Kirk Ferentz

Head coach · Iowa
28th season · since 1999

At Iowa219-130since 1999 · 6-2 this seasonHot seatCool7% · 45th of 132 jobsLast gameW 30-0vs Wisconsin · Oct 31Nextat NorthwesternSat Nov 7 · 7:30 pm ET · FOX
This week · as of Wed Nov 4

6-2, on track for 9-3 in the regular season.

Now

Career arc

Bowls and playoffs: 11-11

’01W’02L’03W’04W’05L’06L’08W’09W’10W’11L’13L’14L’15L’16L’17W’18W’19W’21L’22W’23L’24L’25W

Show all 22 games
2001Alamo BowlW 19-162002Orange BowlL 17-382003Outback BowlW 37-172004Capital One BowlW 30-252005Outback BowlL 24-312006Alamo BowlL 24-262008Outback BowlW 31-102009Orange BowlW 24-142010Insight BowlW 27-242011Insight BowlL 14-312013Outback BowlL 14-212014TaxSlayer BowlL 28-452015Rose BowlL 16-452016Outback BowlL 3-302017Pinstripe BowlW 27-202018Outback BowlW 27-222019Holiday BowlW 49-242021Citrus BowlL 17-202022Music City BowlW 21-02023Citrus BowlL 0-352024Music City BowlL 24-272025ReliaQuest BowlW 34-27

This week Wed Nov 4

  • Last gameW 30-0 vs. Wisconsin Sat Oct 31
  • This season6-2
  • Hot seat7% 45th of 132
  • On track for9-3 regular season
  • Nextat Northwestern Sat Nov 7
  • Stature22nd of 138 FBS programs

What the result changed

  • AP poll unranked → #21 into the poll
  • Playoff odds 1% → 3% CFB Zeitgeist forecast, before and after

Win and he’s at 4%. Lose and he’s at 8%.

at Northwestern, Sat Nov 7, 7:30 pm ET FOX · Northwestern is 6-2 · Ferentz vs. David Braun: 2-0 · Iowa’s chance to win: 39% (the site’s model)

CoolWarmHotBoilingIf Iowa wins: 4%, 61st of 132Now: 7%If Iowa loses: 8%, 41st of 1320%50%+
CoolWarmHotBoiling0%50%+
  • If Iowa wins: 4%, 61st of 132
  • Now: 7%
  • If Iowa loses: 8%, 41st of 132
His chance of being out after the season, now and after Saturday. Each tick is an FBS head coach’s number today; ranks are against today’s field. From the site’s hot-seat model.

Is he getting fired?

7% chance he’s out after the season · 45th of 132 FBS head coaches · Cool

Coolunder 10%Warm10–20%Hot20–35%Boiling35% upNow16% had they lost16% had they lostLoss 8%Win 4%11%12%10%11%6%11%7%13%7%Pre1W vs. Northern IllinoisW2W vs. Iowa StateW3W vs. Northern IowaW4W at MichiganW5L vs. Ohio StateL6W at WashingtonW7L at MinnesotaL8W vs. WisconsinW9Chance to win at Northwestern39%10Chance to win vs. Purdue88%11Chance to win at Illinois80%12Chance to win vs. Nebraska60%Game number. Under each game: the result, or his team’s chance to win it
CoolWarmHotBoilingNow16% had they lost16% had they lostLoss 8%Win 4%11%7%Pre368912Game
Dark line: his number after each game; a small dot just before a game is where it stood at kickoff, after other results moved it. Gray: where it could go, 8 seasons in 10 (darker, the middle half). The hollow dot: had his last game gone the other way. From the site’s hot-seat model.

If he finishes…

Bar: how likely that finish isNumber: his chance of being out

  1. 7-514%
  2. 8-48%
  3. 9-34%
  4. 10-22%
Why his number is where it is

Our hot-seat model, on his record so far, the win chances for every game he has left, and his contract (a bigger buyout, relative to pay, makes a change costlier). Ranked against the 132 FBS head coaches with 3+ games this season.

Now right where 2025 was at this point.

His hot seat, week by week

The chance he’s out by the end of that season, as it stood after every week of his tenure here, by today’s model.

BoilingHotWarmCool200420072010201320162019202220262004, week 4 (3 games in): 6%, 40th-hottest of 86 FBS jobs2004, week 5 (4 games in): 6%, 55th-hottest of 113 FBS jobs2004, week 6 (5 games in): 4%, 71st-hottest of 116 FBS jobs2004, week 7 (5 games in): 4%, 67th-hottest of 116 FBS jobs2004, week 8 (6 games in): 3%, 76th-hottest of 116 FBS jobs2004, week 9 (7 games in): 2%, 88th-hottest of 116 FBS jobs2004, week 10 (8 games in): 1%, 94th-hottest of 116 FBS jobs2004, week 11 (9 games in): 1%, 101st-hottest of 116 FBS jobs2004, week 12 (10 games in): <1%, 106th-hottest of 116 FBS jobs2004, week 13 (11 games in): <1%, 108th-hottest of 116 FBS jobs2004, week 14 (11 games in): <1%, 107th-hottest of 116 FBS jobs2004, week 15 (11 games in): <1%, 105th-hottest of 116 FBS jobs2005, week 3 (3 games in): 6%, 42nd-hottest of 79 FBS jobs2005, week 4 (4 games in): 6%, 51st-hottest of 109 FBS jobs2005, week 5 (5 games in): 5%, 62nd-hottest of 118 FBS jobs2005, week 6 (6 games in): 3%, 72nd-hottest of 118 FBS jobs2005, week 7 (7 games in): 3%, 72nd-hottest of 118 FBS jobs2005, week 8 (8 games in): 3%, 64th-hottest of 118 FBS jobs2005, week 9 (8 games in): 3%, 65th-hottest of 118 FBS jobs2005, week 10 (9 games in): 4%, 62nd-hottest of 118 FBS jobs2005, week 11 (10 games in): 3%, 68th-hottest of 118 FBS jobs2005, week 12 (11 games in): 2%, 80th-hottest of 118 FBS jobs2005, week 13 (11 games in): 2%, 76th-hottest of 118 FBS jobs2005, week 14 (11 games in): 2%, 73rd-hottest of 118 FBS jobs2006, week 3 (3 games in): 1%, 94th-hottest of 105 FBS jobs2006, week 4 (4 games in): 1%, 106th-hottest of 117 FBS jobs2006, week 5 (5 games in): 1%, 105th-hottest of 118 FBS jobs2006, week 6 (6 games in): <1%, 106th-hottest of 118 FBS jobs2006, week 7 (7 games in): 1%, 102nd-hottest of 118 FBS jobs2006, week 8 (8 games in): 1%, 98th-hottest of 118 FBS jobs2006, week 9 (9 games in): 1%, 98th-hottest of 118 FBS jobs2006, week 10 (10 games in): 1%, 89th-hottest of 118 FBS jobs2006, week 11 (11 games in): 1%, 83rd-hottest of 118 FBS jobs2006, week 12 (12 games in): 2%, 79th-hottest of 118 FBS jobs2006, week 13 (12 games in): 2%, 78th-hottest of 118 FBS jobs2006, week 14 (12 games in): 2%, 78th-hottest of 118 FBS jobs2007, week 3 (3 games in): 3%, 70th-hottest of 105 FBS jobs2007, week 4 (4 games in): 4%, 68th-hottest of 119 FBS jobs2007, week 5 (5 games in): 7%, 56th-hottest of 119 FBS jobs2007, week 6 (6 games in): 8%, 51st-hottest of 119 FBS jobs2007, week 7 (7 games in): 6%, 54th-hottest of 119 FBS jobs2007, week 8 (8 games in): 7%, 50th-hottest of 119 FBS jobs2007, week 9 (9 games in): 4%, 61st-hottest of 119 FBS jobs2007, week 10 (10 games in): 3%, 65th-hottest of 119 FBS jobs2007, week 11 (11 games in): 2%, 70th-hottest of 119 FBS jobs2007, week 12 (12 games in): 4%, 62nd-hottest of 119 FBS jobs2007, week 13 (12 games in): 4%, 58th-hottest of 119 FBS jobs2007, week 14 (12 games in): 4%, 58th-hottest of 119 FBS jobs2008, week 3 (3 games in): 4%, 52nd-hottest of 81 FBS jobs2008, week 4 (4 games in): 6%, 61st-hottest of 117 FBS jobs2008, week 5 (5 games in): 7%, 55th-hottest of 119 FBS jobs2008, week 6 (6 games in): 6%, 56th-hottest of 119 FBS jobs2008, week 7 (7 games in): 4%, 61st-hottest of 119 FBS jobs2008, week 8 (8 games in): 3%, 66th-hottest of 119 FBS jobs2008, week 9 (8 games in): 3%, 66th-hottest of 119 FBS jobs2008, week 10 (9 games in): 4%, 60th-hottest of 119 FBS jobs2008, week 11 (10 games in): 3%, 71st-hottest of 119 FBS jobs2008, week 12 (11 games in): 2%, 77th-hottest of 119 FBS jobs2008, week 13 (12 games in): 1%, 81st-hottest of 119 FBS jobs2008, week 14 (12 games in): 1%, 80th-hottest of 119 FBS jobs2008, week 15 (12 games in): 1%, 79th-hottest of 119 FBS jobs2009, week 3 (3 games in): 2%, 70th-hottest of 101 FBS jobs2009, week 4 (4 games in): 2%, 88th-hottest of 119 FBS jobs2009, week 5 (5 games in): 2%, 91st-hottest of 119 FBS jobs2009, week 6 (6 games in): 1%, 97th-hottest of 119 FBS jobs2009, week 7 (7 games in): 1%, 104th-hottest of 119 FBS jobs2009, week 8 (8 games in): <1%, 107th-hottest of 119 FBS jobs2009, week 9 (9 games in): <1%, 108th-hottest of 119 FBS jobs2009, week 10 (10 games in): <1%, 102nd-hottest of 119 FBS jobs2009, week 11 (11 games in): <1%, 102nd-hottest of 119 FBS jobs2009, week 12 (12 games in): <1%, 108th-hottest of 119 FBS jobs2009, week 13 (12 games in): <1%, 103rd-hottest of 119 FBS jobs2009, week 14 (12 games in): <1%, 103rd-hottest of 119 FBS jobs2009, week 15 (12 games in): <1%, 103rd-hottest of 119 FBS jobs2010, week 3 (3 games in): 3%, 66th-hottest of 102 FBS jobs2010, week 4 (4 games in): 2%, 88th-hottest of 119 FBS jobs2010, week 5 (5 games in): 1%, 92nd-hottest of 119 FBS jobs2010, week 6 (5 games in): 1%, 87th-hottest of 119 FBS jobs2010, week 7 (6 games in): 1%, 94th-hottest of 119 FBS jobs2010, week 8 (7 games in): 1%, 94th-hottest of 119 FBS jobs2010, week 9 (8 games in): 1%, 98th-hottest of 119 FBS jobs2010, week 10 (9 games in): 1%, 94th-hottest of 119 FBS jobs2010, week 11 (10 games in): 1%, 90th-hottest of 119 FBS jobs2010, week 12 (11 games in): 1%, 84th-hottest of 119 FBS jobs2010, week 13 (12 games in): 1%, 86th-hottest of 119 FBS jobs2010, week 14 (12 games in): 1%, 85th-hottest of 119 FBS jobs2010, week 15 (12 games in): 1%, 85th-hottest of 119 FBS jobs2011, week 3 (3 games in): 3%, 62nd-hottest of 99 FBS jobs2011, week 4 (4 games in): 2%, 79th-hottest of 119 FBS jobs2011, week 5 (4 games in): 2%, 78th-hottest of 119 FBS jobs2011, week 6 (5 games in): 3%, 70th-hottest of 119 FBS jobs2011, week 7 (6 games in): 2%, 74th-hottest of 119 FBS jobs2011, week 8 (7 games in): 2%, 74th-hottest of 119 FBS jobs2011, week 9 (8 games in): 2%, 70th-hottest of 119 FBS jobs2011, week 10 (9 games in): 1%, 75th-hottest of 119 FBS jobs2011, week 11 (10 games in): 2%, 73rd-hottest of 119 FBS jobs2011, week 12 (11 games in): 1%, 80th-hottest of 119 FBS jobs2011, week 13 (12 games in): 1%, 74th-hottest of 119 FBS jobs2011, week 14 (12 games in): 1%, 74th-hottest of 119 FBS jobs2011, week 15 (12 games in): 1%, 74th-hottest of 119 FBS jobs2012, week 3 (3 games in): 9%, 35th-hottest of 101 FBS jobs2012, week 4 (4 games in): 12%, 32nd-hottest of 121 FBS jobs2012, week 5 (5 games in): 8%, 43rd-hottest of 123 FBS jobs2012, week 6 (5 games in): 8%, 42nd-hottest of 123 FBS jobs2012, week 7 (6 games in): 7%, 46th-hottest of 123 FBS jobs2012, week 8 (7 games in): 9%, 38th-hottest of 123 FBS jobs2012, week 9 (8 games in): 10%, 35th-hottest of 123 FBS jobs2012, week 10 (9 games in): 13%, 24th-hottest of 123 FBS jobs2012, week 11 (10 games in): 18%, 21st-hottest of 123 FBS jobs2012, week 12 (11 games in): 18%, 22nd-hottest of 123 FBS jobs2012, week 13 (12 games in): 18%, 20th-hottest of 123 FBS jobs2012, week 14 (12 games in): 18%, 20th-hottest of 123 FBS jobs2012, week 15 (12 games in): 18%, 20th-hottest of 123 FBS jobs2013, week 3 (3 games in): 14%, 22nd-hottest of 88 FBS jobs2013, week 4 (4 games in): 9%, 39th-hottest of 121 FBS jobs2013, week 5 (5 games in): 8%, 42nd-hottest of 124 FBS jobs2013, week 6 (6 games in): 9.7%, 40th-hottest of 124 FBS jobs2013, week 7 (6 games in): 9.7%, 38th-hottest of 124 FBS jobs2013, week 8 (7 games in): 10%, 37th-hottest of 124 FBS jobs2013, week 9 (8 games in): 8%, 42nd-hottest of 124 FBS jobs2013, week 10 (9 games in): 9%, 41st-hottest of 124 FBS jobs2013, week 11 (10 games in): 7%, 45th-hottest of 124 FBS jobs2013, week 12 (10 games in): 7%, 43rd-hottest of 124 FBS jobs2013, week 13 (11 games in): 4%, 49th-hottest of 124 FBS jobs2013, week 14 (12 games in): 2%, 58th-hottest of 124 FBS jobs2013, week 15 (12 games in): 2%, 58th-hottest of 124 FBS jobs2013, week 16 (12 games in): 2%, 58th-hottest of 124 FBS jobs2014, week 3 (3 games in): 12%, 29th-hottest of 95 FBS jobs2014, week 4 (4 games in): 8%, 50th-hottest of 125 FBS jobs2014, week 5 (5 games in): 6%, 65th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2014, week 6 (5 games in): 6%, 62nd-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2014, week 7 (6 games in): 5%, 67th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2014, week 8 (7 games in): 5%, 61st-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2014, week 9 (7 games in): 5%, 61st-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2014, week 10 (8 games in): 5%, 60th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2014, week 11 (9 games in): 6%, 56th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2014, week 12 (10 games in): 4%, 65th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2014, week 13 (11 games in): 4%, 59th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2014, week 14 (12 games in): 6%, 51st-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2014, week 15 (12 games in): 6%, 50th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2014, week 16 (12 games in): 6%, 50th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2015, week 3 (3 games in): 3%, 76th-hottest of 115 FBS jobs2015, week 4 (4 games in): 2%, 89th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2015, week 5 (5 games in): 2%, 95th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2015, week 6 (6 games in): 1%, 109th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2015, week 7 (7 games in): <1%, 112th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2015, week 8 (7 games in): <1%, 110th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2015, week 9 (8 games in): <1%, 113th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2015, week 10 (9 games in): <1%, 116th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2015, week 11 (10 games in): <1%, 117th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2015, week 12 (11 games in): <1%, 118th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2015, week 13 (12 games in): <1%, 118th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2015, week 14 (12 games in): <1%, 118th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2015, week 15 (12 games in): <1%, 118th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2016, week 3 (3 games in): 11%, 35th-hottest of 113 FBS jobs2016, week 4 (4 games in): 9%, 46th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2016, week 5 (5 games in): 13%, 35th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2016, week 6 (6 games in): 9%, 46th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2016, week 7 (7 games in): 8%, 54th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2016, week 8 (8 games in): 9%, 40th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2016, week 9 (8 games in): 9%, 40th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2016, week 10 (9 games in): 9%, 38th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2016, week 11 (10 games in): 5%, 55th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2016, week 12 (11 games in): 3%, 63rd-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2016, week 13 (12 games in): 2%, 71st-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2016, week 14 (12 games in): 2%, 69th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2016, week 15 (12 games in): 2%, 69th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2017, week 3 (3 games in): 5%, 58th-hottest of 105 FBS jobs2017, week 4 (4 games in): 5%, 65th-hottest of 126 FBS jobs2017, week 5 (5 games in): 6%, 65th-hottest of 129 FBS jobs2017, week 6 (6 games in): 5%, 67th-hottest of 129 FBS jobs2017, week 7 (6 games in): 5%, 69th-hottest of 129 FBS jobs2017, week 8 (7 games in): 6%, 63rd-hottest of 129 FBS jobs2017, week 9 (8 games in): 4%, 73rd-hottest of 129 FBS jobs2017, week 10 (9 games in): 2%, 82nd-hottest of 129 FBS jobs2017, week 11 (10 games in): 3%, 74th-hottest of 129 FBS jobs2017, week 12 (11 games in): 3%, 72nd-hottest of 129 FBS jobs2017, week 13 (12 games in): 2%, 75th-hottest of 129 FBS jobs2017, week 14 (12 games in): 2%, 75th-hottest of 129 FBS jobs2017, week 15 (12 games in): 2%, 75th-hottest of 129 FBS jobs2018, week 3 (3 games in): 4%, 63rd-hottest of 110 FBS jobs2018, week 4 (4 games in): 5%, 66th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2018, week 5 (4 games in): 5%, 68th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2018, week 6 (5 games in): 2%, 83rd-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2018, week 7 (6 games in): 2%, 87th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2018, week 8 (7 games in): 1%, 92nd-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2018, week 9 (8 games in): 2%, 79th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2018, week 10 (9 games in): 3%, 74th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2018, week 11 (10 games in): 3%, 70th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2018, week 12 (11 games in): 2%, 72nd-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2018, week 13 (12 games in): 1%, 78th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2018, week 14 (12 games in): 1%, 78th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2018, week 15 (12 games in): 1%, 78th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2019, week 3 (3 games in): 4%, 57th-hottest of 106 FBS jobs2019, week 4 (3 games in): 4%, 67th-hottest of 129 FBS jobs2019, week 5 (4 games in): 4%, 70th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2019, week 6 (5 games in): 4%, 61st-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2019, week 7 (6 games in): 5%, 58th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2019, week 8 (7 games in): 4%, 62nd-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2019, week 9 (8 games in): 3%, 67th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2019, week 10 (8 games in): 3%, 69th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2019, week 11 (9 games in): 4%, 64th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2019, week 12 (10 games in): 3%, 73rd-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2019, week 13 (11 games in): 2%, 77th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2019, week 14 (12 games in): <1%, 93rd-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2019, week 15 (12 games in): <1%, 93rd-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2020, week 10 (3 games in): 20%, 20th-hottest of 96 FBS jobs2020, week 11 (4 games in): 13%, 31st-hottest of 100 FBS jobs2020, week 12 (5 games in): 9%, 49th-hottest of 117 FBS jobs2020, week 13 (6 games in): 7%, 57th-hottest of 124 FBS jobs2020, week 14 (7 games in): 5%, 72nd-hottest of 126 FBS jobs2020, week 15 (8 games in): 2%, 90th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2020, week 16 (8 games in): 2%, 85th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2021, week 3 (3 games in): 8%, 55th-hottest of 125 FBS jobs2021, week 4 (4 games in): 5%, 68th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 5 (5 games in): 4%, 79th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 6 (6 games in): 3%, 81st-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 7 (7 games in): 5%, 70th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 8 (7 games in): 5%, 68th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 9 (8 games in): 6%, 64th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 10 (9 games in): 4%, 72nd-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 11 (10 games in): 3%, 76th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 12 (11 games in): 2%, 81st-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 13 (12 games in): <1%, 99th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 14 (12 games in): <1%, 99th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 15 (12 games in): <1%, 99th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2022, week 3 (3 games in): 11%, 40th-hottest of 125 FBS jobs2022, week 4 (4 games in): 9%, 47th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 5 (5 games in): 10%, 43rd-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 6 (6 games in): 12%, 38th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 7 (6 games in): 12%, 39th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 8 (7 games in): 12%, 40th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 9 (8 games in): 8%, 51st-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 10 (9 games in): 6%, 57th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 11 (10 games in): 4%, 69th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 12 (11 games in): 2%, 79th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 13 (12 games in): 4%, 62nd-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 14 (12 games in): 4%, 62nd-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 15 (12 games in): 4%, 62nd-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2023, week 3 (3 games in): 7%, 55th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2023, week 4 (4 games in): 9%, 51st-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 5 (5 games in): 7%, 58th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 6 (6 games in): 4%, 67th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 7 (7 games in): 3%, 75th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 8 (8 games in): 5%, 67th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 9 (8 games in): 5%, 65th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 10 (9 games in): 3%, 73rd-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 11 (10 games in): 2%, 82nd-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 12 (11 games in): 1%, 88th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 13 (12 games in): <1%, 102nd-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 14 (12 games in): <1%, 102nd-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 15 (12 games in): <1%, 102nd-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2024, week 3 (3 games in): 18%, 23rd-hottest of 111 FBS jobs2024, week 4 (4 games in): 14%, 36th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 5 (4 games in): 14%, 38th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 6 (5 games in): 13%, 36th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 7 (6 games in): 11%, 42nd-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 8 (7 games in): 12%, 40th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 9 (8 games in): 8%, 45th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 10 (9 games in): 6%, 50th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 11 (10 games in): 8%, 46th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 12 (10 games in): 8%, 46th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 13 (11 games in): 6%, 50th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 14 (12 games in): 4%, 54th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 15 (12 games in): 4%, 54th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 16 (12 games in): 4%, 54th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2025, week 3 (3 games in): 26%, 10th-hottest of 118 FBS jobs2025, week 4 (4 games in): 21%, 25th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 5 (5 games in): 19%, 27th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 6 (5 games in): 19%, 28th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 7 (6 games in): 16%, 32nd-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 8 (7 games in): 10%, 42nd-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 9 (8 games in): 8%, 48th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 10 (8 games in): 8%, 47th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 11 (9 games in): 8%, 46th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 12 (10 games in): 9%, 42nd-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 13 (11 games in): 8%, 45th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 14 (12 games in): 5%, 52nd-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 15 (12 games in): 5%, 52nd-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 16 (12 games in): 5%, 52nd-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2026, week 3 (3 games in): 11%, 43rd-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2026, week 4 (4 games in): 6%, 57th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 5 (5 games in): 11%, 39th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 6 (6 games in): 7%, 56th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 7 (6 games in): 6%, 59th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 8 (7 games in): 13%, 32nd-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 9 (8 games in): 7%, 49th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 10 (8 games in): 7%, 45th-hottest of 132 FBS jobsnowHottest: 2025, week 3▲ Year 25 · tenure, which this model overratesEvery season ended Cool, 2013–2025

Hottest: 2025, week 3 (26%, 10th-hottest of 118 FBS jobs that week). Top factor: ▲ Hotter Year 25 · tenure, which this model overrates

Before 2006 there is no contract data, so those weeks read the on-field profile alone · earlier seasons price the games left with power ratings rebuilt after those seasons ended · his tenure here began before 2004, where this history starts.

What drives his number

The biggest factors, each against the typical FBS job today.

  • ▲ Hotter
    Year 26 · tenure, which this model overrates
    (why?)

    Tenure is one of this model’s strongest inputs, but its weight was set when retirements like Nick Saban’s and Bob Stoops’ still counted as being pushed out, so it overstates how much tenure matters. History alone points the other way: of 213 past coaches in year 10 or later at this point in a season, 6% were pushed out over results, against 13% of 1,454 in years 3–9.

  • ▼ Cooler
    6-2, outscoring opponents by 126 · AP-ranked
  • ▲ Hotter
    Power Program program, AP-ranked in the preseason · the bar going in

What happened to coaches like him, 2004–2025

A different comparison: past coaches, not today’s, grouped by one fact at a time. Neither line knows the games he has left or his contract, so they can sit above or below his chance.

Were 6-2 after 8 games
2% pushed out over results · of 389 coaches
Were in year 10 or later, after 8 games
6% pushed out over results · of 213 coaches
The outcome
Pushed out over results — a firing, forced resignation, mutual parting or non-renewal, each read case by case. Leaving for a better job, or retiring on his own terms, doesn’t count.
Buyout
$25,729,167 USA Today estimate (Oct. 2025) — not a disclosed figure · 3.6× total pay · a large buyout, which lowers his chance of being let go · without it: 9.5%

How good is this number? Checked on every FBS coach from 2010 to 2025, with its percentages calibrated each season on earlier years only: they track what happened — coaches it put near 25% were out about a quarter of the time — and a version pricing the games left with the previous season’s ratings ranked jobs as well as the ranking this page used before. Each week it learns from coaches who were still on the job at that point, so a firing during the season counts. In the Boiling zone it has run a few points high. Every job, and the method.

His week

Iowa Hawkeyes · 11,261 views by Wednesday

More of him this week

Media session, Northwestern weekTue Nov 3 · Iowa Hawkeyes · 8,220 views by Wednesday

Many stories this week →

The headlines, Nov 1–4 from several outlets

Fans are frustrated with Iowa

Losing the Bull would hurt more than losing the Pig, but I still miss the Pig. It's going to be a long year without you, Floyd. 😢

They’re 5-3 and not beating Iowa or OSU. How exactly is 7-5 a collapse? that would be best possible outcome

As an Iowa fan, it is baffling. I am just glad the all-time series is finally tied up. There is just something wrong with how Fickell's teams match up against Iowa. |**Date**|**Location**|**Winner**|**Score**| |:-|:-|:-|:-| |October 31, 2026|Iowa City, IA|Iowa|30–0| |October 11, 2025|Madison, WI|Iowa|37–0| |November 2, 2024|Iowa City, IA|Iowa|42–10| |October 14, 2023|Madison, WI|Iowa|15–6|

Fan mood · last 3 weeks · more negative than 3 in 4 FBS fan bases

Offense: 79th of 138 per play. Defense: 29th.

Offense, per play79thOffense, starting field position39thDefense, per play29thRun defense5thWorstBest
Offense, per play79th of 138Offense, starting field position39th of 138Defense, per play29th of 138Run defense5th of 138WorstBest
Through 8 games. Each tick is an FBS team, adjusted for opponent strength (CFB Zeitgeist model); the dot is Iowa. The other two rows are where Iowa stands furthest from the middle. Early-season numbers move a lot.

4 games left

  1. Sat Nov 7at Northwestern (6-2)FOX39%
  2. Sat Nov 14vs. Purdue (3-5)88%
  3. Sat Nov 21at Illinois (5-3)80%
  4. Fri Nov 27vs. Nebraska (5-3)CBS60%

Percent: Iowa’s chance to win, from the site’s model. Records are through today. Networks as announced; the rest are set closer to kickoff.

How the season got here

Where Iowa stood among 138 FBS programs by stature after each game (1st is the highest; the CFB Zeitgeist ledger).

17th23rd29thPreseason24thNorthern Illinois W 40-0Northern Illinois W 40-0W 40-0Northern Illi…24thIowa State W 16-13Iowa State W 16-13W 16-13Iowa State24thNorthern Iowa W 55-0Northern Iowa W 55-0W 55-0Northern Iowa24thMichigan W 20-19Michigan W 20-19W 20-19Michigan22ndOhio State L 14-31Ohio State L 14-31L 14-31Ohio State22ndWashington W 41-24Washington W 41-24W 41-24Washington22ndMinnesota L 10-13Minnesota L 10-13L 10-13Minnesota22ndWisconsin W 30-0Wisconsin W 30-0W 30-0Wisconsin23rdBye22nd
  1. Oct 26–Nov 1W 30-0 vs. Wisconsin16 headlines · 33rd of 138Column | Kirk Ferentz and Iowa have gained full control of the Hawkeyes' rivalry with Wisconsin The Daily Iowan
  2. Oct 19–25L 10-13 at Minnesota26 headlines · 17th of 138Video: Kirk Ferentz evaluates Iowa football's loss to Minnesota Hawk Central
  3. Oct 12–18No game2 headlines · 74th of 138WATCH: Kirk Ferentz, Jeremy Hecklinski, Kamari Moulton And Others Talk Iowa's 41-24 Win Over Washington 247Sports
  4. Oct 5–11W 41-24 at Washington10 headlines · 38th of 138WATCH: Kirk Ferentz, Jeremy Hecklinski, Kamari Moulton And Others Talk Iowa's 41-24 Win Over Washington 247Sports
  5. Sep 28–Oct 4L 14-31 vs. Ohio State24 headlines · 21st of 138What Iowa head coach Kirk Ferentz said about Ohio State postgame Yahoo Sports
  6. Sep 21–27 · rebuiltW 20-19 at Michigan19 headlines · 22nd of 138Kirk Ferentz to Michigan? Interest was one-sided in 2007, nixed quickly amid wild Wolverines coaching search CBS Sports

Each week as this page showed it at the time. Weeks marked rebuilt came before this page existed: they were built afterward from only what was known by the end of that week.

Watch the biggest plays from Iowa’s games, ranked by how much each moved the chance to win.

Report card

Defense carries it: 89th percentile defense, above the median offense at 56th.

Iowa, every completed season graded against the whole field, then averaged.

Offense

B-
of which —56th
efficiency — 56th percentile success rate, 2004–25
B-57th
Standard-downs success
C+49th
Passing-downs success
B-56th
Trench push (line yards)
B65th
Red-zone scoring rate
B-57th
Power-success (short yardage)
B66th
Ball security (giveaways per game)

Defense

A
of which —89th
89th percentile SP+ defense, 2014–25 (SP+ starts 2014)
D24th
Front-7 havoc
B67th
Secondary havoc
C+49th
Stuff rate (run defense)
B-58th
Takeaways per game

Each season is his team’s percentile among every team with that stat (the share it beat), averaged over his completed seasons here; a mid-season takeover year and the season in progress aren’t graded. Letters: A+ 90th percentile and up, A 80, B+ 70, B 60, B− 50, C+ 45, C 40, C− 30, D 15, F below.