Wake Forest: a football coaching history

Big movers show how many stature points they built or lost against what they inherited; steadier tenures show the tier they reached instead. A small blue arrow marks a real System Shift at that changeover — how hard the offense’s run/pass identity flipped.

2025–now

Jake Dickert Short tenure

2026 offense ranked in the 99th percentile nationally — elite

16-5

2014–2024

Dave Clawson Steady

Dave Clawson moved Wake Forest from Regional Program II to National Program III in 11 seasons.

2014 offense ranked in the 0th percentile nationally — historically bad

+7.9 pts over 11 seasons · bottom 33% of 10+-season tenures (202 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Mike Riley’s Oregon State run (1997–1998, 2003–2014)

4th-best Wake Forest tenure of 13 by the numbers.

Followed Jim Grobe (2001–2013) · succeeded by Jake Dickert (2025–now).

System Shift, on departure

System Shift, on arrival

Season	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024
Record & result
Record	3-9	3-9	7-6	8-5	7-6	8-5	4-5	11-3	8-5	4-8	4-8
Postseason	—	—	W bowl	W bowl	W bowl	L bowl	L bowl	W bowl	W bowl	—	—
Recruiting rank	#67	#51	#57	#68	#64	#57	#60	#66	#71	#53	#52
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	50.1	50.0	39.8	44.2	41.4	44.5	45.1	47.9	48.6	40.7	48.0
Coordinators
OC	Warren Ruggiero	Warren Ruggiero	Warren Ruggiero	Warren Ruggiero	Warren Ruggiero	Warren Ruggiero	Warren Ruggiero	Warren Ruggiero	Warren Ruggiero	Warren Ruggiero	Warren Ruggiero
DC	Mike Elko	Mike Elko	Mike Elko	Jay Sawvel	Jay Sawvel	Lyle Hemphill	Lyle Hemphill	Lyle Hemphill	Brad Lambert	Brad Lambert	Brad Lambert
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	0	9	7	83	57	29	60	86	70	15	15
Defense	67	45	79	43	42	42	41	50	19	19	21
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%	50.2	48.4	44.4	50.0	46.1	44.2	37.4	48.5	50.5	38.4	45.0
Red-zone pass%	50.0	42.9	34.5	42.7	35.8	38.0	35.7	38.5	38.6	39.2	46.8
4th-down go%opp. territory	35.3	20.6	22.0	28.6	40.9	30.6	32.3	29.3	45.0	31.0	42.9

Recruiter or developer?

Performs about as expected for his recruiting talent, on both sides of the ball.

Offense vs. talent

-6.4 pts

#140 of 208 · middle half

Defense vs. talent

-9.7 pts

#149 of 208 · middle half

Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Roster construction · portal era

Barely touches the portal — recruits and develops his own.

Portal arrivals

2.9★ avg rating

Portal departures

left via the portal

Net portal flow

-29

#170 of 187 FBS stints

Notable portal arrivals with a modeled NIL value

Mateen Ibirogba On3 modeled · $1,000,000

On3’s modeled estimate (social reach / exposure), not money actually paid — shown per player, never totaled.

Who they bring in

Brings in bigger-than-position-typical players than most.

Recruits older, more experienced transfers than most.

Avg. size (raw)

6′2″, 241 lbs

across 15 of 18 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix

Size vs. position-typical

+7.2 lbs

#50 of 255 · top quarter

Avg. class year

#1 of 255 · top quarter

Top states: CA (3), NC (2), TX (2), TN (2), AR (1)

Who won the portal our read

Talent added

47.6

position-weighted

Talent lost

57.5

position-weighted

Net

-9.9

arrivals minus departures

Best addition: Hank Bachmeier (QB) from Louisiana Tech

Biggest loss: Sam Hartman (QB) to Notre Dame

Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.

Does the system survive a coordinator change?

DC: Mike Elko → Jay Sawvel · 2017The defense slipped

2-season window either side.

DC: Lyle Hemphill → Brad Lambert · 2022The defense slipped

2-season window either side.

Roster size, by position

Skill positions · usage-weighted (real participation)

Quarterback

207 lbs

6′1″ avg · #558 of 767 · middle half

Running back

206 lbs

5′10″ avg · #442 of 791 · middle half

Wide receiver

195 lbs

6′1″ avg · #295 of 791 · middle half

Tight end

242 lbs

6′4″ avg · #490 of 731 · middle half

Trench & secondary · recruited roster, not confirmed starters

Interior line

307 lbs

6′4″ avg · #494 of 779 · middle half

D-line

274 lbs

6′3″ avg · #587 of 753 · bottom quarter

Linebacker

227 lbs

6′1″ avg · #462 of 772 · middle half

Cornerback

192 lbs

6′0″ avg · #290 of 771 · middle half

Offensive-line size is one undifferentiated bucket — the source data almost never distinguishes tackle from guard from center, so we can't split them out.

Where the roster comes from, by position

Grows Kicker from high school

100%

#52 of 56 stints

Grows Tight end from high school

91%

#163 of 188 stints

Postseason detail2016: Beat Temple 34-26 Military Bowl Presented By Northrop Grumman2017: Beat Texas A&M 55-52 Bowl2018: Beat Memphis 37-34 Jared Birmingham Bowl2019: Lost to Michigan State 21-27 New Era Pinstripe Bowl2020: Lost to Wisconsin 28-42 Duke's Mayo Bowl2021: Beat Rutgers 38-10 TaxSlayer Gator Bowl2022: Beat Missouri 27-17 Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl

15 NFL Draft picks: Kevin Johnson (2015), Marquel Lee (2017), Jessie Bates III (2018), Duke Ejiofor (2018), Phil Haynes (2019), Justin Strnad (2020), Justin Herron (2020), Carlos Basham Jr. (2021) + 7 more

+7.9

67-69

2001–2013

Jim Grobe Builder

Jim Grobe raised the Demon Deacons from Regional Program III to National Program II.

Swung 20.1 points of pass rate — #32 of 449 FBS coaching stints since 2004

+15.4 pts over 13 seasons · top 38% of 10+-season tenures (202 in sample)

Closest comparable run: David Shaw’s Stanford run (2011–2022)

3rd-best Wake Forest tenure of 13 by the numbers.

Followed Jim Caldwell (1993–2000) · succeeded by Dave Clawson (2014–2024).

System Shift, on departure

Season	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013
Record & result
Record	6-5	7-6	5-7	4-7	4-7	11-3	9-4	8-5	5-7	3-9	6-7	5-7	4-8
Postseason	—	W bowl	—	—	—	L bowl	W bowl	W bowl	—	—	L bowl	—	—
Recruiting rank	—	—	—	#102	#65	#66	#69	#62	#62	#63	#66	#66	#65
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	—	—	—	31.6	35.7	34.6	41.6	41.8	49.3	39.7	49.6	51.5	51.6
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	—	—	—	42	17	70	27	26	66	12	28	5	13
Defense	—	—	—	17	84	35	91	65	20	15	81	31	84
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%	—	—	—	27.8	32.8	35.7	37.8	36.9	44.5	38.3	49.3	53.0	54.8
Red-zone pass%	—	—	—	10.5	20.4	31.7	27.8	28.7	45.1	30.0	54.5	31.9	41.5
4th-down go%opp. territory	—	—	—	40.7	26.7	11.6	28.6	22.2	21.6	40.0	27.9	42.9	22.9

Where the roster comes from, by position

Grows Kicker from high school

100%

#52 of 56 stints

Grows Tight end from high school

100%

#164 of 188 stints

Postseason detail2002: Beat Oregon 38-17 Bowl2006: Lost to Louisville 13-24 Orange Bowl At Miami Fl2007: Beat UConn 24-10 Bowl2008: Beat Navy 29-19 Bowl2011: Lost to Mississippi State 17-23 Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl

22 NFL Draft picks: Calvin Pace (2003), Ovie Mughelli (2003), Montique Sharpe (2003), Eric King (2005), Ryan Plackemeier (2006), Josh Gattis (2007), Steve Vallos (2007), Jeremy Thompson (2008) + 14 more

+15.4

77-82

1993–2000

Jim Caldwell Steady

Jim Caldwell held the Demon Deacons at Regional Program III for 8 seasons.

−7.9 pts over 8 seasons · bottom 11% of 6-9-season tenures (368 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Bo Pelini’s Nebraska run (2003 (1 game), 2008–2014)

8th-best Wake Forest tenure of 13 by the numbers.

Followed Bill Dooley (1987–1992) · succeeded by Jim Grobe (2001–2013).

Season	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000
Record & result
Record	2-9	3-8	1-10	3-8	5-6	3-8	7-5	2-9
Postseason	—	—	—	—	—	—	W bowl	—
Recruiting rank	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Defense	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Red-zone pass%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4th-down go%opp. territory	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Postseason detail1999: Beat Arizona State 23-3 Bowl

4 NFL Draft picks: Desmond Clark (1999), Fred Robbins (2000), Dustin Lyman (2000), Reggie Austin (2000)

−7.9

26-63

1987–1992

Bill Dooley Steady

Bill Dooley moved the Demon Deacons from Regional Program IV to Regional Program III in 6 seasons.

+4.2 pts over 6 seasons · top 38% of 6-9-season tenures (368 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Matt Wells’s Utah State run (2013–2018)

7th-best Wake Forest tenure of 13 by the numbers.

Followed Al Groh (1981–1986) · succeeded by Jim Caldwell (1993–2000).

Season	1987	1988	1989	1990	1991	1992
Record & result
Record	7-4	6-4-1	2-8-1	3-8	3-8	8-4
Postseason	—	—	—	—	—	W bowl
Recruiting rank	—	—	—	—	—	—
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	—	—	—	—	—	—
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	—	—	—	—	—	—
Defense	—	—	—	—	—	—
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%	—	—	—	—	—	—
Red-zone pass%	—	—	—	—	—	—
4th-down go%opp. territory	—	—	—	—	—	—

Postseason detail1992: Beat Oregon 39-35 Bowl

7 NFL Draft picks: Mike Elkins (1989), David Braxton (1989), Ricky Proehl (1990), Tony Mayberry (1990), Ben Coleman (1993), John Henry Mills (1993), Mike McCrary (1993)

+4.2

29-36-2

1981–1986

Al Groh Steady

Al Groh held the Demon Deacons at Regional Program IV for 6 seasons.

−2.9 pts over 6 seasons · bottom 32% of 6-9-season tenures (368 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Mike Bloomgren’s Rice run (2018–2024)

10th-best Wake Forest tenure of 13 by the numbers.

Followed John Mackovic (1978–1980) · succeeded by Bill Dooley (1987–1992).

2 NFL Draft picks: Kenny Duckett (1982), Paul Kiser (1987)

−2.9

26-40

1978–1980

John Mackovic Steady

John Mackovic moved Wake Forest from Regional Program V to Regional Program IV in 3 seasons.

+4.5 pts over 3 seasons · top 15% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)

Closest comparable run: David Braun’s Northwestern run (2023–now)

11th-best Wake Forest tenure of 13 by the numbers.

Followed Chuck Mills (1973–1977) · succeeded by Al Groh (1981–1986).

Season	1978	1979	1980
Record & result
Record	1-10	8-4	5-6
Postseason	—	L bowl	—
Recruiting rank	—	—	—
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	—	—	—
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	—	—	—
Defense	—	—	—
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%	—	—	—
Red-zone pass%	—	—	—
4th-down go%opp. territory	—	—	—

Postseason detail1979: Lost to LSU 10-34 Bowl

1 NFL Draft pick: Syd Kitson (1980)

+4.5

14-20

1973–1977

Chuck Mills Steady

Chuck Mills slid the Demon Deacons from Regional Program IV to Regional Program V in 5 seasons.

−3.2 pts over 5 seasons · bottom 47% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Hal Mumme’s New Mexico State run (2005–2008)

13th-best Wake Forest tenure of 13 by the numbers.

Followed Tom Harper (1972) · succeeded by John Mackovic (1978–1980).

2 NFL Draft picks: Chuck Ramsey (1974), Larry Tearry (1978)

−3.2

11-43-1

1972

Tom Harper Short tenure

2-9

1969–1971

Cal Stoll Steady

Cal Stoll moved the Demon Deacons from Regional Program IV to Regional Program III in 3 seasons.

+2.8 pts over 3 seasons · top 21% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Art Briles’s Houston run (2003–2007)

9th-best Wake Forest tenure of 13 by the numbers.

Followed William Tate (1964–1968) · succeeded by Tom Harper (1972).

2 NFL Draft picks: Ed George (1970), Ed Bradley (1972)

+2.8

15-17

1964–1968

William Tate Steady

William Tate held Wake Forest at Regional Program IV for 5 seasons.

+1.1 pts over 5 seasons · top 29% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Herm Edwards’s Arizona State run (2018–2022)

12th-best Wake Forest tenure of 13 by the numbers.

Followed Billy Hildebrand (1960–1963) · succeeded by Cal Stoll (1969–1971).

3 NFL Draft picks: Bob Grant (1968), Ken Henry (1968), Fred Summers (1969)

+1.1

17-32-1

1960–1963

Billy Hildebrand Steady

Billy Hildebrand slid Wake Forest from Regional Program II to Regional Program IV in 4 seasons.

−11.6 pts over 4 seasons · bottom 8% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Gary Andersen’s Oregon State run (2015–2017)

6th-best Wake Forest tenure of 13 by the numbers.

Followed Paul Amen (1956–1959) · succeeded by William Tate (1964–1968).

−11.6

7-33

1956–1959

Paul Amen Steady

Paul Amen slid Wake Forest from National Program III to Regional Program II in 4 seasons.

−6.2 pts over 4 seasons · bottom 29% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Jeff Woodruff’s Eastern Michigan run (2000–2003)

5th-best Wake Forest tenure of 13 by the numbers.

Followed Tom Rogers (1951–1955) · succeeded by Billy Hildebrand (1960–1963).

−6.2

11-26-3

1951–1955

Tom Rogers Steady

Tom Rogers slid the Demon Deacons from National Program I to National Program III in 5 seasons.

−10.1 pts over 5 seasons · bottom 13% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Tim Brewster’s Minnesota run (2007–2010)

2nd-best Wake Forest tenure of 13 by the numbers.

Followed D.C. Walker (1937–1950) · succeeded by Paul Amen (1956–1959).

−10.1

21-25-4

1937–1950

D.C. Walker Builder

D.C. Walker raised the Demon Deacons from Regional Program IV to National Program I.

+24.0 pts over 14 seasons · top 19% of 10+-season tenures (202 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Steve Spurrier’s Florida run (1990–2001)

1st-best Wake Forest tenure of 13 by the numbers.

Followed Jim Weaver (1936) · succeeded by Tom Rogers (1951–1955).

+24.0

77-51-6

1936

Jim Weaver Short tenure

5-4