7-1, won 7 straight, on track for 10-1 in the regular season.
Now
Career arc
Bowls and playoffs: 0-3
2023LA BowlL 22-35
2024 QFFiesta BowlL 14-31
2025LA BowlL 10-38
This week Wed Nov 4
- Last gameW 46-45 vs. Texas State Sat Oct 31
- This season7-1 won 7 straight
- On track for10-1 regular season
- Nextat Colorado State Sat Nov 7
- Stature23rd of 138 FBS programs
What the result changed
- Playoff odds 42% → 53% CFB Zeitgeist forecast, before and after
Saturday: at Colorado State
Sat Nov 7, 6 pm ET 
· Colorado State is 3-5 · First meeting between Danielson and Jim Mora as head coaches · Boise State’s chance to win: 92% (the site’s model)
His week
Several stories this week →
The headlines, Nov 1–4 from a few outlets
Sports IllustratedSpencer Danielson commends Boise State for recovering from ‘absolutely terrible’ third quarter against Texas StateSun Nov 1
247SportsVideo: Boise State coach Spencer Danielson talks after an epic 46-45 win over Texas StateSun Nov 1- KTVBBoise State football: Spencer Danielson press conference | Colorado State weekMon Nov 2
- KTVBBoise State vs Texas State: Spencer Danielson post-game press conferenceSun Nov 1
Offense: 3rd of 138 per play. Defense: 35th.
3 games left
- Sat Nov 7at Colorado State (3-5)92%
- Sat Nov 14vs. Oregon State (5-3)74%
- Sat Nov 21vs. San Diego State (4-5)93%
Percent: Boise State’s chance to win, from the site’s model. Records are through today. Networks as announced; the rest are set closer to kickoff.
How the season got here
Where Boise State stood among 138 FBS programs by stature after each game (1st is the highest; the CFB Zeitgeist ledger).
- Oct 26–Nov 1W 46-45 vs. Texas State9 headlines · 45th of 138Boise State’s Spencer Danielson against G6 playoff, supports 24-team CFP Idaho Statesman
- Oct 19–25W 31-10 at Washington State8 headlines · 47th of 138Spencer Danielson explains how Boise State avoided upset against Washington State Sports Illustrated
- Oct 12–18No game0 headlinesHead coach Spencer Danielson praises Boise State for securing hard-fought road win over rival Fresno State Sports Illustrated
- Oct 5–11W 38-31 at Fresno State2 headlines · 70th of 138
- Sep 28–Oct 4W 37-18 vs. Utah State9 headlines · 48th of 138Spencer Danielson reacts to Boise State’s first Pac-12 win: ‘It’s huge’ Sports Illustrated
- Sep 21–27 · rebuiltW 32-7 at Western Michigan12 headlines · 33rd of 138Spencer Danielson after Boise State rout: 'Most complete game we've played' Sports Illustrated“Most complete game we've played”Spencer Danielson after Boise State rout, Sep 26
Each week as this page showed it at the time. Weeks marked rebuilt came before this page existed: they were built afterward from only what was known by the end of that week.
Watch the biggest plays from Boise State’s games, ranked by how much each moved the chance to win.
Poach watch
This winter
Our poach model, on his record so far, the win chances for every game he has left, his program, his pay and his background. Ranked against the 132 FBS head coaches this season. The zone words describe the market’s interest; none of them says he is leaving.
What drives his number
The biggest factors in his profile, each against the typical FBS head coach today. The games he has left are priced into the number, not listed here.
- ▲ HigherHis team is 7-1, outscoring opponents by 12.2 points a game · AP-ranked
- ▲ HigherHis 3rd season at Boise State
- ▲ HigherAge 37 · neither at his alma mater nor in the state he was born in
How good is this number? It ranks a head coach who leaves for another head-coaching job ahead of one who stays 78 to 82% of the time, and its average came within a point of the share who actually left. What it can’t do
Tested on every FBS head coach from 2012 through 2025, each season scored by a model fit only on the seasons before it. From three games on, given one coach who left for a head-coaching job elsewhere or an NFL coordinator job and one who stayed, it ranked the one who left ahead 79 to 82% of the time; in a season’s first two games, 78%. Its average chance came within a point of the share who actually left. It counts a move a coach makes while he still holds the job; when his school ends it, that doesn’t count, even if another school then hires him.
- The live number prices the games he has left with the power model’s ratings from this season. The test priced them with each team’s rating from the season before, because ratings made during past seasons were not kept, so this live version could not be replayed.
- Programs new to FBS have no FBS record before this season in the data it reads, so their coaches are scored without one.
- It is frozen: it learns nothing from 2026 until a deliberate refit.
- A coach hired in December needs his background (age, alma mater, the state he was born in) added before his first game, or he shows as not rated.
Fans
Fan chatter
- Oct 31W 46-45 vs. Texas State
Please other schools throw the bag at Danielson. And take Chinander as well.
Boise State fan - Oct 24W 31-10 at Washington State
The Sepencer Danielson style of defense
Boise State fan - Oct 10W 38-31 at Fresno State
Danielson too loyal or athletic budget too broke to pay buyout and find another one
Boise State fan
Earlier weeks
- Oct 3W 37-18 vs. Utah State
Danielson HC, Harsin OC, Avalos DC
Boise State fan - Sep 26W 32-7 at Western Michigan
If I used Kalshi, the safest bet would be "Spencer Danielson starts his interview with thank you Jesus"
Boise State fan - Sep 19W 38-24 vs. South Dakota
I can't wait for Danielson's post game interview for this
Boise State fan - Sep 12W 38-20 vs. Memphis
Jeanty might actually be the greatest RB of all time after carrying Spencer Danielson and Madsen to the playoffs
Boise State fan - Sep 5L 27-34 at Oregon
I believe Gary Danielson retired after last season, so at least we won't have him on CBS broadcasts anymore
Boise State fan
Several stories about him this week
Sat Nov 7: Colorado State
72nd of 104 FBS head coaches · from a few outlets and r/CFB
Sports Illustrated Nov 1 · one outlet
What they’re talking about
The headlines for each topic are on the News tab.
Dozens of stories about him this season
from many outlets and r/CFB
Boise State coach Spencer Danielson: Western Michigan 'absolutely beat Michigan'
Battle Creek Enquirer +4 Sep 23 · several outlets
All 6 articles
What they’re talking about
The headlines for each topic are on the News tab.
Could another school hire him? What has he said?
Across his career
56 stories about him across 4 seasons
Stories are headlines grouped by what they are about, counted through Nov 4.
Stats
Big games
The big-game ledger
How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.
1-1 against his rivals. Nobody he faced three or more times has a winning record against him.
ATS is his record against the spread: did his team beat the closing betting line, winning by more than it or losing by less? Lines start in 2013; a dash means fewer than 6 of those games had one. One-score games carry no spread record: a big favorite that wins a close game has almost always failed to cover, so that number would say nothing about the coach.
Signature games
Tags describe each game; they aren’t scores. The weighting that picks these games is still being tested.
How he plays
Run/pass mix, by field position
Ran more than the situation called for under Hamdan.
2,203 run and pass snaps at Boise State, 2023–2025, his own games, one row per offensive coordinator. Each cell is how much more often he passed than the rest of FBS did in the same situation (field zone, down, distance, score, quarter, same season), in percentage points.
Pass rate, stint by stint
Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next, against the FBS-wide average of 41% pass. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.
Season-to-season pass-rate range for all 449 FBS coaching stints with at least three covered seasons, 2004–2025.
Building the roster
Five numbers on how he actually stocks a roster, from signing day to draft day.
His recruiting, really
His 3 ranked Boise State classes of his own have averaged #59 nationally — best #51, worst #64.
His class — he had the full signing cycle
Rank is each signing class’s national recruiting rank (#1 is best). Only a class he had a full signing cycle to build counts as his.
Roster ownership
Roster ownership
of his 2026 roster arrived on his watch — 97 of 114 players. The other 17 are holdovers from before he was hired.
Of his own players on this roster, 13% came through the transfer portal; the rest are non-portal arrivals (high-school signees, JUCO transfers, walk-ons).
18% of his 132 new players since 2024 came through the portal (FBS programs, same seasons: 29%) — well below the FBS rate. His share was 18% in 2024 and 15% in 2026.
Graded on the players who arrived and the players who left together, his portal seasons came out worse than most FBS programs’ in 2 of the 3 seasons graded. our read
Each player counts once, in the season he arrived. 2021, the first season of portal tracking here, is left off because its arrival records look incomplete (about 31 new players per FBS team, against 52 in 2022). Portal grade: the site’s position-value-weighted scoring (the same engine as the Portal Heat feed and the “Who won the portal” grade): the value of the players who came in minus the value of the ones who left, ranked against every FBS program’s grade that same season. A season with fewer than 4 transfers in and out is not graded.
“His own” means the player arrived while he was head coach; “inherited” means a predecessor brought him in.
Size up front
Size up front
Offensive linemen on his Boise State rosters have averaged 5 lb lighter than the FBS average (2024–2026) — lighter than 83% of FBS coaching runs since 2010. In the three seasons before he arrived, Boise State’s line averaged within a few pounds of the FBS average.
Average listed weight of every offensive lineman on each season’s roster, holdovers included, against every FBS roster that season (2010 on; a program needs 3+ seasons under him to appear). Weights are the ones programs publish, and programs list differently. This describes size only — not scheme, and not quality.
Where he recruits
is his biggest recruiting state: 41 of 111 signees (37%) across his 2023–2026 tenure, drawn from 18 states in all. Next: TX (18).
50% of his signees come from CA and its 3 border states (OR 7, AZ 6, NV 2).
Off this map: 5 signees to the east (FL 2, MD 2, others).
- median hometown distance
- 670 mi
- within 100 mi
- 11%
- within 500 mi
- 36%
- beyond 1,000 mi
- 30%
The map counts signed recruits across his tenure; the distance figures cover his current roster, transfers and walk-ons included. Two different groups, kept separate on purpose.
The NFL pipeline
The NFL pipeline
players drafted into the NFL off his teams here. None were his own recruits yet: all 3 roster-verified picks arrived under Andy Avalos. 1 went in the first round.
| Year | Pick | Player | Pos | NFL team | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R4.11 | Kage Casey | Offensive Tackle |  Denver Broncos | recruited under Andy Avalos |
| 2025 | R1.06 | Ashton Jeanty | Running Back |  Las Vegas Raiders | recruited under Andy Avalos |
| 2025 | R6.20 | Ahmed Hassanein | Defensive Edge |  Detroit Lions | recruited under Andy Avalos |
A pick counts toward his tenure when the player’s final college season was one he coached, a checkable rule rather than a claim about who developed the player. A blank note means the player is on a verified roster and arrived on his watch. “Estimated” means no roster record, so the final season is assumed to be the year before the draft.
News
Stories about him
Headlines, grouped by what they are about. Each is the outlet’s own.
This week
This season
Press conference and quotes
- Sports Illustrated +1Spencer Danielson breaks down Boise State's first fall camp scrimmageAug 16
All 2 articles
Awful Announcing +1Boise State coach Spencer Danielson says Western Michigan is ‘undefeated’ ahead of matchupSep 21- Sports Illustrated +1Boise State's Spencer Danielson explains what makes new Pac-12 'special'Sep 29
All 2 articles
- Sports IllustratedWhat Boise State head coach Spencer Danielson said ahead of fall campAug 3
- 247SportsWatch Spencer Danielson's pre-camp press conferenceAug 4
Conference and schedule
- Athlon SportsSpencer Danielson Has Boise State ‘On the Hunt’ for Another Playoff BerthOct 22
- JimSumnerSportsPac-12 Tuesday: On Jesse Legree, Spencer Danielson and College Football’s Greener GrassOct 27
- Idaho StatesmanBoise State’s Spencer Danielson against G6 playoff, supports 24-team CFPOct 30
Win
- Battle Creek Enquirer +4Boise State coach Spencer Danielson: Western Michigan 'absolutely beat Michigan'Sep 23
All 6 articles
On3Boise State coach Spencer Danielson: Western Michigan 'absolutely beat Michigan'Yahoo SportsBoise State's Spencer Danielson says Western Michigan beat MichiganBattle Creek EnquirerBoise State's Spencer Danielson says Western Michigan beat MichiganEleven WarriorsSkull Session: Ryan Day is the Eighth-Most Handsome Coach in College Football, Spencer Danielson Calls Western Michigan “An Undefeated Football Team, Period”Yahoo SportsBoise State's Spencer Danielson labels Western Michigan 'undefeated,' says 'they absolutely beat Michigan'YardbarkerBoise State's Spencer Danielson on Western Michigan: 'They are an undefeated football team' - Idaho StatesmanWhy Spencer Danielson was ‘hot’ after Boise State’s impressive, vital winSep 26
- Sports IllustratedSpencer Danielson after Boise State rout: 'Most complete game we've played'Sep 26
Game preview
- Sports Illustrated +1Boise State coach Spencer Danielson previews massive Week 1 test against No. 2 OregonAug 31
All 2 articles
- Sports IllustratedBoise State's Spencer Danielson frustrated with officiating in first half vs. MemphisSep 12
Quarterback and depth chart
In his own words
Every quote, back to May 2026
In his own words
Hats off to the leadership in that locker room because when everything was going sideways, and we had some hard conversations on the sideline, they never flinched
We got to find ways to keep learning and growing and being the best
[Madsen] is one of the greatest leaders I’ve ever been around, he’s one of the best teammates I’ve ever been around, he’s one of the best quarterbacks I’ve ever been around
It’s a community effort
He shows up and just goes to work… It’s not just the flash plays, he makes the hard block in protection, he runs down on kickoff, he’s our kickoff-returner, he’s doing all the team things too
Huge win for our program
It’s the most complete game we’ve had all season
[Being down 17-3 at home] is not how you want to start a football game, I don’t care who you play
Do we have what everybody else has? No, but I do know we have more than enough
The reality is, we haven’t done anything yet
First and foremost, he’s an elite human being
Career
Coaching career
The arc of his career is on Now.
Steady no large move in either direction on our stature ladder
3rd-best Boise State tenure of 9 by the numbers.
Followed Andy Avalos (2021–2023).
| Season | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record & result | |||||
| Record | 3-1 | 12-2 | 9-5 | 7-1 | |
| Postseason | L bowl | CFP loss | L bowl | — | |
| Coordinators | |||||
| OC | Bush Hamdan | Dirk Koetter / Nate Potter | Matt Miller / Nate Potter | Nate Potter / Zak Hill | |
| DC | Kane Ioane / Spencer Danielson | Erik Chinander / Tyler Stockton | Erik Chinander / Tyler Stockton | Erik Chinander / Terrence Brown | |
| Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile | |||||
| Offense | 84 | 91 | 58 | 96 | |
| Defense | 54 | 58 | 73 | 61 | |
| Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script | |||||
| 1st-down pass% | 37.5 | 35.5 | 38.6 | 36.1 | |
| Red-zone pass% | 26.3 | 35.3 | 31.2 | 43.5 | |
| 4th-down go%opp. territory | 17.1 | 40.5 | 40.5 | 53.8 | |
Outperforms his recruiting talent on offense and performs about as expected for his recruiting talent on defense.
Typical size for position, once adjusted for position mix.
A typical class-year mix of incoming transfers.
Coach of the Year: Mountain West Coach of the Year (2024)
2 player-seasons honored (All-America / national award): Ashton Jeanty (2023), Ashton Jeanty (2024)
Was he good?
The data leans positive, where the data can separate from zero: every conclusive reading points the same way.
+1.1 pts at Boise State · #605 of 1290 · middle half