Scott Satterfield

Head coach · Cincinnati
4th season · since 2023 · Louisville before

At Cincinnati20-25since 2023 · 5-3 this seasonHot seatCool9% · 40th of 132 jobsLast gameL 25-49vs Utah · Oct 31Nextat HoustonSat Nov 7 · 3:30 pm ET · FOX
This week · as of Wed Nov 4

5-3, on track for 7-5 in the regular season.

Now

Career arc

Stature score reached, by season of his head-coaching careerFBS medianApp StateLouisvilleCincinnatiGeorgia SouthernGeorgia SouthernKentuckyKentuckyMiami (OH)Miami (OH)Power Programperennial contenderNational Programrespectable, streakyRegional Programthe building-block levelApp State, 2014: 7-5, Regional Program IApp State, 2014: 7-5, Regional Program I20147-5App State, 2015: 11-2, Regional Program I201511-2App State, 2016: 10-3, National Program III201610-3App State, 2017: 9-4, National Program III20179-4App State, 2018: 10-2, National Program IIApp State, 2018: 10-2, National Program II201810-2Louisville when he took over: 41.8 (Power Program III), its final 2018 readingtook overLouisville, 2019: 8-5, National Program ILouisville, 2019: 8-5, National Program I20198-5Louisville, 2020: 4-7, National Program I20204-7Louisville, 2021: 6-7, National Program I20216-7Louisville, 2022: 7-5, National Program ILouisville, 2022: 7-5, National Program I20227-5+0.7Cincinnati when he took over: 46.5 (Power Program III), its final 2022 readingtook overCincinnati, 2023: 3-9, National Program ICincinnati, 2023: 3-9, National Program I20233-9Cincinnati, 2024: 5-7, National Program II20245-7Cincinnati, 2025: 7-6, National Program II20257-6Cincinnati, 2026: 5-3, National Program IICincinnati, 2026: 5-3, National Program II20265-3-11.5best: 2022gray dashed: rival programs · ○ the program when he took over · Dashed segments are program changes — spacing is not proportional to calendar time

Bowls and playoffs: 4-2

App State2015Camellia BowlW 31-292016Camellia BowlW 31-282017Dollar General BowlW 34-0Louisville2019Music City BowlW 38-282021First Responder BowlL 28-31Cincinnati2025Liberty BowlL 13-35

This week Wed Nov 4

  • Last gameL 25-49 vs. Utah Sat Oct 31
  • This season5-3
  • Hot seat9% 40th of 132
  • On track for7-5 regular season
  • Nextat Houston Sat Nov 7
  • Stature48th of 138 FBS programs

What the result changed

  • Playoff odds 0.2% → <0.1% CFB Zeitgeist forecast, before and after

Win and he’s at 5%. Lose and he’s at 9%.

at Houston, Sat Nov 7, 3:30 pm ET FOX · No. 17 Houston is 6-2 · Satterfield vs. Willie Fritz: 1-1 (not counting 1 game in seasons either team changed coaches) · Cincinnati’s chance to win: 16% (the site’s model)

CoolWarmHotBoilingIf Cincinnati wins: 5%, 54th of 132Now: 9%If Cincinnati loses: 9%, 40th of 1320%50%+
CoolWarmHotBoiling0%50%+
  • If Cincinnati wins: 5%, 54th of 132
  • Now: 9%
  • If Cincinnati loses: 9%, 40th of 132
His chance of being out after the season, now and after Saturday. Each tick is an FBS head coach’s number today; ranks are against today’s field. From the site’s hot-seat model.

Is he getting fired?

9% chance he’s out after the season · 40th of 132 FBS head coaches · Cool

Coolunder 10%Warm10–20%Hot20–35%Boiling35% upNow4% had they won4% had they wonLoss 9%Win 5%26%18%18%15%9%11%15%7%9%Pre1W vs. Boston CollegeW2W vs. Western CarolinaW3W vs. Miami (OH)W4W vs. Kansas StateW5L at ArizonaL6L at West VirginiaL7W vs. Texas TechW8L vs. UtahL9Chance to win at Houston16%10Chance to win at Iowa State64%11Chance to win vs. Colorado72%12Chance to win at BYU22%Game number. Under each game: the result, or his team’s chance to win it
CoolWarmHotBoilingNow4% had they wonLoss 9%Win 5%26%9%Pre368912Game
Dark line: his number after each game; a small dot just before a game is where it stood at kickoff, after other results moved it. Gray: where it could go, 8 seasons in 10 (darker, the middle half). The hollow dot: had his last game gone the other way. From the site’s hot-seat model.

If he finishes…

Bar: how likely that finish isNumber: his chance of being out

  1. 5-716%
  2. 6-610%
  3. 7-56%
  4. 8-43%
  5. 9-32%
Why his number is where it is

Our hot-seat model, on his record so far, the win chances for every game he has left, and his contract (a bigger buyout, relative to pay, makes a change costlier). Ranked against the 132 FBS head coaches with 3+ games this season.

All three of his finished seasons here ended Cool. Now right where 2025 was at this point.

His hot seat, week by week

The chance he’s out by the end of that season, as it stood after every week of his tenure here, by today’s model.

BoilingHotWarmCool20232024202520262023, week 3 (3 games in): <1%, 125th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2023, week 4 (4 games in): <1%, 124th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 5 (5 games in): <1%, 117th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 6 (5 games in): <1%, 116th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 7 (6 games in): <1%, 111th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 8 (7 games in): 1%, 103rd-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 9 (8 games in): 1%, 97th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 10 (9 games in): 1%, 96th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 11 (10 games in): 1%, 102nd-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 12 (11 games in): 1%, 97th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 13 (12 games in): 1%, 93rd-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 14 (12 games in): 1%, 93rd-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 15 (12 games in): 1%, 93rd-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2024, week 3 (3 games in): 7%, 50th-hottest of 111 FBS jobs2024, week 4 (4 games in): 5%, 64th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 5 (5 games in): 6%, 59th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 6 (5 games in): 6%, 58th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 7 (6 games in): 4%, 63rd-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 8 (7 games in): 3%, 70th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 9 (8 games in): 3%, 67th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 10 (8 games in): 3%, 64th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 11 (9 games in): 5%, 59th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 12 (10 games in): 6%, 54th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 13 (11 games in): 6%, 51st-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 14 (12 games in): 6%, 49th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 15 (12 games in): 6%, 49th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 16 (12 games in): 6%, 49th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2025, week 3 (3 games in): 12%, 32nd-hottest of 118 FBS jobs2025, week 4 (3 games in): 12%, 42nd-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 5 (4 games in): 8%, 52nd-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 6 (5 games in): 7%, 56th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 7 (6 games in): 5%, 65th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 8 (7 games in): 4%, 66th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 9 (8 games in): 3%, 70th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 10 (9 games in): 4%, 63rd-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 11 (9 games in): 4%, 61st-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 12 (10 games in): 5%, 54th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 13 (11 games in): 6%, 49th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 14 (12 games in): 6%, 42nd-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 15 (12 games in): 6%, 42nd-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 16 (12 games in): 6%, 42nd-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2026, week 3 (3 games in): 15%, 33rd-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2026, week 4 (4 games in): 9%, 45th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 5 (5 games in): 11%, 38th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 6 (5 games in): 11%, 41st-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 7 (6 games in): 15%, 31st-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 8 (7 games in): 7%, 53rd-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 9 (8 games in): 8%, 44th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 10 (8 games in): 9%, 40th-hottest of 132 FBS jobsnowEvery season ended Cool, 2023–2025

Earlier seasons price the games left with power ratings rebuilt after those seasons ended.

What drives his number

The biggest factors, each against the typical FBS job today.

  • ▲ Hotter
    Year 4 · tenure, which this model overrates
    (why?)

    Tenure is one of this model’s strongest inputs, but its weight was set when retirements like Nick Saban’s and Bob Stoops’ still counted as being pushed out, so it overstates how much tenure matters.

  • ▲ Hotter
    National Program program · the bar going in
  • ▼ Cooler
    5-3, outscoring opponents by 39

What happened to coaches like him, 2004–2025

A different comparison: past coaches, not today’s, grouped by one fact at a time. Neither line knows the games he has left or his contract, so they can sit above or below his chance.

Were 5-3 after 8 games
5% pushed out over results · of 502 coaches
Were in years 3-4, after 8 games
13% pushed out over results · of 754 coaches
The outcome
Pushed out over results — a firing, forced resignation, mutual parting or non-renewal, each read case by case. Leaving for a better job, or retiring on his own terms, doesn’t count.
Buyout
$12,008,333 reported, USA Today, Oct. 2025 · 3.2× total pay · an average buyout, which barely moves his chance

How good is this number? Checked on every FBS coach from 2010 to 2025, with its percentages calibrated each season on earlier years only: they track what happened — coaches it put near 25% were out about a quarter of the time — and a version pricing the games left with the previous season’s ratings ranked jobs as well as the ranking this page used before. Each week it learns from coaches who were still on the job at that point, so a firing during the season counts. In the Boiling zone it has run a few points high. Every job, and the method.

His week

Cincinnati Bearcats (GoBearcats) · 170 views by Wednesday

Several stories this week →

The headlines, Nov 1–4 from a few outlets

Fans are feeling good about Cincinnati

Parking free at Woodside today? it was my first time using the parking garage wood side garage by the library. I parked for 7ish hours and had my ticket was ready to pay but as I was attempting to scan my ticket at the exit the barrier just opened and I was able to drive through? was it due to Election Day and the polls in the langsam library?

Has anyone here interviewed with Idaho National Laboratory for engineering? If yes, could I ask a few questions?

CCM MM: Music Theory I'm looking at applying to the Masters of Music in Music Theory program. Any tips/advice on the application, the pre-screening, or just in general that you can muster from your time at CCM? Thanks!

Fan mood · last 3 weeks · more upbeat than 3 in 4 FBS fan bases

Offense: 19th of 138 per play. Defense: 114th.

Offense, per play19thRunning offense7thDefense, per play114thDefense, opponents' starting field position4thWorstBest
Offense, per play19th of 138Running offense7th of 138Defense, per play114th of 138Defense, opponents' starting field position4th of 138WorstBest
Through 8 games. Each tick is an FBS team, adjusted for opponent strength (CFB Zeitgeist model); the dot is Cincinnati. The other two rows are where Cincinnati stands furthest from the middle. Early-season numbers move a lot.

4 games left

  1. Sat Nov 7at Houston (6-2)FOX16%
  2. Sat Nov 14at Iowa State (4-4)64%
  3. Sat Nov 21vs. Colorado (3-5)72%
  4. Sat Nov 28at BYU (7-1)22%

Percent: Cincinnati’s chance to win, from the site’s model. Records are through today. Networks as announced; the rest are set closer to kickoff.

How the season got here

Where Cincinnati stood among 138 FBS programs by stature after each game (1st is the highest; the CFB Zeitgeist ledger).

40th46th52ndPreseason46thBoston College W 34-15Boston College W 34-15W 34-15Boston College46thWestern Carolina W 62-10Western Carolina W 62-10W 62-10Western Carol…46thMiami (OH) W 35-31Miami (OH) W 35-31W 35-31Miami (OH)45thKansas State W 31-26Kansas State W 31-26W 31-26Kansas State45thArizona L 7-34Arizona L 7-34L 7-34Arizona45thWest Virginia L 42-45West Virginia L 42-45L 42-45West Virginia45thTexas Tech W 37-24Texas Tech W 37-24W 37-24Texas Tech48thUtah L 25-49Utah L 25-49L 25-49Utah46th
  1. Oct 26–Nov 1L 25-49 vs. Utah7 headlines · 58th of 138What Cincinnati coach Scott Satterfield said after losing to Utah Yahoo Sports
  2. Oct 19–25W 37-24 vs. Texas Tech2 headlines · 73rd of 138NC State coaching candidates: Philip Rivers, Scott Satterfield head list USA Today
  3. Oct 12–18L 42-45 at West Virginia3 headlines · 64th of 138
  4. Oct 5–11No game1 headline · 83rd of 138UC coach Scott Satterfield, JC French, Jasper Beeler on Arizona loss Yahoo Sports
  5. Sep 28–Oct 4L 7-34 at Arizona2 headlines · 75th of 138Cincinnati Bearcats head coach Scott Satterfield walks on the field after the football game between Cincinnati Bearcats and Arizona Daily Star
  6. Sep 21–27 · rebuiltW 31-26 vs. Kansas State2 headlines · 76th of 138Cincinnati Stuns Kansas State to Give Scott Satterfield Historic 4-0 Start Heartland College Sports

Each week as this page showed it at the time. Weeks marked rebuilt came before this page existed: they were built afterward from only what was known by the end of that week.

Watch the biggest plays from Cincinnati’s games, ranked by how much each moved the chance to win.

Report card

Offense carries it: 79th percentile offense, below the median defense at 49th.

Cincinnati, every completed season graded against the whole field, then averaged.

Offense

B+
of which —79th
efficiency — 79th percentile success rate, 2023–25
B+73rd
Standard-downs success
A80th
Passing-downs success
A84th
Trench push (line yards)
C40th
Red-zone scoring rate
C+47th
Power-success (short yardage)
B-52nd
Ball security (giveaways per game)

Defense

C+
of which —49th
49th percentile SP+ defense, 2023–25
B+76th
Front-7 havoc
B65th
Secondary havoc
C+46th
Stuff rate (run defense)
D17th
Takeaways per game

Each season is his team’s percentile among every team with that stat (the share it beat), averaged over his completed seasons here; a mid-season takeover year and the season in progress aren’t graded. Letters: A+ 90th percentile and up, A 80, B+ 70, B 60, B− 50, C+ 45, C 40, C− 30, D 15, F below.

Poach watch

This winter

3%chance he leaves this winter for a head-coaching job elsewhere, or an NFL coordinator jobSettled60th-highest of 132 FBS head coaches
0%50%+

Our poach model, on his record so far, the win chances for every game he has left, his program, his pay and his background. Ranked against the 132 FBS head coaches this season. The zone words describe the market’s interest; none of them says he is leaving.

What drives his number

The biggest factors in his profile, each against the typical FBS head coach today. The games he has left are priced into the number, not listed here.

  • ▲ Higher
    His 4th season at Cincinnati
  • ▼ Lower
    12-13 over his previous two seasons here
How good is this number? It ranks a head coach who leaves for another head-coaching job ahead of one who stays 78 to 82% of the time, and its average came within a point of the share who actually left. What it can’t do

Tested on every FBS head coach from 2012 through 2025, each season scored by a model fit only on the seasons before it. From three games on, given one coach who left for a head-coaching job elsewhere or an NFL coordinator job and one who stayed, it ranked the one who left ahead 79 to 82% of the time; in a season’s first two games, 78%. Its average chance came within a point of the share who actually left. It counts a move a coach makes while he still holds the job; when his school ends it, that doesn’t count, even if another school then hires him.

  • The live number prices the games he has left with the power model’s ratings from this season. The test priced them with each team’s rating from the season before, because ratings made during past seasons were not kept, so this live version could not be replayed.
  • Programs new to FBS have no FBS record before this season in the data it reads, so their coaches are scored without one.
  • It is frozen: it learns nothing from 2026 until a deliberate refit.
  • A coach hired in December needs his background (age, alma mater, the state he was born in) added before his first game, or he shows as not rated.