This week · as of Wed Nov 4

6-2, on track for 9-3 in the regular season.

Now

Career arc

Bowls and playoffs: 2-1

2025CFP first roundW 41-102025 QFSugar BowlW 39-342025 semiFiesta BowlL 27-31

This week Wed Nov 4

  • Last gameW 45-15 vs. Auburn Sat Oct 31
  • This season6-2
  • On track for9-3 regular season
  • Nextvs. Georgia Sat Nov 7
  • Stature14th of 138 FBS programs

What the result changed

  • Playoff odds 41% → 51% CFB Zeitgeist forecast, before and after

Saturday: vs. Georgia

Sat Nov 7, 7:30 pm ET ABC · No. 2 Georgia is 7-1 · Golding vs. Kirby Smart (not counting 2 games in seasons either team changed coaches) · Ole Miss’s chance to win: 47% (the site’s model)

His week

Many stories this week →

The headlines, Nov 1–4 from several outlets

On the podcasts

Offense: 17th of 138 per play. Defense: 81st.

Offense, per play17thRunning offense8thDefense, per play81stDefense, points allowed per trip inside the 4046thWorstBest
Offense, per play17th of 138Running offense8th of 138Defense, per play81st of 138Defense, points allowed per trip inside the 4046th of 138WorstBest
Through 8 games. Each tick is an FBS team, adjusted for opponent strength (CFB Zeitgeist model); the dot is Ole Miss. The other two rows are where Ole Miss stands furthest from the middle. Early-season numbers move a lot.

4 games left

  1. Sat Nov 7vs. Georgia (7-1)ABC47%
  2. Sat Nov 14at Oklahoma (4-4)76%
  3. Sat Nov 21vs. Wofford (5-4)SECN+99%
  4. Fri Nov 27vs. Mississippi State (4-4)ABC93%

Percent: Ole Miss’s chance to win, from the site’s model. Records are through today. Networks as announced; the rest are set closer to kickoff.

How the season got here

Ole Miss has held at 14th of 138 FBS programs by stature after every game this season.

  1. Oct 26–Nov 1W 45-15 vs. Auburn25 headlines · 24th of 138Pete Golding gives Luke Ferrelli, Jalyn Crawford injury updates after Ole Miss-Auburn The Clarion-Ledger
  2. Oct 19–25L 27-34 at Texas13 headlines · 35th of 138What Pete Golding, Trinidad Chambliss said after Ole Miss football loss at Texas The Clarion-Ledger
  3. Oct 12–18W 31-3 vs. Missouri12 headlines · 30th of 138Pete Golding is Giving Ole Miss a Tougher Identity and Fans Are Noticing Sports Illustrated
  4. Oct 5–11W 52-17 at Vanderbilt15 headlines · 30th of 138How Pete Golding fixed Ole Miss defense vs Vanderbilt without changing anything The Clarion-Ledger
  5. Sep 28–Oct 4No game4 headlines · 68th of 138Pete Golding Hints Ole Miss Could Make Personnel Changes During Bye Week Yahoo Sports
  6. Sep 21–27 · rebuiltL 28-52 at Florida21 headlines · 20th of 138Pete Golding questions Ole Miss defense's manhood after Florida runs over Rebels Yahoo Sports

Each week as this page showed it at the time. Weeks marked rebuilt came before this page existed: they were built afterward from only what was known by the end of that week.

Watch the biggest plays from Ole Miss’s games, ranked by how much each moved the chance to win.

This season

<1%chance he’s out by the end of this seasonCool113th-hottest of 132 FBS jobs
0%50%+

Our hot-seat model, on his record so far, the win chances for every game he has left, and his contract (a bigger buyout, relative to pay, makes a change costlier). Ranked against the 132 FBS head coaches with 3+ games this season.

His first rated season here.

His hot seat, week by week

The chance he’s out by the end of that season, as it stood after every week of his tenure here, by today’s model.

BoilingHotWarmCool20262026, week 3 (3 games in): 1%, 112th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2026, week 4 (4 games in): 1%, 104th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 5 (4 games in): 1%, 101st-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 6 (5 games in): 1%, 106th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 7 (6 games in): <1%, 121st-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 8 (7 games in): <1%, 115th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 9 (8 games in): <1%, 118th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 10 (8 games in): <1%, 113th-hottest of 132 FBS jobsnow

He took over during the 2025 season (3 games); that year is unrated, since each season counts against whoever started it.

What drives his number

The biggest factors, each against the typical FBS job today.

  • ▼ Cooler
    Year 1 · tenure, which this model overrates
    (why?)

    Tenure is one of this model’s strongest inputs, but its weight was set when retirements like Nick Saban’s and Bob Stoops’ still counted as being pushed out, so it overstates how much tenure matters.

  • ▼ Cooler
    6-2, outscoring opponents by 105 · AP-ranked
  • ▼ Cooler
    2-1 over his previous season here

What happened to coaches like him, 2004–2025

A different comparison: past coaches, not today’s, grouped by one fact at a time. Neither line knows the games he has left or his contract, so they can sit above or below his chance.

Were 6-2 after 8 games
2% pushed out over results · of 389 coaches
Were in year 1, after 8 games
1% pushed out over results · of 521 coaches
The outcome
Pushed out over results — a firing, forced resignation, mutual parting or non-renewal, each read case by case. Leaving for a better job, or retiring on his own terms, doesn’t count.
Buyout
No figure on file for this coach. The salary database predates the last coaching carousel; a name mismatch is suppressed rather than misattributed.

How good is this number? Checked on every FBS coach from 2010 to 2025, with its percentages calibrated each season on earlier years only: they track what happened — coaches it put near 25% were out about a quarter of the time — and a version pricing the games left with the previous season’s ratings ranked jobs as well as the ranking this page used before. Each week it learns from coaches who were still on the job at that point, so a firing during the season counts. In the Boiling zone it has run a few points high. Every job, and the method.

Poach watch

This winter

1%chance he leaves this winter for a head-coaching job elsewhere, or an NFL coordinator jobSettled90th-highest of 132 FBS head coaches
0%50%+

Our poach model, on his record so far, the win chances for every game he has left, his program, his pay and his background. Ranked against the 132 FBS head coaches this season. The zone words describe the market’s interest; none of them says he is leaving.

What drives his number

The biggest factors in his profile, each against the typical FBS head coach today. The games he has left are priced into the number, not listed here.

  • ▼ Lower
    His first season at Ole Miss
  • ▲ Higher
    Age 42 · neither at his alma mater nor in the state he was born in
  • ▼ Lower
    A Power Four program · 90th percentile of FBS in program stature last season
How good is this number? It ranks a head coach who leaves for another head-coaching job ahead of one who stays 78 to 82% of the time, and its average came within a point of the share who actually left. What it can’t do

Tested on every FBS head coach from 2012 through 2025, each season scored by a model fit only on the seasons before it. From three games on, given one coach who left for a head-coaching job elsewhere or an NFL coordinator job and one who stayed, it ranked the one who left ahead 79 to 82% of the time; in a season’s first two games, 78%. Its average chance came within a point of the share who actually left. It counts a move a coach makes while he still holds the job; when his school ends it, that doesn’t count, even if another school then hires him.

  • The live number prices the games he has left with the power model’s ratings from this season. The test priced them with each team’s rating from the season before, because ratings made during past seasons were not kept, so this live version could not be replayed.
  • Programs new to FBS have no FBS record before this season in the data it reads, so their coaches are scored without one.
  • It is frozen: it learns nothing from 2026 until a deliberate refit.
  • A coach hired in December needs his background (age, alma mater, the state he was born in) added before his first game, or he shows as not rated.