Justin Herbert: QB · Oregon · #10.
Closest statistical matches, adjusted for opponent strength.
Justin Herbert
Picks you apart underneath and protects the ball. Played for three head coaches in four seasons at Oregon. First career honor, 2019: Campbell. A game that shows it: 333 passing yards and 4 passing TD against Arizona — Week 12, 2019.
Play style
High-percentage passer who protects the ball. Loses the matchup on improvisation.
Checkdown vs gunslinger · 3rd-and-long
Where the completions actually land
58.7% completion on 3rd-and-8+, but only 29.4% conversion-per-dropback — 44.4% of completions land short of the sticks.
Where completions land is fact — whether incompletions were aimed deep is intent, not recorded here, so this card counts completions only. checkdown by design
Short-yardage / goal-line · enumeration
Who gets the tough yard
3 of the team's 33 inside-the-5 carries (9.1%).
No outlet on our list has written about this player by name this season.
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Game log · Week-by-week
2019 season · 14 games
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| Wk | Opp | CMP/ATT | YDS | TD | INT | YPA | QBR | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | L 21-27vs No. 16 Auburn | 28/37 | 242 | 1 | 0 | 6.5 | 43.4 | |
| Wk 2 | W 77-6vs Nevada | 19/26 | 310 | 5 | 0 | 11.9 | 94.2 | 5 TD passes |
| Wk 3 | W 35-3vs Montana | 30/42 | 316 | 5 | 0 | 7.5 | 91.4 | 5 TD passes |
| Wk 4 | W 21-6@ Stanford | 19/24 | 259 | 3 | 0 | 10.8 | 78.5 | 3 TD passes |
| Wk 6 | W 17-7vs California | 20/33 | 214 | 1 | 1 | 6.5 | 49.9 | |
| Wk 7 | W 45-3vs Colorado | 18/32 | 261 | 2 | 0 | 8.2 | 74.3 | Clean 2-TD game |
| Wk 8 | W 35-31@ No. 25 Washington | 24/38 | 280 | 4 | 0 | 7.4 | 80.7 | 4 TD passes |
| Wk 9 | W 37-35vs Washington State | 21/30 | 222 | 0 | 0 | 7.4 | 62.6 | |
| Wk 10 | W 56-24@ USC | 21/26 | 225 | 3 | 1 | 8.7 | — | 3 TD passes |
| Wk 12 | W 34-6vs Arizona | 20/28 | 333 | 4 | 1 | 11.9 | — | Season-high 333 yds |
| Wk 13 | L 28-31@ Arizona State | 20/36 | 304 | 2 | 2 | 8.4 | — | |
| Wk 14 | W 24-10vs Oregon State | 18/30 | 174 | 1 | 0 | 5.8 | — | |
| Wk 15 | W 37-15vs No. 5 Utah | 14/26 | 193 | 1 | 0 | 7.4 | — | |
 Bowl | W 28-27vs No. 11 Wisconsin | 14/20 | 138 | 0 | 1 | 6.9 | — | |
| Total | 286/428 | 3471 | 32 | 6 | 8.1 | — |
Week 8 · 2019
W 35-31
at Washington
280 yds · 4 TD · 0 INT · QBR 80.7
Edged out Washington on the road in a shootout.
With B. Maimone — 41 yards per punt · 5 punts · 52 long · T. Dye — 51 rush yds (8 car)
The plays that mattered most
Pass Profile · Completions by yards gained (PBP)
Adjusted ANY/A, sack rate, and where the yards came from
Adjusted ANY/A
8.1232 of 205 QBsSack rate
5.3%76 of 205 QBsRarely sacked (76 of 205 QBs) and still 32 of 205 in Adjusted ANY/A.
Adjusted ANY/A uses full-season box-score totals (attempts, yards, TDs, INTs); sack rate is play-by-play-derived.
Short
0–9 ydsMiddle
10–19 ydsDeep
20+ ydsOverall 66.8% completion on 428 attempts · 47 deep completions averaging 30.5 yds.
Is he a different quarterback when it matters
Each situation vs his own 2019 baseline
No situation moves him more than 30 percentile points from his baseline.
Deltas are vs. this player’s own season baseline, never a league average. League sack rate by down is shown as context because sack attribution isn’t incompletion-denominated.
Splits · Per-game
2019 season · 14 games
Home vs Road
| YDS/g | TD/g | YPA | INT/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home7g | 261 | 2.6 | 8.5 | 0.3 |
| Road4g | 267 | 3.0 | 8.8 | 0.8 |
First half vs Second half
| YDS/g | TD/g | YPA | INT/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks 1-77g | 249 | 2.4 | 8.3 | 0.3 |
| Weeks 8+7g | 247 | 2.1 | 8.1 | 0.6 |
Supporting cast · Scheme
Staff and system around the player
Head Coach
Mario Cristobal
Pass share
47.2%
444 pass / 497 run
Plays / game
67.2
14 games
Scheme: Balanced.
Player standing · 2019
Our Heisman model had this player inside its top 25 in 2019.
Career, closed
Gone at #6 overall.
How it ended
Four seasons at Oregon, 10,541 passing yards — drafted at #6 overall by the Los Angeles Chargers.
A stat line in 43 games over four seasons.
Trophy case · Confirmed honors
What the selectors said
National awards
Campbell
2019 season
Coaching lineage · 2016–2019
3 coachesPlayed under 3 different head coaches: Mark Helfrich, Willie Taggart, and Mario Cristobal. Multi-era developmental context.
Next stop · NFL
Los Angeles ChargersEntering 7th NFL season
Los Angeles ChargersEntering 7th NFL season
