This week · as of Wed Nov 4

3-5, on track for 3-9 in the regular season.

Now

Career arc

Stature score reached, by season of his head-coaching careerMemphisArkansasOle MissOle MissPower Programperennial contenderNational Programrespectable, streakyMemphis when he took over: 33.5 (National Program II), its final 2019 readingtook overMemphis, 2020: 8-3, National Program IIMemphis, 2020: 8-3, National Program II20208-3Memphis, 2021: 6-6, National Program II20216-6Memphis, 2022: 7-6, National Program II20227-6Memphis, 2023: 10-3, National Program II202310-3Memphis, 2024: 11-2, National Program II202411-2Memphis, 2025: 8-4, National Program IIMemphis, 2025: 8-4, National Program II20258-4+0.9Arkansas when he took over: 33.0 (National Program II), its final 2025 readingtook overArkansas, 2026: 3-5, National Program IIArkansas, 2026: 3-5, National Program II20263-5+0.1best: 2024gray dashed: rival programs · ○ the program when he took over · Dashed segments are program changes — spacing is not proportional to calendar time

Bowls and playoffs: 4-1

Memphis2019Cotton Bowl ClassicL 39-532020Montgomery BowlW 25-102022First Responder BowlW 38-102023Liberty BowlW 36-262024Frisco BowlW 42-37

This week Wed Nov 4

  • Last gameL 10-34 vs. Missouri Sat Oct 31
  • This season3-5
  • On track for3-9 regular season
  • Nextat Auburn Sat Nov 7
  • Stature61st of 138 FBS programs

Saturday: at Auburn

Sat Nov 7, 12:45 pm ET SEC Network · Auburn is 4-4 · Silverfield vs. Alex Golesh: 2-0 (not counting 1 game in seasons either team changed coaches) · Arkansas’s chance to win: 21% (the site’s model)

His week

Many stories this week →

The headlines, Nov 1–4 from several outlets

On the podcasts

Fans are frustrated with Arkansas

Being worse than Arkansas on offense is an achievment

After last week I thought Arkansas was improving. I was wrong.

Arkansas never had a chance, even when they did have a chance the refs ruined it with made up flags. Ik Arkansas sucks but I'm tired of seeing us suck on top of the refs sucking and ruining any tiny momentum we ever have.

Fan mood · last 3 weeks · more negative than 3 in 4 FBS fan bases

Offense: 101st of 138 per play. Defense: 94th.

Offense, per play101stOffense, big plays135thDefense, per play94thDefense, big plays allowed16thWorstBest
Offense, per play101st of 138Offense, big plays135th of 138Defense, per play94th of 138Defense, big plays allowed16th of 138WorstBest
Through 8 games. Each tick is an FBS team, adjusted for opponent strength (CFB Zeitgeist model); the dot is Arkansas. The other two rows are where Arkansas stands furthest from the middle. Early-season numbers move a lot.

4 games left

  1. Sat Nov 7at Auburn (4-4)SEC Network21%
  2. Sat Nov 14vs. South Carolina (5-3)SEC Network12%
  3. Sat Nov 21at Texas (6-2)5%
  4. Sat Nov 28vs. LSU (6-2)3%

Percent: Arkansas’s chance to win, from the site’s model. Records are through today. Networks as announced; the rest are set closer to kickoff.

How the season got here

Where Arkansas stood among 138 FBS programs by stature after each game (1st is the highest; the CFB Zeitgeist ledger).

49th56th62ndPreseason52ndNorth Alabama W 31-14North Alabama W 31-14W 31-14North Alabama54thUtah L 10-43Utah L 10-43L 10-43Utah55thGeorgia L 17-45Georgia L 17-45L 17-45Georgia56thTulsa W 34-6Tulsa W 34-6W 34-6Tulsa57thTexas A&M L 7-34Texas A&M L 7-34L 7-34Texas A&M58thTennessee L 17-24Tennessee L 17-24L 17-24Tennessee59thVanderbilt W 31-21Vanderbilt W 31-21W 31-21Vanderbilt58thMissouri L 10-34Missouri L 10-34L 10-34Missouri57th
  1. Oct 26–Nov 1L 10-34 vs. Missouri13 headlines · 39th of 138Ryan Silverfield press conference: Arkansas football coach, players recap loss to Missouri Whole Hog Sports
  2. Oct 19–25No game17 headlines · 26th of 138Arkansas versus the SEC: Ryan Silverfield Yahoo Sports“Tough times don't last, tough people do”Arkansas football coach Ryan Silverfield on Vanderbilt win, Oct 19
  3. Oct 12–18W 31-21 at Vanderbilt11 headlines · 32nd of 138I’ve Seen Every Ryan Silverfield Coached Game, Memphis Never Tested Him Like This. Sports Illustrated
  4. Oct 5–11L 17-24 vs. Tennessee18 headlines · 25th of 138Ryan Silverfield Explains Decision To Punt On Arkansas' Final Drive In Loss To Vols Sports Illustrated
  5. Sep 28–Oct 4L 7-34 at Texas A&M7 headlines · 53rd of 138Ryan Silverfield's First Shot At A Signature SEC Win Comes Against Arkansas' Achilles' Heel Sports Illustrated
  6. Sep 21–27 · rebuiltW 34-6 vs. Tulsa14 headlines · 28th of 138Welcome To The Biggest Game Of Your Head Coaching Career, Ryan Silverfield Sports Illustrated

Each week as this page showed it at the time. Weeks marked rebuilt came before this page existed: they were built afterward from only what was known by the end of that week.

Watch the biggest plays from Arkansas’s games, ranked by how much each moved the chance to win.

This season

3%chance he’s out by the end of this seasonCool70th-hottest of 132 FBS jobs
0%50%+

Our hot-seat model, on his record so far, the win chances for every game he has left, and his contract (a bigger buyout, relative to pay, makes a change costlier). Ranked against the 132 FBS head coaches with 3+ games this season.

His first rated season here.

His hot seat, week by week

The chance he’s out by the end of that season, as it stood after every week of his tenure here, by today’s model.

BoilingHotWarmCool20262026, week 3 (3 games in): 5%, 58th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2026, week 4 (4 games in): 3%, 72nd-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 5 (5 games in): 4%, 71st-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 6 (6 games in): 4%, 75th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 7 (7 games in): 2%, 82nd-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 8 (7 games in): 2%, 78th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 9 (8 games in): 3%, 76th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 10 (8 games in): 3%, 70th-hottest of 132 FBS jobsnow

What drives his number

The biggest factors, each against the typical FBS job today.

  • ▼ Cooler
    Year 1 · tenure, which this model overrates
    (why?)

    Tenure is one of this model’s strongest inputs, but its weight was set when retirements like Nick Saban’s and Bob Stoops’ still counted as being pushed out, so it overstates how much tenure matters.

  • ▲ Hotter
    3-5, outscored by 64
  • ▼ Cooler
    No previous seasons here to judge him on

What happened to coaches like him, 2004–2025

A different comparison: past coaches, not today’s, grouped by one fact at a time. Neither line knows the games he has left or his contract, so they can sit above or below his chance.

Were 3-5 after 8 games
18% pushed out over results · of 379 coaches
Were in year 1, after 8 games
1% pushed out over results · of 521 coaches
The outcome
Pushed out over results — a firing, forced resignation, mutual parting or non-renewal, each read case by case. Leaving for a better job, or retiring on his own terms, doesn’t count.
Buyout
No figure on file for this coach. The salary database predates the last coaching carousel; a name mismatch is suppressed rather than misattributed.

How good is this number? Checked on every FBS coach from 2010 to 2025, with its percentages calibrated each season on earlier years only: they track what happened — coaches it put near 25% were out about a quarter of the time — and a version pricing the games left with the previous season’s ratings ranked jobs as well as the ranking this page used before. Each week it learns from coaches who were still on the job at that point, so a firing during the season counts. In the Boiling zone it has run a few points high. Every job, and the method.