Fan Intelligence — Methodology

Sourced from the live signal registry. Last updated: 2026-06-23 00:19 UTC. 120 active sources across 122 registered.

→ Data freshness (last-run-per-source)

0. Current coverage

Live counts, refreshed on every methodology build.

• 78,062 fan-conversation documents indexed under the fan-intelligence layer
• 25,494 tier-A numeric observations (industry-grade ratings, market lines)
• 7,140 team-by-week cohort sentiment cells
• 596 team-by-week divergence rows (where the cohorts disagree)

Top divergence from the latest refresh

Sources with runs in the last 7 days

1. What we publish, and how we label it

Every number on the CFB Zeitgeist's fan-intelligence pages is tagged with a confidence tier — A, B, C, or D — determined by its worst-tier contributing source. The tier controls how the number can be shown.

Tier A — Numeric publication OK — raw values like pageviews, get-in price, volume are displayed directly.

Tier B — Aggregated signal only — sample size and effective-N are always shown; individual posts appear as pseudonymous citations.

Tier C — Rank or trend only — we publish where a source ranks relative to itself or others, never the raw number.

Tier D — Editorial citation only — quoted text with a backlink, never included in numeric aggregates.

2. Effective sample size & the floor rule

Every (team, cohort, week) cell is assigned an effective sample size (effective_n) — the weighted sum of cohort-weights from every document contributing to that cell.

• effective_n < 30 — the cell shows a rank or "Awaiting Signal." We never display a sentiment number at this level, because the sample is too thin to support one honestly.
• 30 ≤ effective_n < 100 — sentiment is shown with an explicit sample-size badge so readers can weight the signal themselves.
• effective_n ≥ 100 — sentiment is shown with standard styling.

In addition: if any contributing source carries Tier C confidence, the whole cell is rendered as a rank rather than a number, regardless of effective_n. Tier D sources never contribute to numeric aggregates — they appear only as pull-quote citations.

3. Source catalog

Every source currently registered, grouped by tier, with cadence, license, publication form, and last successful fetch.

4. Cohort weight matrix

Each source contributes to cohort aggregates with weights drawn from the matrix below. Weights do not sum to 1 within an axis — a Reddit r/CFB post is simultaneously millennial and national-narrative and mildly analytics-tilted, and the weights reflect that. Tier D sources are excluded from numeric aggregation.

5. Known coverage gaps

6. Weight governance

Weights are editorial judgment grounded in public demographic data (Pew, GWI, Edison, Kalshi platform disclosures). They are reviewed once per year in April, and prior weight versions are snapshotted so historical aggregates do not silently shift.

Corrections: open an issue on the repo or email corrections@cfb-index.com.

7. Glossary

Every Fan Intelligence term used on a player or team page has a definition here. The same entries back the ? popovers next to eyebrow labels throughout the site; this section is the canonical copy.

Belief Dial

How much a cohort believes in a player, 0–100, with sample + confidence attached.

The Belief Dial is our summary of a fan cohort's confidence in a player, mapped to a 0–100 scale. It blends weighted sentiment across qualifying mentions, adjusts for sarcasm risk, and is gated by a minimum effective sample. Below the floor we show "Awaiting Signal" rather than a fabricated number; above it we ship the dial with its sample size so readers can weight it themselves.

Example · Carr's own-fan Belief Dial sits at 72 (n=142, high confidence) — grounded optimism, not blind faith.

See also · Sarcasm Risk · Fan Pulse · Cohort Divergence

Cohesion

How aligned a fanbase is with itself — agreement minus in-fighting, 0–100.

Cohesion measures intra-fanbase agreement: how tightly one cohort's statements cluster around the same belief axis. High cohesion means the locker room of fans is singing one song. Low cohesion means a fractured base (starter debate, coaching take, portal anxiety). It is independent of whether the shared feeling is positive — you can have cohesive pessimism.

Example · Cohesion 88 after the NC semifinal loss: Notre Dame fans uniformly frustrated, not splintered.

See also · Fan Pulse · Swing · Sarcasm Risk

Cohort Divergence

How much cohorts disagree with each other about the same team or player this week.

Cohort Divergence is the dispersion of belief across the qualifying cohorts on a given (team, week) or (player, week) cell. A high score means own-fans, rivals, national, and media are reading the same events differently — the story where "who you ask" matters. Low divergence means consensus. Either is informative; divergence is a pointer to a deeper read.

Example · Georgia Week 8: own-fan belief 78, national 41, media 55 — the second-highest Cohort Divergence of the season.

See also · Fan Pulse · Respect Gap · Reality Gap

Fan Pulse

Cohort-weighted aggregate of belief this week, the top-line mood number.

Fan Pulse is the headline aggregate for a cohort's week: a sample-gated, sarcasm-adjusted blend of the qualifying mentions' sentiment. It is the same machinery as the Belief Dial but surfaced at the cohort or team level rather than per-player. When a page shows a single mood number, it is almost always Fan Pulse.

Example · Fan Pulse 61 (n=142, Sarcasm LOW) — the own-fan cohort is cautiously positive after a mid-season stumble.

See also · Belief Dial · Swing · Cohesion

Fanbase Archetype

Short editorial label for the mood-shape of a fanbase in a given week.

A Fanbase Archetype is a named editorial pattern — "Grounded Optimism," "Anxious Dynasty," "Rebuild Patience," "Siege Mentality" — that describes the mood-shape of a cohort this week. Archetypes are derived from belief, cohesion, swing, and sarcasm-risk together; they are shorthand meant to make the data legible at a glance, never a replacement for the underlying numbers.

Example · "Grounded Optimism" — Belief 72, Cohesion 88, Swing +4, Sarcasm Low. Confident but not frothy.

See also · Belief Dial · Cohesion · Swing

Main Character

The single player most-discussed by a cohort this week, regardless of sentiment.

Main Character is a recognition metric, not a quality metric: it names the player a cohort spent the most of its attention on this week. Offense-breaking QB, coach-in-crisis, portal story, Heisman darling, villain — any of them qualify. Pairing Main Character with sentiment color tells you whether the spotlight is warm, cold, or chaotic.

Example · Main Character of the Week: Arch Manning (Texas), national cohort, 85% negative — the offense's struggles became the national story.

See also · Rival Heat · Swing · Fan Pulse

Reality Check

How belief compares to independent signals like market odds, polls, and prior results.

Reality Check is our cross-reference against external signals — Kalshi and PolyMarket odds, AP/Coaches polls, SP+ projections, and prior-season production. It is presented as a single label (Aligned, Ahead, Behind, Contradicts) with the underlying deltas one click away. The goal is honesty about where our cohort signal and the broader world are in and out of step.

Example · Reality Check: AHEAD — fan Belief Dial 78 with market odds +450 implying only 18% — one of them is early, both are data.

See also · Respect Gap · Reality Gap · Fan Pulse

Reality Gap

Gap between fan belief and empirical on-field production — feelings vs. film.

Reality Gap is the signed distance between a cohort's Belief Dial and the player's cohort-adjusted on-field output (EPA, success rate, WEPA per play). Positive means fans are higher than the tape; negative means fans are sleeping on a performer the numbers love. The metric is framed as tension, not truth — both inputs are signals and both can move.

Example · A -9 Reality Gap for a mid-rung QB usually means the eye-test misses an efficient, low-variance operator.

See also · Belief Dial · Reality Check · Respect Gap

Respect Gap

Gap between national/media respect and what cohort-level belief says a player has earned.

Respect Gap is the signed difference between national or media consensus on a player (polls, watch lists, market odds) and the aggregated belief score from cohorts that cover them closely. A positive gap means the national view trails the on-the-ground signal; a negative gap means hype is outrunning the evidence. It is a diagnostic, not a rating — designed to surface stories.

Example · Carr's +14 Respect Gap this week: fans and beat writers have moved before the national polls have.

See also · Reality Check · Fan Pulse · Main Character

Rival Heat

How much rival fanbases are fixating on this player, scored against a 15-year baseline.

Rival Heat measures the volume and intensity of mentions from rival fanbases, normalized against the same rivals' baseline chatter about any opposing player. The score is 0–100, with canonical rival-obsession players (think the 2018 Clemson Trevor Lawrence lead-up) scoring 90+. Sub-cohorts break the heat apart by specific rival when the sample supports it.

Example · Rival Heat 83 — Michigan fans talk about Carr 4.2× more than the average opposing QB they've faced since 2018.

See also · Cohort Divergence · Main Character · Fan Pulse

Sarcasm Risk

Probability a stream of fan text is sarcastic — dampens belief when high.

Sarcasm Risk is the share of a cohort's qualifying mentions our classifier marks as ironic or sarcastic. It is shown as low / medium / high and is used to discount the Belief Dial when it would otherwise absorb a stream of "oh sure he's a Heisman lock" takes at face value. It is never perfect; we disclose the level so readers can apply their own adjustment.

Example · Belief Dial 61 with Sarcasm Risk HIGH — the real number is probably 10–15 points softer than it looks.

See also · Belief Dial · Cohesion · Fan Pulse

Swing

Week-over-week change in Fan Pulse, signed — the fastest-moving belief delta.

Swing is the signed change in a cohort's Fan Pulse from the prior publication window. Large positive swings flag breakout moments; large negative swings flag backlash. We publish swing alongside the current Pulse so a reader can see both the level and the trajectory without chart-reading, and we floor-rule both independently.

Example · Swing +18 after the Texas A&M game — the inflection point that turned a question-mark QB into a starter.

See also · Fan Pulse · Belief Dial · Main Character