Tyler Rogers

#17 · QB · New Mexico State6′3″ · 218 lb · Peoria, AZ

Tyler Rogers: QB · New Mexico State · #17.

Similar players

Closest statistical matches, adjusted for opponent strength.

Brogan RobackEastern Michigan · 2015 · 90% season match
Sam B. RichardsonIowa State · 2015 · 84% season match
Chris LavianoRutgers · 2015 · 78% season match
Brian LewerkeMichigan State · 2018 · 77% season match
Brandon SilversTroy · 2016 · 74% season match

Tyler Rogers

QB · New Mexico State · #17

Operates within the system without forcing anything. Arrived as a two-star recruit; four seasons of production at New Mexico State since. One game to point at: 474 passing yards and 33 rushing yards against Texas State — Week 10, 2017.

Style of play

Play style

Balanced passer who operates within the system, without one standout number carrying the profile.

Checkdown vs gunslinger · 3rd-and-long

Where the completions actually land

64.1%Completion %

31.4%Conversion/dropback

46.3%Land short of sticks

2INTs

64.1% completion on 3rd-and-8+, but only 31.4% conversion-per-dropback — 46.3% of completions land short of the sticks.

Where completions land is fact — whether incompletions were aimed deep is intent, not recorded here, so this card counts completions only. checkdown by design

Short-yardage / goal-line · enumeration

Who gets the tough yard

8/19Inside-5 share

8 of the team's 19 inside-the-5 carries (42.1%).

Fans

No outlet on our list has written about this player by name this season.

Where to follow

Career stats

Swipe the table sideways for more columns.

Season	Team
2017	New Mexico State	348	566	61.5%	4,016	7.1	27	18	130.5	39
2016	New Mexico State	224	402	55.7%	2,589	6.4	16	12	117.0	15
2015	New Mexico State	72	135	53.3%	974	7.2	7	3	126.6	45
2014	New Mexico State	268	436	61.5%	2,779	6.4	19	23	118.8	50
Career		912	1,539	59.3%	10,358	6.7	69	56	123.3	37

Season	Team
2017	New Mexico State	76	20	0.3	7	13
2016	New Mexico State	124	347	2.8	4	40
2015	New Mexico State	29	66	2.3	1	40
2014	New Mexico State	69	200	2.9	2	27
Career		298	633	2.1	14	40

Game log

Game log · Week-by-week

2017 season · 12 games

Box score · CFBD

Swipe the table sideways for more columns.

Wk	Opp	CMP/ATT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA	QBR	Note
Wk 1	L 31-37@ Arizona State	40/57	398	3	2	7.0	54.9	3 TD passes
Wk 2	W 30-28@ New Mexico	34/57	401	4	1	7.0	74.1	4 TD passes
Wk 3	L 24-27vs Troy	32/45	331	3	0	7.4	84.5	3 TD passes
Wk 4	W 41-14vs UTEP	26/43	283	2	1	6.6	51.9
Wk 5	L 24-42@ Arkansas	23/38	344	2	1	9.1	60.8
Wk 6	L 31-45@ App State	27/50	356	2	6	7.1	20.2	6 INTs — rough day
Wk 7	W 35-27@ Georgia Southern	31/51	382	3	2	7.5	60.0	3 TD passes
Wk 9	L 21-37vs Arkansas State	20/40	221	1	2	5.5	16.3
Wk 10	W 45-35@ Texas State	29/46	474	3	0	10.3	84.4	Season-high 474 yds
Wk 12	L 34-47@ Louisiana	17/24	184	1	0	7.7	63.3
Wk 14	W 22-17vs South Alabama	40/61	451	2	1	7.4	55.4
Bowl	W 26-20vs Utah State	29/54	191	1	2	3.5	16.0
Total		348/566	4016	27	18	7.1	—

Signature game

Week 3 · 2017

L 24-27

vs Troy

331 yds · 3 TD · 0 INT · QBR 84.5

With P. Theisler — 40.8 yards per punt · 6 punts · 52 long · I. Lottie — 4 rec · 93 yds · 2 TD

Signature plays

The plays that mattered most

Week 2 · New Mexico · 1st and 10 · Q1 · EPA +6.44Tyler Rogers pass complete to Izaiah Lottie for 81 yds for a TD (Dylan Brown KICK)
Week 6 · App State · 2nd and 9 · Q4 · EPA +5.84Tyler Rogers pass complete to Jason Huntley for 61 yds for a TD, (Dylan Brown KICK)
Week 3 · Troy · 3rd and 11 · Q3 · EPA +5.75Tyler Rogers pass complete to Izaiah Lottie for 46 yds for a TD, (Dylan Brown PAT MISSED)
Week 7 · Georgia Southern · 1st and 10 · Q1 · EPA +4.66Tyler Rogers pass complete to Gregory Hogan for 59 yds for a TD, (Dylan Brown KICK)
Week 5 · Arkansas · 1st and 10 · Q1 · EPA −4.44Tyler Rogers pass intercepted, touchback. Kevin Richardson II return for no gain
Week 6 · App State · 1st and 10 · Q1 · EPA −4.24Tyler Rogers pass intercepted Tae Hayes return for 52 yds to the NMxSt 0 NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, personal foul (Jason Huntley) to the NMxSt 13

4 more plays

Week 1 · Utah State · 1st and 10 · Q1 · EPA −4.21Tyler Rogers pass intercepted David Woodward return for 27 yds to the UthSt 0 UTAH ST Penalty, Illegal Block (10 Yards) to the UthSt 19
Week 14 · South Alabama · 3rd and 5 · Q3 · EPA −4.19Tyler Rogers pass intercepted, touchback. Tobias Moss return for no gain
Week 10 · Texas State · 3rd and 6 · Q4 · EPA +3.98Tyler Rogers pass complete to Anthony Muse for 40 yds to the TexSt 29 for a
Week 10 · Texas State · 1st and 10 · Q4 · EPA +3.88Tyler Rogers pass complete to Larry Rose III for 68 yds to the TexSt 7 for a

Passing profile

Pass Profile · Completions by yards gained (PBP)

Adjusted ANY/A, sack rate, and where the yards came from

348/566 (61.5%) · 27 TD · 18 INT

551 of 566 attempts matched to play-by-play

Totals here are the box score's. Play-by-play lists 551 passing plays (335 completions) against the box score's 566 attempts (348 completions), and the depth buckets use play-by-play.

Adjusted ANY/A

6.01107 of 205 QBs

Sack rate

4.9%70 of 205 QBs

Rarely sacked (70 of 205), but Adjusted ANY/A hasn't followed (107 of 205).

Adjusted ANY/A uses full-season box-score totals (attempts, yards, TDs, INTs); sack rate is play-by-play-derived.

Short

0–9 yds

56%of completions

186 comp4.5 yds avg8 TD

Middle

10–19 yds

27%of completions

89 comp13.4 yds avg4 TD

Deep

20+ yds

18%of completions

60 comp30.9 yds avg9 TD

Overall 61.5% completion on 566 attempts · 60 deep completions averaging 30.9 yds.

Situational

Is he a different quarterback when it matters

Each situation vs his own 2017 baseline

+67

percentile points better on third down or later

BaselineThis situation

Down 1

-30 pct pts vs baseline · sacks 8/232 (3.4%) · league sack rate 5.0%

Down 2

-12 pct pts vs baseline · sacks 10/181 (5.5%) · league sack rate 5.1%

Down 3+

+67 pct pts vs baseline · sacks 8/136 (5.9%) · league sack rate 8.3%

Deltas are vs. this player’s own season baseline, never a league average. League sack rate by down is shown as context because sack attribution isn’t incompletion-denominated.

Teams and coaches

4 seasons under Doug Martin — 15-34 over that span.

2014New Mexico State2-10HC: Doug Martin · Balanced, fast tempo

2015New Mexico State3-9HC: Doug Martin · Balanced

2016New Mexico State3-9HC: Doug Martin · Balanced, fast tempo

2017New Mexico State7-6HC: Doug Martin · Pass-heavy, fast tempo

Our ratings

Show the ratings

Where this profile ranks vs the QB cohort

Box-score + play-by-play EPA percentiles · 2017 season

13 metrics · season cumulative

Elite: pass yards (96th percentile). Strength: fumbles lost (92nd percentile). Concern: interceptions (0th percentile).

Real play-by-play efficiency

Sack rate#63 / 187 · 67th pct

5.0%

Explosive rate#66 / 187 · 65th pct

10.9%

Success rate#84 / 187 · 55th pct

41.0%

EPA / dropback#95 / 187 · 49th pct

0.19

Interception rate#116 / 187 · 38th pct

3.1%

Box-score rates (8)

Pass yards#8 / 179 · 96th pct

4016

Fumbles lost#1 / 163 · 92nd pct

Pass TDs#17 / 179 · 90th pct

Rush TDs#27 / 179 · 84th pct

Completion %#64 / 179 · 64th pct

61.5%

Yards / att#94 / 179 · 46th pct

7.1

Rush yards#120 / 179 · 33rd pct

Interceptions#179 / 179 · 0th pct

Season trend

Last seasonThis season

EPA / dropback

13th → 49th percentile

Success rate

12th → 55th percentile

Explosive rate

34th → 65th percentile

Sack rate

39th → 67th percentile

Interception rate

28th → 38th percentile

Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps in 2017. Most bars are box-score rates; EPA / success-rate bars are computed from real play-by-play (offense only — no defensive EPA model exists yet).

Zeitgeist Passer Rating

2017 · our own passing-efficiency number, shown next to the 1979 formula it does not replace.

After 549 dropbacks

39Zeitgeist Passer Rating103rd of 142 FBS QBs

NCAA passer rating 130.5 78th of 142 FBS QBs

ZPR ranks this quarterback 25 places lower than passer rating does: the schedule adjustment debits the defenses faced.

Positive-play rate weight 24%

41.8%28th pct of FBS QBs

share of dropbacks that gained expected points · -0.7% schedule adj.

Yards per attempt weight 56%

6.5929th pct of FBS QBs

sacks excluded · -0.4 schedule adj.

Sack rate weight 21% (penalty)

4.7%72nd pct of FBS QBs

the input passer rating cannot see · -0.1% schedule adj.

Opponent-adjusted; garbage time excluded (31 of 580 dropbacks dropped). 50 = FBS average; the number is pulled toward 50 when the sample is thin. How ZPR is built.

Splits

Home and road splits, scheme and staff

Splits · Per-game

2017 season · 12 games

Home/Road · Season halves

Home vs Road

	YDS/g	TD/g	YPA	INT/g
Home4g	322	2.0	6.7	1.0
Road7g	363	2.6	8.0	1.7

First half vs Second half

	YDS/g	TD/g	YPA	INT/g
Weeks 1-78g	336	2.5	6.9	1.9
Weeks 8+4g	332	1.8	7.7	0.8

Supporting cast · Scheme

Staff and system around the player

2017 season

Head Coach

Doug Martin

Pass share

64.7%

640 pass / 349 run

Plays / game

76.1

13 games

Scheme: Pass-heavy, fast tempo.

Awards

Player standing · 2017

Impact starter

566 pass attempts and 76 carries in 12 games, more passes and runs a game than nearly every FBS quarterback who plays every week.

Roster2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex

Tyler Rogers

Similar players

Style of play

Fans

Where to follow

Career stats

Game log

Signature game

Signature plays

Passing profile

Situational

Teams and coaches

Our ratings

Splits

Awards

Impact starter

Four seasons at New Mexico State

Moves

2014 12 games