Spencer Danielson

Head coach · Boise State
4th season · since 2023

At Boise State31-9since 2023 · 7-1 this seasonHot seatCool0% · 119th of 132 jobsLast gameW 46-45vs Texas State · Nov 1Nextat Colorado StateSat Nov 7 · 6 pm ET · USA Network
This week · as of Wed Nov 4

7-1, won 7 straight, on track for 10-1 in the regular season.

Now

Career arc

Stature score reached, by season of his head-coaching careerFBS medianBoise StateFresno StateFresno StatePower Programperennial contenderNational Programrespectable, streakyRegional Programthe building-block levelBoise State when he took over: 46.7 (Power Program III), its final 2022 readingtook overBoise State, 2023: 3-1, Power Program IIIBoise State, 2023: 3-1, Power Program III20233-1Boise State, 2024: 12-2, Power Program III202412-2Boise State, 2025: 9-5, Power Program III20259-5Boise State, 2026: 7-1, Power Program IIIBoise State, 2026: 7-1, Power Program III20267-1+1.1best: 2024gray dashed: rival programs · ○ the program when he took over · Dashed segments are program changes — spacing is not proportional to calendar time

Bowls and playoffs: 0-3

2023LA BowlL 22-352024 QFFiesta BowlL 14-312025LA BowlL 10-38

This week Wed Nov 4

  • Last gameW 46-45 vs. Texas State Sat Oct 31
  • This season7-1 won 7 straight
  • On track for10-1 regular season
  • Nextat Colorado State Sat Nov 7
  • Stature23rd of 138 FBS programs

What the result changed

  • Playoff odds 42% → 53% CFB Zeitgeist forecast, before and after

Saturday: at Colorado State

Sat Nov 7, 6 pm ET USA Network · Colorado State is 3-5 · First meeting between Danielson and Jim Mora as head coaches · Boise State’s chance to win: 92% (the site’s model)

His week

Boise State Broncos · 895 views by Wednesday

More of him this week

Press conference, Colorado State weekMon Nov 2 · Boise State Broncos · 843 views by Wednesday

Several stories this week →

The headlines, Nov 1–4 from a few outlets

Offense: 3rd of 138 per play. Defense: 35th.

Offense, per play3rdOffense, starting field position137thDefense, per play35thDefense, big plays allowed137thWorstBest
Offense, per play3rd of 138Offense, starting field position137th of 138Defense, per play35th of 138Defense, big plays allowed137th of 138WorstBest
Through 8 games. Each tick is an FBS team, adjusted for opponent strength (CFB Zeitgeist model); the dot is Boise State. The other two rows are where Boise State stands furthest from the middle. Early-season numbers move a lot.

3 games left

  1. Sat Nov 7at Colorado State (3-5)USA Network92%
  2. Sat Nov 14vs. Oregon State (5-3)USA Network74%
  3. Sat Nov 21vs. San Diego State (4-5)USA Network93%

Percent: Boise State’s chance to win, from the site’s model. Records are through today. Networks as announced; the rest are set closer to kickoff.

How the season got here

Where Boise State stood among 138 FBS programs by stature after each game (1st is the highest; the CFB Zeitgeist ledger).

18th24th30thPreseason25thOregon L 27-34Oregon L 27-34L 27-34Oregon25thMemphis W 38-20Memphis W 38-20W 38-20Memphis25thSouth Dakota W 38-24South Dakota W 38-24W 38-24South Dakota26thWestern Michigan W 32-7Western Michigan W 32-7W 32-7Western Michi…25thUtah State W 37-18Utah State W 37-18W 37-18Utah State25thFresno State W 38-31Fresno State W 38-31W 38-31Fresno State24thWashington State W 31-10Washington State W 31-10W 31-10Washington St…25thTexas State W 46-45Texas State W 46-45W 46-45Texas State24thBye23rd
  1. Oct 26–Nov 1W 46-45 vs. Texas State9 headlines · 45th of 138Boise State’s Spencer Danielson against G6 playoff, supports 24-team CFP Idaho Statesman
  2. Oct 19–25W 31-10 at Washington State8 headlines · 47th of 138Spencer Danielson explains how Boise State avoided upset against Washington State Sports Illustrated
  3. Oct 12–18No game0 headlinesHead coach Spencer Danielson praises Boise State for securing hard-fought road win over rival Fresno State Sports Illustrated
  4. Oct 5–11W 38-31 at Fresno State2 headlines · 70th of 138
  5. Sep 28–Oct 4W 37-18 vs. Utah State9 headlines · 48th of 138Spencer Danielson reacts to Boise State’s first Pac-12 win: ‘It’s huge’ Sports Illustrated
  6. Sep 21–27 · rebuiltW 32-7 at Western Michigan12 headlines · 33rd of 138Spencer Danielson after Boise State rout: 'Most complete game we've played' Sports Illustrated“Most complete game we've played”Spencer Danielson after Boise State rout, Sep 26

Each week as this page showed it at the time. Weeks marked rebuilt came before this page existed: they were built afterward from only what was known by the end of that week.

Watch the biggest plays from Boise State’s games, ranked by how much each moved the chance to win.

Poach watch

This winter

44%chance he leaves this winter for a head-coaching job elsewhere, or an NFL coordinator jobCoveted2nd-highest of 132 FBS head coaches
0%50%+

Our poach model, on his record so far, the win chances for every game he has left, his program, his pay and his background. Ranked against the 132 FBS head coaches this season. The zone words describe the market’s interest; none of them says he is leaving.

What drives his number

The biggest factors in his profile, each against the typical FBS head coach today. The games he has left are priced into the number, not listed here.

  • ▲ Higher
    His team is 7-1, outscoring opponents by 12.2 points a game · AP-ranked
  • ▲ Higher
    His 3rd season at Boise State
  • ▲ Higher
    Age 37 · neither at his alma mater nor in the state he was born in
How good is this number? It ranks a head coach who leaves for another head-coaching job ahead of one who stays 78 to 82% of the time, and its average came within a point of the share who actually left. What it can’t do

Tested on every FBS head coach from 2012 through 2025, each season scored by a model fit only on the seasons before it. From three games on, given one coach who left for a head-coaching job elsewhere or an NFL coordinator job and one who stayed, it ranked the one who left ahead 79 to 82% of the time; in a season’s first two games, 78%. Its average chance came within a point of the share who actually left. It counts a move a coach makes while he still holds the job; when his school ends it, that doesn’t count, even if another school then hires him.

  • The live number prices the games he has left with the power model’s ratings from this season. The test priced them with each team’s rating from the season before, because ratings made during past seasons were not kept, so this live version could not be replayed.
  • Programs new to FBS have no FBS record before this season in the data it reads, so their coaches are scored without one.
  • It is frozen: it learns nothing from 2026 until a deliberate refit.
  • A coach hired in December needs his background (age, alma mater, the state he was born in) added before his first game, or he shows as not rated.