Scott Abell

Head coach · Rice
2nd season · since 2025

At Rice6-15since 2025 · 1-7 this seasonHot seatHot22% · 18th of 132 jobsLast gameL 49-51at Florida Atlantic · Oct 24Nextat North TexasSat Nov 7 · 4 pm ET · ESPNU
This week · as of Wed Nov 4

1-7, lost 7 straight, on track for 2-10 in the regular season.

Now

Career arc

Bowls and playoffs: 0-1

2025Armed Forces BowlL 10-41

This week Wed Nov 4

  • Last gameL 49-51 at Florida Atlantic Sat Oct 24
  • This season1-7 lost 7 straight
  • Hot seat22% 18th of 132
  • On track for2-10 regular season
  • Nextat North Texas Sat Nov 7
  • Stature129th of 138 FBS programs

Win and he’s at 15%. Lose and he’s at 22%.

at North Texas, Sat Nov 7, 4 pm ET ESPNU · North Texas is 6-2 · First meeting between Abell and Neal Brown as head coaches · Rice’s chance to win: 10% (the site’s model)

CoolWarmHotBoilingIf Rice wins: 15%, 26th of 132Now: 22%If Rice loses: 22%, 18th of 1320%50%+
CoolWarmHotBoiling0%50%+
  • If Rice wins: 15%, 26th of 132
  • Now: 22%
  • If Rice loses: 22%, 18th of 132
His chance of being out after the season, now and after Saturday. Each tick is an FBS head coach’s number today; ranks are against today’s field. From the site’s hot-seat model.

Is he getting fired?

22% chance he’s out after the season · 18th of 132 FBS head coaches · Hot

Coolunder 10%Warm10–20%Hot20–35%Boiling35% upNow16% had they won16% had they wonLoss 22%Win 15%20%13%13%15%16%15%17%22%22%Pre1W vs. Houston ChristianW2L at Notre DameL3L vs. Western MichiganL4L at Fresno StateL5L vs. UTSAL6L at East CarolinaL7L vs. TulsaL8L at Florida AtlanticL9Chance to win at North Texas10%10Chance to win vs. Tulane30%11Chance to win at Temple33%12Chance to win vs. Army18%Game number. Under each game: the result, or his team’s chance to win it
CoolWarmHotBoilingNow16% had they wonLoss 22%Win 15%20%22%Pre368912Game
Dark line: his number after each game; a small dot just before a game is where it stood at kickoff, after other results moved it. Gray: where it could go, 8 seasons in 10 (darker, the middle half). The hollow dot: had his last game gone the other way. From the site’s hot-seat model.

If he finishes…

Bar: how likely that finish isNumber: his chance of being out

  1. 1-1126%
  2. 2-1017%
  3. 3-912%
  4. 4-88%
Why his number is where it is

Our hot-seat model, on his record so far, the win chances for every game he has left, and his contract (a bigger buyout, relative to pay, makes a change costlier). Ranked against the 132 FBS head coaches with 3+ games this season.

Now hotter than at this point in 2025.

His hot seat, week by week

The chance he’s out by the end of that season, as it stood after every week of his tenure here, by today’s model.

BoilingHotWarmCool202520262025, week 3 (3 games in): 1%, 99th-hottest of 118 FBS jobs2025, week 4 (4 games in): 1%, 115th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 5 (5 games in): 1%, 111th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 6 (6 games in): 1%, 97th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 7 (7 games in): 1%, 91st-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 8 (7 games in): 1%, 91st-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 9 (8 games in): 1%, 98th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 10 (9 games in): 1%, 98th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 11 (10 games in): 1%, 104th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 12 (10 games in): 1%, 100th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 13 (11 games in): 1%, 98th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 14 (12 games in): 1%, 82nd-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 15 (12 games in): 1%, 82nd-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 16 (12 games in): 1%, 82nd-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2026, week 3 (3 games in): 15%, 34th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2026, week 4 (4 games in): 16%, 32nd-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 5 (5 games in): 15%, 32nd-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 6 (6 games in): 17%, 26th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 7 (7 games in): 22%, 18th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 8 (8 games in): 22%, 17th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 9 (8 games in): 22%, 20th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 10 (8 games in): 22%, 18th-hottest of 132 FBS jobsnowHottest: 2026, week 8▲ 1-7, outscored by 86

Hottest: 2026, week 8 (22%, 17th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs that week). Top factor: ▲ Hotter 1-7, outscored by 86

Earlier seasons price the games left with power ratings rebuilt after those seasons ended.

What drives his number

The biggest factors, each against the typical FBS job today.

  • ▲ Hotter
    1-7, outscored by 86
  • ▲ Hotter
    5-8 over his previous season here
  • ▼ Cooler
    Regional Program program · the bar going in

What happened to coaches like him, 2004–2025

A different comparison: past coaches, not today’s, grouped by one fact at a time. Neither line knows the games he has left or his contract, so they can sit above or below his chance.

Were 1-7 after 8 games
21% pushed out over results · of 159 coaches
Were in year 2, after 8 games
5% pushed out over results · of 469 coaches
The outcome
Pushed out over results — a firing, forced resignation, mutual parting or non-renewal, each read case by case. Leaving for a better job, or retiring on his own terms, doesn’t count.
Buyout
No figure on file for this coach. The salary database predates the last coaching carousel; a name mismatch is suppressed rather than misattributed.

How good is this number? Checked on every FBS coach from 2010 to 2025, with its percentages calibrated each season on earlier years only: they track what happened — coaches it put near 25% were out about a quarter of the time — and a version pricing the games left with the previous season’s ratings ranked jobs as well as the ranking this page used before. Each week it learns from coaches who were still on the job at that point, so a firing during the season counts. In the Boiling zone it has run a few points high. Every job, and the method.

No headlines named him in the last 7 days

What they are talking about, week and season

Offense: 127th of 138 per play. Defense: 101st.

Offense, per play127thPassing offense137thDefense, per play101stDefense, opponents' starting field position138thWorstBest
Offense, per play127th of 138Passing offense137th of 138Defense, per play101st of 138Defense, opponents' starting field position138th of 138WorstBest
Through 8 games. Each tick is an FBS team, adjusted for opponent strength (CFB Zeitgeist model); the dot is Rice. The other two rows are where Rice stands furthest from the middle. Early-season numbers move a lot.

4 games left

  1. Sat Nov 7at North Texas (6-2)ESPNU10%
  2. Sat Nov 14vs. Tulane (4-4)ESPN+30%
  3. Thu Nov 19at Temple (2-6)ESPN33%
  4. Sat Nov 28vs. Army (5-3)18%

Percent: Rice’s chance to win, from the site’s model. Records are through today. Networks as announced; the rest are set closer to kickoff.

How the season got here

Where Rice stood among 138 FBS programs by stature after each game (1st is the highest; the CFB Zeitgeist ledger).

124th130th136thPreseason131stHouston Christian W 31-3Houston Christian W 31-3W 31-3Houston Chris…131stNotre Dame L 0-52Notre Dame L 0-52L 0-52Notre Dame131stWestern Michigan L 21-28Western Michigan L 21-28L 21-28Western Michi…131stFresno State L 24-38Fresno State L 24-38L 24-38Fresno State131stUTSA L 14-16UTSA L 14-16L 14-16UTSA130thEast Carolina L 12-28East Carolina L 12-28L 12-28East Carolina130thTulsa L 17-38Tulsa L 17-38L 17-38Tulsa130thFlorida Atlantic L 49-51Florida Atlantic L 49-51L 49-51Florida Atlan…129th
  1. Oct 26–Nov 1No game0 headlines
  2. Oct 19–25L 49-51 at Florida Atlantic0 headlines
  3. Oct 12–18L 17-38 vs. Tulsa0 headlines
  4. Oct 5–11L 12-28 at East Carolina1 headline · 83rd of 138
  5. Sep 28–Oct 4L 14-16 vs. UTSA0 headlines
  6. Sep 21–27 · rebuiltL 24-38 at Fresno State0 headlines

Each week as this page showed it at the time. Weeks marked rebuilt came before this page existed: they were built afterward from only what was known by the end of that week.