Brian Newberry

Head coach · Navy
4th season · since 2023

At Navy28-18since 2023 · 2-6 this seasonHot seatCool10% · 38th of 132 jobsLast gameL 13-35vs Notre Dame · Oct 31Nextvs TempleSat Nov 7 · 3:30 pm ET · CBS Sports Network
This week · as of Wed Nov 4

2-6, lost 3 straight, on track for 4-8 in the regular season.

Now

Career arc

Stature score reached, by season of his head-coaching careerFBS medianNavyArmyArmyAir ForceAir ForceNational Programrespectable, streakyRegional Programthe building-block levelNavy when he took over: 23.9 (Regional Program I), its final 2022 readingtook overNavy, 2023: 5-7, Regional Program INavy, 2023: 5-7, Regional Program I20235-7Navy, 2024: 10-3, Regional Program I202410-3Navy, 2025: 11-2, National Program III202511-2Navy, 2026: 2-6, National Program IIINavy, 2026: 2-6, National Program III20262-6+3.8best: 2025gray dashed: rival programs · ○ the program when he took over · Dashed segments are program changes — spacing is not proportional to calendar time

Bowls and playoffs: 2-0

2024Armed Forces BowlW 21-202025Liberty BowlW 35-13

This week Wed Nov 4

  • Last gameL 13-35 vs. Notre Dame Sat Oct 31
  • This season2-6 lost 3 straight
  • Hot seat9.7% 38th of 132
  • On track for4-8 regular season
  • Nextvs. Temple Sat Nov 7
  • Stature72nd of 138 FBS programs

Win and he’s at 8%. Lose and he’s at 13%.

vs. Temple, Sat Nov 7, 3:30 pm ET CBS Sports Network · Temple is 2-6 · Newberry vs. K.C. Keeler: 1-0 · Navy’s chance to win: 71% (the site’s model)

CoolWarmHotBoilingIf Navy wins: 8%, 42nd of 132Now: 9.7%If Navy loses: 13%, 30th of 1320%50%+
CoolWarmHotBoiling0%50%+
  • If Navy wins: 8%, 42nd of 132
  • Now: 9.7%
  • If Navy loses: 13%, 30th of 132
His chance of being out after the season, now and after Saturday. Each tick is an FBS head coach’s number today; ranks are against today’s field. From the site’s hot-seat model.

Is he getting fired?

9.7% chance he’s out after the season · 38th of 132 FBS head coaches · Cool

Coolunder 10%Warm10–20%Hot20–35%Boiling35% upNow6% had they won6% had they wonLoss 13%Win 8%2%3%5%8%9%7%7%9%10%Pre1W vs. TowsonW2L at Florida AtlanticL3L at UABL4L at Air ForceL5W vs. TulsaW6L at UTSAL7L vs. North TexasL8L vs. Notre DameL9Chance to win vs. Temple71%10Chance to win vs. Memphis36%11Chance to win at Charlotte82%12Chance to win vs. Army40%Game number. Under each game: the result, or his team’s chance to win it
CoolWarmHotBoilingNow6% had they wonLoss 13%Win 8%2%10%Pre368912Game
Dark line: his number after each game; a small dot just before a game is where it stood at kickoff, after other results moved it. Gray: where it could go, 8 seasons in 10 (darker, the middle half). The hollow dot: had his last game gone the other way. From the site’s hot-seat model.

If he finishes…

Bar: how likely that finish isNumber: his chance of being out

  1. 2-1024%
  2. 3-914%
  3. 4-89%
  4. 5-75%
  5. 6-63%
Why his number is where it is

Our hot-seat model, on his record so far, the win chances for every game he has left, and his contract (a bigger buyout, relative to pay, makes a change costlier). Ranked against the 132 FBS head coaches with 3+ games this season.

All three of his finished seasons here ended Cool. Now right where 2025 was at this point.

His hot seat, week by week

The chance he’s out by the end of that season, as it stood after every week of his tenure here, by today’s model.

BoilingHotWarmCool20232024202520262023, week 3 (3 games in): 4%, 74th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2023, week 4 (3 games in): 4%, 73rd-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 5 (4 games in): 4%, 67th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 6 (5 games in): 3%, 76th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 7 (6 games in): 2%, 84th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 8 (7 games in): 3%, 76th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 9 (7 games in): 3%, 76th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 10 (8 games in): 3%, 70th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 11 (9 games in): 2%, 79th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 12 (10 games in): 2%, 78th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 13 (11 games in): 2%, 77th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 14 (11 games in): 2%, 77th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 15 (12 games in): 2%, 73rd-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2024, week 4 (3 games in): 5%, 69th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 5 (4 games in): 3%, 78th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 6 (5 games in): 2%, 87th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 7 (5 games in): 2%, 85th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 8 (6 games in): 2%, 88th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 9 (7 games in): 2%, 80th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 10 (8 games in): 2%, 73rd-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 11 (9 games in): 2%, 80th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 12 (10 games in): 2%, 80th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 13 (10 games in): 2%, 74th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 14 (11 games in): 1%, 82nd-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 15 (11 games in): 1%, 82nd-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 16 (12 games in): 1%, 87th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2025, week 3 (3 games in): 3%, 65th-hottest of 118 FBS jobs2025, week 4 (3 games in): 3%, 74th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 5 (4 games in): 3%, 75th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 6 (5 games in): 3%, 74th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 7 (6 games in): 2%, 84th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 8 (6 games in): 2%, 86th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 9 (7 games in): 1%, 90th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 10 (8 games in): 2%, 83rd-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 11 (9 games in): 1%, 85th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 12 (10 games in): 1%, 97th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 13 (10 games in): 1%, 91st-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 14 (11 games in): <1%, 104th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 15 (11 games in): <1%, 104th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 16 (12 games in): <1%, 117th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2026, week 4 (3 games in): 7%, 55th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 5 (4 games in): 9%, 46th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 6 (5 games in): 7%, 51st-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 7 (6 games in): 7%, 52nd-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 8 (7 games in): 9%, 43rd-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 9 (8 games in): 9.8%, 42nd-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 10 (8 games in): 9.7%, 38th-hottest of 132 FBS jobsnow

Earlier seasons price the games left with power ratings rebuilt after those seasons ended.

What drives his number

The biggest factors, each against the typical FBS job today.

  • ▲ Hotter
    2-6, outscored by 18
  • ▼ Cooler
    21-5 over his previous two seasons here
  • ▲ Hotter
    Year 4 · tenure, which this model overrates
    (why?)

    Tenure is one of this model’s strongest inputs, but its weight was set when retirements like Nick Saban’s and Bob Stoops’ still counted as being pushed out, so it overstates how much tenure matters.

What happened to coaches like him, 2004–2025

A different comparison: past coaches, not today’s, grouped by one fact at a time. Neither line knows the games he has left or his contract, so they can sit above or below his chance.

Were 2-6 after 8 games
16% pushed out over results · of 288 coaches
Were in years 3-4, after 8 games
13% pushed out over results · of 754 coaches
The outcome
Pushed out over results — a firing, forced resignation, mutual parting or non-renewal, each read case by case. Leaving for a better job, or retiring on his own terms, doesn’t count.
Buyout
No figure on file for this coach. The salary database predates the last coaching carousel; a name mismatch is suppressed rather than misattributed.

How good is this number? Checked on every FBS coach from 2010 to 2025, with its percentages calibrated each season on earlier years only: they track what happened — coaches it put near 25% were out about a quarter of the time — and a version pricing the games left with the previous season’s ratings ranked jobs as well as the ranking this page used before. Each week it learns from coaches who were still on the job at that point, so a firing during the season counts. In the Boiling zone it has run a few points high. Every job, and the method.

One headline named him in the last 7 days

85th of 138 FBS head coaches

The headlines, Nov 1–4

What they are talking about, week and season

Offense: 48th of 138 per play. Defense: 102nd.

Offense, per play48thPassing offense11thDefense, per play102ndDefense, big plays allowed131stWorstBest
Offense, per play48th of 138Passing offense11th of 138Defense, per play102nd of 138Defense, big plays allowed131st of 138WorstBest
Through 8 games. Each tick is an FBS team, adjusted for opponent strength (CFB Zeitgeist model); the dot is Navy. The other two rows are where Navy stands furthest from the middle. Early-season numbers move a lot.

4 games left

  1. Sat Nov 7vs. Temple (2-6)CBS Sports Network71%
  2. Sat Nov 21vs. Memphis (7-2)36%
  3. Sat Nov 28at Charlotte (1-7)82%
  4. Sat Dec 12vs. Army (5-3)CBS40%

Percent: Navy’s chance to win, from the site’s model. Records are through today. Networks as announced; the rest are set closer to kickoff.

How the season got here

Where Navy stood among 138 FBS programs by stature after each game (1st is the highest; the CFB Zeitgeist ledger).

64th70th76thPreseason70thTowson W 42-15Towson W 42-15W 42-15Towson70thFlorida Atlantic L 30-38Florida Atlantic L 30-38L 30-38Florida Atlan…71stUAB L 20-24UAB L 20-24L 20-24UAB71stAir Force L 9-14Air Force L 9-14L 9-14Air Force71stTulsa W 34-26Tulsa W 34-26W 34-26Tulsa72ndUTSA L 34-38UTSA L 34-38L 34-38UTSA71stNorth Texas L 39-49North Texas L 39-49L 39-49North Texas69thNotre Dame L 13-35Notre Dame L 13-35L 13-35Notre Dame72nd
  1. Oct 26–Nov 1L 13-35 vs. Notre Dame1 headline · 87th of 138
  2. Oct 19–25L 39-49 vs. North Texas0 headlines
  3. Oct 12–18L 34-38 at UTSA0 headlines
  4. Oct 5–11W 34-26 vs. Tulsa0 headlines
  5. Sep 28–Oct 4L 9-14 at Air Force1 headline · 82nd of 138
  6. Sep 21–27 · rebuiltL 20-24 at UAB0 headlines

Each week as this page showed it at the time. Weeks marked rebuilt came before this page existed: they were built afterward from only what was known by the end of that week.

Watch the biggest plays from Navy’s games, ranked by how much each moved the chance to win.

Report card

Above the median on both sides of the ball — 59th percentile offense, 51st percentile defense.

Navy, every completed season graded against the whole field, then averaged.

Offense

B-
of which —59th
efficiency — 59th percentile success rate, 2023–25
B69th
Standard-downs success
C-37th
Passing-downs success
B64th
Trench push (line yards)
C-38th
Red-zone scoring rate
B67th
Power-success (short yardage)
B+73rd
Ball security (giveaways per game)

Defense

B-
of which —51st
51st percentile SP+ defense, 2023–25
B+70th
Front-7 havoc
B61st
Secondary havoc
C42nd
Stuff rate (run defense)
B+71st
Takeaways per game

Each season is his team’s percentile among every team with that stat (the share it beat), averaged over his completed seasons here; a mid-season takeover year and the season in progress aren’t graded. Letters: A+ 90th percentile and up, A 80, B+ 70, B 60, B− 50, C+ 45, C 40, C− 30, D 15, F below.

Poach watch

This winter

9.5%chance he leaves this winter for a head-coaching job elsewhere, or an NFL coordinator jobSettled18th-highest of 132 FBS head coaches
0%50%+

Our poach model, on his record so far, the win chances for every game he has left, his program, his pay and his background. Ranked against the 132 FBS head coaches this season. The zone words describe the market’s interest; none of them says he is leaving.

What drives his number

The biggest factors in his profile, each against the typical FBS head coach today. The games he has left are priced into the number, not listed here.

  • ▲ Higher
    His 4th season at Navy
  • ▲ Higher
    His age is not on file · neither at his alma mater nor in the state he was born in
  • ▲ Higher
    21-5 over his previous two seasons here
How good is this number? It ranks a head coach who leaves for another head-coaching job ahead of one who stays 78 to 82% of the time, and its average came within a point of the share who actually left. What it can’t do

Tested on every FBS head coach from 2012 through 2025, each season scored by a model fit only on the seasons before it. From three games on, given one coach who left for a head-coaching job elsewhere or an NFL coordinator job and one who stayed, it ranked the one who left ahead 79 to 82% of the time; in a season’s first two games, 78%. Its average chance came within a point of the share who actually left. It counts a move a coach makes while he still holds the job; when his school ends it, that doesn’t count, even if another school then hires him.

  • The live number prices the games he has left with the power model’s ratings from this season. The test priced them with each team’s rating from the season before, because ratings made during past seasons were not kept, so this live version could not be replayed.
  • Programs new to FBS have no FBS record before this season in the data it reads, so their coaches are scored without one.
  • It is frozen: it learns nothing from 2026 until a deliberate refit.
  • A coach hired in December needs his background (age, alma mater, the state he was born in) added before his first game, or he shows as not rated.