This week · as of Wed Nov 4

7-1, won 6 straight, on track for 9-3 in the regular season.

Now

Career arc

This week Wed Nov 4

  • Last gameW 34-17 vs. Vanderbilt Sat Oct 24
  • This season7-1 won 6 straight
  • On track for9-3 regular season
  • Nextat Tennessee Sat Nov 7
  • Stature43rd of 138 FBS programs

What the result changed

  • AP poll #12 → #8 up four
  • Playoff odds 40% → 42% CFB Zeitgeist forecast, before and after

Saturday: at Tennessee

Sat Nov 7, 6:15 pm ET ESPN · No. 16 Tennessee is 6-2 · First meeting between Stein and Josh Heupel as head coaches · Kentucky’s chance to win: 39% (the site’s model)

His week

We have complete buy-in”

Will Stein on how Kentucky football avoids letdowns (Video)

Lexington Herald Leader headline · Sun Oct 25
It’s still about growth and improvement”

Will Stein on Kentucky football’s bye week (Video)

Lexington Herald Leader headline · Sun Oct 25

Many stories this week →

The headlines, Oct 25–Nov 4 from many outlets

Fans are feeling good about Kentucky

Kentucky plays 3 ranked teams out of the next 4.

Wildcats #6 in first CFP rankings! Will Stein is the best coach of all time!

Watch Party Boston Anyone going to be watching this weekend in Boston downtown? Looking to get a watch party going for this game.

Fan mood · last 3 weeks · more upbeat than 3 in 4 FBS fan bases

Offense: 28th of 138 per play. Defense: 39th.

Offense, per play28thOffense, starting field position8thDefense, per play39thDefense, knocking offenses off schedule110thWorstBest
Offense, per play28th of 138Offense, starting field position8th of 138Defense, per play39th of 138Defense, knocking offenses off schedule110th of 138WorstBest
Through 8 games. Each tick is an FBS team, adjusted for opponent strength (CFB Zeitgeist model); the dot is Kentucky. The other two rows are where Kentucky stands furthest from the middle. Early-season numbers move a lot.

4 games left

  1. Sat Nov 7at Tennessee (6-2)ESPN39%
  2. Sat Nov 14vs. Florida (5-3)ESPN50%
  3. Sat Nov 21at Missouri (6-2)40%
  4. Sat Nov 28vs. Louisville (5-3)50%

Percent: Kentucky’s chance to win, from the site’s model. Records are through today. Networks as announced; the rest are set closer to kickoff.

How the season got here

Where Kentucky stood among 138 FBS programs by stature after each game (1st is the highest; the CFB Zeitgeist ledger).

40th48th56thPreseason53rdYoungstown State W 45-13Youngstown State W 45-13W 45-13Youngstown St…51stAlabama L 17-45Alabama L 17-45L 17-45Alabama50thTexas A&M W 31-21Texas A&M W 31-21W 31-21Texas A&M46thSouth Alabama W 45-21South Alabama W 45-21W 45-21South Alabama46thSouth Carolina W 35-34South Carolina W 35-34W 35-34South Carolina44thLSU W 35-34LSU W 35-34W 35-34LSU44thOklahoma W 21-13Oklahoma W 21-13W 21-13Oklahoma44thVanderbilt W 34-17Vanderbilt W 34-17W 34-17Vanderbilt43rdBye43rd
  1. Oct 26–Nov 1No game19 headlines · 30th of 138Kentucky head coach Will Stein offers early thoughts on Tennessee Yahoo Sports“We have complete buy-in”Will Stein on how Kentucky football avoids letdowns (Video), Oct 25
  2. Oct 19–25W 34-17 vs. Vanderbilt48 headlines · 4th of 138What Kentucky’s Will Stein Said About Jared Curtis Sports Illustrated“We have complete buy-in”Will Stein on how Kentucky football avoids letdowns (Video), Oct 25
  3. Oct 12–18W 21-13 at Oklahoma13 headlines · 27th of 138Will Stein does media tour following LSU win Yahoo Sports
  4. Oct 5–11W 35-34 vs. LSU34 headlines · 7th of 138Will Stein talks Kentucky's historic overtime win over #10 LSU Sports Illustrated
  5. Sep 28–Oct 4W 35-34 at South Carolina26 headlines · 18th of 138Watch Kentucky’s Will Stein make do-or-die call to end overtime thriller vs. South Carolina Yahoo Sports
  6. Sep 21–27 · rebuiltW 45-21 vs. South Alabama49 headlines · 4th of 138Will Stein called out Texas A&M’s lack of fire to help spark Kentucky’s breakthrough win Yahoo Sports

Each week as this page showed it at the time. Weeks marked rebuilt came before this page existed: they were built afterward from only what was known by the end of that week.

Watch the biggest plays from Kentucky’s games, ranked by how much each moved the chance to win.

Poach watch

This winter

4%chance he leaves this winter for a head-coaching job elsewhere, or an NFL coordinator jobSettled49th-highest of 132 FBS head coaches
0%50%+

Our poach model, on his record so far, the win chances for every game he has left, his program, his pay and his background. Ranked against the 132 FBS head coaches this season. The zone words describe the market’s interest; none of them says he is leaving.

What drives his number

The biggest factors in his profile, each against the typical FBS head coach today. The games he has left are priced into the number, not listed here.

  • ▼ Lower
    His first season at Kentucky
  • ▲ Higher
    No record for him here before this season · his first year in the job
  • ▲ Higher
    Age 37 · neither at his alma mater nor in the state he was born in
How good is this number? It ranks a head coach who leaves for another head-coaching job ahead of one who stays 78 to 82% of the time, and its average came within a point of the share who actually left. What it can’t do

Tested on every FBS head coach from 2012 through 2025, each season scored by a model fit only on the seasons before it. From three games on, given one coach who left for a head-coaching job elsewhere or an NFL coordinator job and one who stayed, it ranked the one who left ahead 79 to 82% of the time; in a season’s first two games, 78%. Its average chance came within a point of the share who actually left. It counts a move a coach makes while he still holds the job; when his school ends it, that doesn’t count, even if another school then hires him.

  • The live number prices the games he has left with the power model’s ratings from this season. The test priced them with each team’s rating from the season before, because ratings made during past seasons were not kept, so this live version could not be replayed.
  • Programs new to FBS have no FBS record before this season in the data it reads, so their coaches are scored without one.
  • It is frozen: it learns nothing from 2026 until a deliberate refit.
  • A coach hired in December needs his background (age, alma mater, the state he was born in) added before his first game, or he shows as not rated.