Dabo Swinney

Head coach · Clemson
19th season · since 2008

At Clemson192-56since 2008 · 5-3 this seasonHot seatCool5% · 58th of 132 jobsLast gameW 36-24at Florida State · Oct 31Nextat SyracuseSat Nov 7 · 12 pm ET · ESPN2
This week · as of Wed Nov 4

5-3, on track for 7-5 in the regular season.

Now

Career arc

Bowls and playoffs: 12-10 · won 2 of 4 national title games

’08L’09W’10L’11L’12W’13W’14W’15W’15L’16W’16W★’17L’18W’18W★’19W’19L’20L’21W’22L’23W’24L’25L

Show all 22 games
2008Gator BowlL 21-262009Music City BowlW 21-132010Meineke Car Care BowlL 26-312011Orange BowlL 33-702012Chick-fil-A BowlW 25-242013Orange BowlW 40-352014Russell Athletic BowlW 40-62015 semiOrange BowlW 37-172015CFP title gameL 40-452016 semiFiesta BowlW 31-02016 ★CFP title gameW 35-312017 semiSugar BowlL 6-242018 semiCotton Bowl ClassicW 30-32018 ★CFP title gameW 44-162019 semiFiesta BowlW 29-232019CFP title gameL 25-422020 semiSugar BowlL 28-492021Cheez-It BowlW 20-132022Orange BowlL 14-312023Gator BowlW 38-352024CFP first roundL 24-382025Pinstripe BowlL 10-22

This week Wed Nov 4

  • Last gameW 36-24 at Florida State Sat Oct 31
  • This season5-3
  • On track for7-5 regular season
  • Nextat Syracuse Sat Nov 7
  • Stature4th of 138 FBS programs

What the result changed

  • Playoff odds 0.6% → 1% CFB Zeitgeist forecast, before and after

Saturday: at Syracuse

Sat Nov 7, 12 pm ET ESPN2 · Syracuse is 4-4 · Swinney vs. Fran Brown: 0-1 · Clemson’s chance to win: 72% (the site’s model)

His week

You ought to be ashamed of yourself”

Dabo Swinney rips ‘Fire Novell’ banner at Florida State

Yahoo Sports headline · Sun Nov 1

Dozens of stories this week →

The headlines, Nov 1–4 from many outlets

Fans are frustrated with Clemson

Just remember this idiot picked clemson to win the national championship last year LMAO 🤣.

Love how a shitty Clemson team is still catching strays this year.

Well Clemson already torpedoed their season, so we should be safe come Thanksgiving weekend, right? Right?

Fan mood · last 3 weeks · more negative than 3 in 4 FBS fan bases

Offense: 131st of 138 per play. Defense: 25th.

Offense, per play131stPassing offense134thDefense, per play25thDefense, points allowed per trip inside the 4010thWorstBest
Offense, per play131st of 138Passing offense134th of 138Defense, per play25th of 138Defense, points allowed per trip inside the 4010th of 138WorstBest
Through 8 games. Each tick is an FBS team, adjusted for opponent strength (CFB Zeitgeist model); the dot is Clemson. The other two rows are where Clemson stands furthest from the middle. Early-season numbers move a lot.

4 games left

  1. Sat Nov 7at Syracuse (4-4)ESPN272%
  2. Sat Nov 14vs. Georgia Tech (2-6)The CW89%
  3. Fri Nov 20at Duke (6-2)ESPN39%
  4. Sat Nov 28vs. South Carolina (5-3)40%

Percent: Clemson’s chance to win, from the site’s model. Records are through today. Networks as announced; the rest are set closer to kickoff.

How the season got here

Clemson has held at 4th of 138 FBS programs by stature after every game this season.

  1. Oct 26–Nov 1W 36-24 at Florida State41 headlines · 12th of 138Dabo Swinney Makes History Following Clemson's Victory Over Florida State Sports Illustrated
  2. Oct 19–25L 16-20 vs. Virginia Tech35 headlines · 10th of 138Clemson HC Dabo Swinney Puts Coach on Notice, Offense 'Disturbing' Yahoo Sports
  3. Oct 12–18W 37-0 vs. Charleston Southern29 headlines · 11th of 138Clemson's Former Coach Seemingly Takes Shot at Dabo Swinney Yahoo Sports
  4. Oct 5–11No game17 headlines · 27th of 138Clemson HC Dabo Swinney's Policy Results in Decommitment Yahoo Sports“Didn’t Get a Lot of Help Tonight”Dabo Swinney Calls Out Poor Officiating as Clemson Suffers 41-13 Loss to Miami, Oct 4
  5. Sep 28–Oct 4L 13-41 vs. Miami31 headlines · 15th of 138Mario Cristobal's new way met Dabo Swinney's old approach -- and one is clearly working better CBS Sports
  6. Sep 21–27 · rebuiltW 24-10 at California30 headlines · 14th of 138Dabo Swinney praises Clemson's toughness in win over Cal ESPN

Each week as this page showed it at the time. Weeks marked rebuilt came before this page existed: they were built afterward from only what was known by the end of that week.

Watch the biggest plays from Clemson’s games, ranked by how much each moved the chance to win.

Report card

Defense carries it: 91st percentile defense, top-quarter offense at 75th.

Clemson, every completed season graded against the whole field, then averaged.

Offense

B+
of which —75th
efficiency — 75th percentile success rate, 2009–25
B+73rd
Standard-downs success
B69th
Passing-downs success
B+73rd
Trench push (line yards)
B-57th
Red-zone scoring rate
B62nd
Power-success (short yardage)
B-53rd
Ball security (giveaways per game)

Defense

A+
of which —91st
91st percentile SP+ defense, 2014–25 (SP+ starts 2014)
B-54th
Front-7 havoc
B+75th
Secondary havoc
B+76th
Stuff rate (run defense)
B65th
Takeaways per game

Each season is his team’s percentile among every team with that stat (the share it beat), averaged over his completed seasons here; a mid-season takeover year and the season in progress aren’t graded. Letters: A+ 90th percentile and up, A 80, B+ 70, B 60, B− 50, C+ 45, C 40, C− 30, D 15, F below.

Hot seat

See every job →

This season

5%chance he’s out by the end of this seasonCool58th-hottest of 132 FBS jobs
0%50%+

Our hot-seat model, on his record so far, the win chances for every game he has left, and his contract (a bigger buyout, relative to pay, makes a change costlier). Ranked against the 132 FBS head coaches with 3+ games this season.

Four national title games here, two won (2016, 2018) — all in 2009–2025, when every season ended Cool. Now cooler than at this point in 2025.

How his seat has moved, and why

His hot seat, week by week

The chance he’s out by the end of that season, as it stood after every week of his tenure here, by today’s model.

BoilingHotWarmCool200920112013201520172019202120232026◆◆2009, week 3 (3 games in): 2%, 71st-hottest of 101 FBS jobs2009, week 4 (4 games in): 3%, 72nd-hottest of 119 FBS jobs2009, week 5 (5 games in): 3%, 69th-hottest of 119 FBS jobs2009, week 6 (5 games in): 3%, 66th-hottest of 119 FBS jobs2009, week 7 (6 games in): 3%, 67th-hottest of 119 FBS jobs2009, week 8 (7 games in): 2%, 75th-hottest of 119 FBS jobs2009, week 9 (8 games in): 1%, 84th-hottest of 119 FBS jobs2009, week 10 (9 games in): 1%, 94th-hottest of 119 FBS jobs2009, week 11 (10 games in): 1%, 94th-hottest of 119 FBS jobs2009, week 12 (11 games in): 1%, 93rd-hottest of 119 FBS jobs2009, week 13 (12 games in): <1%, 99th-hottest of 119 FBS jobs2009, week 14 (12 games in): <1%, 98th-hottest of 119 FBS jobs2009, week 15 (12 games in): <1%, 98th-hottest of 119 FBS jobs2010, week 3 (3 games in): 2%, 67th-hottest of 102 FBS jobs2010, week 4 (3 games in): 2%, 80th-hottest of 119 FBS jobs2010, week 5 (4 games in): 3%, 75th-hottest of 119 FBS jobs2010, week 6 (5 games in): 3%, 68th-hottest of 119 FBS jobs2010, week 7 (6 games in): 2%, 78th-hottest of 119 FBS jobs2010, week 8 (7 games in): 2%, 81st-hottest of 119 FBS jobs2010, week 9 (8 games in): 2%, 76th-hottest of 119 FBS jobs2010, week 10 (9 games in): 2%, 80th-hottest of 119 FBS jobs2010, week 11 (10 games in): 2%, 78th-hottest of 119 FBS jobs2010, week 12 (11 games in): 1%, 78th-hottest of 119 FBS jobs2010, week 13 (12 games in): 1%, 73rd-hottest of 119 FBS jobs2010, week 14 (12 games in): 1%, 74th-hottest of 119 FBS jobs2010, week 15 (12 games in): 1%, 74th-hottest of 119 FBS jobs2011, week 3 (3 games in): 2%, 74th-hottest of 99 FBS jobs2011, week 4 (4 games in): 1%, 100th-hottest of 119 FBS jobs2011, week 5 (5 games in): 1%, 105th-hottest of 119 FBS jobs2011, week 6 (6 games in): <1%, 108th-hottest of 119 FBS jobs2011, week 7 (7 games in): <1%, 109th-hottest of 119 FBS jobs2011, week 8 (8 games in): <1%, 112th-hottest of 119 FBS jobs2011, week 9 (9 games in): <1%, 103rd-hottest of 119 FBS jobs2011, week 10 (9 games in): <1%, 101st-hottest of 119 FBS jobs2011, week 11 (10 games in): <1%, 101st-hottest of 119 FBS jobs2011, week 12 (11 games in): <1%, 94th-hottest of 119 FBS jobs2011, week 13 (12 games in): <1%, 95th-hottest of 119 FBS jobs2011, week 14 (12 games in): <1%, 92nd-hottest of 119 FBS jobs2011, week 15 (12 games in): <1%, 92nd-hottest of 119 FBS jobs2012, week 3 (3 games in): 4%, 53rd-hottest of 101 FBS jobs2012, week 4 (4 games in): 3%, 61st-hottest of 121 FBS jobs2012, week 5 (5 games in): 3%, 75th-hottest of 123 FBS jobs2012, week 6 (6 games in): 2%, 83rd-hottest of 123 FBS jobs2012, week 7 (6 games in): 2%, 80th-hottest of 123 FBS jobs2012, week 8 (7 games in): 1%, 89th-hottest of 123 FBS jobs2012, week 9 (8 games in): 1%, 99th-hottest of 123 FBS jobs2012, week 10 (9 games in): <1%, 98th-hottest of 123 FBS jobs2012, week 11 (10 games in): <1%, 97th-hottest of 123 FBS jobs2012, week 12 (11 games in): <1%, 98th-hottest of 123 FBS jobs2012, week 13 (12 games in): <1%, 99th-hottest of 123 FBS jobs2012, week 14 (12 games in): <1%, 97th-hottest of 123 FBS jobs2012, week 15 (12 games in): <1%, 97th-hottest of 123 FBS jobs2013, week 4 (3 games in): 1%, 106th-hottest of 121 FBS jobs2013, week 5 (4 games in): <1%, 112th-hottest of 124 FBS jobs2013, week 6 (5 games in): <1%, 113th-hottest of 124 FBS jobs2013, week 7 (6 games in): <1%, 112th-hottest of 124 FBS jobs2013, week 8 (7 games in): <1%, 111th-hottest of 124 FBS jobs2013, week 9 (8 games in): <1%, 114th-hottest of 124 FBS jobs2013, week 10 (9 games in): <1%, 114th-hottest of 124 FBS jobs2013, week 11 (9 games in): <1%, 112th-hottest of 124 FBS jobs2013, week 12 (10 games in): <1%, 112th-hottest of 124 FBS jobs2013, week 13 (11 games in): <1%, 113th-hottest of 124 FBS jobs2013, week 14 (12 games in): <1%, 111th-hottest of 124 FBS jobs2013, week 15 (12 games in): <1%, 109th-hottest of 124 FBS jobs2013, week 16 (12 games in): <1%, 109th-hottest of 124 FBS jobs2014, week 4 (3 games in): 1%, 101st-hottest of 125 FBS jobs2014, week 5 (4 games in): 1%, 105th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2014, week 6 (5 games in): 1%, 105th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2014, week 7 (6 games in): <1%, 108th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2014, week 8 (7 games in): <1%, 111th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2014, week 9 (8 games in): <1%, 113th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2014, week 10 (8 games in): <1%, 109th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2014, week 11 (9 games in): <1%, 108th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2014, week 12 (10 games in): <1%, 106th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2014, week 13 (11 games in): <1%, 107th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2014, week 14 (12 games in): <1%, 113th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2014, week 15 (12 games in): <1%, 112th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2014, week 16 (12 games in): <1%, 112th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2015, week 3 (3 games in): 1%, 103rd-hottest of 115 FBS jobs2015, week 4 (3 games in): 1%, 112th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2015, week 5 (4 games in): <1%, 118th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2015, week 6 (5 games in): <1%, 117th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2015, week 7 (6 games in): <1%, 122nd-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2015, week 8 (7 games in): <1%, 124th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2015, week 9 (8 games in): <1%, 124th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2015, week 10 (9 games in): <1%, 124th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2015, week 11 (10 games in): <1%, 124th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2015, week 12 (11 games in): <1%, 124th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2015, week 13 (12 games in): <1%, 123rd-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2015, week 14 (12 games in): <1%, 123rd-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2015, week 15 (12 games in): <1%, 123rd-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2016, week 3 (3 games in): <1%, 107th-hottest of 113 FBS jobs2016, week 4 (4 games in): <1%, 121st-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2016, week 5 (5 games in): <1%, 123rd-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2016, week 6 (6 games in): <1%, 124th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2016, week 7 (7 games in): <1%, 123rd-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2016, week 8 (7 games in): <1%, 125th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2016, week 9 (8 games in): <1%, 125th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2016, week 10 (9 games in): <1%, 124th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2016, week 11 (10 games in): <1%, 124th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2016, week 12 (11 games in): <1%, 124th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2016, week 13 (12 games in): <1%, 124th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2016, week 14 (12 games in): <1%, 124th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2016, week 15 (12 games in): <1%, 124th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2017, week 3 (3 games in): <1%, 104th-hottest of 105 FBS jobs2017, week 4 (4 games in): <1%, 125th-hottest of 126 FBS jobs2017, week 5 (5 games in): <1%, 127th-hottest of 129 FBS jobs2017, week 6 (6 games in): <1%, 128th-hottest of 129 FBS jobs2017, week 7 (7 games in): <1%, 127th-hottest of 129 FBS jobs2017, week 8 (7 games in): <1%, 127th-hottest of 129 FBS jobs2017, week 9 (8 games in): <1%, 126th-hottest of 129 FBS jobs2017, week 10 (9 games in): <1%, 127th-hottest of 129 FBS jobs2017, week 11 (10 games in): <1%, 128th-hottest of 129 FBS jobs2017, week 12 (11 games in): <1%, 128th-hottest of 129 FBS jobs2017, week 13 (12 games in): <1%, 128th-hottest of 129 FBS jobs2017, week 14 (12 games in): <1%, 128th-hottest of 129 FBS jobs2017, week 15 (12 games in): <1%, 128th-hottest of 129 FBS jobs2018, week 3 (3 games in): <1%, 109th-hottest of 110 FBS jobs2018, week 4 (4 games in): <1%, 129th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2018, week 5 (5 games in): <1%, Coolest of 130 FBS jobs2018, week 6 (6 games in): <1%, Coolest of 130 FBS jobs2018, week 7 (6 games in): <1%, Coolest of 130 FBS jobs2018, week 8 (7 games in): <1%, Coolest of 130 FBS jobs2018, week 9 (8 games in): <1%, Coolest of 130 FBS jobs2018, week 10 (9 games in): <1%, Coolest of 130 FBS jobs2018, week 11 (10 games in): <1%, Coolest of 130 FBS jobs2018, week 12 (11 games in): <1%, Coolest of 130 FBS jobs2018, week 13 (12 games in): <1%, Coolest of 130 FBS jobs2018, week 14 (12 games in): <1%, Coolest of 130 FBS jobs2018, week 15 (12 games in): <1%, Coolest of 130 FBS jobs2019, week 3 (3 games in): <1%, 105th-hottest of 106 FBS jobs2019, week 4 (4 games in): <1%, 128th-hottest of 129 FBS jobs2019, week 5 (5 games in): <1%, 129th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2019, week 6 (5 games in): <1%, 129th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2019, week 7 (6 games in): <1%, 129th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2019, week 8 (7 games in): <1%, 129th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2019, week 9 (8 games in): <1%, 129th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2019, week 10 (9 games in): <1%, 129th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2019, week 11 (10 games in): <1%, 129th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2019, week 12 (11 games in): <1%, 129th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2019, week 13 (11 games in): <1%, 129th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2019, week 14 (12 games in): <1%, 129th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2019, week 15 (12 games in): <1%, 129th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2020, week 6 (4 games in): <1%, 66th-hottest of 67 FBS jobs2020, week 7 (5 games in): <1%, 68th-hottest of 69 FBS jobs2020, week 8 (6 games in): <1%, 72nd-hottest of 74 FBS jobs2020, week 9 (7 games in): <1%, 74th-hottest of 76 FBS jobs2020, week 10 (8 games in): <1%, 93rd-hottest of 96 FBS jobs2020, week 11 (8 games in): <1%, 97th-hottest of 100 FBS jobs2020, week 12 (8 games in): <1%, 113th-hottest of 117 FBS jobs2020, week 13 (9 games in): <1%, 120th-hottest of 124 FBS jobs2020, week 14 (10 games in): <1%, 121st-hottest of 126 FBS jobs2020, week 15 (10 games in): <1%, 121st-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2020, week 16 (11 games in): <1%, 122nd-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2021, week 3 (3 games in): 1%, 110th-hottest of 125 FBS jobs2021, week 4 (4 games in): 2%, 104th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 5 (5 games in): 2%, 103rd-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 6 (5 games in): 2%, 100th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 7 (6 games in): 1%, 100th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 8 (7 games in): 2%, 95th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 9 (8 games in): 1%, 96th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 10 (9 games in): 1%, 104th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 11 (10 games in): 1%, 106th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 12 (11 games in): <1%, 108th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 13 (12 games in): <1%, 108th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 14 (12 games in): <1%, 108th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 15 (12 games in): <1%, 108th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2022, week 3 (3 games in): 1%, 107th-hottest of 125 FBS jobs2022, week 4 (4 games in): 1%, 113th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 5 (5 games in): <1%, 120th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 6 (6 games in): <1%, 119th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 7 (7 games in): <1%, 122nd-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 8 (8 games in): <1%, 120th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 9 (8 games in): <1%, 118th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 10 (9 games in): <1%, 114th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 11 (10 games in): <1%, 116th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 12 (11 games in): <1%, 117th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 13 (12 games in): <1%, 115th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 14 (12 games in): <1%, 115th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 15 (12 games in): <1%, 115th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2023, week 3 (3 games in): 4%, 71st-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2023, week 4 (4 games in): 5%, 68th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 5 (5 games in): 4%, 73rd-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 6 (6 games in): 3%, 73rd-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 7 (6 games in): 3%, 73rd-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 8 (7 games in): 5%, 66th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 9 (8 games in): 6%, 57th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 10 (9 games in): 4%, 65th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 11 (10 games in): 3%, 68th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 12 (11 games in): 2%, 76th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 13 (12 games in): 1%, 81st-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 14 (12 games in): 1%, 81st-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 15 (12 games in): 1%, 81st-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2024, week 4 (3 games in): 3%, 84th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 5 (4 games in): 2%, 84th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 6 (5 games in): 1%, 92nd-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 7 (6 games in): 1%, 97th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 8 (7 games in): 1%, 98th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 9 (7 games in): 1%, 98th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 10 (8 games in): 1%, 90th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 11 (9 games in): 1%, 96th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 12 (10 games in): 1%, 100th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 13 (11 games in): <1%, 101st-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 14 (12 games in): <1%, 107th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 15 (12 games in): <1%, 106th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 16 (12 games in): <1%, 106th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2025, week 3 (3 games in): 10%, 40th-hottest of 118 FBS jobs2025, week 4 (4 games in): 14%, 34th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 5 (4 games in): 14%, 31st-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 6 (5 games in): 9.6%, 42nd-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 7 (6 games in): 8%, 43rd-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 8 (7 games in): 11%, 40th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 9 (7 games in): 11%, 39th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 10 (8 games in): 14%, 33rd-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 11 (9 games in): 12%, 36th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 12 (10 games in): 9%, 45th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 13 (11 games in): 8%, 44th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 14 (12 games in): 4%, 54th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 15 (12 games in): 4%, 54th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 16 (12 games in): 4%, 54th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2026, week 3 (3 games in): 5%, 62nd-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2026, week 4 (4 games in): 3%, 78th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 5 (5 games in): 6%, 61st-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 6 (5 games in): 6%, 62nd-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 7 (6 games in): 5%, 62nd-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 8 (7 games in): 8%, 51st-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 9 (8 games in): 5%, 62nd-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 10 (8 games in): 5%, 58th-hottest of 132 FBS jobsnowEvery season ended Cool, 2009–20254 national title games, 2 won

◆ national title · earlier seasons price the games left with power ratings rebuilt after those seasons ended · he took over during the 2008 season (7 games); that year is unrated, since each season counts against whoever started it.

What drives his number

The biggest factors, each against the typical FBS job today.

  • ▲ Hotter
    Year 18 · tenure, which this model overrates
    (why?)

    Tenure is one of this model’s strongest inputs, but its weight was set when retirements like Nick Saban’s and Bob Stoops’ still counted as being pushed out, so it overstates how much tenure matters. History alone points the other way: of 213 past coaches in year 10 or later at this point in a season, 6% were pushed out over results, against 13% of 1,454 in years 3–9.

  • ▼ Cooler
    5-3, outscoring opponents by 13
  • ▼ Cooler
    $60M buyout (USA Today estimate) · 5.2× his pay, a multiple among the largest in FBS — costly to move on

What happened to coaches like him, 2004–2025

A different comparison: past coaches, not today’s, grouped by one fact at a time. Neither line knows the games he has left or his contract, so they can sit above or below his chance.

Were 5-3 after 8 games
5% pushed out over results · of 502 coaches
Were in year 10 or later, after 8 games
6% pushed out over results · of 213 coaches
The outcome
Pushed out over results — a firing, forced resignation, mutual parting or non-renewal, each read case by case. Leaving for a better job, or retiring on his own terms, doesn’t count.
Buyout
$60,000,000 USA Today estimate (Oct. 2025) — not a disclosed figure · 5.2× total pay · a large buyout, which lowers his chance of being let go · without it: 12%

How good is this number? Checked on every FBS coach from 2010 to 2025, with its percentages calibrated each season on earlier years only: they track what happened — coaches it put near 25% were out about a quarter of the time — and a version pricing the games left with the previous season’s ratings ranked jobs as well as the ranking this page used before. Each week it learns from coaches who were still on the job at that point, so a firing during the season counts. In the Boiling zone it has run a few points high. Every job, and the method.