Billy Lucas: RB · Liberty.
Closest statistical matches, adjusted for opponent strength.
Billy Lucas
Does a little of everything without one standout trait. Second year in the Liberty backfield. The first career honor came in 2023: All-Conference USA. A game that shows it: 131 rushing yards and 1 rushing TD against Western Kentucky — Week 13, 2024.
Play style
Plays within the scheme — consistent production without a dominant dimension.
Boom vs consistent · carry-yardage shape
Steady, not spectacular
Just 24.2% of his season rushing yards came on his 5 best carries — remarkably even — and he's stuffed on 9.8% of his carries. 6 carries for 23 yds vs Jacksonville State; 19 for 131 vs Western Kentucky.
Counted from the play-by-play, so a carry or two can differ from the box score.
Closer · Q4-with-lead carry share
The closer
24.3% of carries overall (121/497) → 32.9% of Q4-with-lead carries (23/70) — 87.0% of those in competitive (≤16-pt) games.
Counted from the play-by-play, so a carry or two can differ from the box score.
Short-yardage / goal-line · enumeration
Who gets the tough yard
6 of the team's 18 inside-the-5 carries (33.3%).
No outlet on our list has written about this player by name this season.
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Game log · Week-by-week
2024 season · 11 games
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| Wk | Opp | CAR | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | W 41-24vs Campbell | 17 | 78 | 4.6 | 1 | 19 | |
| Wk 2 | W 30-24@ New Mexico State | 8 | 23 | 2.9 | 0 | 5 | |
| Wk 3 | W 28-10vs UTEP | 21 | 104 | 5.0 | 3 | 19 | 3 rushing TDs |
| Wk 4 | W 35-24vs East Carolina | 11 | 59 | 5.4 | 0 | 28 | |
| Wk 7 | W 31-24vs Florida International | 7 | 39 | 5.6 | 0 | 10 | |
| Wk 9 | L 24-27@ Kennesaw State | 11 | 52 | 4.7 | 0 | 20 | |
| Wk 10 | L 21-31vs Jacksonville State | 6 | 23 | 3.8 | 0 | 15 | |
| Wk 12 | W 35-34@ Massachusetts | 11 | 95 | 8.6 | 0 | 34 | |
| Wk 13 | W 38-21vs Western Kentucky | 19 | 131 | 6.9 | 1 | 36 | Season-high 131 yds |
| Wk 14 | L 18-20@ Sam Houston | 9 | 59 | 6.6 | 0 | 16 | |
 Bowl | L 7-26vs Buffalo | 3 | 57 | 19.0 | 0 | 55 | |
| Total | 123 | 720 | 5.9 | 5 | 55 |
Week 13 · 2024
W 38-21
The plays that mattered most
Rush profile · Shape, efficiency, and ball security
How he gets his yards, and how often it works
Success rate
50%119 carriesFumble rate
0.8%1 of 123 carriesStuffed
0 or fewer ydsGrind
1–3 ydsChunk
4–9 ydsExplosive
10+ yds5.9 yds/carry on 123 carries · 17% explosive (10+ yds) · 50% success rate.
Situational · Carry shape (PBP, full season)
Yardage DNA
Stuffed (≤0)
Grind (1–3)
Chunk (4–9)
Explosive (10+)
2 seasons under Jamey Chadwell, all run-heavy offenses — 21-5 over that span.
Splits · Per-game
2024 season · 11 games
Home vs Road
| YDS/g | YPC | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home6g | 72.3 | 5.2 | 0.8 |
| Road4g | 57.2 | 5.7 | 0.0 |
First half vs Second half
| YDS/g | YPC | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks 1-76g | 60.0 | 7.1 | 0.7 |
| Weeks 8+5g | 72.0 | 6.1 | 0.2 |
Supporting cast · Scheme
Staff and system around the player
Head Coach
Jamey Chadwell
Pass share
35.2%
289 pass / 533 run
Plays / game
68.5
12 games
Team sack rate
6.6%
305 dropbacks · PBP
Scheme: Run-heavy.
Player standing · 2024
123 carries and 5 catches in 11 games, about as many touches a game as a typical FBS running back who plays every week.
Recognition
Production · CFB Zeitgeist Score
Three-star recruit. Now #133 at the position.
How it ended
Two seasons at Liberty, 1,317 rushing yards — the college career is complete.
Four or fewer games in the first season, then ten or more.
Trophy case · Confirmed honors
What the selectors said
ALL-CONFERENCE USA
All-Conference USA mention (2023)
