Tim Polasek

Head coach · North Dakota State
1st season · since 2026

At school7-2since 2026 · 7-2 this seasonHot seatCool0% · 123rd of 132 jobsLast gameW 31-7vs UTEP · Oct 31NextByethen at Hawai'i · Sat Nov 14
This week · as of Wed Nov 4

7-2, on track for 9-3 in the regular season.

Now

Career arc

This week Wed Nov 4

  • Last gameW 31-7 vs. UTEP Sat Oct 31
  • This season7-2
  • On track for9-3 regular season
  • Nextat Hawai'i Sat Nov 14 (no game this week)
  • Stature55th of 138 FBS programs

What the result changed

  • Playoff odds 0.4% → 0.2% CFB Zeitgeist forecast, before and after

Saturday: at Hawai'i

No game this week · Sat Nov 14, 11:59 pm ET The CW · Hawai'i is 2-6 · First meeting between Polasek and Timmy Chang as head coaches · North Dakota State’s chance to win: 72% (the site’s model)

One headline named him in the last 7 days

85th of 138 FBS head coaches

What they are talking about, week and season

Offense: 97th of 138 per play. Defense: 3rd.

Offense, per play97thOffense, big plays17thDefense, per play3rdDefense, points allowed per trip inside the 402ndWorstBest
Offense, per play97th of 138Offense, big plays17th of 138Defense, per play3rd of 138Defense, points allowed per trip inside the 402nd of 138WorstBest
Through 9 games. Each tick is an FBS team, adjusted for opponent strength (CFB Zeitgeist model); the dot is North Dakota State. The other two rows are where North Dakota State stands furthest from the middle. Early-season numbers move a lot.

3 games left

  1. Sat Nov 14at Hawai'i (2-6)The CW72%
  2. Sat Nov 21vs. Northern Illinois (0-8)The CW93%
  3. Fri Nov 27at San José State (4-5)CBS Sports Network74%

Percent: North Dakota State’s chance to win, from the site’s model. Records are through today. Networks as announced; the rest are set closer to kickoff.

How the season got here

Where North Dakota State stood among 138 FBS programs by stature after each game (1st is the highest; the CFB Zeitgeist ledger).

46th52nd58thPreseason51stJacksonville State W 33-7Jacksonville State W 33-7W 33-7Jacksonville …50thFordham W 38-0Fordham W 38-0W 38-0Fordham51stAir Force W 38-32Air Force W 38-32W 38-32Air Force51stSacramento State W 31-10Sacramento State W 31-10W 31-10Sacramento St…50thWyoming W 28-0Wyoming W 28-0W 28-0Wyoming51stUNLV L 7-13UNLV L 7-13L 7-13UNLV53rdNevada W 31-17Nevada W 31-17W 31-17Nevada54thNew Mexico L 16-21New Mexico L 16-21L 16-21New Mexico53rdUTEP W 31-7UTEP W 31-7W 31-7UTEP55thBye55th
  1. Oct 26–Nov 1W 31-7 vs. UTEP1 headline · 87th of 138NDSU’s Tim Polasek Sends Message on QB Nathan Hayes vs. UTEP Heavy
  2. Oct 19–25L 16-21 at New Mexico2 headlines · 73rd of 138
  3. Oct 12–18W 31-17 vs. Nevada1 headline · 82nd of 138
  4. Oct 5–11L 7-13 at UNLV1 headline · 83rd of 138NDSU Coach Tim Polasek Sounds Off on Blown Call vs. UNLV Heavy
  5. Sep 28–Oct 4W 28-0 vs. Wyoming2 headlines · 75th of 138
  6. Sep 21–27 · rebuiltNo game0 headlines

Each week as this page showed it at the time. Weeks marked rebuilt came before this page existed: they were built afterward from only what was known by the end of that week.

Watch the biggest plays from North Dakota State’s games, ranked by how much each moved the chance to win.

Poach watch

This winter

38%chance he leaves this winter for a head-coaching job elsewhere, or an NFL coordinator jobCoveted4th-highest of 132 FBS head coaches
0%50%+

Our poach model, on his record so far, the win chances for every game he has left, his program, his pay and his background. Ranked against the 132 FBS head coaches this season. The zone words describe the market’s interest; none of them says he is leaving.

What drives his number

The biggest factors in his profile, each against the typical FBS head coach today. The games he has left are priced into the number, not listed here.

  • ▲ Higher
    His team is 7-2, outscoring opponents by 16.2 points a game
  • ▲ Higher
    No FBS record for him before this season · North Dakota State moved up to FBS this year, and its seasons below FBS are not in the data
  • ▲ Higher
    Age 47 · neither at his alma mater nor in the state he was born in
How good is this number? It ranks a head coach who leaves for another head-coaching job ahead of one who stays 78 to 82% of the time, and its average came within a point of the share who actually left. What it can’t do

Tested on every FBS head coach from 2012 through 2025, each season scored by a model fit only on the seasons before it. From three games on, given one coach who left for a head-coaching job elsewhere or an NFL coordinator job and one who stayed, it ranked the one who left ahead 79 to 82% of the time; in a season’s first two games, 78%. Its average chance came within a point of the share who actually left. It counts a move a coach makes while he still holds the job; when his school ends it, that doesn’t count, even if another school then hires him.

  • The live number prices the games he has left with the power model’s ratings from this season. The test priced them with each team’s rating from the season before, because ratings made during past seasons were not kept, so this live version could not be replayed.
  • Programs new to FBS have no FBS record before this season in the data it reads, so their coaches are scored without one.
  • It is frozen: it learns nothing from 2026 until a deliberate refit.
  • A coach hired in December needs his background (age, alma mater, the state he was born in) added before his first game, or he shows as not rated.