Tyson Helton

Head coach · Western Kentucky
8th season · since 2019

At school60-41since 2019 · 3-5 this seasonHot seatHot24% · 14th of 132 jobsLast gameL 21-35vs Delaware · Oct 27Nextat Middle TennesseeSat Nov 7 · 3:30 pm ET
This week · as of Wed Nov 4

3-5, on track for 5-7 in the regular season.

Now

Career arc

Stature score reached, by season of his head-coaching careerFBS medianWestern KentuckyMiddle TennesseeMiddle TennesseeNational Programrespectable, streakyRegional Programthe building-block levelWestern Kentucky when he took over: 23.9 (Regional Program I), its final 2018 readingtook overWestern Kentucky, 2019: 9-4, Regional Program IWestern Kentucky, 2019: 9-4, Regional Program I20199-4Western Kentucky, 2020: 5-7, Regional Program I20205-7Western Kentucky, 2021: 9-5, Regional Program I20219-5Western Kentucky, 2022: 9-5, Regional Program I20229-5Western Kentucky, 2023: 8-5, Regional Program I20238-5Western Kentucky, 2024: 8-6, Regional Program I20248-6Western Kentucky, 2025: 9-4, Regional Program I20259-4Western Kentucky, 2026: 3-5, Regional Program IIWestern Kentucky, 2026: 3-5, Regional Program II20263-5+1.1best: 2022gray dashed: rival programs · ○ the program when he took over · Dashed segments are program changes — spacing is not proportional to calendar time

Bowls and playoffs: 5-2

2019First Responder BowlW 23-202020LendingTree BowlL 21-392021Boca Raton BowlW 59-382022New Orleans BowlW 44-232023Famous Toastery BowlW 38-352024Boca Raton BowlL 17-272025New Orleans BowlW 27-16

This week Wed Nov 4

  • Last gameL 21-35 vs. Delaware Tue Oct 27
  • This season3-5
  • Hot seat24% 14th of 132
  • On track for5-7 regular season
  • Nextat Middle Tennessee Sat Nov 7
  • Stature90th of 138 FBS programs

What the result changed

  • Playoff odds 0.1% → <0.1% CFB Zeitgeist forecast, before and after

Win and he’s at 20%. Lose and he’s at 29%.

at Middle Tennessee, Sat Nov 7, 3:30 pm ET ESPN+ · Middle Tennessee is 4-4 · Helton vs. Derek Mason: 2-0 · Western Kentucky’s chance to win: 62% (the site’s model)

CoolWarmHotBoilingIf Western Kentucky wins: 20%, 20th of 132Now: 24%If Western Kentucky loses: 29%, 10th of 1320%50%+
CoolWarmHotBoiling0%50%+
  • If Western Kentucky wins: 20%, 20th of 132
  • Now: 24%
  • If Western Kentucky loses: 29%, 10th of 132
His chance of being out after the season, now and after Saturday. Each tick is an FBS head coach’s number today; ranks are against today’s field. From the site’s hot-seat model.

Is he getting fired?

24% chance he’s out after the season · 14th of 132 FBS head coaches · Hot

Coolunder 10%Warm10–20%Hot20–35%Boiling35% upNow14% had they won14% had they wonLoss 29%Win 20%5%13%15%20%20%31%22%16%24%Pre1L at NevadaL2L at GeorgiaL3L at IndianaL4W vs. MercyhurstW5L at New Mexico StateL6W vs. Missouri StateW7W at Sam HoustonW8L vs. DelawareL9Chance to win at Middle Tennessee62%10Chance to win vs. Jacksonville State34%11Chance to win at Liberty8%12Chance to win vs. Kennesaw State61%Game number. Under each game: the result, or his team’s chance to win it
CoolWarmHotBoilingNow14% had they won14% had they wonLoss 29%Win 20%5%24%Pre368912Game
Dark line: his number after each game; a small dot just before a game is where it stood at kickoff, after other results moved it. Gray: where it could go, 8 seasons in 10 (darker, the middle half). The hollow dot: had his last game gone the other way. From the site’s hot-seat model.

If he finishes…

Bar: how likely that finish isNumber: his chance of being out

  1. 3-936%
  2. 4-827%
  3. 5-718%
  4. 6-611%
  5. 7-56%

The case for a change

  • 010-win seasons in 7 years here. His best is 9 wins, four times.
  • 0-6against AP top-25 teams here, 0-4 against the top 10
  • 0-3against Liberty here, including 3 straight losses. Next meeting: week 12, on the road.

The case for patience

  • 7straight wins over Middle Tennessee (a rival). Next meeting: week 10, on the road.
  • 60wins here, the most by any Western Kentucky coach since 2007 (30 more than anyone)
  • 5 of 6recent seasons with 8+ wins

Facts from his record in this job, both ways. No verdict.

Why his number is where it is

Our hot-seat model, on his record so far, the win chances for every game he has left, and his contract (a bigger buyout, relative to pay, makes a change costlier). Ranked against the 132 FBS head coaches with 3+ games this season.

All seven of his finished seasons here ended Cool. Now hotter than at this point in any of them.

His hot seat, week by week

The chance he’s out by the end of that season, as it stood after every week of his tenure here, by today’s model.

BoilingHotWarmCool201920202021202220232024202520262019, week 3 (3 games in): 6%, 45th-hottest of 106 FBS jobs2019, week 4 (3 games in): 6%, 56th-hottest of 129 FBS jobs2019, week 5 (4 games in): 4%, 64th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2019, week 6 (5 games in): 3%, 71st-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2019, week 7 (6 games in): 2%, 79th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2019, week 8 (7 games in): 2%, 79th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2019, week 9 (8 games in): 2%, 77th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2019, week 10 (9 games in): 2%, 74th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2019, week 11 (10 games in): 2%, 82nd-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2019, week 12 (10 games in): 2%, 80th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2019, week 13 (11 games in): 1%, 84th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2019, week 14 (12 games in): 1%, 83rd-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2019, week 15 (12 games in): 1%, 82nd-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2020, week 6 (4 games in): 18%, 17th-hottest of 67 FBS jobs2020, week 7 (5 games in): 19%, 17th-hottest of 69 FBS jobs2020, week 8 (6 games in): 17%, 19th-hottest of 74 FBS jobs2020, week 9 (7 games in): 17%, 22nd-hottest of 76 FBS jobs2020, week 10 (8 games in): 17%, 24th-hottest of 96 FBS jobs2020, week 11 (9 games in): 14%, 27th-hottest of 100 FBS jobs2020, week 12 (10 games in): 12%, 43rd-hottest of 117 FBS jobs2020, week 13 (10 games in): 12%, 44th-hottest of 124 FBS jobs2020, week 14 (11 games in): 8%, 57th-hottest of 126 FBS jobs2020, week 15 (11 games in): 8%, 54th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2020, week 16 (11 games in): 8%, 48th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2021, week 4 (3 games in): 17%, 34th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 5 (4 games in): 17%, 32nd-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 6 (5 games in): 19%, 28th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 7 (6 games in): 15%, 31st-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 8 (7 games in): 12%, 44th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 9 (8 games in): 9.5%, 49th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 10 (9 games in): 7%, 58th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 11 (10 games in): 6%, 59th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 12 (11 games in): 5%, 60th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 13 (12 games in): 3%, 67th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 14 (12 games in): 3%, 67th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 15 (12 games in): 3%, 68th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2022, week 3 (3 games in): 1%, 95th-hottest of 125 FBS jobs2022, week 4 (4 games in): 1%, 99th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 5 (5 games in): 2%, 96th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 6 (6 games in): 2%, 92nd-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 7 (7 games in): 1%, 98th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 8 (8 games in): 1%, 98th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 9 (9 games in): 2%, 92nd-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 10 (10 games in): 1%, 98th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 11 (11 games in): 1%, 96th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 12 (12 games in): 1%, 93rd-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 13 (12 games in): 1%, 90th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 14 (12 games in): 1%, 90th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 15 (12 games in): 1%, 90th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2023, week 3 (3 games in): 2%, 80th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2023, week 4 (4 games in): 3%, 80th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 5 (5 games in): 2%, 91st-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 6 (6 games in): 1%, 98th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 7 (6 games in): 1%, 95th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 8 (7 games in): 2%, 86th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 9 (8 games in): 2%, 83rd-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 10 (9 games in): 2%, 88th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 11 (10 games in): 2%, 80th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 12 (11 games in): 1%, 80th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 13 (12 games in): 1%, 82nd-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 14 (12 games in): 1%, 82nd-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 15 (12 games in): 1%, 82nd-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2024, week 3 (3 games in): 6%, 52nd-hottest of 111 FBS jobs2024, week 4 (4 games in): 4%, 74th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 5 (5 games in): 4%, 69th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 6 (5 games in): 4%, 67th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 7 (6 games in): 3%, 76th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 8 (7 games in): 2%, 84th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 9 (7 games in): 2%, 85th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 10 (8 games in): 2%, 86th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 11 (9 games in): 1%, 91st-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 12 (10 games in): 2%, 73rd-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 13 (11 games in): 3%, 70th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 14 (12 games in): 2%, 74th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 15 (12 games in): 2%, 74th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 16 (12 games in): 2%, 74th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2025, week 3 (3 games in): 11%, 35th-hottest of 118 FBS jobs2025, week 4 (4 games in): 8%, 53rd-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 5 (5 games in): 6%, 61st-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 6 (6 games in): 5%, 64th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 7 (6 games in): 5%, 60th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 8 (7 games in): 7%, 53rd-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 9 (8 games in): 4%, 61st-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 10 (9 games in): 3%, 68th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 11 (9 games in): 3%, 68th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 12 (10 games in): 2%, 70th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 13 (11 games in): 3%, 67th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 14 (12 games in): 3%, 61st-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 15 (12 games in): 3%, 61st-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 16 (12 games in): 3%, 61st-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2026, week 3 (3 games in): 19.7%, 27th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2026, week 4 (4 games in): 20%, 28th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 5 (5 games in): 28%, 15th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 6 (6 games in): 22%, 20th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 7 (7 games in): 16%, 29th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 8 (7 games in): 18%, 24th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 9 (8 games in): 24%, 15th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 10 (8 games in): 24%, 14th-hottest of 132 FBS jobsnowHottest: 2026, week 5▲ 1-4, outscored by 99Every season ended Cool, 2019–2025

Hottest: 2026, week 5 (28%, 15th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs that week). Top factor: ▲ Hotter 1-4, outscored by 99

Earlier seasons price the games left with power ratings rebuilt after those seasons ended.

What drives his number

The biggest factors, each against the typical FBS job today.

  • ▲ Hotter
    Year 8 · tenure, which this model overrates
    (why?)

    Tenure is one of this model’s strongest inputs, but its weight was set when retirements like Nick Saban’s and Bob Stoops’ still counted as being pushed out, so it overstates how much tenure matters.

  • ▲ Hotter
    3-5, outscored by 79

What happened to coaches like him, 2004–2025

A different comparison: past coaches, not today’s, grouped by one fact at a time. Neither line knows the games he has left or his contract, so they can sit above or below his chance.

Were 3-5 after 8 games
18% pushed out over results · of 379 coaches
Were in years 5-9, after 8 games
14% pushed out over results · of 700 coaches
The outcome
Pushed out over results — a firing, forced resignation, mutual parting or non-renewal, each read case by case. Leaving for a better job, or retiring on his own terms, doesn’t count.
Buyout
$2,916,007 reported, USA Today, Oct. 2025 · 3.1× total pay · a small buyout, which raises his chance of being let go · without it: 22%

How good is this number? Checked on every FBS coach from 2010 to 2025, with its percentages calibrated each season on earlier years only: they track what happened — coaches it put near 25% were out about a quarter of the time — and a version pricing the games left with the previous season’s ratings ranked jobs as well as the ranking this page used before. Each week it learns from coaches who were still on the job at that point, so a firing during the season counts. In the Boiling zone it has run a few points high. Every job, and the method.

His week

WKUSports · 155 views by Wednesday

No headlines named him in the last 7 days

What they are talking about, week and season

Offense: 106th of 138 per play. Defense: 92nd.

Offense, per play106thPassing offense121stDefense, per play92ndDefense, big plays allowed117thWorstBest
Offense, per play106th of 138Passing offense121st of 138Defense, per play92nd of 138Defense, big plays allowed117th of 138WorstBest
Through 8 games. Each tick is an FBS team, adjusted for opponent strength (CFB Zeitgeist model); the dot is Western Kentucky. The other two rows are where Western Kentucky stands furthest from the middle. Early-season numbers move a lot.

4 games left

  1. Sat Nov 7at Middle Tennessee (4-4)ESPN+62%
  2. Sat Nov 14vs. Jacksonville State (6-2)ESPN+34%
  3. Sat Nov 21at Liberty (7-1)8%
  4. Sat Nov 28vs. Kennesaw State (2-6)61%

Percent: Western Kentucky’s chance to win, from the site’s model. Records are through today. Networks as announced; the rest are set closer to kickoff.

How the season got here

Where Western Kentucky stood among 138 FBS programs by stature after each game (1st is the highest; the CFB Zeitgeist ledger).

81st87th93rdPreseason87thNevada L 14-49Nevada L 14-49L 14-49Nevada86thGeorgia L 20-70Georgia L 20-70L 20-70Georgia87thIndiana L 0-38Indiana L 0-38L 0-38Indiana87thMercyhurst W 52-7Mercyhurst W 52-7W 52-7Mercyhurst87thNew Mexico State L 13-34New Mexico State L 13-34L 13-34New Mexico St…87thMissouri State W 34-13Missouri State W 34-13W 34-13Missouri State88thSam Houston W 16-3Sam Houston W 16-3W 16-3Sam Houston88thDelaware L 21-35Delaware L 21-35L 21-35Delaware88th
  1. Oct 26–Nov 1L 21-35 vs. Delaware0 headlines
  2. Oct 19–25No game0 headlines
  3. Oct 12–18W 16-3 at Sam Houston0 headlines
  4. Oct 5–11W 34-13 vs. Missouri State0 headlines
  5. Sep 28–Oct 4L 13-34 at New Mexico State0 headlines
  6. Sep 21–27 · rebuiltW 52-7 vs. Mercyhurst0 headlines

Each week as this page showed it at the time. Weeks marked rebuilt came before this page existed: they were built afterward from only what was known by the end of that week.

Watch the biggest plays from Western Kentucky’s games, ranked by how much each moved the chance to win.

Report card

Offense carries it: 65th percentile offense, below the median defense at 49th.

Western Kentucky, every completed season graded against the whole field, then averaged.

Offense

B
of which —65th
efficiency — 65th percentile success rate, 2019–25
B61st
Standard-downs success
B68th
Passing-downs success
B60th
Trench push (line yards)
B-51st
Red-zone scoring rate
B67th
Power-success (short yardage)
C-30th
Ball security (giveaways per game)

Defense

C+
of which —49th
49th percentile SP+ defense, 2019–25
B-52nd
Front-7 havoc
B+74th
Secondary havoc
C-34th
Stuff rate (run defense)
B-57th
Takeaways per game

Each season is his team’s percentile among every team with that stat (the share it beat), averaged over his completed seasons here; a mid-season takeover year and the season in progress aren’t graded. Letters: A+ 90th percentile and up, A 80, B+ 70, B 60, B− 50, C+ 45, C 40, C− 30, D 15, F below.