Dowell Loggains

Head coach · App State
2nd season · since 2025

At App State10-11since 2025 · 5-3 this seasonHot seatCool8% · 44th of 132 jobsLast gameL 3-19at Georgia Southern · Oct 31Nextvs Georgia StateSat Nov 7 · 2:30 pm ET
This week · as of Wed Nov 4

5-3, on track for 7-5 in the regular season.

Now

Career arc

Bowls and playoffs: 0-1

2025Birmingham BowlL 10-29

This week Wed Nov 4

  • Last gameL 3-19 at Georgia Southern Sat Oct 31
  • This season5-3
  • Hot seat8% 44th of 132
  • On track for7-5 regular season
  • Nextvs. Georgia State Sat Nov 7
  • Stature70th of 138 FBS programs

What the result changed

  • Playoff odds 0.1% → <0.1% CFB Zeitgeist forecast, before and after

Win and he’s at 6%. Lose and he’s at 9%.

vs. Georgia State, Sat Nov 7, 2:30 pm ET ESPN+ · Georgia State is 4-4 · Loggains vs. Dell McGee: 1-0 · App State’s chance to win: 58% (the site’s model)

CoolWarmHotBoilingIf App State wins: 6%, 49th of 132Now: 8%If App State loses: 9%, 40th of 1320%50%+
CoolWarmHotBoiling0%50%+
  • If App State wins: 6%, 49th of 132
  • Now: 8%
  • If App State loses: 9%, 40th of 132
His chance of being out after the season, now and after Saturday. Each tick is an FBS head coach’s number today; ranks are against today’s field. From the site’s hot-seat model.

Is he getting fired?

8% chance he’s out after the season · 44th of 132 FBS head coaches · Cool

Coolunder 10%Warm10–20%Hot20–35%Boiling35% upNow5% had they won5% had they wonLoss 9%Win 6%15%12%8%8%8%13%12%6%8%Pre1W vs. MaineW2W at East CarolinaW3W vs. CharlotteW4L at NC StateL5L vs. Old DominionL6W at Coastal CarolinaW7W vs. James MadisonW8L at Georgia SouthernL9Chance to win vs. Georgia State58%10Chance to win at Marshall42%11Chance to win vs. UL Monroe85%12Chance to win at South Alabama42%Game number. Under each game: the result, or his team’s chance to win it
CoolWarmHotBoilingNow5% had they wonLoss 9%Win 6%15%8%Pre368912Game
Dark line: his number after each game; a small dot just before a game is where it stood at kickoff, after other results moved it. Gray: where it could go, 8 seasons in 10 (darker, the middle half). The hollow dot: had his last game gone the other way. From the site’s hot-seat model.

If he finishes…

Bar: how likely that finish isNumber: his chance of being out

  1. 5-717%
  2. 6-611%
  3. 7-57%
  4. 8-44%
  5. 9-32%
Why his number is where it is

Our hot-seat model, on his record so far, the win chances for every game he has left, and his contract (a bigger buyout, relative to pay, makes a change costlier). Ranked against the 132 FBS head coaches with 3+ games this season.

Now right where 2025 was at this point.

His hot seat, week by week

The chance he’s out by the end of that season, as it stood after every week of his tenure here, by today’s model.

BoilingHotWarmCool202520262025, week 3 (3 games in): 3%, 68th-hottest of 118 FBS jobs2025, week 4 (3 games in): 3%, 77th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 5 (4 games in): 3%, 76th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 6 (5 games in): 2%, 83rd-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 7 (6 games in): 2%, 86th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 8 (7 games in): 2%, 82nd-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 9 (8 games in): 2%, 79th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 10 (8 games in): 2%, 76th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 11 (9 games in): 3%, 69th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 12 (10 games in): 3%, 65th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 13 (11 games in): 2%, 71st-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 14 (12 games in): 3%, 66th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 15 (12 games in): 3%, 66th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 16 (12 games in): 3%, 66th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2026, week 3 (3 games in): 8%, 51st-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2026, week 4 (4 games in): 8%, 52nd-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 5 (4 games in): 8%, 52nd-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 6 (5 games in): 13%, 37th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 7 (6 games in): 11%, 43rd-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 8 (7 games in): 6%, 59th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 9 (8 games in): 7%, 48th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 10 (8 games in): 8%, 44th-hottest of 132 FBS jobsnow

Earlier seasons price the games left with power ratings rebuilt after those seasons ended.

What drives his number

The biggest factors, each against the typical FBS job today.

  • ▲ Hotter
    5-8 over his previous season here
  • ▲ Hotter
    $2.5M buyout · 2.5× his pay, a multiple below average in FBS — cheap to move on
  • ▼ Cooler
    Year 2 · tenure, which this model overrates
    (why?)

    Tenure is one of this model’s strongest inputs, but its weight was set when retirements like Nick Saban’s and Bob Stoops’ still counted as being pushed out, so it overstates how much tenure matters.

What happened to coaches like him, 2004–2025

A different comparison: past coaches, not today’s, grouped by one fact at a time. Neither line knows the games he has left or his contract, so they can sit above or below his chance.

Were 5-3 after 8 games
5% pushed out over results · of 502 coaches
Were in year 2, after 8 games
5% pushed out over results · of 469 coaches
The outcome
Pushed out over results — a firing, forced resignation, mutual parting or non-renewal, each read case by case. Leaving for a better job, or retiring on his own terms, doesn’t count.
Buyout
$2,450,000 reported, USA Today, Oct. 2025 · 2.5× total pay · a small buyout, which raises his chance of being let go · without it: 4%

How good is this number? Checked on every FBS coach from 2010 to 2025, with its percentages calibrated each season on earlier years only: they track what happened — coaches it put near 25% were out about a quarter of the time — and a version pricing the games left with the previous season’s ratings ranked jobs as well as the ranking this page used before. Each week it learns from coaches who were still on the job at that point, so a firing during the season counts. In the Boiling zone it has run a few points high. Every job, and the method.

No headlines named him in the last 7 days

What they are talking about, week and season

Offense: 87th of 138 per play. Defense: 84th.

Offense, per play87thRunning offense114thDefense, per play84thDefense, big plays allowed23rdWorstBest
Offense, per play87th of 138Running offense114th of 138Defense, per play84th of 138Defense, big plays allowed23rd of 138WorstBest
Through 8 games. Each tick is an FBS team, adjusted for opponent strength (CFB Zeitgeist model); the dot is App State. The other two rows are where App State stands furthest from the middle. Early-season numbers move a lot.

4 games left

  1. Sat Nov 7vs. Georgia State (4-4)ESPN+58%
  2. Sat Nov 14at Marshall (5-3)ESPN+42%
  3. Sat Nov 21vs. UL Monroe (1-7)85%
  4. Fri Nov 27at South Alabama (4-4)ESPN+42%

Percent: App State’s chance to win, from the site’s model. Records are through today. Networks as announced; the rest are set closer to kickoff.

How the season got here

Where App State stood among 138 FBS programs by stature after each game (1st is the highest; the CFB Zeitgeist ledger).

63rd69th75thPreseason68thMaine W 55-3Maine W 55-3W 55-3Maine69thEast Carolina W 27-24East Carolina W 27-24W 27-24East Carolina69thCharlotte W 26-21Charlotte W 26-21W 26-21Charlotte69thNC State L 31-41NC State L 31-41L 31-41NC State69thOld Dominion L 3-10Old Dominion L 3-10L 3-10Old Dominion68thCoastal Carolina W 35-32Coastal Carolina W 35-32W 35-32Coastal Carol…69thJames Madison W 34-31James Madison W 34-31W 34-31James Madison70thGeorgia Southern L 3-19Georgia Southern L 3-19L 3-19Georgia South…68th
  1. Oct 26–Nov 1L 3-19 at Georgia Southern0 headlines
  2. Oct 19–25W 34-31 vs. James Madison1 headline · 81st of 138
  3. Oct 12–18W 35-32 at Coastal Carolina0 headlines
  4. Oct 5–11L 3-10 vs. Old Dominion0 headlines
  5. Sep 28–Oct 4No game0 headlines
  6. Sep 21–27 · rebuiltL 31-41 at NC State0 headlines

Each week as this page showed it at the time. Weeks marked rebuilt came before this page existed: they were built afterward from only what was known by the end of that week.

Watch the biggest plays from App State’s games, ranked by how much each moved the chance to win.

Poach watch

This winter

4%chance he leaves this winter for a head-coaching job elsewhere, or an NFL coordinator jobSettled46th-highest of 132 FBS head coaches
0%50%+

Our poach model, on his record so far, the win chances for every game he has left, his program, his pay and his background. Ranked against the 132 FBS head coaches this season. The zone words describe the market’s interest; none of them says he is leaving.

What drives his number

The biggest factors in his profile, each against the typical FBS head coach today. The games he has left are priced into the number, not listed here.

  • ▲ Higher
    Age 46 · neither at his alma mater nor in the state he was born in
  • ▼ Lower
    5-8 over his previous season here
  • ▲ Higher
    Paid $1 million in 2025, the 25th percentile of published FBS head-coach pay
How good is this number? It ranks a head coach who leaves for another head-coaching job ahead of one who stays 78 to 82% of the time, and its average came within a point of the share who actually left. What it can’t do

Tested on every FBS head coach from 2012 through 2025, each season scored by a model fit only on the seasons before it. From three games on, given one coach who left for a head-coaching job elsewhere or an NFL coordinator job and one who stayed, it ranked the one who left ahead 79 to 82% of the time; in a season’s first two games, 78%. Its average chance came within a point of the share who actually left. It counts a move a coach makes while he still holds the job; when his school ends it, that doesn’t count, even if another school then hires him.

  • The live number prices the games he has left with the power model’s ratings from this season. The test priced them with each team’s rating from the season before, because ratings made during past seasons were not kept, so this live version could not be replayed.
  • Programs new to FBS have no FBS record before this season in the data it reads, so their coaches are scored without one.
  • It is frozen: it learns nothing from 2026 until a deliberate refit.
  • A coach hired in December needs his background (age, alma mater, the state he was born in) added before his first game, or he shows as not rated.