Mark Helfrich

Head coach, Oregon, 2013 to 2016

College career37-16

Titles1conference

Program liftNo. 655tied · of 1,290 tenures since 1937

Now

Career arc

Bowls and playoffs: 2-2 · won 0 of 1 national title game

2013Alamo BowlW 30-7

2014 semiRose BowlW 59-20

2014CFP title gameL 20-42

2015Alamo BowlL 41-47

Report card

Offense carries it: 88th percentile offense, below the median defense at 40th.

Oregon, every completed season graded against the whole field, then averaged.

Offense

of which —88th

efficiency — 88th percentile success rate, 2013–16

A89th

Standard-downs success

B+79th

Passing-downs success

A+92nd

Trench push (line yards)

C+48th

Red-zone scoring rate

B62nd

Power-success (short yardage)

B+78th

Ball security (giveaways per game)

Defense

of which —40th

40th percentile SP+ defense, 2014–16 (SP+ starts 2014)

F6th

Front-7 havoc

C-30th

Secondary havoc

C-35th

Stuff rate (run defense)

B-59th

Takeaways per game

Each season is his team’s percentile among every team with that stat (the share it beat), averaged over his completed seasons here; a mid-season takeover year and the season in progress aren’t graded. Letters: A+ 90th percentile and up, A 80, B+ 70, B 60, B− 50, C+ 45, C 40, C− 30, D 15, F below.

Stats

Big games

The big-game ledger

How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.

6-2 against his rivals. Just 1-2 against Rich Rodriguez.

Rivalry record

6-2

75.0% · 2 rivals

ATS 4-4 · all 8 had a line

One-score games

6-8

42.9% · margin ≤8

Against Blue Bloods or better

3-1

75.0%

Against the spread

26-25-2

−3.2 pts a game vs. the line

all 53 had a line

Rivalry ledger

Washington3-175%ATS —

Oregon State3-175%ATS —

The toughest matchup

vs. Rich Rodriguez1-2

3 meetings, 2013–2014

’13 L’14 L · blew a 4-pt lead’14 W · wire to wire

covered the spread

33% win rate across a real, 3-meeting series — short of the bar this site uses before badging a series “Nemesis.” Shown here as the toughest matchup on record, not an algorithmic crown.

Performance by opponent class

Blue Blood

3-1 75.0%ATS —

Power Program

9-8 52.9%ATS 9-7-1 17 of 17

National Program

13-4 76.5%ATS 10-7 17 of 17

Regional Program

8-3 72.7%ATS 3-7-1 11 of 11

ATS is his record against the spread: did his team beat the closing betting line, winning by more than it or losing by less? Lines start in 2013; a dash means fewer than 6 of those games had one. One-score games carry no spread record: a big favorite that wins a close game has almost always failed to cover, so that number would say nothing about the coach.

Signature games

9-4 vs. AP top 25 · 3-3 vs. the top 10

Every AP-ranked regular-season opponent, by rank (#1 at top) and year

win loss · higher = higher-ranked opponent · dashed line = top 10

Signature wins

Florida State · 2014

59-20

Quality opponentBowl/CFP stakes

Texas · 2013

30-7

Quality opponentBowl/CFP stakes

Oregon State · 2014

47-19

RivalQuality opponent

Signature losses

Washington · 2016

21-70

Rival

Arizona · 2013

16-42

Upset

Ohio State · 2014

20-42

UpsetNational title game

Tags describe each game; they aren’t scores. The weighting that picks these games is still being tested.

Defining games during this era

From our list of the 50 most defining games of the Playoff era, ranked by how much each game mattered, not by date.

#2of 50L2014 NCG · Ohio State 42, Oregon 20January 12, 2015 · AT&T Stadium · ArlingtonThe first College Football Playoff title — and the night the four-team format proved it was not going to be replaced any time soon.Cardale Jones · Elliott 246 rush yds · inaugural-Playoff title #38of 50W2014 Pac-12 Championship · Oregon 51, Arizona 13December 5, 2014The Pac-12 Championship that put Mariota's Oregon in the inaugural Playoff — the spread offense's first championship-game appearance of the era.Mariota 313 pass · Oregon to inaugural CFP

How he plays

more run-heavy than 59% of FBS coaches →

Run/pass mix, by field position

Called about what the situation called for under every play-caller.

3,608 run and pass snaps at Oregon, 2013–2016, his own games, one row per offensive coordinator. Each cell is how much more often he passed than the rest of FBS did in the same situation (field zone, down, distance, score, quarter, same season), in percentage points.

backed upown territorymidfieldopp. territoryred zoneOC unrecorded2013+6−2−1−6+5Frost2014–15−5−30+4+2Lubick2016−50−4−7+8All years2013–16−3−2−10+4

passed moreran morewithin noise (95% range includes 0)

Pass rate, stint by stint

Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next, against the FBS-wide average of 41% pass. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.

Pass rate — share of offensive plays that were pass attemptsfirst covered seasonmost recent covered seasonfull season-to-season range (3+ covered seasons)

How much that is, against every other stint

Season-to-season pass-rate range for all 449 FBS coaching stints with at least three covered seasons, 2004–2025.

Typical stint7.010.3 median14.8middle half of all stints

Oregon7.0pt#340 of 449 · less than most

Building the roster

Four numbers on how he actually stocks a roster, from signing day to draft day.

1Roster ownership
2Size up front
3Where he recruits
4The NFL pipeline

Roster ownership

96%His own players

of his 2016 roster arrived on his watch — 121 of 126 players. The other 5 are holdovers from before he was hired.

Arrived under him 121Inherited 5

This coach's entire tenure (2013-2016) predates 2021, when transfer-portal tracking begins in this database. Portal usage cannot be measured for this tenure at all -- this is not the same as '0% portal'.

“His own” means the player arrived while he was head coach; “inherited” means a predecessor brought him in.

Size up front

−1 lbAgainst the FBS average

Offensive linemen on his Oregon rosters have averaged within a few pounds of the FBS average (2013–2016). In the three seasons before he arrived, Oregon’s line averaged 5 lb lighter than the FBS average.

Oregon2013–2016−1 lb

His seasonsSame program, the seasons before he arrivedMiddle half of FBS coaching runs since 2010

Average listed weight of every offensive lineman on each season’s roster, holdovers included, against every FBS roster that season (2010 on; a program needs 3+ seasons under him to appear). Weights are the ones programs publish, and programs list differently. This describes size only — not scheme, and not quality.

Where he recruits

CATop state

is his biggest recruiting state: 28 of 68 signees (41%) across his 2013–2016 tenure, drawn from 17 states in all. Next: OR (10).

Where his signees came from, 2013–2016 (68 high-school, JUCO and prep signees)

63% of his signees come from CA and its 3 border states (OR 10, NV 3, AZ 2).

Off this map: 2 signees to the east (MD, NJ).

By region

West

South

Midwest

Northeast

Roster distance from campus (Autzen Stadium, OR)

median hometown distance: 763 mi
within 100 mi: 14%
within 500 mi: 33%
beyond 1,000 mi: 38%

126 of 126 roster players with a known hometown (100% coverage)

The map counts signed recruits across his tenure; the distance figures cover his current roster, transfers and walk-ons included. Two different groups, kept separate on purpose.

The NFL pipeline

11Drafted

players drafted into the NFL off his teams here. Most were someone else’s recruits: 9 arrived under Chip Kelly; 1 he brought in himself. 1 more can’t be traced to who brought them in (no roster record). 3 went in the first round.

His recruits 1Inherited 9Can’t verify 110 roster-verified · 1 estimated

Most recent picks first

Year	Pick	Player	Pos	NFL team	Note
2016	R1.07	DeForest Buckner	Defensive End	San Francisco 49ers	recruited under Chip Kelly
2016	R7.30	Joe Walker	Inside Linebacker	Philadelphia Eagles
2015	R1.02	Marcus Mariota	Quarterback	Tennessee Titans	recruited under Chip Kelly
2015	R1.17	Arik Armstead	Defensive End	San Francisco 49ers	recruited under Chip Kelly
2015	R2.21	Jake Fisher	Offensive Tackle	Cincinnati Bengals	recruited under Chip Kelly
2015	R3.07	Hroniss Grasu	Center	Chicago Bears	recruited under Chip Kelly
2015	R7.24	Ifo Ekpre-Olomu	Cornerback	Cleveland Browns	recruited under Chip Kelly
2014	R3.22	Josh Huff	Wide Receiver	Philadelphia Eagles	recruited under Chip Kelly

Year	Pick	Player	Pos	NFL team	Note
2014	R4.24	De'Anthony Thomas	Running Back	Kansas City Chiefs	recruited under Chip Kelly
2014	R5.01	Taylor Hart	Defensive End	Philadelphia Eagles	Estimated
2014	R7.39	Terrance Mitchell	Cornerback	Dallas Cowboys	recruited under Chip Kelly

A pick counts toward his tenure when the player’s final college season was one he coached, a checkable rule rather than a claim about who developed the player. A blank note means the player is on a verified roster and arrived on his watch. “Estimated” means no roster record, so the final season is assumed to be the year before the draft.

Career

Coaching career

1 conference title

See Oregon’s full coaching history →

The arc of his career is on Now.

Inheritor inherited a power and neither built it higher nor let it collapse

2013–2016

Oregon Inheritor

Power Program I → Power Program I

Closest comparable run: Paul Chryst’s Pittsburgh run (2012–2014)

Mark Helfrich inherited Oregon at Power Program I and won with it.

−3.0 pts over 4 seasons · bottom 49% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)

1st-best Oregon tenure of 16 by the numbers.

Followed Chip Kelly (2009–2012) · succeeded by Willie Taggart (2017).

System Shift, on departure

System Shift, on arrival

Season	2013	2014	2015	2016
Record & result
Record	11-2	13-2	9-4	4-8
Postseason	W bowl	Title game L	L bowl	—
Coordinators
OC	—	Scott Frost	Scott Frost	Matt Lubick
DC	—	Don Pellum	Don Pellum	Brady Hoke
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	98	100	90	75
Defense	85	70	20	2
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%	44.4	44.2	37.6	33.9
Red-zone pass%	43.3	39.9	35.8	45.4
4th-down go%opp. territory	62.2	48.9	45.1	47.5

Recruiter or developer?

Outperforms his recruiting talent on offense and underperforms his recruiting talent on defense.

Offense vs. talent

+21.6 pts

#36 of 208 · top quarter

Defense vs. talent

-49.2 pts

#209 of 208 · bottom quarter

Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Does the system survive a coordinator change?

OC: Scott Frost → Matt Lubick · 2016

1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.

1st-down pass rate: 37.6% → 33.9% (-3.7 pts)

Confound, shown not hidden: only 61% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.

DC: Don Pellum → Brady Hoke · 2016

1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.

Where the roster comes from, by position

Grows Tight end from high school

100%

#164 of 188 stints

Grows Edge from high school

100%

#191 of 208 stints

Postseason detail2013: Beat Texas 30-7 Valero Alamo Bowl2014: Beat Florida State 59-20 Rose Bowl Game Pres. By Northwestern Mutual - Semifinal2014: Lost to Ohio State 20-42 Cfp National Championship Game Pres. By At&T2015: Lost to TCU 41-47 Valero Alamo Bowl

1 player-season honored (All-America / national award): Marcus Mariota (2014)

37-16

Was he good?

A mixed record — ahead of expectations by some measures here, behind by others. The honest read is that it depends which lens you use.

Raised the program

+0.5 pts at Oregon · #655 of 1290 · middle half

Beat his talent