The Zeitgeist List · coaching

Dave Clawson

Followed Jim Grobe. Dave Clawson moved Wake Forest from Regional Program II to National Program III in 11 seasons.

The ascent

99–101

2009–2024 · 2 stints

Career arc

His real stature score, season by season, across every program he’s coached — so a stretch that stays in one tier the whole way can still climb or sink on the line, not just flatten out. Node color marks the tier reached. Which program a stretch belongs to is carried by the shaded lane behind it.

Reached National Program in his 13th career season — faster than 2% of the 675 FBS coaches who have ever reached National Program (rank #662 of 675 by seasons-to-arrival).

Bowling Green, 5 seasons

−3.9

Regional Program II → Regional Program II.

Wake Forest, 11 seasons

+7.9

Regional Program II → National Program III.

Style position and drift

Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.

Pass rate — share of offensive plays that were pass attemptsfirst covered seasonmost recent covered seasonfull season-to-season range (3+ covered seasons)

How much that is, against every other stint

Season-to-season pass-rate range for all 258 FBS coaching stints with at least three covered seasons, 2014–2025.

Typical stint7.010.2 median13.9middle half of all stints

Wake Forest10.3pt#128 of 258 · a typical amount

The big-game ledger

How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.

1–4 against his rivals. Winless in 11 tries against Dabo Swinney.

Rivalry record

1–4

20.0% · 1 rival

One-score games

28–35

44.4% · margin ≤8

vs. Blue Blood or better

0–1

0.0%

Rivalry ledger

Toledo1–420%

The toughest matchup

vs. Dabo Swinney0–11

11 meetings, 2014–2024

’14 L · blew a 7-pt lead’15 L’16 L’17 L’18 L’19 L’20 L’21 L’22 L · blew a 8-pt lead’23 L · blew a 3-pt lead’24 L · blew a 7-pt lead

0% win rate across a real, 11-meeting series — short of the bar this site uses before badging a series “Nemesis.” Shown here as the toughest matchup on record, not an algorithmic crown.

Performance by opponent class

Dynasty

0–1 0.0%

Blue Blood

0–13 0.0%

Power Program

7–22 24.1%

National Program

22–27 44.9%

Regional Program

48–31 60.8%

His own effect, isolated

A statistical estimate of this coach’s contribution to team performance, separated from that season’s roster talent, returning production, and his coordinators — pooled across his whole head-coaching career.

Offense marginal impact

-0.11

#202 of 319 · a typical amount

Defense marginal impact

-0.25

#283 of 325 · less than most

Model fit as of 2026-09-04.

Coaching career

2014–2024

Wake Forestcaretaker

Regional Program II → National Program III

Dave Clawson moved Wake Forest from Regional Program II to National Program III in 11 seasons.

4th-best Wake Forest tenure of 16 by the numbers.

Recruiter or developer?

Performs about as expected for his recruiting talent, on both sides of the ball.

Offense vs. talent

-6.5 pts

#137 of 208 · a typical amount

Defense vs. talent

-10.1 pts

#147 of 208 · a typical amount

Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Followed Jim Grobe (2001–2013) · succeeded by Jake Dickert (2025–2026).

Season	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024
Record & result
Record	3–9	3–9	7–6	8–5	7–6	8–5	4–5	11–3	8–5	4–8	4–8
Postseason	—	—	W bowl	W CFP	W bowl	L bowl	L bowl	W bowl	W bowl	—	—
Recruiting rank	#67	#51	#57	#68	#64	#57	#60	#66	#71	#53	#52
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	50.1	50.0	39.8	44.2	41.4	44.5	45.1	47.9	48.6	40.7	48.0
Coordinators
OC	Warren Ruggiero	Warren Ruggiero	Warren Ruggiero	Warren Ruggiero	Warren Ruggiero	Warren Ruggiero	Warren Ruggiero	Warren Ruggiero	Warren Ruggiero	Warren Ruggiero	Warren Ruggiero
DC	Mike Elko	Mike Elko	Mike Elko	Jay Sawvel	Jay Sawvel	Lyle Hemphill	Lyle Hemphill	Lyle Hemphill	Brad Lambert	Brad Lambert	Brad Lambert
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	0	9	7	83	57	29	60	84	70	15	15
Defense	67	45	79	43	42	42	50	37	19	19	21
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only)
1st-down pass%	50.2	48.4	44.4	50.0	46.1	44.2	37.4	48.5	50.5	38.4	45.0
Red-zone pass%	50.0	42.9	34.5	42.7	35.8	38.0	35.7	38.5	38.6	39.2	46.8
4th-down go%opp. territory	35.3	20.6	22.0	28.6	40.9	30.6	32.3	29.3	45.0	31.0	42.9

Roster construction · portal era

Barely touches the portal — recruits and develops his own.

Portal arrivals

2.9★ avg rating

Portal departures

left via the portal

Net portal flow

-29

#170 of 187 FBS stints

Notable portal arrivals with a modeled NIL value

Mateen Ibirogba On3 modeled · $1,000,000

On3’s modeled estimate (social reach / exposure), not money actually paid — shown per player, never totaled.

Who they bring in

Brings in bigger-than-position-typical players than most.

Recruits older, more experienced transfers than most.

Avg. size (raw)

6′2″, 241 lbs

across 15 of 18 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix

Size vs. position-typical

+6.9 lbs

#49 of 255 · more than most

Avg. class year

#9 of 255 · more than most

Top states: CA (3), NC (2), TX (2), TN (2), AR (1)

Who won the portal our read

Talent added

47.6

position-weighted

Talent lost

57.5

position-weighted

Net

-9.9

arrivals minus departures

Best addition: Hank Bachmeier (QB) from Louisiana Tech

Biggest loss: Sam Hartman (QB) to Notre Dame

Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.

Does the system survive a coordinator change?

DC: Mike Elko → Jay Sawvel · 2017the defense slipped

2-season window either side.

DC: Lyle Hemphill → Brad Lambert · 2022the defense slipped

2-season window either side.

Roster size, by position

Skill positions · usage-weighted (real participation)

Quarterback

207 lbs

6′1″ avg · #558 of 767 · a typical amount

Running back

206 lbs

5′10″ avg · #442 of 791 · a typical amount

Wide receiver

195 lbs

6′1″ avg · #295 of 791 · a typical amount

Tight end

242 lbs

6′4″ avg · #490 of 731 · a typical amount

Trench & secondary · recruited roster, not confirmed starters

Interior line

307 lbs

6′4″ avg · #494 of 779 · a typical amount

D-line

274 lbs

6′3″ avg · #587 of 753 · less than most

Linebacker

227 lbs

6′1″ avg · #462 of 772 · a typical amount

Cornerback

192 lbs

6′0″ avg · #290 of 771 · a typical amount

Offensive-line size is one undifferentiated bucket — the source data almost never distinguishes tackle from guard from center, so we can't split them out.

Where the roster comes from, by position

Grows K from high school

100%

#52 of 56 stints

Grows Tight end from high school

91%

#163 of 188 stints

Postseason detail2016: Beat Temple 34–26 Military Bowl Presented By Northrop Grumman2017: Beat Texas A&M 55–52 CFP2018: Beat Memphis 37–34 Jared Birmingham Bowl2019: Lost to Michigan State 21–27 New Era Pinstripe Bowl2020: Lost to Wisconsin 28–42 Duke's Mayo Bowl2021: Beat Rutgers 38–10 TaxSlayer Gator Bowl2022: Beat Missouri 27–17 Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl

16 NFL Draft picks: Michael Campanaro (2014), Kevin Johnson (2015), Marquel Lee (2017), Jessie Bates III (2018), Duke Ejiofor (2018), Phil Haynes (2019), Justin Strnad (2020), Justin Herron (2020) + 8 more

67–69

2009–2013

Bowling Greencaretaker

Regional Program II → Regional Program II

Dave Clawson held Bowling Green at Regional Program II for 5 seasons.

9th-best Bowling Green tenure of 14 by the numbers.

Followed Gregg Brandon (2003–2008) · succeeded by Dino Babers (2014–2015).

Where the roster comes from, by position

Grows Tight end from high school

100%

#164 of 188 stints

Grows Edge from high school

100%

#191 of 208 stints

1 NFL Draft pick: Christopher Jones (2013)

32–32