Jimmy Rogers

Head coach · Iowa State
1st season · since 2026 · Washington State before

At Iowa State4-4since 2026 · 4-4 this seasonHot seatCool1% · 83rd of 132 jobsLast gameW 51-49vs Oklahoma State · Oct 31Nextat BaylorSat Nov 7 · 12 pm ET
This week · as of Wed Nov 4

4-4, on track for 5-7 in the regular season.

Now

Career arc

Stature score by season, then after every game this seasonFBS medianWashington StateIowa StatePower Programperennial contenderNational Programrespectable, streakyRegional Programthe building-block levelWashington State when he took over: 24.5 (Regional Program I), its final 2024 readingtook overWashington State, 2025: 6-6, Regional Program IWashington State, 2025: 6-6, Regional Program I2025+0.4Iowa State when he took over: 38.5 (National Program I), its final 2025 readingtook overIowa State, 2026 preseason: 38.3, National Program IIowa State, 2026 preseason: 38.3, National Program I2026 preIowa State, 2026 after W 38-10 vs Southeast Missouri State: 37.6, National Program IW 38-10Southeast …Iowa State, 2026 after L 13-16 vs Iowa: 37.1, National Program IL 13-16IowaIowa State, 2026 after W 55-7 vs Bowling Green: 36.9, National Program IW 55-7Bowling Gr…Iowa State, 2026 after L 17-31 vs Utah: 36.7, National Program IIL 17-31UtahIowa State, 2026 after W 45-42 vs West Virginia: 36.2, National Program IIW 45-42West Virgi…Iowa State, 2026 after L 10-24 vs BYU: 36.2, National Program IIL 10-24BYUIowa State, 2026 after L 3-39 vs Arizona: 36.1, National Program IIL 3-39ArizonaIowa State, 2026 after W 51-49 vs Oklahoma State: 35.5, National Program IIIowa State, 2026 after W 51-49 vs Oklahoma State: 35.5, National Program IIW 51-49Oklahoma S…-0.2best: 2026 preseason○ the program when he took over · Earlier seasons: one reading each. 2026: preseason, then after each game — spacing is not proportional to calendar time

This week Wed Nov 4

  • Last gameW 51-49 vs. Oklahoma State Sat Oct 31
  • This season4-4
  • On track for5-7 regular season
  • Nextat Baylor Sat Nov 7
  • Stature45th of 138 FBS programs

Saturday: at Baylor

Sat Nov 7, 12 pm ET · Baylor is 5-3 · First meeting between Rogers and Joe Klanderman as head coaches · Iowa State’s chance to win: 7% (the site’s model)

Many stories this week →

The headlines, Nov 1–4 from a few outlets

On the podcasts

Offense: 105th of 138 per play. Defense: 95th.

Offense, per play105thOffense, starting field position135thDefense, per play95thDefense, points allowed per trip inside the 4033rdWorstBest
Offense, per play105th of 138Offense, starting field position135th of 138Defense, per play95th of 138Defense, points allowed per trip inside the 4033rd of 138WorstBest
Through 8 games. Each tick is an FBS team, adjusted for opponent strength (CFB Zeitgeist model); the dot is Iowa State. The other two rows are where Iowa State stands furthest from the middle. Early-season numbers move a lot.

4 games left

  1. Sat Nov 7at Baylor (5-3)7%
  2. Sat Nov 14vs. Cincinnati (5-3)36%
  3. Fri Nov 20at UCF (4-4)FS137%
  4. Sat Nov 28vs. Kansas State (4-4)36%

Percent: Iowa State’s chance to win, from the site’s model. Records are through today. Networks as announced; the rest are set closer to kickoff.

How the season got here

Where Iowa State stood among 138 FBS programs by stature after each game (1st is the highest; the CFB Zeitgeist ledger).

36th42nd48thPreseason39thSoutheast Missouri State W 38-10Southeast Missouri State W 38-10W 38-10Southeast Mis…40thIowa L 13-16Iowa L 13-16L 13-16Iowa41stBowling Green W 55-7Bowling Green W 55-7W 55-7Bowling Green41stUtah L 17-31Utah L 17-31L 17-31Utah42ndWest Virginia W 45-42West Virginia W 45-42W 45-42West Virginia43rdBYU L 10-24BYU L 10-24L 10-24BYU43rdArizona L 3-39Arizona L 3-39L 3-39Arizona43rdOklahoma State W 51-49Oklahoma State W 51-49W 51-49Oklahoma State44th
  1. Oct 26–Nov 1W 51-49 vs. Oklahoma State22 headlines · 27th of 138Three Stars, Three Takeaways: Iowa State, Jimmy Rogers get first marquee win of 2026 247Sports
  2. Oct 19–25L 3-39 at Arizona18 headlines · 25th of 138Iowa State football coach Jimmy Rogers discusses loss to Arizona The Des Moines Register
  3. Oct 12–18No game3 headlines · 64th of 138Iowa State Should Be Thankful If Jimmy Rogers Gets Them A Bowl Game Yahoo Sports
  4. Oct 5–11L 10-24 at BYU8 headlines · 48th of 138What Iowa State coach Jimmy Rogers said after losing to BYU Deseret News
  5. Sep 28–Oct 4W 45-42 vs. West Virginia13 headlines · 35th of 138Jimmy Rogers on Iowa State football's win over West Virginia The Des Moines Register
  6. Sep 21–27 · rebuiltL 17-31 vs. Utah13 headlines · 30th of 138What Iowa State coach Jimmy Rogers said after losing to Utah Yahoo Sports

Each week as this page showed it at the time. Weeks marked rebuilt came before this page existed: they were built afterward from only what was known by the end of that week.

Watch the biggest plays from Iowa State’s games, ranked by how much each moved the chance to win.

Hot seat

See every job →

This season

1%chance he’s out by the end of this seasonCool83rd-hottest of 132 FBS jobs
0%50%+

Our hot-seat model, on his record so far, the win chances for every game he has left, and his contract (a bigger buyout, relative to pay, makes a change costlier). Ranked against the 132 FBS head coaches with 3+ games this season.

His first rated season here.

His hot seat, week by week

The chance he’s out by the end of that season, as it stood after every week of his tenure here, by today’s model.

BoilingHotWarmCool20262026, week 3 (3 games in): 2%, 89th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2026, week 4 (4 games in): 2%, 89th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 5 (5 games in): 2%, 88th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 6 (6 games in): 2%, 90th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 7 (6 games in): 2%, 88th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 8 (7 games in): 2%, 82nd-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 9 (8 games in): 1%, 88th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 10 (8 games in): 1%, 83rd-hottest of 132 FBS jobsnow

What drives his number

The biggest factors, each against the typical FBS job today.

  • ▼ Cooler
    Year 1 · tenure, which this model overrates
    (why?)

    Tenure is one of this model’s strongest inputs, but its weight was set when retirements like Nick Saban’s and Bob Stoops’ still counted as being pushed out, so it overstates how much tenure matters.

  • ▲ Hotter
    4-4, outscoring opponents by 14
  • ▼ Cooler
    No previous seasons here to judge him on

What happened to coaches like him, 2004–2025

A different comparison: past coaches, not today’s, grouped by one fact at a time. Neither line knows the games he has left or his contract, so they can sit above or below his chance.

Were 4-4 after 8 games
8% pushed out over results · of 504 coaches
Were in year 1, after 8 games
1% pushed out over results · of 521 coaches
The outcome
Pushed out over results — a firing, forced resignation, mutual parting or non-renewal, each read case by case. Leaving for a better job, or retiring on his own terms, doesn’t count.
Buyout
No figure on file for this coach. The salary database predates the last coaching carousel; a name mismatch is suppressed rather than misattributed.

How good is this number? Checked on every FBS coach from 2010 to 2025, with its percentages calibrated each season on earlier years only: they track what happened — coaches it put near 25% were out about a quarter of the time — and a version pricing the games left with the previous season’s ratings ranked jobs as well as the ranking this page used before. Each week it learns from coaches who were still on the job at that point, so a firing during the season counts. In the Boiling zone it has run a few points high. Every job, and the method.

Poach watch

This winter

1%chance he leaves this winter for a head-coaching job elsewhere, or an NFL coordinator jobSettled97th-highest of 132 FBS head coaches
0%50%+

Our poach model, on his record so far, the win chances for every game he has left, his program, his pay and his background. Ranked against the 132 FBS head coaches this season. The zone words describe the market’s interest; none of them says he is leaving.

What drives his number

The biggest factors in his profile, each against the typical FBS head coach today. The games he has left are priced into the number, not listed here.

  • ▼ Lower
    His first season at Iowa State
  • ▲ Higher
    No record for him here before this season · his first year in the job
  • ▼ Lower
    His team is 4-4, outscoring opponents by 1.8 points a game
How good is this number? It ranks a head coach who leaves for another head-coaching job ahead of one who stays 78 to 82% of the time, and its average came within a point of the share who actually left. What it can’t do

Tested on every FBS head coach from 2012 through 2025, each season scored by a model fit only on the seasons before it. From three games on, given one coach who left for a head-coaching job elsewhere or an NFL coordinator job and one who stayed, it ranked the one who left ahead 79 to 82% of the time; in a season’s first two games, 78%. Its average chance came within a point of the share who actually left. It counts a move a coach makes while he still holds the job; when his school ends it, that doesn’t count, even if another school then hires him.

  • The live number prices the games he has left with the power model’s ratings from this season. The test priced them with each team’s rating from the season before, because ratings made during past seasons were not kept, so this live version could not be replayed.
  • Programs new to FBS have no FBS record before this season in the data it reads, so their coaches are scored without one.
  • It is frozen: it learns nothing from 2026 until a deliberate refit.
  • A coach hired in December needs his background (age, alma mater, the state he was born in) added before his first game, or he shows as not rated.