This week · as of Wed Nov 4

5-3, lost 3 straight, on track for 7-5 in the regular season.

Now

Career arc

Stature score reached, by season of his head-coaching careerFBS medianTempleBaylorNebraskaTCUTCUIowaIowaPower Programperennial contenderNational Programrespectable, streakyRegional Programthe building-block levelTemple when he took over: 19.5 (Regional Program II), its final 2012 readingtook overTemple, 2013: 2-10, Regional Program IITemple, 2013: 2-10, Regional Program II20132-10Temple, 2014: 6-6, Regional Program II20146-6Temple, 2015: 10-4, Regional Program II201510-4Temple, 2016: 10-3, National Program IIITemple, 2016: 10-3, National Program III201610-3+8.4Baylor when he took over: 45.1 (Power Program III), its final 2016 readingtook overBaylor, 2017: 1-11, National Program IBaylor, 2017: 1-11, National Program I20171-11Baylor, 2018: 7-6, National Program I20187-6Baylor, 2019: 11-3, National Program IBaylor, 2019: 11-3, National Program I201911-3-4.2Nebraska when he took over: 39.1 (National Program I), its final 2022 readingtook overNebraska, 2023: 5-7, National Program IINebraska, 2023: 5-7, National Program II20235-7Nebraska, 2024: 7-6, National Program II20247-6Nebraska, 2025: 7-6, National Program II20257-6Nebraska, 2026: 5-3, National Program IINebraska, 2026: 5-3, National Program II20265-3-3.1best: 2019gray dashed: rival programs · ○ the program when he took over · Dashed segments are program changes — spacing is not proportional to calendar time

Bowls and playoffs: 2-3

Temple2015Boca Raton BowlL 17-32Baylor2018Texas BowlW 45-382019Sugar BowlL 14-26Nebraska2024Pinstripe BowlW 20-152025Las Vegas BowlL 22-44

This week Wed Nov 4

  • Last gameL 10-17 vs. Washington Sat Oct 31
  • This season5-3 lost 3 straight
  • On track for7-5 regular season
  • Nextat Illinois Fri Nov 6
  • Stature37th of 138 FBS programs

What the result changed

  • Playoff odds 5% → 0.8% CFB Zeitgeist forecast, before and after

Friday: at Illinois

Fri Nov 6, 8 pm ET FOX · Illinois is 5-3 · Rhule vs. Bret Bielema: 1-1 · Nebraska’s chance to win: 76% (the site’s model)

His week

I'm Steady in the Boat”

Matt Rhule Says No Coordinator Changes Will Be Made

Sports Illustrated headline · Mon Nov 2
Not the recipe to win”

Coach Rhule discusses what happened following loss to Washington

KETV headline · Sun Nov 1

Dozens of stories this week →

The headlines, Nov 1–4 from many outlets

On the podcasts

Fans are frustrated with Nebraska

Matt Rhule is laying the ground work He won't be here after this year , crazy Nebraska fans.

ThotDoc's Brain Droppings on the Washington Game Here are the dreary Droppings. Lots of questions and not many answers. Brain Droppings

Feel our pain via spreadsheet How many more Stalingrads can we endure... submitted by /u/BrightPineapple [link] [comments]

Fan mood · last 3 weeks · more negative than 3 in 4 FBS fan bases

Offense: 32nd of 138 per play. Defense: 32nd.

Offense, per play32ndOffense, points per trip inside the 408thDefense, per play32ndDefense, points allowed per trip inside the 408thWorstBest
Offense, per play32nd of 138Offense, points per trip inside the 408th of 138Defense, per play32nd of 138Defense, points allowed per trip inside the 408th of 138WorstBest
Through 8 games. Each tick is an FBS team, adjusted for opponent strength (CFB Zeitgeist model); the dot is Nebraska. The other two rows are where Nebraska stands furthest from the middle. Early-season numbers move a lot.

4 games left

  1. Fri Nov 6at Illinois (5-3)FOX76%
  2. Sat Nov 14at Rutgers (2-6)89%
  3. Sat Nov 21vs. Ohio State (6-2)28%
  4. Fri Nov 27at Iowa (6-2)CBS40%

Percent: Nebraska’s chance to win, from the site’s model. Records are through today. Networks as announced; the rest are set closer to kickoff.

How the season got here

Where Nebraska stood among 138 FBS programs by stature after each game (1st is the highest; the CFB Zeitgeist ledger).

34th40th46thPreseason42ndOhio W 49-21Ohio W 49-21W 49-21Ohio42ndBowling Green W 56-7Bowling Green W 56-7W 56-7Bowling Green42ndNorth Dakota W 34-7North Dakota W 34-7W 34-7North Dakota42ndMichigan State W 31-13Michigan State W 31-13W 31-13Michigan State41stMaryland W 48-23Maryland W 48-23W 48-23Maryland41stIndiana L 17-20Indiana L 17-20L 17-20Indiana39thOregon L 14-17Oregon L 14-17L 14-17Oregon37thWashington L 10-17Washington L 10-17L 10-17Washington37th
  1. Oct 26–Nov 1L 10-17 vs. Washington16 headlines · 33rd of 138Anthony Colandrea re-signs with Nebraska: Huskers QB commits for 2027 after Matt Rhule calls out SEC poachers CBS Sports“Not the recipe to win”Coach Rhule discusses what happened following loss to Washington, Nov 1
  2. Oct 19–25No game20 headlines · 23rd of 138Does Matt Rhule still trust his Nebraska team after 2 weeks of heartbreak? The New York Times“Two Plays Away from Being a Top 10 Team”Matt Rhule Addresses Nebraska's Back-to-Back Losses, Oct 19
  3. Oct 12–18L 14-17 at Oregon7 headlines · 45th of 138Matt Rhule Changes Nebraska’s Routine for Unusual Oregon Challenge Sports Illustrated
  4. Oct 5–11L 17-20 vs. Indiana24 headlines · 16th of 138Matt Rhule Refuses to Seek National Validation as Nebraska’s Heartbreak vs. Indiana Exposes Issues: “Not Worried” Yahoo Sports
  5. Sep 28–Oct 4W 48-23 vs. Maryland15 headlines · 30th of 138Nebraska Football Head Coach Matt Rhule's opening statement on Maryland game WOWT
  6. Sep 21–27 · rebuiltW 31-13 at Michigan State13 headlines · 30th of 138To beat Big Ten defenses, Matt Rhule hired 'savant' Rob Aurich to join them — and then some Omaha World-Herald

Each week as this page showed it at the time. Weeks marked rebuilt came before this page existed: they were built afterward from only what was known by the end of that week.

Watch the biggest plays from Nebraska’s games, ranked by how much each moved the chance to win.

Report card

Defense carries it: 84th percentile defense, above the median offense at 63rd.

Nebraska, every completed season graded against the whole field, then averaged.

Offense

B
of which —63rd
efficiency — 63rd percentile success rate, 2023–25
B61st
Standard-downs success
B-58th
Passing-downs success
A81st
Trench push (line yards)
D27th
Red-zone scoring rate
B67th
Power-success (short yardage)
C+46th
Ball security (giveaways per game)

Defense

A
of which —84th
84th percentile SP+ defense, 2023–25
A87th
Front-7 havoc
B+76th
Secondary havoc
C-31st
Stuff rate (run defense)
D28th
Takeaways per game

Each season is his team’s percentile among every team with that stat (the share it beat), averaged over his completed seasons here; a mid-season takeover year and the season in progress aren’t graded. Letters: A+ 90th percentile and up, A 80, B+ 70, B 60, B− 50, C+ 45, C 40, C− 30, D 15, F below.

Poach watch

This winter

13%chance he leaves this winter for a head-coaching job elsewhere, or an NFL coordinator jobNoticed10th-highest of 132 FBS head coaches
0%50%+

Our poach model, on his record so far, the win chances for every game he has left, his program, his pay and his background. Ranked against the 132 FBS head coaches this season. The zone words describe the market’s interest; none of them says he is leaving.

What drives his number

The biggest factors in his profile, each against the typical FBS head coach today. The games he has left are priced into the number, not listed here.

  • ▲ Higher
    Age 51 · neither at his alma mater nor in the state he was born in, a former NFL head coach
  • ▲ Higher
    His 4th season at Nebraska
  • ▼ Lower
    Paid $8.5 million in 2025, the 88th percentile of published FBS head-coach pay · up 31% on the season before
How good is this number? It ranks a head coach who leaves for another head-coaching job ahead of one who stays 78 to 82% of the time, and its average came within a point of the share who actually left. What it can’t do

Tested on every FBS head coach from 2012 through 2025, each season scored by a model fit only on the seasons before it. From three games on, given one coach who left for a head-coaching job elsewhere or an NFL coordinator job and one who stayed, it ranked the one who left ahead 79 to 82% of the time; in a season’s first two games, 78%. Its average chance came within a point of the share who actually left. It counts a move a coach makes while he still holds the job; when his school ends it, that doesn’t count, even if another school then hires him.

  • The live number prices the games he has left with the power model’s ratings from this season. The test priced them with each team’s rating from the season before, because ratings made during past seasons were not kept, so this live version could not be replayed.
  • Programs new to FBS have no FBS record before this season in the data it reads, so their coaches are scored without one.
  • It is frozen: it learns nothing from 2026 until a deliberate refit.
  • A coach hired in December needs his background (age, alma mater, the state he was born in) added before his first game, or he shows as not rated.