1-7, on track for 1-11 in the regular season.
Now
Career arc
Bowls and playoffs: 1-0
2022Bahamas BowlW 24-20
This week Wed Nov 4
- Last gameL 21-35 vs. Southern Miss Sat Oct 31
- This season1-7
- Hot seat53% 1st of 132
- On track for1-11 regular season
- Nextat Arkansas State Sat Nov 7
- Stature137th of 138 FBS programs
Win and he’s at 46%. Lose and he’s at 51%.
at Arkansas State, Sat Nov 7, 3 pm ET 
· Arkansas State is 4-4 · Vincent vs. Butch Jones: 1-1 · UL Monroe’s chance to win: 14% (the site’s model)
- If UL Monroe wins: 46%, 5th of 132
- Now: 53%
- If UL Monroe loses: 51%, 3rd of 132
Is he getting fired?
53% chance he’s out after the season · 1st of 132 FBS head coaches · Boiling
If he finishes…
Bar: how likely that finish isNumber: his chance of being out
- 1-1150%
- 2-1045%
- 3-938%
Why his number is where it is
Our hot-seat model, on his record so far, the win chances for every game he has left, and his contract (a bigger buyout, relative to pay, makes a change costlier). Ranked against the 132 FBS head coaches with 3+ games this season.
Now hotter than at this point in any of his two finished seasons here.
His hot seat, week by week
The chance he’s out by the end of that season, as it stood after every week of his tenure here, by today’s model.
Hottest: 2026, week 4 (59%, Hottest of 137 FBS jobs that week). Top factor: ▲ Hotter 0-4, outscored by 86
Earlier seasons price the games left with power ratings rebuilt after those seasons ended.
What drives his number
The biggest factors, each against the typical FBS job today.
- ▲ Hotter1-7, outscored by 134
- ▲ Hotter$1.2M buyout · 1.7× his pay, a multiple among the smallest in FBS — cheap to move on
- ▲ Hotter8-16 over his previous two seasons here
What happened to coaches like him, 2004–2025
A different comparison: past coaches, not today’s, grouped by one fact at a time. Neither line knows the games he has left or his contract, so they can sit above or below his chance.
- Were 1-7 after 8 games
- 21% pushed out over results · of 159 coaches
- Were in years 3-4, after 8 games
- 13% pushed out over results · of 754 coaches
How good is this number? Checked on every FBS coach from 2010 to 2025, with its percentages calibrated each season on earlier years only: they track what happened — coaches it put near 25% were out about a quarter of the time — and a version pricing the games left with the previous season’s ratings ranked jobs as well as the ranking this page used before. Each week it learns from coaches who were still on the job at that point, so a firing during the season counts. In the Boiling zone it has run a few points high. Every job, and the method.
Offense: 132nd of 138 per play. Defense: 115th.
4 games left
- Sat Nov 7at Arkansas State (4-4)14%
- Thu Nov 12vs. Louisiana (5-3)
4% - Sat Nov 21at App State (5-3)15%
- Sat Nov 28vs. Marshall (5-3)17%
Percent: UL Monroe’s chance to win, from the site’s model. Records are through today. Networks as announced; the rest are set closer to kickoff.
How the season got here
Where UL Monroe stood among 138 FBS programs by stature after each game (1st is the highest; the CFB Zeitgeist ledger).
- Oct 26–Nov 1L 21-35 vs. Southern Miss0 headlines
- Oct 19–25W 21-14 at Troy0 headlines
- Oct 12–18L 0-24 vs. Louisiana Tech0 headlines
- Oct 5–11No game0 headlines
- Sep 28–Oct 4L 35-52 at South Alabama0 headlines
- Sep 21–27 · rebuiltL 17-45 vs. Florida Atlantic0 headlines
Each week as this page showed it at the time. Weeks marked rebuilt came before this page existed: they were built afterward from only what was known by the end of that week.
Watch the biggest plays from UL Monroe’s games, ranked by how much each moved the chance to win.
Fans
No fan talk about him on our list yet. His record is on Career.
Stats
Big games
Pick a job to see its years on their own.
The big-game ledger
How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.
Signature games
Tags describe each game; they aren’t scores. The weighting that picks these games is still being tested.
The big-game ledger
How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.
1-3 against his rivals at UL Monroe. Winless in 3 tries against Major Applewhite.
Signature games
Tags describe each game; they aren’t scores. The weighting that picks these games is still being tested.
The big-game ledger
How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.
1-3 against his rivals. Winless in 3 tries against Major Applewhite.
Signature games
Tags describe each game; they aren’t scores. The weighting that picks these games is still being tested.
ATS is his record against the spread: did his team beat the closing betting line, winning by more than it or losing by less? Lines start in 2013; a dash means fewer than 6 of those games had one. One-score games carry no spread record: a big favorite that wins a close game has almost always failed to cover, so that number would say nothing about the coach.
How he plays
Run/pass mix, by field position
Called about what the situation called for.
1,401 run and pass snaps at UL Monroe, 2024–2025, his own games, one row per offensive coordinator. Each cell is how much more often he passed than the rest of FBS did in the same situation (field zone, down, distance, score, quarter, same season), in percentage points.
Pass rate, stint by stint
Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next, against the FBS-wide average of 41% pass. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.
Season-to-season pass-rate range for all 449 FBS coaching stints with at least three covered seasons, 2004–2025.
Building the roster
Four numbers on how he actually stocks a roster, from signing day to draft day.
His recruiting, really
His 3 ranked UL Monroe classes of his own have averaged #119 nationally — best #114, worst #127.
UAB
UL MonroeAcross every program: 3 ranked classes of his own, averaging #119 nationally.
His class — he had the full signing cycleInherited — signed before he arrived
Rank is each signing class’s national recruiting rank (#1 is best). Only a class he had a full signing cycle to build counts as his; inherited and mid-transition classes still show here, faded, but stay out of the average.
Roster ownership
Roster ownership
of his 2026 roster arrived on his watch — 99 of 107 players. The other 8 are holdovers from before he was hired.
Of his own players on this roster, 15% came through the transfer portal; the rest are non-portal arrivals (high-school signees, JUCO transfers, walk-ons).
17% of his 173 new players since 2024 came through the portal (FBS programs, same seasons: 29%) — well below the FBS rate. His share was 14% in 2024 and 13% in 2026.
Graded on the players who arrived and the players who left together, his portal seasons came out better than most FBS programs’ in 1 of the 3 seasons graded. our read
Each player counts once, in the season he arrived. 2021, the first season of portal tracking here, is left off because its arrival records look incomplete (about 31 new players per FBS team, against 52 in 2022). Portal grade: the site’s position-value-weighted scoring (the same engine as the Portal Heat feed and the “Who won the portal” grade): the value of the players who came in minus the value of the ones who left, ranked against every FBS program’s grade that same season. A season with fewer than 4 transfers in and out is not graded.
“His own” means the player arrived while he was head coach; “inherited” means a predecessor brought him in.
Size up front
Size up front
Offensive linemen on his UL Monroe rosters have averaged within a few pounds of the FBS average (2024–2026). In the three seasons before he arrived, UL Monroe’s line averaged within a few pounds of the FBS average.
Average listed weight of every offensive lineman on each season’s roster, holdovers included, against every FBS roster that season (2010 on; a program needs 3+ seasons under him to appear). Weights are the ones programs publish, and programs list differently. This describes size only — not scheme, and not quality.
Where he recruits
is his biggest recruiting state: 29 of 78 signees (37%) across his 2024–2026 tenure, drawn from 17 states in all. Next: AL (13).
63% of his signees come from MS and its 4 border states (AL 13, LA 4, AR 2, TN 1).
Off this map: 4 signees to the east (FL, PA, others), 1 to the west (UT) and 1 to the north (MN).
- median hometown distance
- 288 mi
- within 100 mi
- 17%
- within 500 mi
- 66%
- beyond 1,000 mi
- 8%
The map counts signed recruits across his tenure; the distance figures cover his current roster, transfers and walk-ons included. Two different groups, kept separate on purpose.
News
No headlines named him in the last 7 days
In his own words
Awaiting signal — no quotes collected from this staff yet this cycle.
Career
Hires into jobs like this
Hired into programs rated 3 to 3 (Regional Program VI tier). Rough match, not calibrated yet — ranked on what the job inherited alone. Coaches hired into this same job aren’t used as comps.
- Terry Bowden20214–8+0.2
- Matt Viator20164–8-1.4
- Todd Berry20105–7-0.5
- Charlie Weatherbie20031–11-0.9
- Mike Collins20023–6-0.3
- Bobby Keasler19995–6-1.4
- Pat Collins19815–6+2.3
- John David Crow19762–9-4.1
Coaching career
The arc of his career is on Now.
Steady no large move in either direction on our stature ladder
11th-best UL Monroe tenure of 11 by the numbers.
Followed Terry Bowden (2021–2023).
| Season | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record & result | ||||
| Record | 5-7 | 3-9 | 1-7 | |
| Postseason | — | — | — | |
| Coordinators | ||||
| OC | — | — | Jesse Montalto | |
| DC | Earnest Hill | Earnest Hill | Troy Reffett | |
| Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile | ||||
| Offense | 30 | 18 | 5 | |
| Defense | 32 | 44 | 15 | |
| Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script | ||||
| 1st-down pass% | 33.2 | 38.3 | 44.1 | |
| Red-zone pass% | 26.8 | 47.1 | 41.5 | |
| 4th-down go%opp. territory | 27.8 | 48.4 | 31.2 | |
Performs about as expected for his recruiting talent, on both sides of the ball.
Brings in smaller-than-position-typical players than most.
Recruits younger transfers than most — more of a development bet.
AI Narratives — “UL Monroe — stat check” and 4 more on the team page.
Followed Bill Clark (2014–2021) · succeeded by Trent Dilfer (2023–2025).
Outperforms his recruiting talent on offense and performs about as expected for his recruiting talent on defense.
Barely touches the portal — recruits and develops his own.
Brings in bigger-than-position-typical players than most.
Recruits older, more experienced transfers than most.
1 NFL Draft pick: DeWayne McBride (2023)
Was he good?
Every angle here comes back inconclusive — not enough separation from zero to call it either way.
+-0.0 pts at UL Monroe · #684 of 1290 · middle halfModel fit as of 2026-09-04.
Coordinator years
Offensive coordinator across 3 programs, 5 stints, before and after wearing the head-coach hat — every season measured on the same axis, whether he personally ran the unit or someone else did.
How to read this. Coordinator seasons come from our coordinator career records; head-coaching-era seasons are the same unit's FBS-relative percentile for those years, regardless of who coached it, read directly from the staff assignments record. A role change (a “hinge”) is a fact, never a performance verdict — only the season-by-season data itself is colored by outcome.