The Zeitgeist List · Rivalries

NIU-Toledo

Toledo36-17Northern Illinois
National Program II#46 of 138–Regional Program IV#115 of 138–
See both programs’ full 91-year Zeitgeist History, side by side →
2 players crossed straight to the rival since 2021 — the turncoat ledger →

Toledo leads the all-time series 36-17. They've met 53 times since 1967. Toledo has won the last 4.

Current season

Vegas win totals and transfer-portal swing right now, plus what fans are actually saying — not history, this year.

Toledo
Transfer portal
-1
portal net points (weighted) · raw ledger: -23
Northern Illinois
Transfer portal
-26
portal net points (weighted) · raw ledger: -49

Stature & the series, 1967–2025

Both programs’ standing over time, each line named at its end, with every meeting beneath — read down to see who was bigger and who won. (Stature is each program’s season-by-season standing on the Zeitgeist List, 1936–present — one score blending on-field performance, program achievement, and roster talent.)

program stature over timeToledoNorthern Illinoisevery meeting (bar height = margin; dark: Toledo won, gray: Northern Illinois won)198020002020

The identity war

Toledo has been the more pass-heavy program more often than not.

Across 23 seasons of real play-level data (2004–2026), Toledo led 17 and Northern Illinois led 6.

more passmore runToledoNorthern Illinois2004200620082010201220142016201820202022202420262009Toledo 18.0 ptsToledo won 20-192025Toledo 12.9 ptsToledo won 42-32004Toledo 10.3 ptsToledo won 31-17
Source team_season_stats (CFBD season totals) · pass rate = passAttempts ÷ (passAttempts + rushingAttempts)

Toledo once won 11 in a row. The biggest win was Toledo by 49 in 2007. The biggest crowd, 36,502, was in 2001.

The coaching duels

Tom Amstutz vs Joe Novak6-1
Jason Candle vs Thomas Hammock4-2
Dan Simrell vs Jerry Pettibone2-3
Jack Murphy vs Jerry Ippoliti3-1
Gary Pinkel vs Joe Novak4-0
Jason Candle vs Rod Carey2-2

The draft ledger

Every NFL Draft pick either program has produced since the modern era began, decade by decade.

Draft picks
32-25
Toledo leads
1st-rounders
2-2
Since
1967
First CFBD-carried draft class
ToledoNorthern Illinois
1960s3-1
1970s5-5
1980s2-4
1990s3-1
2000s6-7
2010s6-7
2020s7-0

Best picks, either side

1993Dan Williams Defensive End · Denver BroncosRd 1, pick 11#11 overall
2009Larry English Defensive End · San Diego ChargersRd 1, pick 16#16 overall
2024Quinyon Mitchell Cornerback · Philadelphia EaglesRd 1, pick 22#22 overall
2014Jimmie Ward Safety · San Francisco 49ersRd 1, pick 30#30 overall
2019Max Scharping Offensive Tackle · Houston TexansRd 2, pick 23#55 overall
2026Emmanuel McNeil-Warren Safety · Cleveland BrownsRd 2, pick 26#58 overall
1969John Spilis Wide Receiver · Green Bay PackersRd 3, pick 12#64 overall
2025Darius Alexander Defensive Tackle · New York GiantsRd 3, pick 1#65 overall

Recent meetings

Gate premium

Northern Illinois1.11×its own average home crowd

A modest gap over a small sample of games — real, but not a dramatic swing.

2025Toledo42-3
2024Toledo13-6
2023Toledo35-33Northern Illinois — decided by 2
2022Toledo52-32
2021Northern Illinois22-20Toledo — Toledo favored by 13.0
2020Toledo41-24
2019Northern Illinois31-28
2018Northern Illinois38-15
2017Toledo27-17
2016Toledo31-24
2015Northern Illinois32-27
2014Northern Illinois27-24Toledo — decided by 3
2013Northern Illinois35-17
2012Northern Illinois31-24

Every meeting since 2018, play by play

Each line is Toledo’s chance to win through that meeting. Toledo is 1-2 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter.

2025Toledo 42-3Toledo won 42-3 vs Northern Illinois. Chance to win started at 96%, low 91%, high better than 99%.
2024Toledo 13-6Toledo won 13-6 at Northern Illinois. Chance to win started at 34%, low 23%, high 99%.
2023Toledo 35-33Toledo won 35-33 vs Northern Illinois. Chance to win started at 79%, low 73%, high better than 99%.
2022Toledo 52-32Toledo won 52-32 at Northern Illinois. Chance to win started at 68%, low 67%, high better than 99%.
2021Northern Illinois 22-20Toledo lost 20-22 vs Northern Illinois. Chance to win started at 74%, low under 1%, high 83%.
2020Toledo 41-24Toledo won 41-24 at Northern Illinois. Chance to win started at 77%, low 45%, high 99%.
2019Northern Illinois 31-28Toledo lost 28-31 vs Northern Illinois. Chance to win started at 55%, low under 1%, high 69%.
2018Northern Illinois 38-15Toledo lost 15-38 at Northern Illinois. Chance to win started at 38%, low under 1%, high 61%.

Meetings with their own story page

2 meetings in our archive, 2015 to 2021.