Mark Carney

Head coach · Kent State
2nd season · since 2025

At Kent State8-13since 2025 · 3-6 this seasonHot seatHot25% · 12th of 132 jobsLast gameL 10-31at Sacramento State · Oct 31Nextat Bowling GreenTue Nov 10 · 7 pm ET · ESPNU
This week · as of Wed Nov 4

3-6, on track for 4-8 in the regular season.

Now

Career arc

This week Wed Nov 4

  • Last gameL 10-31 at Sacramento State Fri Oct 30
  • This season3-6
  • Hot seat25% 12th of 132
  • On track for4-8 regular season
  • Nextat Bowling Green Tue Nov 10
  • Stature138th of 138 FBS programs

Win and he’s at 20%. Lose and he’s at 27%.

at Bowling Green, Tue Nov 10, 7 pm ET ESPNU · Bowling Green is 2-7 · Carney vs. Eddie George: 1-0 · Kent State’s chance to win: 32% (the site’s model)

CoolWarmHotBoilingIf Kent State wins: 20%, 21st of 132Now: 25%If Kent State loses: 27%, 11th of 1320%50%+
CoolWarmHotBoiling0%50%+
  • If Kent State wins: 20%, 21st of 132
  • Now: 25%
  • If Kent State loses: 27%, 11th of 132
His chance of being out after the season, now and after Saturday. Each tick is an FBS head coach’s number today; ranks are against today’s field. From the site’s hot-seat model.

Is he getting fired?

25% chance he’s out after the season · 12th of 132 FBS head coaches · Hot

Coolunder 10%Warm10–20%Hot20–35%Boiling35% upNow16% had they won16% had they wonLoss 27%Win 20%32%27%24%23%20%20%23%23%19%25%Pre1L at South CarolinaL2W vs. WoffordW3L at Ohio StateL4W vs. Ball StateW5L vs. OhioL6L at Western MichiganL7L at South FloridaL8W vs. AkronW9L at Sacramento StateL10Chance to win at Bowling Green32%11Chance to win vs. Miami (OH)24%12Chance to win at Eastern Michigan30%Game number. Under each game: the result, or his team’s chance to win it
CoolWarmHotBoilingNow16% had they wonLoss 27%Win 20%32%25%Pre36912Game
Dark line: his number after each game; a small dot just before a game is where it stood at kickoff, after other results moved it. Gray: where it could go, 8 seasons in 10 (darker, the middle half). The hollow dot: had his last game gone the other way. From the site’s hot-seat model.

If he finishes…

Bar: how likely that finish isNumber: his chance of being out

  1. 3-929%
  2. 4-822%
  3. 5-715%
  4. 6-610%
Why his number is where it is

Our hot-seat model, on his record so far, the win chances for every game he has left, and his contract (a bigger buyout, relative to pay, makes a change costlier). Ranked against the 132 FBS head coaches with 3+ games this season.

Now hotter than at this point in 2025.

His hot seat, week by week

The chance he’s out by the end of that season, as it stood after every week of his tenure here, by today’s model.

BoilingHotWarmCool202520262025, week 3 (3 games in): 9%, 42nd-hottest of 118 FBS jobs2025, week 4 (4 games in): 9%, 51st-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 5 (4 games in): 9%, 48th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 6 (5 games in): 8%, 50th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 7 (6 games in): 7%, 52nd-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 8 (7 games in): 8%, 50th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 9 (8 games in): 6%, 54th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 10 (8 games in): 6%, 55th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 11 (9 games in): 6%, 53rd-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 12 (10 games in): 5%, 58th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 13 (11 games in): 5%, 56th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 14 (12 games in): 4%, 53rd-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 15 (12 games in): 4%, 53rd-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 16 (12 games in): 4%, 53rd-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2026, week 3 (3 games in): 23%, 22nd-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2026, week 4 (4 games in): 19.7%, 29th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 5 (5 games in): 20%, 25th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 6 (6 games in): 23%, 19th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 7 (7 games in): 23%, 16th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 8 (8 games in): 19%, 23rd-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 9 (9 games in): 26%, 14th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 10 (9 games in): 25%, 12th-hottest of 132 FBS jobsnowHottest: 2026, week 9▲ 3-6, outscored by 146

Hottest: 2026, week 9 (26%, 14th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs that week). Top factor: ▲ Hotter 3-6, outscored by 146

Earlier seasons price the games left with power ratings rebuilt after those seasons ended.

What drives his number

The biggest factors, each against the typical FBS job today.

  • ▲ Hotter
    3-6, outscored by 146
  • ▲ Hotter
    $434K buyout (imputed from pay) · 1.4× his pay, a multiple among the smallest in FBS — cheap to move on
  • ▲ Hotter
    5-7 over his previous season here

What happened to coaches like him, 2004–2025

A different comparison: past coaches, not today’s, grouped by one fact at a time. Neither line knows the games he has left or his contract, so they can sit above or below his chance.

Were 3-6 after 9 games
19% pushed out over results · of 323 coaches
Were in year 2, after 9 games
5% pushed out over results · of 467 coaches
The outcome
Pushed out over results — a firing, forced resignation, mutual parting or non-renewal, each read case by case. Leaving for a better job, or retiring on his own terms, doesn’t count.
Buyout
$434,272 imputed from total pay — not a reported figure · 1.4× total pay · a small buyout, which raises his chance of being let go · without it: 11%

How good is this number? Checked on every FBS coach from 2010 to 2025, with its percentages calibrated each season on earlier years only: they track what happened — coaches it put near 25% were out about a quarter of the time — and a version pricing the games left with the previous season’s ratings ranked jobs as well as the ranking this page used before. Each week it learns from coaches who were still on the job at that point, so a firing during the season counts. In the Boiling zone it has run a few points high. Every job, and the method.

No headlines named him in the last 7 days

What they are talking about, week and season

Offense: 133rd of 138 per play. Defense: 80th.

Offense, per play133rdOffense, points per trip inside the 40138thDefense, per play80thDefense, points allowed per trip inside the 40131stWorstBest
Offense, per play133rd of 138Offense, points per trip inside the 40138th of 138Defense, per play80th of 138Defense, points allowed per trip inside the 40131st of 138WorstBest
Through 9 games. Each tick is an FBS team, adjusted for opponent strength (CFB Zeitgeist model); the dot is Kent State. The other two rows are where Kent State stands furthest from the middle. Early-season numbers move a lot.

3 games left

  1. Tue Nov 10at Bowling Green (2-7)ESPNU32%
  2. Tue Nov 17vs. Miami (OH) (5-4)24%
  3. Tue Nov 24at Eastern Michigan (4-5)30%

Percent: Kent State’s chance to win, from the site’s model. Records are through today. Networks as announced; the rest are set closer to kickoff.

How the season got here

Where Kent State stood among 138 FBS programs by stature after each game (1st is the highest; the CFB Zeitgeist ledger).

132nd135th138thPreseason138thSouth Carolina L 0-57South Carolina L 0-57L 0-57South Carolina138thWofford W 36-15Wofford W 36-15W 36-15Wofford138thOhio State L 3-59Ohio State L 3-59L 3-59Ohio State138thBall State W 26-13Ball State W 26-13W 26-13Ball State137thOhio L 10-13Ohio L 10-13L 10-13Ohio137thWestern Michigan L 7-38Western Michigan L 7-38L 7-38Western Michi…137thSouth Florida L 2-29South Florida L 2-29L 2-29South Florida137thAkron W 35-20Akron W 35-20W 35-20Akron137thSacramento State L 10-31Sacramento State L 10-31L 10-31Sacramento St…138thBye138th
  1. Oct 26–Nov 1L 10-31 at Sacramento State0 headlines
  2. Oct 19–25W 35-20 vs. Akron1 headline · 81st of 138Kent State coach Mark Carney on taking lead vs. Akron late in 3Q. Video Yahoo Sports
  3. Oct 12–18L 2-29 at South Florida1 headline · 82nd of 138
  4. Oct 5–11L 7-38 at Western Michigan0 headlines
  5. Sep 28–Oct 4L 10-13 vs. Ohio1 headline · 82nd of 138Kent State football coach Mark Carney comments after loss to Ohio Yahoo Sports
  6. Sep 21–27 · rebuiltW 26-13 vs. Ball State0 headlines

Each week as this page showed it at the time. Weeks marked rebuilt came before this page existed: they were built afterward from only what was known by the end of that week.

Watch the biggest plays from Kent State’s games, ranked by how much each moved the chance to win.