Michael Desormeaux

Head coach · Louisiana
5th season · since 2022

At Louisiana34-28since 2022 · 5-3 this seasonHot seatCool5% · 53rd of 132 jobsLast gameL 31-35at Southern Miss · Oct 24Nextvs South AlabamaSat Nov 7 · 5 pm ET
This week · as of Wed Nov 4

5-3, on track for 8-4 in the regular season.

Now

Career arc

Stature score reached, by season of his head-coaching careerFBS medianLouisianaUL MonroeUL MonroeNational Programrespectable, streakyRegional Programthe building-block levelLouisiana when he took over: 27.3 (National Program III), its final 2021 readingtook overLouisiana, 2022: 6-7, National Program IIILouisiana, 2022: 6-7, National Program III20226-7Louisiana, 2023: 6-7, National Program III20236-7Louisiana, 2024: 10-4, National Program III202410-4Louisiana, 2025: 6-7, Regional Program I20256-7Louisiana, 2026: 5-3, Regional Program ILouisiana, 2026: 5-3, Regional Program I20265-3-1.9best: 2022gray dashed: rival programs · ○ the program when he took over · Dashed segments are program changes — spacing is not proportional to calendar time

Bowls and playoffs: 1-4

2021New Orleans BowlW 36-212022Independence BowlL 16-232023New Orleans BowlL 31-342024New Mexico BowlL 3-34202568 Ventures BowlL 13-20

This week Wed Nov 4

  • Last gameL 31-35 at Southern Miss Sat Oct 24
  • This season5-3
  • Hot seat5% 53rd of 132
  • On track for8-4 regular season
  • Nextvs. South Alabama Sat Nov 7
  • Stature69th of 138 FBS programs

What the result changed

  • Playoff odds 2% → 0.3% CFB Zeitgeist forecast, before and after

Win and he’s at 5%. Lose and he’s at 8%.

vs. South Alabama, Sat Nov 7, 5 pm ET ESPN+ · South Alabama is 4-4 · Desormeaux vs. Major Applewhite: 1-1 · Louisiana’s chance to win: 81% (the site’s model)

CoolWarmHotBoilingIf Louisiana wins: 5%, 60th of 132Now: 5%If Louisiana loses: 8%, 41st of 1320%50%+
CoolWarmHotBoiling0%50%+
  • If Louisiana wins: 5%, 60th of 132
  • Now: 5%
  • If Louisiana loses: 8%, 41st of 132
His chance of being out after the season, now and after Saturday. Each tick is an FBS head coach’s number today; ranks are against today’s field. From the site’s hot-seat model.

Is he getting fired?

5% chance he’s out after the season · 53rd of 132 FBS head coaches · Cool

Coolunder 10%Warm10–20%Hot20–35%Boiling35% upNow3% had they won3% had they wonLoss 8%Win 5%4%5%6%4%3%3%5%3%5%Pre1W vs. LamarW2L at USCL3W vs. UABW4W at CharlotteW5W vs. Arkansas StateW6L at Louisiana TechL7W vs. TroyW8L at Southern MissL9Chance to win vs. South Alabama81%10Chance to win at UL Monroe96%11Chance to win vs. Coastal Carolina88%12Chance to win at Georgia State82%Game number. Under each game: the result, or his team’s chance to win it
CoolWarmHotBoilingNow3% had they wonLoss 8%Win 5%4%5%Pre368912Game
Dark line: his number after each game; a small dot just before a game is where it stood at kickoff, after other results moved it. Gray: where it could go, 8 seasons in 10 (darker, the middle half). The hollow dot: had his last game gone the other way. From the site’s hot-seat model.

If he finishes…

Bar: how likely that finish isNumber: his chance of being out

  1. 7-510%
  2. 8-46%
  3. 9-33%
Why his number is where it is

Our hot-seat model, on his record so far, the win chances for every game he has left, and his contract (a bigger buyout, relative to pay, makes a change costlier). Ranked against the 132 FBS head coaches with 3+ games this season.

Now cooler than at this point in 2025.

His hot seat, week by week

The chance he’s out by the end of that season, as it stood after every week of his tenure here, by today’s model.

BoilingHotWarmCool202220232024202520262022, week 3 (3 games in): 1%, 108th-hottest of 125 FBS jobs2022, week 4 (4 games in): 1%, 106th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 5 (5 games in): 1%, 104th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 6 (5 games in): 1%, 104th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 7 (6 games in): 1%, 109th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 8 (7 games in): 1%, 107th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 9 (8 games in): 1%, 104th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 10 (9 games in): 1%, 102nd-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 11 (10 games in): 1%, 104th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 12 (11 games in): <1%, 103rd-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 13 (12 games in): <1%, 103rd-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 14 (12 games in): <1%, 103rd-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 15 (12 games in): <1%, 103rd-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2023, week 3 (3 games in): 7%, 53rd-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2023, week 4 (4 games in): 6%, 61st-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 5 (5 games in): 7%, 57th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 6 (6 games in): 6%, 61st-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 7 (6 games in): 6%, 63rd-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 8 (7 games in): 7%, 60th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 9 (8 games in): 5%, 62nd-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 10 (9 games in): 7%, 55th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 11 (10 games in): 9%, 50th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 12 (11 games in): 9%, 48th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 13 (12 games in): 7%, 50th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 14 (12 games in): 7%, 50th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 15 (12 games in): 7%, 50th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2024, week 4 (3 games in): 15%, 32nd-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 5 (4 games in): 11%, 43rd-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 6 (5 games in): 9%, 48th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 7 (6 games in): 7%, 52nd-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 8 (7 games in): 4%, 61st-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 9 (7 games in): 4%, 60th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 10 (8 games in): 3%, 72nd-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 11 (9 games in): 2%, 76th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 12 (10 games in): 3%, 68th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 13 (11 games in): 2%, 75th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 14 (12 games in): 2%, 75th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 15 (12 games in): 2%, 75th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 16 (12 games in): 2%, 75th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2025, week 3 (3 games in): 25%, 11th-hottest of 118 FBS jobs2025, week 4 (4 games in): 33%, 7th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 5 (5 games in): 28%, 10th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 6 (5 games in): 28%, 10th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 7 (6 games in): 30%, 10th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 8 (7 games in): 34%, 8th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 9 (8 games in): 33%, 9th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 10 (9 games in): 28%, 12th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 11 (10 games in): 22%, 20th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 12 (10 games in): 22%, 20th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 13 (11 games in): 18%, 25th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 14 (12 games in): 16%, 27th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 15 (12 games in): 16%, 27th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 16 (12 games in): 16%, 27th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2026, week 3 (3 games in): 4%, 64th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2026, week 4 (4 games in): 3%, 80th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 5 (5 games in): 3%, 78th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 6 (6 games in): 5%, 68th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 7 (7 games in): 3%, 76th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 8 (8 games in): 6%, 61st-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 9 (8 games in): 6%, 57th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 10 (8 games in): 5%, 53rd-hottest of 132 FBS jobsnowHottest: 2025, week 8▲ 2-5, outscored by 42Every season ended Cool, 2022–2024

Hottest: 2025, week 8 (34%, 8th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs that week). Top factor: ▲ Hotter 2-5, outscored by 42

Earlier seasons price the games left with power ratings rebuilt after those seasons ended · he took over during the 2021 season (1 game); that year is unrated, since each season counts against whoever started it.

What drives his number

The biggest factors, each against the typical FBS job today.

  • ▲ Hotter
    $1.8M buyout (USA Today estimate) · 1.9× his pay, a multiple among the smallest in FBS — cheap to move on
  • ▲ Hotter
    Year 5 · tenure, which this model overrates
    (why?)

    Tenure is one of this model’s strongest inputs, but its weight was set when retirements like Nick Saban’s and Bob Stoops’ still counted as being pushed out, so it overstates how much tenure matters.

  • ▼ Cooler
    5-3, outscoring opponents by 71

What happened to coaches like him, 2004–2025

A different comparison: past coaches, not today’s, grouped by one fact at a time. Neither line knows the games he has left or his contract, so they can sit above or below his chance.

Were 5-3 after 8 games
5% pushed out over results · of 502 coaches
Were in years 5-9, after 8 games
14% pushed out over results · of 700 coaches
The outcome
Pushed out over results — a firing, forced resignation, mutual parting or non-renewal, each read case by case. Leaving for a better job, or retiring on his own terms, doesn’t count.
Buyout
$1,847,708 USA Today estimate (Oct. 2025) — not a disclosed figure · 1.9× total pay · a small buyout, which raises his chance of being let go · without it: 2%

How good is this number? Checked on every FBS coach from 2010 to 2025, with its percentages calibrated each season on earlier years only: they track what happened — coaches it put near 25% were out about a quarter of the time — and a version pricing the games left with the previous season’s ratings ranked jobs as well as the ranking this page used before. Each week it learns from coaches who were still on the job at that point, so a firing during the season counts. In the Boiling zone it has run a few points high. Every job, and the method.

His week

Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns · 314 views by Wednesday

More of him this week

Press conference, South Alabama weekMon Nov 2 · Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns · 238 views by Wednesday

No headlines named him in the last 7 days

The headlines, Oct 25–Nov 4

What they are talking about, week and season

Offense: 67th of 138 per play. Defense: 11th.

Offense, per play67thOffense, starting field position13thDefense, per play11thRun defense2ndWorstBest
Offense, per play67th of 138Offense, starting field position13th of 138Defense, per play11th of 138Run defense2nd of 138WorstBest
Through 8 games. Each tick is an FBS team, adjusted for opponent strength (CFB Zeitgeist model); the dot is Louisiana. The other two rows are where Louisiana stands furthest from the middle. Early-season numbers move a lot.

4 games left

  1. Sat Nov 7vs. South Alabama (4-4)ESPN+81%
  2. Thu Nov 12at UL Monroe (1-7)ESPN296%
  3. Sat Nov 21vs. Coastal Carolina (3-5)88%
  4. Sat Nov 28at Georgia State (4-4)82%

Percent: Louisiana’s chance to win, from the site’s model. Records are through today. Networks as announced; the rest are set closer to kickoff.

How the season got here

Where Louisiana stood among 138 FBS programs by stature after each game (1st is the highest; the CFB Zeitgeist ledger).

70th76th82ndPreseason78thLamar W 38-7Lamar W 38-7W 38-7Lamar78thUSC L 30-49USC L 30-49L 30-49USC77thUAB W 21-14UAB W 21-14W 21-14UAB75thCharlotte W 34-7Charlotte W 34-7W 34-7Charlotte75thArkansas State W 23-20Arkansas State W 23-20W 23-20Arkansas State73rdLouisiana Tech L 31-32Louisiana Tech L 31-32L 31-32Louisiana Tech74thTroy W 33-6Troy W 33-6W 33-6Troy73rdSouthern Miss L 31-35Southern Miss L 31-35L 31-35Southern Miss73rd
  1. Oct 26–Nov 1No game1 headline · 87th of 138Is Louisiana football, Michael Desormeaux playing this week? The Daily Advertiser
  2. Oct 19–25L 31-35 at Southern Miss0 headlines
  3. Oct 12–18W 33-6 vs. Troy1 headline · 82nd of 138
  4. Oct 5–11L 31-32 at Louisiana Tech0 headlines
  5. Sep 28–Oct 4W 23-20 vs. Arkansas State1 headline · 82nd of 138
  6. Sep 21–27 · rebuiltW 34-7 at Charlotte0 headlines

Each week as this page showed it at the time. Weeks marked rebuilt came before this page existed: they were built afterward from only what was known by the end of that week.

Watch the biggest plays from Louisiana’s games, ranked by how much each moved the chance to win.

Report card

Offense carries it: 58th percentile offense, below the median defense at 38th.

Louisiana, every completed season graded against the whole field, then averaged.

Offense

B-
of which —58th
efficiency — 58th percentile success rate, 2022–25
B-59th
Standard-downs success
C43rd
Passing-downs success
B+70th
Trench push (line yards)
B-54th
Red-zone scoring rate
B-52nd
Power-success (short yardage)
B-53rd
Ball security (giveaways per game)

Defense

C-
of which —38th
38th percentile SP+ defense, 2022–25
B61st
Front-7 havoc
B+70th
Secondary havoc
D18th
Stuff rate (run defense)
B+71st
Takeaways per game

Each season is his team’s percentile among every team with that stat (the share it beat), averaged over his completed seasons here; a mid-season takeover year and the season in progress aren’t graded. Letters: A+ 90th percentile and up, A 80, B+ 70, B 60, B− 50, C+ 45, C 40, C− 30, D 15, F below.

Poach watch

This winter

5%chance he leaves this winter for a head-coaching job elsewhere, or an NFL coordinator jobSettled40th-highest of 132 FBS head coaches
0%50%+

Our poach model, on his record so far, the win chances for every game he has left, his program, his pay and his background. Ranked against the 132 FBS head coaches this season. The zone words describe the market’s interest; none of them says he is leaving.

What drives his number

The biggest factors in his profile, each against the typical FBS head coach today. The games he has left are priced into the number, not listed here.

  • ▼ Lower
    Age 41 · coaching at his alma mater, in the state he was born in
  • ▲ Higher
    His team is 5-3, outscoring opponents by 8.9 points a game
  • ▲ Higher
    Paid $986,400 in 2025, the 23rd percentile of published FBS head-coach pay · up 28% on the season before
How good is this number? It ranks a head coach who leaves for another head-coaching job ahead of one who stays 78 to 82% of the time, and its average came within a point of the share who actually left. What it can’t do

Tested on every FBS head coach from 2012 through 2025, each season scored by a model fit only on the seasons before it. From three games on, given one coach who left for a head-coaching job elsewhere or an NFL coordinator job and one who stayed, it ranked the one who left ahead 79 to 82% of the time; in a season’s first two games, 78%. Its average chance came within a point of the share who actually left. It counts a move a coach makes while he still holds the job; when his school ends it, that doesn’t count, even if another school then hires him.

  • The live number prices the games he has left with the power model’s ratings from this season. The test priced them with each team’s rating from the season before, because ratings made during past seasons were not kept, so this live version could not be replayed.
  • Programs new to FBS have no FBS record before this season in the data it reads, so their coaches are scored without one.
  • It is frozen: it learns nothing from 2026 until a deliberate refit.
  • A coach hired in December needs his background (age, alma mater, the state he was born in) added before his first game, or he shows as not rated.