Jerry Mack

Head coach · Kennesaw State
2nd season · since 2025

At school12-10since 2025 · 2-6 this seasonHot seatWarm10% · 35th of 132 jobsLast gameW 44-28at Middle Tennessee · Oct 28Nextvs DelawareSat Nov 7 · 3 pm ET
This week · as of Wed Nov 4

2-6, on track for 4-8 in the regular season.

Now

Career arc

Bowls and playoffs: 0-1

2025Myrtle Beach BowlL 6-41

This week Wed Nov 4

  • Last gameW 44-28 at Middle Tennessee Wed Oct 28
  • This season2-6
  • Hot seat10% 35th of 132
  • On track for4-8 regular season
  • Nextvs. Delaware Sat Nov 7
  • Stature125th of 138 FBS programs

Win and he’s at 7%. Lose and he’s at 11%.

vs. Delaware, Sat Nov 7, 3 pm ET ESPN+ · Delaware is 4-4 · First meeting between Mack and Ryan Carty as head coaches · Kennesaw State’s chance to win: 29% (the site’s model)

CoolWarmHotBoilingIf Kennesaw State wins: 7%, 44th of 132Now: 10%If Kennesaw State loses: 11%, 35th of 1320%50%+
CoolWarmHotBoiling0%50%+
  • If Kennesaw State wins: 7%, 44th of 132
  • Now: 10%
  • If Kennesaw State loses: 11%, 35th of 132
His chance of being out after the season, now and after Saturday. Each tick is an FBS head coach’s number today; ranks are against today’s field. From the site’s hot-seat model.

Is he getting fired?

10% chance he’s out after the season · 35th of 132 FBS head coaches · Warm

Coolunder 10%Warm10–20%Hot20–35%Boiling35% upNow18% had they lost18% had they lostLoss 11%Win 7%9%6%10%12%13%12%14%17%10%Pre1W vs. West GeorgiaW2L vs. Georgia StateL3L at TennesseeL4L at Arkansas StateL5L vs. Jacksonville StateL6L at Missouri StateL7L vs. LibertyL8W at Middle TennesseeW9Chance to win vs. Delaware29%10Chance to win at Sam Houston64%11Chance to win vs. Florida International54%12Chance to win at Western Kentucky39%Game number. Under each game: the result, or his team’s chance to win it
CoolWarmHotBoilingNow18% had they lost18% had they lostLoss 11%Win 7%9%10%Pre368912Game
Dark line: his number after each game; a small dot just before a game is where it stood at kickoff, after other results moved it. Gray: where it could go, 8 seasons in 10 (darker, the middle half). The hollow dot: had his last game gone the other way. From the site’s hot-seat model.

If he finishes…

Bar: how likely that finish isNumber: his chance of being out

  1. 2-1019%
  2. 3-912%
  3. 4-88%
  4. 5-75%
  5. 6-63%
Why his number is where it is

Our hot-seat model, on his record so far, the win chances for every game he has left, and his contract (a bigger buyout, relative to pay, makes a change costlier). Ranked against the 132 FBS head coaches with 3+ games this season.

Now hotter than at this point in 2025.

His hot seat, week by week

The chance he’s out by the end of that season, as it stood after every week of his tenure here, by today’s model.

BoilingHotWarmCool202520262025, week 3 (3 games in): 3%, 69th-hottest of 118 FBS jobs2025, week 4 (4 games in): 2%, 85th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 5 (5 games in): 1%, 98th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 6 (5 games in): 1%, 92nd-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 7 (6 games in): 1%, 106th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 8 (6 games in): 1%, 107th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 9 (7 games in): 1%, 107th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 10 (8 games in): <1%, 115th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 11 (9 games in): <1%, 114th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 12 (10 games in): <1%, 110th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 13 (11 games in): <1%, 114th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 14 (12 games in): <1%, 112th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 15 (12 games in): <1%, 112th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 16 (12 games in): <1%, 111th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2026, week 3 (3 games in): 12%, 39th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2026, week 4 (4 games in): 13%, 38th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 5 (4 games in): 12%, 37th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 6 (5 games in): 11%, 40th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 7 (6 games in): 13%, 36th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 8 (7 games in): 17%, 28th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 9 (8 games in): 10%, 39th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 10 (8 games in): 10%, 35th-hottest of 132 FBS jobsnow

Earlier seasons price the games left with power ratings rebuilt after those seasons ended.

What drives his number

The biggest factors, each against the typical FBS job today.

  • ▲ Hotter
    2-6, outscored by 19
  • ▲ Hotter
    $1.8M buyout · 2.4× his pay, a multiple below average in FBS — cheap to move on
  • ▼ Cooler
    10-4 over his previous season here

What happened to coaches like him, 2004–2025

A different comparison: past coaches, not today’s, grouped by one fact at a time. Neither line knows the games he has left or his contract, so they can sit above or below his chance.

Were 2-6 after 8 games
16% pushed out over results · of 288 coaches
Were in year 2, after 8 games
5% pushed out over results · of 469 coaches
The outcome
Pushed out over results — a firing, forced resignation, mutual parting or non-renewal, each read case by case. Leaving for a better job, or retiring on his own terms, doesn’t count.
Buyout
$1,800,000 reported, USA Today, Oct. 2025 · 2.4× total pay · a small buyout, which raises his chance of being let go · without it: 6%

How good is this number? Checked on every FBS coach from 2010 to 2025, with its percentages calibrated each season on earlier years only: they track what happened — coaches it put near 25% were out about a quarter of the time — and a version pricing the games left with the previous season’s ratings ranked jobs as well as the ranking this page used before. Each week it learns from coaches who were still on the job at that point, so a firing during the season counts. In the Boiling zone it has run a few points high. Every job, and the method.

No headlines named him in the last 7 days

What they are talking about, week and season

Offense: 104th of 138 per play. Defense: 104th.

Offense, per play104thOffense, starting field position138thDefense, per play104thDefense, opponents' starting field position110thWorstBest
Offense, per play104th of 138Offense, starting field position138th of 138Defense, per play104th of 138Defense, opponents' starting field position110th of 138WorstBest
Through 8 games. Each tick is an FBS team, adjusted for opponent strength (CFB Zeitgeist model); the dot is Kennesaw State. The other two rows are where Kennesaw State stands furthest from the middle. Early-season numbers move a lot.

4 games left

  1. Sat Nov 7vs. Delaware (4-4)ESPN+29%
  2. Sat Nov 14at Sam Houston (1-7)ESPN+64%
  3. Sat Nov 21vs. Florida International (3-5)54%
  4. Sat Nov 28at Western Kentucky (3-5)39%

Percent: Kennesaw State’s chance to win, from the site’s model. Records are through today. Networks as announced; the rest are set closer to kickoff.

How the season got here

Where Kennesaw State stood among 138 FBS programs by stature after each game (1st is the highest; the CFB Zeitgeist ledger).

117th123rd129thPreseason121stWest Georgia W 47-0West Georgia W 47-0W 47-0West Georgia122ndGeorgia State L 17-31Georgia State L 17-31L 17-31Georgia State124thTennessee L 9-42Tennessee L 9-42L 9-42Tennessee124thArkansas State L 14-17Arkansas State L 14-17L 14-17Arkansas State124thJacksonville State L 26-27Jacksonville State L 26-27L 26-27Jacksonville …125thMissouri State L 21-24Missouri State L 21-24L 21-24Missouri State125thLiberty L 6-34Liberty L 6-34L 6-34Liberty124thMiddle Tennessee W 44-28Middle Tennessee W 44-28W 44-28Middle Tennes…125th
  1. Oct 26–Nov 1W 44-28 at Middle Tennessee0 headlines
  2. Oct 19–25L 6-34 vs. Liberty0 headlines
  3. Oct 12–18L 21-24 at Missouri State0 headlines
  4. Oct 5–11L 26-27 vs. Jacksonville State0 headlines
  5. Sep 28–Oct 4No game1 headline · 82nd of 138Inside Memphis native Jerry Mack's process at Kennesaw State football | Exclusive The Commercial Appeal
  6. Sep 21–27 · rebuiltL 14-17 at Arkansas State2 headlines · 76th of 138Jerry Mack and Antoine Pettway on 929 The Game Kennesaw State University Athletics

Each week as this page showed it at the time. Weeks marked rebuilt came before this page existed: they were built afterward from only what was known by the end of that week.

Watch the biggest plays from Kennesaw State’s games, ranked by how much each moved the chance to win.

Poach watch

This winter

7%chance he leaves this winter for a head-coaching job elsewhere, or an NFL coordinator jobSettled30th-highest of 132 FBS head coaches
0%50%+

Our poach model, on his record so far, the win chances for every game he has left, his program, his pay and his background. Ranked against the 132 FBS head coaches this season. The zone words describe the market’s interest; none of them says he is leaving.

What drives his number

The biggest factors in his profile, each against the typical FBS head coach today. The games he has left are priced into the number, not listed here.

  • ▲ Higher
    Age 46 · neither at his alma mater nor in the state he was born in
  • ▲ Higher
    Paid $750,000 in 2025, the 10th percentile of published FBS head-coach pay
  • ▼ Lower
    His team is 2-6, outscored by 2.4 points a game
How good is this number? It ranks a head coach who leaves for another head-coaching job ahead of one who stays 78 to 82% of the time, and its average came within a point of the share who actually left. What it can’t do

Tested on every FBS head coach from 2012 through 2025, each season scored by a model fit only on the seasons before it. From three games on, given one coach who left for a head-coaching job elsewhere or an NFL coordinator job and one who stayed, it ranked the one who left ahead 79 to 82% of the time; in a season’s first two games, 78%. Its average chance came within a point of the share who actually left. It counts a move a coach makes while he still holds the job; when his school ends it, that doesn’t count, even if another school then hires him.

  • The live number prices the games he has left with the power model’s ratings from this season. The test priced them with each team’s rating from the season before, because ratings made during past seasons were not kept, so this live version could not be replayed.
  • Programs new to FBS have no FBS record before this season in the data it reads, so their coaches are scored without one.
  • It is frozen: it learns nothing from 2026 until a deliberate refit.
  • A coach hired in December needs his background (age, alma mater, the state he was born in) added before his first game, or he shows as not rated.