Joey McGuire

Head coach · Texas Tech
5th season · since 2022

At Texas Tech42-19since 2022 · 7-1 this season Hot seatCool1% · 86th of 132 jobs Last gameW 34-26vs Arizona · Oct 31 Nextvs West VirginiaSat Nov 7 · 9:30 pm ET · ESPN

This week · as of Wed Nov 4

7-1, on track for 10-2 in the regular season.

Now

Career arc

Bowls and playoffs: 2-2

2022Texas BowlW 42-25

2023Independence BowlW 34-14

2024Liberty BowlL 26-39

2025 QFOrange BowlL 0-23

This week Wed Nov 4

Last gameW 34-26 vs. Arizona Sat Oct 31
This season7-1
On track for10-2 regular season
Nextvs. West Virginia Sat Nov 7
Stature24th of 138 FBS programs

What the result changed

Playoff odds 30% → 43% CFB Zeitgeist forecast, before and after

Saturday: vs. West Virginia

Sat Nov 7, 9:30 pm ET · West Virginia is 5-3 · McGuire vs. Rich Rodriguez: 1-0 · Texas Tech’s chance to win: 95% (the site’s model)

Many stories this week →

The headlines, Nov 1–4 from several outlets

Yahoo SportsRed Raiders' Joey McGuire Says Brett Yormark Left The Big 12 Better Than He Left ItTue Nov 3
On3What Texas Tech HC Joey McGuire had to say about West Virginia, Thomas Castellanos and the future of the Big 12Mon Nov 2
247SportsTexas Tech coach Joey McGuire sees improvement in WVU's defenseTue Nov 3
Lubbock Avalanche-JournalJoey McGuire tells Texas Tech fans to pace themselves for late kickMon Nov 2
Lubbock Avalanche-JournalWhat Joey McGuire wants out of the next Big 12 Conference commissionerMon Nov 2
Wreck Em RedJoey McGuire shows how much he loves Texas Tech in emotional postgame interviewSun Nov 1

Offense: 66th of 138 per play. Defense: 17th.

Through 8 games. Each tick is an FBS team, adjusted for opponent strength (CFB Zeitgeist model); the dot is Texas Tech. The other two rows are where Texas Tech stands furthest from the middle. Early-season numbers move a lot.

4 games left

Sat Nov 7vs. West Virginia (5-3)95%
Sat Nov 14at Oklahoma State (5-3)82%
Sat Nov 21at Baylor (5-3)50%
Thu Nov 26vs. TCU (4-4)77%

Percent: Texas Tech’s chance to win, from the site’s model. Records are through today. Networks as announced; the rest are set closer to kickoff.

How the season got here

Where Texas Tech stood among 138 FBS programs by stature after each game (1st is the highest; the CFB Zeitgeist ledger).

Oct 26–Nov 1W 34-26 vs. Arizona29 headlines · 23rd of 138Texas Tech’s Joey McGuire makes last-minute QB change for Arizona clash Yahoo Sports
Oct 19–25L 24-37 at Cincinnati10 headlines · 43rd of 138'Got Our Work Cut Out!' Texas Tech's Joey McGuire On Cincinnati Road Test Yahoo Sports“As bad of football that we have been a part of”Texas Tech’s McGuire on loss to Cincy, Oct 24
Oct 12–18W 53-25 vs. Arizona State7 headlines · 45th of 138Joey McGuire Discusses Texas Tech’s Second-Half Success, Offensive Adjustments and Arizona State On3
Oct 5–11No game11 headlines · 35th of 138Joey McGuire Wants Cleaner Football From Unbeaten Texas Tech Yahoo Sports
Sep 28–Oct 4W 29-7 at Colorado12 headlines · 39th of 138Joey McGuire, Deion Sanders Meet Again In Texas Tech-Colorado Clash Yahoo Sports
Sep 21–27 · rebuiltW 49-14 vs. Sam Houston8 headlines · 44th of 138Joey McGuire reacts to Texas Tech's 49-14 win: Standouts, halftime message and lingering mistakes On3

Each week as this page showed it at the time. Weeks marked rebuilt came before this page existed: they were built afterward from only what was known by the end of that week.

Watch the biggest plays from Texas Tech’s games, ranked by how much each moved the chance to win.

Report card

Above the median on both sides of the ball — 68th percentile offense, 56th percentile defense.

Texas Tech, every completed season graded against the whole field, then averaged.

Offense

of which —68th

efficiency — 68th percentile success rate, 2022–25

B66th

Standard-downs success

B66th

Passing-downs success

B+77th

Trench push (line yards)

B+78th

Red-zone scoring rate

B+72nd

Power-success (short yardage)

D23rd

Ball security (giveaways per game)

Defense

B-

of which —56th

56th percentile SP+ defense, 2022–25

B+74th

Front-7 havoc

B69th

Secondary havoc

B60th

Stuff rate (run defense)

B61st

Takeaways per game

Each season is his team’s percentile among every team with that stat (the share it beat), averaged over his completed seasons here; a mid-season takeover year and the season in progress aren’t graded. Letters: A+ 90th percentile and up, A 80, B+ 70, B 60, B− 50, C+ 45, C 40, C− 30, D 15, F below.

Poach watch

This winter

8%chance he leaves this winter for a head-coaching job elsewhere, or an NFL coordinator jobSettled28th-highest of 132 FBS head coaches

0%50%+

Our poach model, on his record so far, the win chances for every game he has left, his program, his pay and his background. Ranked against the 132 FBS head coaches this season. The zone words describe the market’s interest; none of them says he is leaving.

What drives his number

The biggest factors in his profile, each against the typical FBS head coach today. The games he has left are priced into the number, not listed here.

▲ Higher
His team is 7-1, outscoring opponents by 14.5 points a game · AP-ranked
▲ Higher
His 5th season at Texas Tech
▲ Higher
20-7 over his previous two seasons here

How good is this number? It ranks a head coach who leaves for another head-coaching job ahead of one who stays 78 to 82% of the time, and its average came within a point of the share who actually left. What it can’t do

Tested on every FBS head coach from 2012 through 2025, each season scored by a model fit only on the seasons before it. From three games on, given one coach who left for a head-coaching job elsewhere or an NFL coordinator job and one who stayed, it ranked the one who left ahead 79 to 82% of the time; in a season’s first two games, 78%. Its average chance came within a point of the share who actually left. It counts a move a coach makes while he still holds the job; when his school ends it, that doesn’t count, even if another school then hires him.

The live number prices the games he has left with the power model’s ratings from this season. The test priced them with each team’s rating from the season before, because ratings made during past seasons were not kept, so this live version could not be replayed.
Programs new to FBS have no FBS record before this season in the data it reads, so their coaches are scored without one.
It is frozen: it learns nothing from 2026 until a deliberate refit.
A coach hired in December needs his background (age, alma mater, the state he was born in) added before his first game, or he shows as not rated.

Stats

Big games

The big-game ledger

How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.

4-4 against his rivals. Just 1-2 against Chris Klieman.

Rivalry record

4-4

50.0% · 3 rivals

ATS 5-3 · all 8 had a line

One-score games

15-5

75.0% · margin ≤8

Against the spread

37-24

+1.5 pts a game vs. the line

all 61 had a line

6th best of 163 coaching jobs since 2013

Rivalry ledger

Oklahoma State2-167%ATS —

Baylor1-233%ATS —

Texas1-150%ATS —

The toughest matchup

vs. Chris Klieman1-2

3 meetings, 2022–2025

’22 L’23 L · blew a 4-pt lead’25 W · erased a 7-pt deficit

covered the spread

33% win rate across a real, 3-meeting series — short of the bar this site uses before badging a series “Nemesis.” Shown here as the toughest matchup on record, not an algorithmic crown.

Performance by opponent class

Power Program

6-9 40.0%ATS 8-7 15 of 15

National Program

22-7 75.9%ATS 18-11 29 of 29

Regional Program

9-3 75.0%ATS 8-4 12 of 12

ATS is his record against the spread: did his team beat the closing betting line, winning by more than it or losing by less? Lines start in 2013; a dash means fewer than 6 of those games had one. One-score games carry no spread record: a big favorite that wins a close game has almost always failed to cover, so that number would say nothing about the coach.

Signature games

9-7 vs. AP top 25 · 1-3 vs. the top 10

Every AP-ranked regular-season opponent, by rank (#1 at top) and year

win loss · higher = higher-ranked opponent · dashed line = top 10

Signature wins

BYU · 2025

34-7

Quality opponentConference title game

Baylor · 2023

39-14

RivalQuality opponent

Oklahoma State · 2025

42-0

RivalQuality opponent

Signature losses

Texas · 2023

7-57

Rival

Baylor · 2024

35-59

RivalUpset

Oklahoma State · 2022

31-41

Rival

Tags describe each game; they aren’t scores. The weighting that picks these games is still being tested.

How he plays

more pass-heavy than 81% of FBS coaches →

Run/pass mix, by field position

Passed more than the situation called for under Kittley and Leftwich.

3,999 run and pass snaps at Texas Tech, 2022–2025, his own games, one row per offensive coordinator. Each cell is how much more often he passed than the rest of FBS did in the same situation (field zone, down, distance, score, quarter, same season), in percentage points.

backed upown territorymidfieldopp. territoryred zoneKittley2022–24+8+1+4+9+11Leftwich2025−6+3+2+7+8All years2022–25+4+1+3+9+10

passed moreran morewithin noise (95% range includes 0)

Pass rate, stint by stint

Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next, against the FBS-wide average of 41% pass. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.

Pass rate — share of offensive plays that were pass attemptsfirst covered seasonmost recent covered seasonfull season-to-season range (3+ covered seasons)

How much that is, against every other stint

Season-to-season pass-rate range for all 449 FBS coaching stints with at least three covered seasons, 2004–2025.

Typical stint7.010.3 median14.8middle half of all stints

Texas Tech10.3pt#228 of 449 · a typical amount

Building the roster

Five numbers on how he actually stocks a roster, from signing day to draft day.

1His recruiting
2Roster ownership
3Size up front
4Where he recruits
5The NFL pipeline

His recruiting, really

#32Nationally, his own classes

His 5 ranked Texas Tech classes of his own have averaged #32 nationally — best #18, worst #48.

2022

#43

His class

2023

#28

His class

2024

#25

His class

2025

#48

His class

2026

#18

His class

His class — he had the full signing cycle

Rank is each signing class’s national recruiting rank (#1 is best). Only a class he had a full signing cycle to build counts as his.

Roster ownership

100%His own players

of his 2026 roster arrived on his watch — 110 of 110 players. Nobody is left from before he was hired.

Of his own players on this roster, 26% came through the transfer portal; the rest are non-portal arrivals (high-school signees, JUCO transfers, walk-ons).

New players each season, 2022–2026

27% of his 240 new players since 2022 came through the portal (FBS programs, same seasons: 23%). His share was 22% in 2022 and 38% in 2026.

Graded on the players who arrived and the players who left together, his portal seasons came out better than most FBS programs’ in 3 and worse than most in 1 of the 5 seasons graded. our read

202212 of 55Portal grade: better than most — #3 of 131 FBS programs that season

20235 of 45Portal grade: worse than most — #105 of 130 FBS programs that season

202412 of 48Portal grade: about typical for FBS that season

202518 of 44Portal grade: better than most — #5 of 136 FBS programs that season

202618 of 48Portal grade: better than most — #9 of 136 FBS programs that season

Came through the portalNon-portal arrivalsFBS-wide share that season

Each player counts once, in the season he arrived. 2021, the first season of portal tracking here, is left off because its arrival records look incomplete (about 31 new players per FBS team, against 52 in 2022). Portal grade: the site’s position-value-weighted scoring (the same engine as the Portal Heat feed and the “Who won the portal” grade): the value of the players who came in minus the value of the ones who left, ranked against every FBS program’s grade that same season. A season with fewer than 4 transfers in and out is not graded.

“His own” means the player arrived while he was head coach; “inherited” means a predecessor brought him in.

Size up front

−2 lbAgainst the FBS average

Offensive linemen on his Texas Tech rosters have averaged within a few pounds of the FBS average (2022–2026). In the three seasons before he arrived, Texas Tech’s line averaged within a few pounds of the FBS average.

Texas Tech2022–2026−2 lb

His seasonsSame program, the seasons before he arrivedMiddle half of FBS coaching runs since 2010

Average listed weight of every offensive lineman on each season’s roster, holdovers included, against every FBS roster that season (2010 on; a program needs 3+ seasons under him to appear). Weights are the ones programs publish, and programs list differently. This describes size only — not scheme, and not quality.

Where he recruits

TXTop state

is his biggest recruiting state: 89 of 111 signees (80%) across his 2022–2026 tenure, drawn from 15 states in all. Next: LA (4).

Where his signees came from, 2022–2026 (111 high-school, JUCO and prep signees)

86% of his signees come from TX and its 4 border states (LA 4, OK 3).

Off this map: 6 signees to the east (AL 2, GA 2, others), 5 to the north (IA, MI, others) and 2 to the west (AZ, CA).

By region

South

102

Midwest

West

Roster distance from campus (Jones AT&T Stadium, TX)

median hometown distance: 363 mi
within 100 mi: 6%
within 500 mi: 68%
beyond 1,000 mi: 19%

103 of 110 roster players with a known hometown (94% coverage)

The map counts signed recruits across his tenure; the distance figures cover his current roster, transfers and walk-ons included. Two different groups, kept separate on purpose.

The NFL pipeline

14Drafted

players drafted into the NFL off his teams here. He brought in 9 of them himself; 5 arrived under Matt Wells. 2 went in the first round.

His recruits 9Inherited 514 roster-verified · 0 estimated

Most recent picks first

Year	Pick	Player	Pos	NFL team	Note
2026	R1.02	David Bailey	Defensive Edge	New York Jets
2026	R2.11	Jacob Rodriguez	Linebacker	Miami Dolphins
2026	R2.17	Lee Hunter	Defensive Tackle	Carolina Panthers
2026	R3.06	Romello Height	Defensive Edge	San Francisco 49ers
2026	R3.11	Caleb Douglas	Wide Receiver	Miami Dolphins
2026	R5.03	Reggie Virgil	Wide Receiver	Arizona Cardinals
2026	R6.24	Skyler Gill-Howard	Defensive Tackle	Detroit Lions
2026	R7.18	Behren Morton	Quarterback	New England Patriots	recruited under Matt Wells

Year	Pick	Player	Pos	NFL team	Note
2026	R7.28	Cole Wisniewski	Safety	Philadelphia Eagles
2025	R3.34	Caleb Rogers	Offensive Tackle	Las Vegas Raiders	recruited under Matt Wells
2025	R6.17	Tahj Brooks	Running Back	Cincinnati Bengals	recruited under Matt Wells
2024	R4.04	Dadrion Taylor-Demerson	Safety	Arizona Cardinals	recruited under Matt Wells
2024	R7.16	Myles Cole	Defensive Edge	Jacksonville Jaguars
2023	R1.07	Tyree Wilson	Defensive End	Las Vegas Raiders	recruited under Matt Wells

A pick counts toward his tenure when the player’s final college season was one he coached, a checkable rule rather than a claim about who developed the player. A blank note means the player is on a verified roster and arrived on his watch. “Estimated” means no roster record, so the final season is assumed to be the year before the draft.

Career

Coaching career

1 conference title

See Texas Tech’s full coaching history →

The arc of his career is on Now.

Steady no large move in either direction on our stature ladder

2022–now

Texas Tech Steady≈

National Program II → Power Program III

Closest comparable run: Jeff Tedford’s Fresno State run (2017–2019, 2022–2023)

Joey McGuire moved Texas Tech from National Program II to Power Program III in 5 seasons.

+11.5 pts over 5 seasons · top 4% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)

3rd-best Texas Tech tenure of 15 by the numbers.

Followed Matt Wells (2019–2021).

System Shift, on arrival

Season	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Record & result
Record	8-5	7-6	8-5	12-2	7-1
Postseason	W bowl	W bowl	L bowl	CFP loss	—
Coordinators
OC	Zach Kittley	Zach Kittley	Zach Kittley	Mack Leftwich	Mack Leftwich
DC	Tim DeRuyter	Tim DeRuyter	Tim DeRuyter	Shiel Wood	Shiel Wood / Rob Greene
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	61	31	71	75	59
Defense	65	63	19	100	83
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%	55.8	46.5	48.0	49.3	46.8
Red-zone pass%	46.1	54.8	54.5	48.8	34.7
4th-down go%opp. territory	59.3	48.8	37.0	30.8	36.7

Recruiter or developer?

Performs about as expected for his recruiting talent, on both sides of the ball.

Offense vs. talent

+2.7 pts

#98 of 208 · middle half

Defense vs. talent

+5.7 pts

#77 of 208 · middle half

Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Who they bring in

Brings in bigger-than-position-typical players than most.

A typical class-year mix of incoming transfers.

Avg. size (raw)

6′3″, 249 lbs

across 65 of 81 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix

Size vs. position-typical

+7.4 lbs

#50 of 255 · top quarter

Avg. class year

#114 of 255 · middle half

Avg. portal rating

3.2★

rated arrivals only

Top states: TX (19), FL (5), GA (5), MO (3), CA (3)

Notable portal arrivals with a modeled NIL value

Austin Romaine On3 modeled · $1,000,000Adam Trick On3 modeled · $1,000,000Brendan Sorsby On3 modeled · $2,014,429Brice Pollock On3 modeled · $1,000,000Micah Hudson On3 modeled · $1,000,000Howard Sampson On3 modeled · $2,000,000Mateen Ibirogba On3 modeled · $1,000,000

On3’s modeled estimate (social reach / exposure), not money actually paid — shown per player, never totaled.

Who won the portal our read

Talent added

64.9

position-weighted

Talent lost

56.5

position-weighted

Net

+8.4

arrivals minus departures

Best addition: Brendan Sorsby (QB) from Cincinnati

Biggest loss: Donovan Smith (QB) to Houston

Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.

Does the system survive a coordinator change?

DC: Shiel Wood → Shiel Wood / Rob Greene (co) · 2026

1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.

Where the roster comes from, by position

Buys Tight end via the portal

67%

#23 of 188 stints

Grows Running back from high school

75%

#162 of 208 stints

Postseason detail2022: Beat Ole Miss 42-25 TaxAct Texas Bowl2023: Beat California 34-14 Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl2024: Lost to Arkansas 26-39 AutoZone Liberty Bowl2025: Lost to Oregon 0-23 College Football Playoff Quarterfinal at the Capital One Orange Bowl

4 player-seasons honored (All-America / national award): Tyree Wilson (2022), David Bailey (2025), Lee Hunter (2025), Jacob Rodriguez (2025)

AI Narratives — “Texas Tech's Offseason Moves Reflect Dynasty Aspirations” and 16 more on the team page.

42-19

Was he good?

Program lift

#3 in the Big 12

#13 of 79 current FBS coaches with 3+ seasons · #185 of 1,290 tenures since 1937

The data leans positive, where the data can separate from zero: every conclusive reading points the same way.

Raised the program

+11.5 pts at Texas Tech · #185 of 1290 · top quarter

Beat his talent

Offense vs. talent

+2.7 pts

#98 of 208 · middle half · 4 covered seasons

Defense vs. talent

+5.7 pts

#77 of 208 · middle half · 4 covered seasons

His own effect, isolated?

Offense marginal impact

+0.01

not distinguishable from zero

Defense marginal impact

+0.22

not distinguishable from zero

Model fit as of 2026-09-04.

Joey McGuire

Now

Career arc

This week Wed Nov 4

What the result changed

Saturday: vs. WVUWest Virginia

Many stories this week →

The headlines, Nov 1–4 from several outlets

Offense: 66th of 138 per play. Defense: 17th.

4 games left

How the season got here

Report card

Offense

Defense

Poach watch

What drives his number

Fans

Fan chatter

Many stories about him this week

What they’re talking about

Dozens of stories about him this season

What they’re talking about

208 stories about him across 5 seasons

Stats

Big games

The big-game ledger

Signature games

How he plays

Run/pass mix, by field position

Building the roster

His recruiting, really

Roster ownership

Size up front

Where he recruits

The NFL pipeline

News

Stories about him

This week

This season

In his own words

In his own words

Career

Coaching career

Was he good?

Saturday: vs. West Virginia