Chance Warren

Senior running back for Navy. 2021: 260 rushing yards, 1 rushing TD, 11 catches.

RB · Navy · Sr.

5′10″ · 190 lb · Enterprise, AL

CFB Index 46 · #151 of 315 RBsHigh confidenceNavy 2021 alumnus

The story

4 running back for Navy. 2021: 260 rushing yards, 1 rushing TD, 11 catches.

Signed as a 2-star recruit to Navy in 2018.

His career, year by year

Recruiting

2★

WR recruit

No. 2515 nationally · Signed with Navy

No college snaps yet.

His career numbers, season by season

How it ended

Three seasons at Navy, 425 rushing yards — his college career is complete.

His career

He was on the field for 3 seasons. That is rarer than it sounds.

2018

Signed with Navy2-star out of Enterprise

Career arc

Recruit

★★

#2515 national

CFB

College

Navy

2019–2021

NFL

NFL Draft

—

Not drafted

Coaching lineage · 2019–2021

1 coach

2019–2021

Ken Niumatalolo

Navy

Played his entire career under Ken Niumatalolo.

2021 snapshot

Season context · Team result + system

3 seasons under Ken Niumatalolo — 18-17 over that span.

2019Navy11-2HC: Ken Niumatalolo · Run-heavy

2020Navy3-7HC: Ken Niumatalolo · Run-heavy, slow tempo

2021Navy4-8HC: Ken Niumatalolo · Run-heavy

Where this profile ranks vs the RB cohort

Box-score + play-by-play EPA percentiles

46Rotational starter #151 of 315?

High confidence13 metrics · season cumulative

Elite: explosive rate (96th percentile). Strength: success rate (91st percentile). Concern: td rate (22nd percentile).

Real play-by-play efficiency

Explosive rate#18 / 409 · 96th pct

14.6%

Success rate#39 / 409 · 91st pct

58.5%

Yards / carry#52 / 409 · 87th pct

6.8

EPA / carry#61 / 409 · 85th pct

0.39

TD rate#321 / 409 · 22nd pct

2.4%

Box-score rates (8)

Fumbles lost#1 / 222 · 86th pct

Yards / carry#53 / 343 · 84th pct

6.0

Rec yards#76 / 331 · 77th pct

169

Receptions#156 / 331 · 51st pct

Long run#270 / 343 · 20th pct

Rush yards#289 / 343 · 16th pct

260

Rush TDs#291 / 343 · 10th pct

Carries#340 / 343 · 1st pct

Season trend

EPA / carry— 2020 cohort too thin to compare (n=17)

Success rate— 2020 cohort too thin to compare (n=17)

Explosive rate— 2020 cohort too thin to compare (n=17)

Yards / carry— 2020 cohort too thin to compare (n=17)

TD rate— 2020 cohort too thin to compare (n=17)

Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season. Most bars are box-score rates; EPA / success-rate bars are computed from real play-by-play (offense only — no defensive EPA model exists yet).

Splits & context

Splits · Per-game

2021 season · 12 games

Home/Road · Season halves

Home vs Road

	YDS/g	YPC	TD/g
Home6g	22.3	5.5	0.2
Road6g	21.0	9.8	0.0

First half vs Second half

	YDS/g	YPC	TD/g
Weeks 1-76g	15.7	4.8	0.2
Weeks 8+6g	27.7	10.5	0.0

Supporting cast · Scheme

Staff and system around the player

2026 season

Head Coach

Brian Newberry

Scheme reads (pass share, tempo, sack rate) need at least 3 team games — 2 games in so far.

Awards

Player standing · 2021

Part-time starter

Splitting first-team reps — starts some weeks, rotates others.

Recognition

Roster2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex

Production · CFB Index Score

46 · #151 of 315 RBs

Two-star recruit. Now #151 at the position.

Career stats

Season	Team
2021	Navy	43	260	6.0	1	--
2020	Navy	29	95	3.3	3	--
2019	Navy	5	70	14.0	2	--
Career		77	425	5.5	6	--

Season	Team
2021	Navy	11	169	15.4	3	--
2020	Navy	6	94	15.7	0	--
2019	Navy	6	91	15.2	1	--
Career		23	354	15.4	4	--

Signature game

SIGNATURE GAME · Week 9 · 2021

W 20–17

at Tulsa

70 rush yds (10 car)

A wire-to-wire battle — won by 3 on the road.

With R. Riethman — 42 AVG · 1 IN 20 · 47 LONG · C. Acie — 80 rush yds (3 car)

Signature plays

Signature plays · top plays by |EPA|

The plays that mattered most

fact

Week 7 · Memphis · 4&7 · Q4 · EPA +3.71Chance Warren pass complete to Isaac Ruoss for 16 yds to the Memph 39 for a 1ST down MEMPHIS Penalty, Roughing Passer (15 Yards) to the Memph 46 for a 1ST down
Week 15 · Army · 4&4 · Q3 · EPA +3.57Chance Warren run for 26 yds to the Army 2 for a 1ST down
Week 6 · SMU · 3&4 · Q1 · EPA +3.14Chance Warren run for 23 yds for a TD, (Bijan Nichols KICK)
Week 13 · Temple · 3&15 · Q4 · EPA +3.00Tai Lavatai pass complete to Chance Warren for 24 yds to the Temp 15 for a 1ST down
Week 9 · Tulsa · 1&10 · Q3 · EPA +2.78Chance Warren run for 18 yds to the Tulsa 43 for a 1ST down TULSA Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the Tulsa 42 for a 1ST down
Week 13 · Temple · 2&7 · Q2 · EPA +2.70Xavier Arline pass complete to Chance Warren for 15 yds for a TD, (Bijan Nichols KICK)
Week 12 · East Carolina · 3&4 · Q2 · EPA +2.70Tai Lavatai pass complete to Chance Warren for 4 yds for a TD (Bijan Nichols KICK)
Week 6 · SMU · 2&8 · Q1 · EPA +2.62Tai Lavatai pass complete to Chance Warren for 21 yds to the SMU 48 for a 1ST down
Week 8 · Cincinnati · 3&7 · Q4 · EPA +2.47Tai Lavatai pass complete to Chance Warren for 17 yds to the Cincy 29 for a 1ST down
Week 13 · Temple · 2&4 · Q4 · EPA +2.33Tai Lavatai pass complete to Chance Warren for 4 yds for a TD, (Bijan Nichols KICK)

Game log

Game log · Week-by-week

2021 season · 12 games

Box score · CFBD

Wk	Opp	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG	Note
Wk 1	L 7-49vs Marshall	6	22	3.7	0	10
Wk 2	L 3-23vs Air Force	3	-2	-0.7	0	9
Wk 4	L 20-28@ Houston	1	3	3.0	0	3
Wk 5	W 34-30vs UCF	4	32	8.0	0	11
Wk 6	L 24-31vs SMU	3	30	10.0	1	23
Wk 7	L 17-35@ Memphis	2	9	4.5	0	10
Wk 8	L 20-27vs Cincinnati	5	22	4.4	0	14
Wk 9	W 20-17@ Tulsa	10	70	7.0	0	18	Season-high 70 yds
Wk 10	L 6-34@ Notre Dame	1	18	18.0	0	18
Wk 12	L 35-38vs East Carolina	4	30	7.5	0	9
Wk 13	W 38-14@ Temple	3	0	0.0	0	6
Wk 15	W 17-13@ Army	1	26	26.0	0	26
Total		43	260	7.6	1	26

Stats from CFBD · ESPN · fan discourse. Every figure computed from source tables — not invented. Methodology