CFB Zeitgeist RB Score
Awaiting
Chance Warren
Limited signal — not enough coverage for a story yet.
RB · NAVY · AMERICAN ATHLETIC
Chance Warren
- 4
- 5-10 | 190 lb
- Enterprise, AL
Heisman Heat
#1153
<1% win probability
Fan Belief
Awaiting
Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.
Respect Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
Reality Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
ACCOLADE PROBABILITY
Heisman
<1%
TOP RB AWARD
Doak Walker
—
CONSENSUS
All-American
—
Player Standing · 17 rungs
Tier 0 · Not on teamR01 · Scout team / redshirt
Scout team / redshirt. Developing behind the depth chart.
Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex
Development Trajectory · rushing yards
2020–2021+174%
Up 174% from first season to most-recent.
Career Arc
HS
Recruit
★★
CFB
College
Navy
NFL
NFL Draft
—
Identity & Role
The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.
Recruiting Pedigree
How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.
| Class | Profile | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 2-star | 0.7898 | No. 2515 recruit | HighSchool | Navy |
Transfer Arc
Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.
| Season | Move | Context |
|---|---|---|
| No transfer portal moves on file for this player. | ||
Heisman Lens · 2021 Season · Final
Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.
HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 20Heisman Futures
Not yet listed on major futures markets.
No achievements unlocked yet this season.
Selector Grid · 2025
AP—
FWAA—
AFCA—
WCFF—
SN—
SI—
Selector recognition fills in once the major honors lists (AP, FWAA, AFCA, Walter Camp, Sporting News, SI) are scraped and ingested.
NIL · Recruiting · NFL Draft
Market value, pedigree & pro outcome
Recruit stars
★★☆☆☆
to Navy
Composite
0.7898
#2515 national
Today’s Hot-Take
The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.
Anti-Take
PENDINGThe contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.
The Room on Chance Warren
Fan sentiment · Awaiting signal
The Room reads fan conversation around a player — who’s talking, what they believe, and how that shifts. It publishes once weekly volume rebuilds; for most players that’s in-season, when game-week chatter spikes.
Cohort divergence map
Cohort divergence reads how different fanbases talk about this player. Returns once weekly mentions clear the publish floor.
Rival Radar
How rival fanbases talk about Chance Warren
No rival-bucket mentions in the current season.
Signature Story
Awaiting candidate metric
He hasn't written his page yet — we'll start filling it in when there are enough snaps to rank against his peers.
Signature Moment
No signature moment on the ledger yet.
Returns once this player puts together a multi-game body of work — single-game flashes alone don't clear the bar.
Scenario Explorer
Available for players with a qualifying signature metric (passing yards, rushing yards, receiving yards, sacks, etc.). The slider projects how a season finishes if the current pace holds.
Why this is more than a rushing profile
The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.
Chance Warren is not a one-lane back. The profile is interesting because the workload spills beyond pure rushing volume: 260 rushing yards, 11 catches, and 157 return yards for Navy. That kind of all-purpose footprint gives the card a much richer story than a basic carry total.
2021 Season · Final
Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.
Last season
RB season snapshot
2021 season snapshot | final
2021 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Player identity What kind of player is this?
30-second read
What kind of player is this?
Efficient runner against FBS RB peers.
2021 Season · Final
2021 season snapshot | final
Rushing
CAR
43 55th
YDS
260 61st
YPC
6.0 85th
TD
1 56th
Receiving
REC
11 65th
YDS
169 85th
YPR
15.4 95th
TD
3 99th
Game Log
Week-by-week box
No per-game rows for this season yet — the table fills in as box scores arrive.
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score
Traditional history
Traditional Stats
Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.
Season context · Team result + system
2020Navy3-7HC: Ken Niumatalolo · Run-heavy, slow tempo
2021Navy4-8HC: Ken Niumatalolo · Run-heavy
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context
Advanced metrics second
Advanced Metrics
Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.
Opponent-adjusted rushing value. It helps separate empty volume from carries that actually move the scoreboard.
How much of the team's offense flows through this back once rushing work and receiving work are combined.
Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.
The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.
Open full stat explorer
| Group | Metric | Value | Rank | Pct | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rushing | Rushing yards | 260 | #291/735 | 61st pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Rushing | Rush TD | 1 | #323/739 | 56th pct | Scoringvs FBS RB |
| Rushing | Yards / carry | 6.0 | #108/735 | 85th pct | Efficiencyvs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Receptions | 11 | #195/552 | 65th pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Receiving yards | 169 | #82/548 | 85th pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Value | Rushing WEPA | +0.32 | #4/362 | 99th pct | Opponent-adjusted rushing value | 42 weighted playsvs FBS RB |
| Usage | Role share | 7.8% | #391/738 | 47th pct | Share of team offensevs FBS RB |
| Rushing | Carries | 43 | #333/739 | 55th pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Rushing | Rushing LONG | 26 | #327/733 | 56th pct | Metricvs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Receiving LONG | 49 | #50/540 | 91st pct | Metricvs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Yards / catch | 15.4 | #26/548 | 95th pct | Efficiencyvs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Receiving TD | 3 | #5/552 | 99th pct | Scoringvs FBS RB |
| Returns | Punt return yards | 138 | #5/27 | 85th pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Returns | Kick return avg | 19.0 | #93/199 | 54th pct | Efficiencyvs FBS RB |
| Returns | Kick return yards | 19 | #153/200 | 24th pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Returns | Punt returns | 13 | #5/29 | 86th pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Returns | Punt return avg | 10.6 | #12/27 | 59th pct | Efficiencyvs FBS RB |
| Returns | Kick returns | 1 | #139/206 | 33rd pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Usage | Pass share | 16.0% | #3/738 | 100th pct | Air-game usagevs FBS RB |
| Usage | Passing-down usage | 11.6% | #142/738 | 81st pct | Known-passing sharevs FBS RB |
| Usage | 3rd-down usage | 9.3% | #224/738 | 70th pct | Money-down loadvs FBS RB |
| Usage | 2nd-down usage | 8.7% | #398/738 | 46th pct | Middle-down loadvs FBS RB |
| Usage | Rush share | 6.3% | #589/738 | 20th pct | Ground-game usagevs FBS RB |
| Usage | 1st-down usage | 6.2% | #493/738 | 33rd pct | Early-down loadvs FBS RB |
| Usage | Standard-down usage | 6.2% | #510/738 | 31st pct | Base-situation sharevs FBS RB |
| Ball Security | Fumbles lost | 0 | #1/256 | 100th pct | Turnoversvs FBS RB |
Player Standing
Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION
On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION · Rung None of 16
Why he’s here
Standing classification populates when honors, Heisman, and roster signals all align.
What moves him up
What moves him down
Accolade streams
Status—Awaiting tracker
Heisman model tracks the top FBS contenders weekly; this player hasn't entered the watch list yet.
Splits
Per-game splits
Splits fill in once box scores from at least three games land for this season.
Advanced Savant · RB · 2021
Percentile Card
Advanced opponent-adjusted percentile bars are coming soon for this player.
P4G5All FBS
Advanced Savant
Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.
Advanced opponent-adjusted metrics are coming soon for this player. Selected cohort: P4.
Supporting Cast · Scheme
Staff and system around the player
Head Coach
Brian Newberry
Pass share
22.5%
182 pass / 626 run
Plays / game
62.2
13 games
OL sack rate (allowed)
7.2%
138 dropbacks · PBP
Scheme: Run-heavy.
Coaching Lineage · 2020–2021
1 coach2020
Ken Niumatalolo
Navy
2021
Ken Niumatalolo
Navy
Played his entire career under Ken Niumatalolo.
Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster
Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.
HometownEnterprise, AL
Height5'10"
Weight190 lb
Class4
PositionRB
No fields populated yet.
No fields populated yet.
Current teamNavy
ConferenceAmerican Athletic
Joined2021
Career arc2 season(s)
Trophy Case · Detail
Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.
No formal honors on the ledger yet
All-America, all-conference, player-of-the-week, watch-list, and postseason awards land here when they're earned. The absence is the signal: most players never collect formal honors, and that's its own kind of context.
Honors Timeline
Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.
| Season | Honor | Scope | Team / Selector | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No formal honors on the ledger yet. All-America, all-conference, weekly awards, watch lists, and postseason trophies land here when they’re earned. | ||||
Heisman By Year
Modeled rank and official finish by season.
Roster Timeline
Team, conference, and class by season.