Luke Fickell

Head coach · Wisconsin
4th season · since 2023 · Cincinnati before

At Wisconsin22-24since 2023 · 5-3 this seasonHot seatCool3% · 67th of 132 jobsLast gameL 0-30at Iowa · Oct 31Nextvs RutgersSat Nov 7 · 4:15 pm ET · BTN
This week · as of Wed Nov 4

5-3, on track for 8-4 in the regular season.

Now

Career arc

Stature score reached, by season of his head-coaching careerFBS medianOhio StateCincinnatiWisconsinMiami (OH)Miami (OH)MinnesotaMinnesotaDynastythe sport's summitBlue Bloodpermanent top tierPower Programperennial contenderNational Programrespectable, streakyRegional Programthe building-block levelOhio State when he took over: 76.7 (Blue Blood), its final 2010 readingtook overOhio State, 2011: 6-7, Blue BloodOhio State, 2011: 6-7, Blue Blood20116-7-3.2Cincinnati when he took over: 31.2 (National Program II), its final 2016 readingtook overCincinnati, 2017: 4-8, National Program IIICincinnati, 2017: 4-8, National Program III20174-8Cincinnati, 2018: 11-2, National Program III201811-2Cincinnati, 2019: 11-3, National Program III201911-3Cincinnati, 2020: 9-1, National Program II20209-1Cincinnati, 2021: 13-1, Power Program III202113-1Cincinnati, 2022: 9-3, Power Program IIICincinnati, 2022: 9-3, Power Program III20229-3+12.3Wisconsin when he took over: 52.7 (Power Program II), its final 2022 readingtook overWisconsin, 2023: 7-6, Power Program IIWisconsin, 2023: 7-6, Power Program II20237-6Wisconsin, 2024: 5-7, Power Program III20245-7Wisconsin, 2025: 4-8, Power Program III20254-8Wisconsin, 2026: 5-3, Power Program IIIWisconsin, 2026: 5-3, Power Program III20265-3-7.5best: 2011gray dashed: rival programs · ○ the program when he took over · Dashed segments are program changes — spacing is not proportional to calendar time

Bowls and playoffs: 2-4

Ohio State2011Gator BowlL 17-24Cincinnati2018Military BowlW 35-312019Birmingham BowlW 38-62020Peach BowlL 21-242021 semiCotton Bowl ClassicL 6-27Wisconsin2023ReliaQuest BowlL 31-35

This week Wed Nov 4

  • Last gameL 0-30 at Iowa Sat Oct 31
  • This season5-3
  • On track for8-4 regular season
  • Nextvs. Rutgers Sat Nov 7
  • Stature30th of 138 FBS programs

What the result changed

  • AP poll #25 → unranked out of the poll
  • Playoff odds 4% → 0.7% CFB Zeitgeist forecast, before and after

Saturday: vs. Rutgers

Sat Nov 7, 4:15 pm ET BTN · Rutgers is 2-6 · Fickell vs. Greg Schiano: 2-0 · Wisconsin’s chance to win: 89% (the site’s model)

Many stories this week →

The headlines, Nov 1–4 from several outlets

Offense: 80th of 138 per play. Defense: 4th.

Offense, per play80thOffense, starting field position22ndDefense, per play4thDefense, big plays allowed3rdWorstBest
Offense, per play80th of 138Offense, starting field position22nd of 138Defense, per play4th of 138Defense, big plays allowed3rd of 138WorstBest
Through 8 games. Each tick is an FBS team, adjusted for opponent strength (CFB Zeitgeist model); the dot is Wisconsin. The other two rows are where Wisconsin stands furthest from the middle. Early-season numbers move a lot.

4 games left

  1. Sat Nov 7vs. Rutgers (2-6)BTN89%
  2. Sat Nov 14at Maryland (2-6)83%
  3. Sat Nov 21at Purdue (3-5)72%
  4. Fri Nov 27vs. Minnesota (5-3)NBC62%

Percent: Wisconsin’s chance to win, from the site’s model. Records are through today. Networks as announced; the rest are set closer to kickoff.

How the season got here

Where Wisconsin stood among 138 FBS programs by stature after each game (1st is the highest; the CFB Zeitgeist ledger).

24th30th36thPreseason29thNotre Dame L 13-41Notre Dame L 13-41L 13-41Notre Dame29thWestern Illinois W 36-9Western Illinois W 36-9W 36-9Western Illin…29thEastern Michigan W 54-10Eastern Michigan W 54-10W 54-10Eastern Michi…31stPenn State W 24-20Penn State W 24-20W 24-20Penn State30thMichigan State W 31-3Michigan State W 31-3W 31-3Michigan State29thUCLA L 7-17UCLA L 7-17L 7-17UCLA29thUSC W 24-7USC W 24-7W 24-7USC31stIowa L 0-30Iowa L 0-30L 0-30Iowa28th
  1. Oct 26–Nov 1L 0-30 at Iowa19 headlines · 30th of 138Rohrer's Reaction: Luke Fickell Comes up Short When it Counts Yet Again Sports Illustrated
  2. Oct 19–25W 24-7 vs. USC12 headlines · 38th of 138Luke Fickell comments on Wisconsin football's upset win vs USC Yahoo Sports
  3. Oct 12–18L 7-17 at UCLA17 headlines · 24th of 138Everything Luke Fickell said after Wisconsin football’s loss at No. 12 UCLA Badger Observer
  4. Oct 5–11No game2 headlines · 70th of 138Has Wisconsin's Luke Fickell Officially Coached his Way off the Hot Seat? Sports Illustrated
  5. Sep 28–Oct 4W 31-3 vs. Michigan State22 headlines · 23rd of 1383 Luke Fickell Quotes That Matter Following Wisconsin's Demolition of Michigan State Yahoo Sports
  6. Sep 21–27 · rebuiltW 24-20 at Penn State16 headlines · 24th of 138Wisconsin overcomes 17-0 deficit to stun No. 13 Penn State in biggest win of Luke Fickell's tenure Yahoo Sports

Each week as this page showed it at the time. Weeks marked rebuilt came before this page existed: they were built afterward from only what was known by the end of that week.

Watch the biggest plays from Wisconsin’s games, ranked by how much each moved the chance to win.

Report card

Defense carries it: 84th percentile defense, below the median offense at 48th.

Wisconsin, every completed season graded against the whole field, then averaged.

Offense

C+
of which —48th
efficiency — 48th percentile success rate, 2023–25
C+48th
Standard-downs success
C41st
Passing-downs success
B+73rd
Trench push (line yards)
C-34th
Red-zone scoring rate
B-56th
Power-success (short yardage)
C+46th
Ball security (giveaways per game)

Defense

A
of which —84th
84th percentile SP+ defense, 2023–25
B62nd
Front-7 havoc
B62nd
Secondary havoc
B-50th
Stuff rate (run defense)
D15th
Takeaways per game

Each season is his team’s percentile among every team with that stat (the share it beat), averaged over his completed seasons here; a mid-season takeover year and the season in progress aren’t graded. Letters: A+ 90th percentile and up, A 80, B+ 70, B 60, B− 50, C+ 45, C 40, C− 30, D 15, F below.

Hot seat

See every job →

This season

3%chance he’s out by the end of this seasonCool67th-hottest of 132 FBS jobs
0%50%+

Our hot-seat model, on his record so far, the win chances for every game he has left, and his contract (a bigger buyout, relative to pay, makes a change costlier). Ranked against the 132 FBS head coaches with 3+ games this season.

Now cooler than at this point in 2025.

How his seat has moved, and why

His hot seat, week by week

The chance he’s out by the end of that season, as it stood after every week of his tenure here, by today’s model.

BoilingHotWarmCool20232024202520262023, week 3 (3 games in): <1%, 127th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2023, week 4 (4 games in): <1%, 131st-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 5 (4 games in): <1%, 129th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 6 (5 games in): <1%, 129th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 7 (6 games in): <1%, 127th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 8 (7 games in): <1%, 127th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 9 (8 games in): <1%, 126th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 10 (9 games in): <1%, 123rd-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 11 (10 games in): <1%, 118th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 12 (11 games in): <1%, 120th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 13 (12 games in): <1%, 121st-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 14 (12 games in): <1%, 121st-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 15 (12 games in): <1%, 121st-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2024, week 3 (3 games in): 2%, 73rd-hottest of 111 FBS jobs2024, week 4 (3 games in): 2%, 89th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 5 (4 games in): 2%, 90th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 6 (5 games in): 1%, 99th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 7 (6 games in): 1%, 105th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 8 (7 games in): 1%, 104th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 9 (8 games in): 1%, 101st-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 10 (9 games in): 1%, 99th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 11 (9 games in): 1%, 95th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 12 (10 games in): 1%, 91st-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 13 (11 games in): 1%, 84th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 14 (12 games in): 2%, 76th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 15 (12 games in): 2%, 76th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 16 (12 games in): 2%, 76th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2025, week 3 (3 games in): 11%, 34th-hottest of 118 FBS jobs2025, week 4 (4 games in): 14%, 35th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 5 (4 games in): 14%, 32nd-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 6 (5 games in): 18%, 29th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 7 (6 games in): 22%, 19th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 8 (7 games in): 21%, 22nd-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 9 (8 games in): 21%, 22nd-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 10 (8 games in): 21%, 22nd-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 11 (9 games in): 16%, 28th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 12 (10 games in): 15%, 29th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 13 (11 games in): 12%, 35th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 14 (12 games in): 14%, 30th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 15 (12 games in): 14%, 30th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 16 (12 games in): 14%, 30th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2026, week 3 (3 games in): 14%, 35th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2026, week 4 (4 games in): 8%, 54th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 5 (5 games in): 4%, 68th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 6 (5 games in): 4%, 71st-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 7 (6 games in): 4%, 71st-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 8 (7 games in): 2%, 83rd-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 9 (8 games in): 3%, 72nd-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 10 (8 games in): 3%, 67th-hottest of 132 FBS jobsnowHottest: 2025, week 7▲ 2-4, outscored by 43Every season ended Cool, 2023–2024

Hottest: 2025, week 7 (22%, 19th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs that week). Top factor: ▲ Hotter 2-4, outscored by 43

Earlier seasons price the games left with power ratings rebuilt after those seasons ended · he took over during the 2022 season (1 game); that year is unrated, since each season counts against whoever started it.

What drives his number

The biggest factors, each against the typical FBS job today.

  • ▼ Cooler
    5-3, outscoring opponents by 52 · AP-ranked
  • ▲ Hotter
    9-15 over his previous two seasons here
  • ▲ Hotter
    Year 4 · tenure, which this model overrates
    (why?)

    Tenure is one of this model’s strongest inputs, but its weight was set when retirements like Nick Saban’s and Bob Stoops’ still counted as being pushed out, so it overstates how much tenure matters.

What happened to coaches like him, 2004–2025

A different comparison: past coaches, not today’s, grouped by one fact at a time. Neither line knows the games he has left or his contract, so they can sit above or below his chance.

Were 5-3 after 8 games
5% pushed out over results · of 502 coaches
Were in years 3-4, after 8 games
13% pushed out over results · of 754 coaches
The outcome
Pushed out over results — a firing, forced resignation, mutual parting or non-renewal, each read case by case. Leaving for a better job, or retiring on his own terms, doesn’t count.
Buyout
$27,493,333 USA Today estimate (Oct. 2025) — not a disclosed figure · 3.5× total pay · a large buyout, which lowers his chance of being let go · without it: 5%

How good is this number? Checked on every FBS coach from 2010 to 2025, with its percentages calibrated each season on earlier years only: they track what happened — coaches it put near 25% were out about a quarter of the time — and a version pricing the games left with the previous season’s ratings ranked jobs as well as the ranking this page used before. Each week it learns from coaches who were still on the job at that point, so a firing during the season counts. In the Boiling zone it has run a few points high. Every job, and the method.

Poach watch

This winter

2%chance he leaves this winter for a head-coaching job elsewhere, or an NFL coordinator jobSettled78th-highest of 132 FBS head coaches
0%50%+

Our poach model, on his record so far, the win chances for every game he has left, his program, his pay and his background. Ranked against the 132 FBS head coaches this season. The zone words describe the market’s interest; none of them says he is leaving.

What drives his number

The biggest factors in his profile, each against the typical FBS head coach today. The games he has left are priced into the number, not listed here.

  • ▲ Higher
    His 4th season at Wisconsin
  • ▼ Lower
    9-15 over his previous two seasons here
  • ▼ Lower
    Paid $7.8 million in 2025, the 83rd percentile of published FBS head-coach pay · up 1% on the season before
How good is this number? It ranks a head coach who leaves for another head-coaching job ahead of one who stays 78 to 82% of the time, and its average came within a point of the share who actually left. What it can’t do

Tested on every FBS head coach from 2012 through 2025, each season scored by a model fit only on the seasons before it. From three games on, given one coach who left for a head-coaching job elsewhere or an NFL coordinator job and one who stayed, it ranked the one who left ahead 79 to 82% of the time; in a season’s first two games, 78%. Its average chance came within a point of the share who actually left. It counts a move a coach makes while he still holds the job; when his school ends it, that doesn’t count, even if another school then hires him.

  • The live number prices the games he has left with the power model’s ratings from this season. The test priced them with each team’s rating from the season before, because ratings made during past seasons were not kept, so this live version could not be replayed.
  • Programs new to FBS have no FBS record before this season in the data it reads, so their coaches are scored without one.
  • It is frozen: it learns nothing from 2026 until a deliberate refit.
  • A coach hired in December needs his background (age, alma mater, the state he was born in) added before his first game, or he shows as not rated.