Clay Helton

Head coach · Georgia Southern
5th season · since 2022 · USC before

At school31-29since 2022 · 4-4 this seasonHot seatCool4% · 65th of 132 jobsLast gameW 19-3vs App State · Oct 31Nextvs MarshallSat Nov 7 · 3:30 pm ET
This week · as of Wed Nov 4

4-4, won 2 straight, on track for 6-6 in the regular season.

Now

Career arc

Stature score reached, by season of his head-coaching careerFBS medianUSCGeorgia SouthernNotre DameNotre DameGeorgia StateGeorgia StateBlue Bloodpermanent top tierPower Programperennial contenderNational Programrespectable, streakyRegional Programthe building-block levelUSC when he took over: 68.6 (Blue Blood), its final 2014 readingtook overUSC, 2015: 5-4, Blue BloodUSC, 2015: 5-4, Blue Blood20155-4USC, 2016: 10-3, Power Program I201610-3USC, 2017: 11-3, Power Program I201711-3USC, 2018: 5-7, Power Program I20185-7USC, 2019: 8-5, Power Program I20198-5USC, 2020: 5-1, Power Program IUSC, 2020: 5-1, Power Program I20205-1-4.2Georgia Southern when he took over: 16.6 (Regional Program III), its final 2021 readingtook overGeorgia Southern, 2022: 6-7, Regional Program IIIGeorgia Southern, 2022: 6-7, Regional Program III20226-7Georgia Southern, 2023: 6-7, Regional Program IV20236-7Georgia Southern, 2024: 8-5, Regional Program IV20248-5Georgia Southern, 2025: 7-6, Regional Program III20257-6Georgia Southern, 2026: 4-4, Regional Program IIIGeorgia Southern, 2026: 4-4, Regional Program III20264-4-1.3best: 2017gray dashed: rival programs · ○ the program when he took over · Dashed segments are program changes — spacing is not proportional to calendar time

Bowls and playoffs: 2-6

USC2015Holiday BowlL 21-232016Rose BowlW 52-492017Cotton Bowl ClassicL 7-242019Holiday BowlL 24-49Georgia Southern2022Camellia BowlL 21-232023Myrtle Beach BowlL 21-412024New Orleans BowlL 26-312025Birmingham BowlW 29-10

This week Wed Nov 4

  • Last gameW 19-3 vs. App State Sat Oct 31
  • This season4-4 won 2 straight
  • On track for6-6 regular season
  • Nextvs. Marshall Sat Nov 7
  • Stature100th of 138 FBS programs

What the result changed

  • Playoff odds <0.1% → 0.1% CFB Zeitgeist forecast, before and after

Saturday: vs. Marshall

Sat Nov 7, 3:30 pm ET ESPN+ · Marshall is 5-3 · Helton vs. Tony Gibson: 1-0 · Georgia Southern’s chance to win: 69% (the site’s model)

No headlines named him in the last 7 days

What they are talking about, week and season

Offense: 49th of 138 per play. Defense: 56th.

Offense, per play49thOffense, starting field position108thDefense, per play56thDefense, opponents' starting field position13thWorstBest
Offense, per play49th of 138Offense, starting field position108th of 138Defense, per play56th of 138Defense, opponents' starting field position13th of 138WorstBest
Through 8 games. Each tick is an FBS team, adjusted for opponent strength (CFB Zeitgeist model); the dot is Georgia Southern. The other two rows are where Georgia Southern stands furthest from the middle. Early-season numbers move a lot.

4 games left

  1. Sat Nov 7vs. Marshall (5-3)ESPN+69%
  2. Sat Nov 14at Georgia State (4-4)ESPN+69%
  3. Sat Nov 21at Troy (4-4)69%
  4. Sat Nov 28vs. Louisiana Tech (6-2)40%

Percent: Georgia Southern’s chance to win, from the site’s model. Records are through today. Networks as announced; the rest are set closer to kickoff.

How the season got here

Where Georgia Southern stood among 138 FBS programs by stature after each game (1st is the highest; the CFB Zeitgeist ledger).

94th100th106thPreseason99thCharleston Southern W 31-0Charleston Southern W 31-0W 31-0Charleston So…99thClemson L 7-22Clemson L 7-22L 7-22Clemson99thJacksonville State L 27-31Jacksonville State L 27-31L 27-31Jacksonville …101stHouston L 28-42Houston L 28-42L 28-42Houston101stCoastal Carolina W 31-24Coastal Carolina W 31-24W 31-24Coastal Carol…101stJames Madison L 24-27James Madison L 24-27L 24-27James Madison100thOld Dominion W 23-15Old Dominion W 23-15W 23-15Old Dominion99thApp State W 19-3App State W 19-3W 19-3App State100th
  1. Oct 26–Nov 1W 19-3 vs. App State0 headlines
  2. Oct 19–25No game1 headline · 81st of 138Inside Georgia Southern Football with Clay Helton ESPN
  3. Oct 12–18W 23-15 at Old Dominion0 headlines
  4. Oct 5–11L 24-27 vs. James Madison1 headline · 83rd of 138
  5. Sep 28–Oct 4W 31-24 at Coastal Carolina0 headlines
  6. Sep 21–27 · rebuiltL 28-42 vs. Houston0 headlines

Each week as this page showed it at the time. Weeks marked rebuilt came before this page existed: they were built afterward from only what was known by the end of that week.

Watch the biggest plays from Georgia Southern’s games, ranked by how much each moved the chance to win.

Report card

Offense carries it: 73rd percentile offense, bottom-quarter defense at 12th.

Georgia Southern, every completed season graded against the whole field, then averaged.

Offense

B+
of which —73rd
efficiency — 73rd percentile success rate, 2022–25
B66th
Standard-downs success
A85th
Passing-downs success
B-55th
Trench push (line yards)
B+75th
Red-zone scoring rate
B68th
Power-success (short yardage)
C-30th
Ball security (giveaways per game)

Defense

F
of which —12th
12th percentile SP+ defense, 2022–25
B66th
Front-7 havoc
A82nd
Secondary havoc
C40th
Stuff rate (run defense)
B-57th
Takeaways per game

Each season is his team’s percentile among every team with that stat (the share it beat), averaged over his completed seasons here; a mid-season takeover year and the season in progress aren’t graded. Letters: A+ 90th percentile and up, A 80, B+ 70, B 60, B− 50, C+ 45, C 40, C− 30, D 15, F below.

Hot seat

See every job →

This season

4%chance he’s out by the end of this seasonCool65th-hottest of 132 FBS jobs
0%50%+

Our hot-seat model, on his record so far, the win chances for every game he has left, and his contract (a bigger buyout, relative to pay, makes a change costlier). Ranked against the 132 FBS head coaches with 3+ games this season.

All four of his finished seasons here ended Cool. Now cooler than at this point in 2025.

How his seat has moved, and why

His hot seat, week by week

The chance he’s out by the end of that season, as it stood after every week of his tenure here, by today’s model.

BoilingHotWarmCool202220232024202520262022, week 3 (3 games in): 2%, 87th-hottest of 125 FBS jobs2022, week 4 (4 games in): 2%, 94th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 5 (5 games in): 2%, 93rd-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 6 (6 games in): 2%, 87th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 7 (7 games in): 2%, 91st-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 8 (8 games in): 1%, 99th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 9 (8 games in): 1%, 99th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 10 (9 games in): 1%, 94th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 11 (10 games in): 2%, 87th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 12 (11 games in): 2%, 86th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 13 (12 games in): 1%, 88th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 14 (12 games in): 1%, 88th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 15 (12 games in): 1%, 88th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2023, week 3 (3 games in): 6%, 60th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2023, week 4 (4 games in): 4%, 70th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 5 (5 games in): 4%, 69th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 6 (5 games in): 4%, 69th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 7 (6 games in): 5%, 68th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 8 (7 games in): 4%, 73rd-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 9 (8 games in): 3%, 75th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 10 (9 games in): 3%, 68th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 11 (10 games in): 4%, 64th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 12 (11 games in): 5%, 58th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 13 (12 games in): 5%, 56th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 14 (12 games in): 5%, 56th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 15 (12 games in): 5%, 56th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2024, week 3 (3 games in): 15%, 26th-hottest of 111 FBS jobs2024, week 4 (4 games in): 14%, 35th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 5 (5 games in): 10%, 46th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 6 (5 games in): 10%, 42nd-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 7 (6 games in): 7%, 53rd-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 8 (7 games in): 6%, 57th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 9 (8 games in): 6%, 53rd-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 10 (9 games in): 5%, 60th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 11 (9 games in): 5%, 58th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 12 (10 games in): 6%, 55th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 13 (11 games in): 4%, 60th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 14 (12 games in): 3%, 62nd-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 15 (12 games in): 3%, 62nd-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 16 (12 games in): 3%, 62nd-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2025, week 3 (3 games in): 8%, 46th-hottest of 118 FBS jobs2025, week 4 (4 games in): 8%, 56th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 5 (5 games in): 9%, 45th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 6 (5 games in): 9%, 44th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 7 (6 games in): 11%, 42nd-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 8 (7 games in): 9%, 44th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 9 (8 games in): 10%, 41st-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 10 (8 games in): 10%, 39th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 11 (9 games in): 8%, 49th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 12 (10 games in): 6%, 50th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 13 (11 games in): 7%, 48th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 14 (12 games in): 5%, 51st-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 15 (12 games in): 5%, 51st-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 16 (12 games in): 5%, 51st-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2026, week 3 (3 games in): 9%, 47th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2026, week 4 (4 games in): 9%, 46th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 5 (5 games in): 8%, 53rd-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 6 (6 games in): 7%, 54th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 7 (7 games in): 5%, 69th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 8 (7 games in): 4%, 67th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 9 (8 games in): 4%, 70th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 10 (8 games in): 4%, 65th-hottest of 132 FBS jobsnowEvery season ended Cool, 2022–2025

Earlier seasons price the games left with power ratings rebuilt after those seasons ended.

What drives his number

The biggest factors, each against the typical FBS job today.

  • ▲ Hotter
    Year 5 · tenure, which this model overrates
    (why?)

    Tenure is one of this model’s strongest inputs, but its weight was set when retirements like Nick Saban’s and Bob Stoops’ still counted as being pushed out, so it overstates how much tenure matters.

  • ▼ Cooler
    Regional Program program · the bar going in
  • ▲ Hotter
    4-4, outscoring opponents by 26

What happened to coaches like him, 2004–2025

A different comparison: past coaches, not today’s, grouped by one fact at a time. Neither line knows the games he has left or his contract, so they can sit above or below his chance.

Were 4-4 after 8 games
8% pushed out over results · of 504 coaches
Were in years 5-9, after 8 games
14% pushed out over results · of 700 coaches
The outcome
Pushed out over results — a firing, forced resignation, mutual parting or non-renewal, each read case by case. Leaving for a better job, or retiring on his own terms, doesn’t count.
Buyout
$3,159,375 reported, USA Today, Oct. 2025 · 3.5× total pay · a large buyout, which lowers his chance of being let go · without it: 5%

How good is this number? Checked on every FBS coach from 2010 to 2025, with its percentages calibrated each season on earlier years only: they track what happened — coaches it put near 25% were out about a quarter of the time — and a version pricing the games left with the previous season’s ratings ranked jobs as well as the ranking this page used before. Each week it learns from coaches who were still on the job at that point, so a firing during the season counts. In the Boiling zone it has run a few points high. Every job, and the method.

Poach watch

This winter

8%chance he leaves this winter for a head-coaching job elsewhere, or an NFL coordinator jobSettled27th-highest of 132 FBS head coaches
0%50%+

Our poach model, on his record so far, the win chances for every game he has left, his program, his pay and his background. Ranked against the 132 FBS head coaches this season. The zone words describe the market’s interest; none of them says he is leaving.

What drives his number

The biggest factors in his profile, each against the typical FBS head coach today. The games he has left are priced into the number, not listed here.

  • ▲ Higher
    Paid $900,000 in 2025, the 19th percentile of published FBS head-coach pay · up 12% on the season before
  • ▲ Higher
    His team is 4-4, outscoring opponents by 3.2 points a game
  • ▲ Higher
    A Group of Five program · 28th percentile of FBS in program stature last season
How good is this number? It ranks a head coach who leaves for another head-coaching job ahead of one who stays 78 to 82% of the time, and its average came within a point of the share who actually left. What it can’t do

Tested on every FBS head coach from 2012 through 2025, each season scored by a model fit only on the seasons before it. From three games on, given one coach who left for a head-coaching job elsewhere or an NFL coordinator job and one who stayed, it ranked the one who left ahead 79 to 82% of the time; in a season’s first two games, 78%. Its average chance came within a point of the share who actually left. It counts a move a coach makes while he still holds the job; when his school ends it, that doesn’t count, even if another school then hires him.

  • The live number prices the games he has left with the power model’s ratings from this season. The test priced them with each team’s rating from the season before, because ratings made during past seasons were not kept, so this live version could not be replayed.
  • Programs new to FBS have no FBS record before this season in the data it reads, so their coaches are scored without one.
  • It is frozen: it learns nothing from 2026 until a deliberate refit.
  • A coach hired in December needs his background (age, alma mater, the state he was born in) added before his first game, or he shows as not rated.