%, 96th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 6 (5 games in): 2%, 84th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 7 (6 games in): 2%, 87th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 8 (7 games in): 2%, 81st-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 9 (8 games in): 1%, 89th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 10 (8 games in): 1%, 85th-hottest of 132 FBS jobsnow

What drives his number

The biggest factors, each against the typical FBS job today.

  • ▼ Cooler
    Year 1 · tenure, which this model overrates
    (why?)

    Tenure is one of this model’s strongest inputs, but its weight was set when retirements like Nick Saban’s and Bob Stoops’ still counted as being pushed out, so it overstates how much tenure matters.

  • ▲ Hotter
    3-5, outscored by 52
  • ▼ Cooler
    Regional Program program · the bar going in

What happened to coaches like him, 2004–2025

A different comparison: past coaches, not today’s, grouped by one fact at a time. Neither line knows the games he has left or his contract, so they can sit above or below his chance.

Were 3-5 after 8 games
18% pushed out over results · of 379 coaches
Were in year 1, after 8 games
1% pushed out over results · of 521 coaches
The outcome
Pushed out over results — a firing, forced resignation, mutual parting or non-renewal, each read case by case. Leaving for a better job, or retiring on his own terms, doesn’t count.
Buyout
No figure on file for this coach. The salary database predates the last coaching carousel; a name mismatch is suppressed rather than misattributed.

How good is this number? Checked on every FBS coach from 2010 to 2025, with its percentages calibrated each season on earlier years only: they track what happened — coaches it put near 25% were out about a quarter of the time — and a version pricing the games left with the previous season’s ratings ranked jobs as well as the ranking this page used before. Each week it learns from coaches who were still on the job at that point, so a firing during the season counts. In the Boiling zone it has run a few points high. Every job, and the method.

Poach watch

This winter

1%chance he leaves this winter for a head-coaching job elsewhere, or an NFL coordinator jobSettled87th-highest of 132 FBS head coaches
0%50%+

Our poach model, on his record so far, the win chances for every game he has left, his program, his pay and his background. Ranked against the 132 FBS head coaches this season. The zone words describe the market’s interest; none of them says he is leaving.

What drives his number

The biggest factors in his profile, each against the typical FBS head coach today. The games he has left are priced into the number, not listed here.

  • ▼ Lower
    His first season at Missouri State
  • ▲ Higher
    No record for him here before this season · his first year in the job
  • ▲ Higher
    Age 46 · neither at his alma mater nor in the state he was born in
How good is this number? It ranks a head coach who leaves for another head-coaching job ahead of one who stays 78 to 82% of the time, and its average came within a point of the share who actually left. What it can’t do

Tested on every FBS head coach from 2012 through 2025, each season scored by a model fit only on the seasons before it. From three games on, given one coach who left for a head-coaching job elsewhere or an NFL coordinator job and one who stayed, it ranked the one who left ahead 79 to 82% of the time; in a season’s first two games, 78%. Its average chance came within a point of the share who actually left. It counts a move a coach makes while he still holds the job; when his school ends it, that doesn’t count, even if another school then hires him.

  • The live number prices the games he has left with the power model’s ratings from this season. The test priced them with each team’s rating from the season before, because ratings made during past seasons were not kept, so this live version could not be replayed.
  • Programs new to FBS have no FBS record before this season in the data it reads, so their coaches are scored without one.
  • It is frozen: it learns nothing from 2026 until a deliberate refit.
  • A coach hired in December needs his background (age, alma mater, the state he was born in) added before his first game, or he shows as not rated.