This week · as of Wed Nov 4

2-7, lost 3 straight, on track for 3-9 in the regular season.

Now

Career arc

This week Wed Nov 4

  • Last gameL 10-23 at Western Michigan Sat Oct 31
  • This season2-7 lost 3 straight
  • Hot seat24% 15th of 132
  • On track for3-9 regular season
  • Nextvs. Kent State Tue Nov 10
  • Stature118th of 138 FBS programs

Win and he’s at 21%. Lose and he’s at 28%.

vs. Kent State, Tue Nov 10, 7 pm ET ESPNU · Kent State is 3-6 · George vs. Mark Carney: 0-1 · Bowling Green’s chance to win: 68% (the site’s model)

CoolWarmHotBoilingIf Bowling Green wins: 21%, 18th of 132Now: 24%If Bowling Green loses: 28%, 10th of 1320%50%+
CoolWarmHotBoiling0%50%+
  • If Bowling Green wins: 21%, 18th of 132
  • Now: 24%
  • If Bowling Green loses: 28%, 10th of 132
His chance of being out after the season, now and after Saturday. Each tick is an FBS head coach’s number today; ranks are against today’s field. From the site’s hot-seat model.

Is he getting fired?

24% chance he’s out after the season · 15th of 132 FBS head coaches · Hot

Coolunder 10%Warm10–20%Hot20–35%Boiling35% upNow17% had they won17% had they wonLoss 28%Win 21%17%19%22%29%31%21%17%22%24%24%Pre1L vs. Tarleton StateL2L at NebraskaL3L at Iowa StateL4L vs. South FloridaL5W at Miami (OH)W6W vs. Sacramento StateW7L vs. Ball StateL8L at BuffaloL9L at Western MichiganL10Chance to win vs. Kent State68%11Chance to win at Toledo9%12Chance to win vs. Massachusetts56%Game number. Under each game: the result, or his team’s chance to win it
CoolWarmHotBoilingNow17% had they wonLoss 28%Win 21%17%24%Pre36912Game
Dark line: his number after each game; a small dot just before a game is where it stood at kickoff, after other results moved it. Gray: where it could go, 8 seasons in 10 (darker, the middle half). The hollow dot: had his last game gone the other way. From the site’s hot-seat model.

If he finishes…

Bar: how likely that finish isNumber: his chance of being out

  1. 2-1031%
  2. 3-924%
  3. 4-817%
  4. 5-711%
Why his number is where it is

Our hot-seat model, on his record so far, the win chances for every game he has left, and his contract (a bigger buyout, relative to pay, makes a change costlier). Ranked against the 132 FBS head coaches with 3+ games this season.

Now hotter than at this point in 2025.

His hot seat, week by week

The chance he’s out by the end of that season, as it stood after every week of his tenure here, by today’s model.

BoilingHotWarmCool202520262025, week 3 (3 games in): 1%, 95th-hottest of 118 FBS jobs2025, week 4 (4 games in): 1%, 103rd-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 5 (5 games in): 1%, 100th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 6 (5 games in): 1%, 94th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 7 (6 games in): 1%, 101st-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 8 (7 games in): 1%, 90th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 9 (8 games in): 2%, 84th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 10 (9 games in): 2%, 78th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 11 (10 games in): 2%, 75th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 12 (10 games in): 2%, 72nd-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 13 (11 games in): 3%, 66th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 14 (12 games in): 2%, 73rd-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 15 (12 games in): 2%, 73rd-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 16 (12 games in): 2%, 73rd-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2026, week 3 (3 games in): 29%, 13th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2026, week 4 (4 games in): 31%, 13th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 5 (5 games in): 21%, 24th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 6 (6 games in): 17%, 27th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 7 (7 games in): 22%, 17th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 8 (8 games in): 24%, 14th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 9 (9 games in): 24%, 17th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 10 (9 games in): 24%, 15th-hottest of 132 FBS jobsnowHottest: 2026, week 4▲ 0-4, outscored by 112

Hottest: 2026, week 4 (31%, 13th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs that week). Top factor: ▲ Hotter 0-4, outscored by 112

Earlier seasons price the games left with power ratings rebuilt after those seasons ended.

What drives his number

The biggest factors, each against the typical FBS job today.

  • ▲ Hotter
    2-7, outscored by 101
  • ▲ Hotter
    4-8 over his previous season here
  • ▲ Hotter
    $1.7M buyout (USA Today estimate) · 2.4× his pay, a multiple below average in FBS — cheap to move on

What happened to coaches like him, 2004–2025

A different comparison: past coaches, not today’s, grouped by one fact at a time. Neither line knows the games he has left or his contract, so they can sit above or below his chance.

Were 2-7 after 9 games
19% pushed out over results · of 218 coaches
Were in year 2, after 9 games
5% pushed out over results · of 467 coaches
The outcome
Pushed out over results — a firing, forced resignation, mutual parting or non-renewal, each read case by case. Leaving for a better job, or retiring on his own terms, doesn’t count.
Buyout
$1,676,220 USA Today estimate (Oct. 2025) — not a disclosed figure · 2.4× total pay · a small buyout, which raises his chance of being let go · without it: 15%

How good is this number? Checked on every FBS coach from 2010 to 2025, with its percentages calibrated each season on earlier years only: they track what happened — coaches it put near 25% were out about a quarter of the time — and a version pricing the games left with the previous season’s ratings ranked jobs as well as the ranking this page used before. Each week it learns from coaches who were still on the job at that point, so a firing during the season counts. In the Boiling zone it has run a few points high. Every job, and the method.

No headlines named him in the last 7 days

What they are talking about, week and season

Offense: 109th of 138 per play. Defense: 110th.

Offense, per play109thRunning offense120thDefense, per play110thDefense, knocking offenses off schedule131stWorstBest
Offense, per play109th of 138Running offense120th of 138Defense, per play110th of 138Defense, knocking offenses off schedule131st of 138WorstBest
Through 9 games. Each tick is an FBS team, adjusted for opponent strength (CFB Zeitgeist model); the dot is Bowling Green. The other two rows are where Bowling Green stands furthest from the middle. Early-season numbers move a lot.

3 games left

  1. Tue Nov 10vs. Kent State (3-6)ESPNU68%
  2. Fri Nov 20at Toledo (6-2)ESPN29%
  3. Sat Nov 28vs. Massachusetts (4-4)56%

Percent: Bowling Green’s chance to win, from the site’s model. Records are through today. Networks as announced; the rest are set closer to kickoff.

How the season got here

Where Bowling Green stood among 138 FBS programs by stature after each game (1st is the highest; the CFB Zeitgeist ledger).

111th117th123rdPreseason117thTarleton State L 13-20Tarleton State L 13-20L 13-20Tarleton State117thNebraska L 7-56Nebraska L 7-56L 7-56Nebraska116thIowa State L 7-55Iowa State L 7-55L 7-55Iowa State117thSouth Florida L 6-14South Florida L 6-14L 6-14South Florida118thMiami (OH) W 24-20Miami (OH) W 24-20W 24-20Miami (OH)118thSacramento State W 38-10Sacramento State W 38-10W 38-10Sacramento St…118thBall State L 31-32Ball State L 31-32L 31-32Ball State118thBuffalo L 24-31Buffalo L 24-31L 24-31Buffalo118thWestern Michigan L 10-23Western Michigan L 10-23L 10-23Western Michi…118thBye118th
  1. Oct 26–Nov 1L 10-23 at Western Michigan0 headlines
  2. Oct 19–25L 24-31 at Buffalo1 headline · 81st of 138
  3. Oct 12–18L 31-32 vs. Ball State0 headlines
  4. Oct 5–11W 38-10 vs. Sacramento State1 headline · 83rd of 138
  5. Sep 28–Oct 4W 24-20 at Miami (OH)0 headlines
  6. Sep 21–27 · rebuiltL 6-14 vs. South Florida0 headlines

Each week as this page showed it at the time. Weeks marked rebuilt came before this page existed: they were built afterward from only what was known by the end of that week.

Watch the biggest plays from Bowling Green’s games, ranked by how much each moved the chance to win.