K.C. Keeler

Head coach · Temple
2nd season · since 2025 · Sam Houston before

At Temple7-13since 2025 · 2-6 this seasonHot seatWarm13% · 30th of 132 jobsLast gameL 9-17at East Carolina · Oct 31Nextat NavySat Nov 7 · 3:30 pm ET · CBS Sports Network
This week · as of Wed Nov 4

2-6, lost 3 straight, on track for 4-8 in the regular season.

Now

Career arc

Stature score reached, by season of his head-coaching careerSam HoustonTempleRegional Programthe building-block levelSam Houston, 2023: 3-9, Regional Program VSam Houston, 2023: 3-9, Regional Program V20233-9Sam Houston, 2024: 9-3, Regional Program IVSam Houston, 2024: 9-3, Regional Program IV20249-3Temple when he took over: 11.3 (Regional Program IV), its final 2024 readingtook overTemple, 2025: 5-7, Regional Program IVTemple, 2025: 5-7, Regional Program IV20255-7Temple, 2026: 2-6, Regional Program IVTemple, 2026: 2-6, Regional Program IV20262-6+0.6best: 2025○ the program when he took over · Dashed segments are program changes — spacing is not proportional to calendar time

This week Wed Nov 4

  • Last gameL 9-17 at East Carolina Sat Oct 31
  • This season2-6 lost 3 straight
  • Hot seat13% 30th of 132
  • On track for4-8 regular season
  • Nextat Navy Sat Nov 7
  • Stature113th of 138 FBS programs

Win and he’s at 9%. Lose and he’s at 14%.

at Navy, Sat Nov 7, 3:30 pm ET CBS Sports Network · Navy is 2-6 · Keeler vs. Brian Newberry: 0-1 · Temple’s chance to win: 29% (the site’s model)

CoolWarmHotBoilingIf Temple wins: 9%, 39th of 132Now: 13%If Temple loses: 14%, 27th of 1320%50%+
CoolWarmHotBoiling0%50%+
  • If Temple wins: 9%, 39th of 132
  • Now: 13%
  • If Temple loses: 14%, 27th of 132
His chance of being out after the season, now and after Saturday. Each tick is an FBS head coach’s number today; ranks are against today’s field. From the site’s hot-seat model.

Is he getting fired?

13% chance he’s out after the season · 30th of 132 FBS head coaches · Warm

Coolunder 10%Warm10–20%Hot20–35%Boiling35% upNow8% had they won8% had they wonLoss 14%Win 9%8%5%6%8%8%5%8%12%13%Pre1W vs. Rhode IslandW2L vs. Penn StateL3L at ToledoL4L vs. ArmyL5W at South FloridaW6L vs. UConnL7L vs. CharlotteL8L at East CarolinaL9Chance to win at Navy29%10Chance to win vs. UAB39%11Chance to win vs. Rice67%12Chance to win at Memphis16%Game number. Under each game: the result, or his team’s chance to win it
CoolWarmHotBoilingNow8% had they wonLoss 14%Win 9%8%13%Pre368912Game
Dark line: his number after each game; a small dot just before a game is where it stood at kickoff, after other results moved it. Gray: where it could go, 8 seasons in 10 (darker, the middle half). The hollow dot: had his last game gone the other way. From the site’s hot-seat model.

If he finishes…

Bar: how likely that finish isNumber: his chance of being out

  1. 2-1020%
  2. 3-913%
  3. 4-89%
  4. 5-76%
  5. 6-63%
Why his number is where it is

Our hot-seat model, on his record so far, the win chances for every game he has left, and his contract (a bigger buyout, relative to pay, makes a change costlier). Ranked against the 132 FBS head coaches with 3+ games this season.

Now hotter than at this point in 2025.

His hot seat, week by week

The chance he’s out by the end of that season, as it stood after every week of his tenure here, by today’s model.

BoilingHotWarmCool202520262025, week 3 (3 games in): 1%, 87th-hottest of 118 FBS jobs2025, week 4 (4 games in): 1%, 96th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 5 (4 games in): 1%, 91st-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 6 (5 games in): 1%, 98th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 7 (6 games in): 1%, 97th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 8 (7 games in): 1%, 97th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 9 (8 games in): 1%, 99th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 10 (9 games in): 1%, 97th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 11 (10 games in): 1%, 91st-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 12 (10 games in): 1%, 87th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 13 (11 games in): 1%, 83rd-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 14 (12 games in): 1%, 80th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 15 (12 games in): 1%, 80th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 16 (12 games in): 1%, 80th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2026, week 3 (3 games in): 8%, 50th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2026, week 4 (4 games in): 8%, 50th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 5 (5 games in): 5%, 63rd-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 6 (6 games in): 8%, 49th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 7 (7 games in): 12%, 40th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 8 (7 games in): 12%, 38th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 9 (8 games in): 13%, 34th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 10 (8 games in): 13%, 30th-hottest of 132 FBS jobsnow

Earlier seasons price the games left with power ratings rebuilt after those seasons ended.

What drives his number

The biggest factors, each against the typical FBS job today.

  • ▲ Hotter
    2-6, outscored by 24
  • ▲ Hotter
    5-7 over his previous season here
  • ▼ Cooler
    Year 2 · tenure, which this model overrates
    (why?)

    Tenure is one of this model’s strongest inputs, but its weight was set when retirements like Nick Saban’s and Bob Stoops’ still counted as being pushed out, so it overstates how much tenure matters.

What happened to coaches like him, 2004–2025

A different comparison: past coaches, not today’s, grouped by one fact at a time. Neither line knows the games he has left or his contract, so they can sit above or below his chance.

Were 2-6 after 8 games
16% pushed out over results · of 288 coaches
Were in year 2, after 8 games
5% pushed out over results · of 469 coaches
The outcome
Pushed out over results — a firing, forced resignation, mutual parting or non-renewal, each read case by case. Leaving for a better job, or retiring on his own terms, doesn’t count.
Buyout
No figure on file for this coach. The salary database predates the last coaching carousel; a name mismatch is suppressed rather than misattributed.

How good is this number? Checked on every FBS coach from 2010 to 2025, with its percentages calibrated each season on earlier years only: they track what happened — coaches it put near 25% were out about a quarter of the time — and a version pricing the games left with the previous season’s ratings ranked jobs as well as the ranking this page used before. Each week it learns from coaches who were still on the job at that point, so a firing during the season counts. In the Boiling zone it has run a few points high. Every job, and the method.

One headline named him in the last 7 days

85th of 138 FBS head coaches

The headlines, Nov 1–4

What they are talking about, week and season

Offense: 54th of 138 per play. Defense: 122nd.

Offense, per play54thOffense, starting field position136thDefense, per play122ndPass defense127thWorstBest
Offense, per play54th of 138Offense, starting field position136th of 138Defense, per play122nd of 138Pass defense127th of 138WorstBest
Through 8 games. Each tick is an FBS team, adjusted for opponent strength (CFB Zeitgeist model); the dot is Temple. The other two rows are where Temple stands furthest from the middle. Early-season numbers move a lot.

4 games left

  1. Sat Nov 7at Navy (2-6)CBS Sports Network29%
  2. Sat Nov 14vs. UAB (4-4)ESPN+39%
  3. Thu Nov 19vs. Rice (1-7)ESPN67%
  4. Fri Nov 27at Memphis (7-2)ESPN16%

Percent: Temple’s chance to win, from the site’s model. Records are through today. Networks as announced; the rest are set closer to kickoff.

How the season got here

Where Temple stood among 138 FBS programs by stature after each game (1st is the highest; the CFB Zeitgeist ledger).

108th114th120thPreseason116thRhode Island W 38-14Rhode Island W 38-14W 38-14Rhode Island115thPenn State L 9-27Penn State L 9-27L 9-27Penn State115thToledo L 48-49Toledo L 48-49L 48-49Toledo114thArmy L 17-21Army L 17-21L 17-21Army113thSouth Florida W 17-13South Florida W 17-13W 17-13South Florida112thUConn L 20-34UConn L 20-34L 20-34UConn113thCharlotte L 31-38Charlotte L 31-38L 31-38Charlotte115thEast Carolina L 9-17East Carolina L 9-17L 9-17East Carolina112th
  1. Oct 26–Nov 1L 9-17 at East Carolina1 headline · 87th of 138
  2. Oct 19–25No game2 headlines · 73rd of 138What Now For Temple Football After "Single Most Embarrassing Game" of K.C. Keeler's Career? Crossing Broad
  3. Oct 12–18L 31-38 vs. Charlotte2 headlines · 74th of 138
  4. Oct 5–11L 20-34 vs. UConn1 headline · 83rd of 138
  5. Sep 28–Oct 4W 17-13 at South Florida0 headlines
  6. Sep 21–27 · rebuiltL 17-21 vs. Army1 headline · 83rd of 138Temple ‘needed to make one more play’ vs. Army, but coach K.C. Keeler found silver linings in the loss Inquirer.com

Each week as this page showed it at the time. Weeks marked rebuilt came before this page existed: they were built afterward from only what was known by the end of that week.

Watch the biggest plays from Temple’s games, ranked by how much each moved the chance to win.