Shane Beamer

Head coach · South Carolina
6th season · since 2021

At school38-33since 2021 · 5-3 this seasonHot seatCool4% · 62nd of 132 jobsLast gameW 42-25at Oklahoma · Oct 31Nextvs Texas A&MSat Nov 7 · 3 pm ET · ESPN2
This week · as of Wed Nov 4

5-3, won 3 straight, on track for 7-5 in the regular season.

Now

Career arc

Stature score reached, by season of his head-coaching careerSouth CarolinaClemsonClemsonGeorgiaGeorgiaDynastythe sport's summitBlue Bloodpermanent top tierPower Programperennial contenderNational Programrespectable, streakySouth Carolina when he took over: 40.8 (National Program I), its final 2020 readingtook overSouth Carolina, 2021: 7-6, National Program ISouth Carolina, 2021: 7-6, National Program I20217-6South Carolina, 2022: 8-5, National Program I20228-5South Carolina, 2023: 5-7, National Program I20235-7South Carolina, 2024: 9-4, Power Program III20249-4South Carolina, 2025: 4-8, Power Program III20254-8South Carolina, 2026: 5-3, Power Program IIISouth Carolina, 2026: 5-3, Power Program III20265-3+2.9best: 2025gray dashed: rival programs · ○ the program when he took over · Dashed segments are program changes — spacing is not proportional to calendar time

Bowls and playoffs: 1-2

2021Duke's Mayo BowlW 38-212022Gator BowlL 38-452024Citrus BowlL 17-21

This week Wed Nov 4

  • Last gameW 42-25 at Oklahoma Sat Oct 31
  • This season5-3 won 3 straight
  • On track for7-5 regular season
  • Nextvs. Texas A&M Sat Nov 7
  • Stature29th of 138 FBS programs

What the result changed

  • AP poll unranked → #23 into the poll
  • Playoff odds 6% → 8% CFB Zeitgeist forecast, before and after

Saturday: vs. Texas A&M

Sat Nov 7, 3 pm ET ESPN · Texas A&M is 4-4 · Beamer vs. Mike Elko: 1-1 · South Carolina’s chance to win: 59% (the site’s model)

Many stories this week →

The headlines, Nov 1–4 from several outlets

Offense: 50th of 138 per play. Defense: 93rd.

Offense, per play50thRunning offense13thDefense, per play93rdPass defense119thWorstBest
Offense, per play50th of 138Running offense13th of 138Defense, per play93rd of 138Pass defense119th of 138WorstBest
Through 8 games. Each tick is an FBS team, adjusted for opponent strength (CFB Zeitgeist model); the dot is South Carolina. The other two rows are where South Carolina stands furthest from the middle. Early-season numbers move a lot.

4 games left

  1. Sat Nov 7vs. Texas A&M (4-4)ESPN59%
  2. Sat Nov 14at Arkansas (3-5)SEC Network88%
  3. Sat Nov 21vs. Georgia (7-1)33%
  4. Sat Nov 28at Clemson (5-3)60%

Percent: South Carolina’s chance to win, from the site’s model. Records are through today. Networks as announced; the rest are set closer to kickoff.

How the season got here

Where South Carolina stood among 138 FBS programs by stature after each game (1st is the highest; the CFB Zeitgeist ledger).

25th31st37thPreseason31stKent State W 57-0Kent State W 57-0W 57-0Kent State31stTowson W 45-9Towson W 45-9W 45-9Towson30thMississippi State L 34-41Mississippi State L 34-41L 34-41Mississippi S…30thAlabama L 18-49Alabama L 18-49L 18-49Alabama31stKentucky L 34-35Kentucky L 34-35L 34-35Kentucky31stFlorida W 38-19Florida W 38-19W 38-19Florida31stTennessee W 27-24Tennessee W 27-24W 27-24Tennessee32ndOklahoma W 42-25Oklahoma W 42-25W 42-25Oklahoma30th
  1. Oct 26–Nov 1W 42-25 at Oklahoma23 headlines · 26th of 138Everything Shane Beamer said after South Carolina's Week 9 win over Oklahoma On3“Should be 42-0”Shane Beamer not satisfied with 18-point halftime lead over Oklahoma, Oct 31
  2. Oct 19–25W 27-24 vs. Tennessee33 headlines · 12th of 138Why Shane Beamer ripped theories on 4-year-old win as South Carolina beats Tennessee again USA Today“Hopefully we can put that crap to bed now”Beamer, Oct 24
  3. Oct 12–18No game4 headlines · 55th of 138College football's hottest coaching seats after Week 6 see Shane Beamer cool USA Today
  4. Oct 5–11W 38-19 at Florida41 headlines · 4th of 138What is Shane Beamer's buyout before South Carolina football vs Florida game? Yahoo Sports
  5. Sep 28–Oct 4L 34-35 vs. Kentucky63 headlines · 2nd of 138Shane Beamer Gets Brutally Booed by South Carolina Crowd as Fans Demand Immediate Firing Yahoo Sports“There’s a standard”Shane Beamer comments on Dylan Stewart suspension, Oct 3
  6. Sep 21–27 · rebuiltL 18-49 at Alabama33 headlines · 12th of 138Shane Beamer buyout: How much is South Carolina coach owed if fired? USA Today

Each week as this page showed it at the time. Weeks marked rebuilt came before this page existed: they were built afterward from only what was known by the end of that week.

Watch the biggest plays from South Carolina’s games, ranked by how much each moved the chance to win.

Report card

Defense carries it: 69th percentile defense, below the median offense at 48th.

South Carolina, every completed season graded against the whole field, then averaged.

Offense

C+
of which —48th
efficiency — 48th percentile success rate, 2021–25
B-50th
Standard-downs success
B-53rd
Passing-downs success
C+47th
Trench push (line yards)
C+48th
Red-zone scoring rate
B63rd
Power-success (short yardage)
D28th
Ball security (giveaways per game)

Defense

B
of which —69th
69th percentile SP+ defense, 2021–25
B67th
Front-7 havoc
A83rd
Secondary havoc
C-34th
Stuff rate (run defense)
B+79th
Takeaways per game

Each season is his team’s percentile among every team with that stat (the share it beat), averaged over his completed seasons here; a mid-season takeover year and the season in progress aren’t graded. Letters: A+ 90th percentile and up, A 80, B+ 70, B 60, B− 50, C+ 45, C 40, C− 30, D 15, F below.

Hot seat

See every job →

This season

4%chance he’s out by the end of this seasonCool62nd-hottest of 132 FBS jobs
0%50%+

Our hot-seat model, on his record so far, the win chances for every game he has left, and his contract (a bigger buyout, relative to pay, makes a change costlier). Ranked against the 132 FBS head coaches with 3+ games this season.

Now cooler than at this point in 2025.

How his seat has moved, and why

His hot seat, week by week

The chance he’s out by the end of that season, as it stood after every week of his tenure here, by today’s model.

BoilingHotWarmCool2021202220232024202520262021, week 3 (3 games in): 1%, 100th-hottest of 125 FBS jobs2021, week 4 (4 games in): 2%, 99th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 5 (5 games in): 2%, 99th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 6 (6 games in): 2%, 98th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 7 (7 games in): 2%, 95th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 8 (8 games in): 2%, 94th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 9 (8 games in): 2%, 91st-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 10 (9 games in): 1%, 96th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 11 (10 games in): 1%, 89th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 12 (11 games in): 1%, 97th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 13 (12 games in): 1%, 87th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 14 (12 games in): 1%, 87th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 15 (12 games in): 1%, 87th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2022, week 3 (3 games in): 12%, 38th-hottest of 125 FBS jobs2022, week 4 (4 games in): 11%, 42nd-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 5 (5 games in): 9.8%, 45th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 6 (6 games in): 7%, 57th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 7 (6 games in): 7%, 58th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 8 (7 games in): 6%, 59th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 9 (8 games in): 7%, 53rd-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 10 (9 games in): 7%, 53rd-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 11 (10 games in): 7%, 55th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 12 (11 games in): 4%, 64th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 13 (12 games in): 3%, 68th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 14 (12 games in): 3%, 68th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 15 (12 games in): 3%, 68th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2023, week 3 (3 games in): 8%, 52nd-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2023, week 4 (4 games in): 7%, 56th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 5 (5 games in): 8%, 55th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 6 (5 games in): 8%, 56th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 7 (6 games in): 11%, 45th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 8 (7 games in): 12%, 41st-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 9 (8 games in): 13%, 37th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 10 (9 games in): 10%, 46th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 11 (10 games in): 9%, 45th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 12 (11 games in): 8%, 51st-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 13 (12 games in): 8%, 45th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 14 (12 games in): 8%, 45th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 15 (12 games in): 8%, 45th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2024, week 3 (3 games in): 9.9%, 39th-hottest of 111 FBS jobs2024, week 4 (4 games in): 9.9%, 49th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 5 (4 games in): 9.9%, 48th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 6 (5 games in): 11%, 41st-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 7 (6 games in): 10%, 43rd-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 8 (7 games in): 7%, 52nd-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 9 (7 games in): 7%, 51st-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 10 (8 games in): 5%, 59th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 11 (9 games in): 4%, 63rd-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 12 (10 games in): 3%, 67th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 13 (11 games in): 3%, 68th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 14 (12 games in): 1%, 91st-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 15 (12 games in): 1%, 90th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 16 (12 games in): 1%, 90th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2025, week 3 (3 games in): 10%, 39th-hottest of 118 FBS jobs2025, week 4 (4 games in): 11%, 46th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 5 (5 games in): 9%, 46th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 6 (5 games in): 9%, 45th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 7 (6 games in): 12%, 40th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 8 (7 games in): 15%, 32nd-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 9 (8 games in): 17%, 28th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 10 (9 games in): 17%, 27th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 11 (9 games in): 17%, 26th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 12 (10 games in): 17%, 26th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 13 (11 games in): 17%, 27th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 14 (12 games in): 18%, 24th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 15 (12 games in): 18%, 24th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 16 (12 games in): 18%, 24th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2026, week 3 (3 games in): 9%, 48th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2026, week 4 (4 games in): 13%, 36th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 5 (5 games in): 17%, 27th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 6 (6 games in): 9.7%, 43rd-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 7 (6 games in): 9.6%, 46th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 8 (7 games in): 6%, 60th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 9 (8 games in): 4%, 68th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 10 (8 games in): 4%, 62nd-hottest of 132 FBS jobsnowEvery season ended Cool, 2021–2024

Earlier seasons price the games left with power ratings rebuilt after those seasons ended.

What drives his number

The biggest factors, each against the typical FBS job today.

  • ▲ Hotter
    Year 6 · tenure, which this model overrates
    (why?)

    Tenure is one of this model’s strongest inputs, but its weight was set when retirements like Nick Saban’s and Bob Stoops’ still counted as being pushed out, so it overstates how much tenure matters.

  • ▼ Cooler
    5-3, outscoring opponents by 93

What happened to coaches like him, 2004–2025

A different comparison: past coaches, not today’s, grouped by one fact at a time. Neither line knows the games he has left or his contract, so they can sit above or below his chance.

Were 5-3 after 8 games
5% pushed out over results · of 502 coaches
Were in years 5-9, after 8 games
14% pushed out over results · of 700 coaches
The outcome
Pushed out over results — a firing, forced resignation, mutual parting or non-renewal, each read case by case. Leaving for a better job, or retiring on his own terms, doesn’t count.
Buyout
$27,903,958 reported, USA Today, Oct. 2025 · 3.4× total pay · a large buyout, which lowers his chance of being let go · without it: 5%

How good is this number? Checked on every FBS coach from 2010 to 2025, with its percentages calibrated each season on earlier years only: they track what happened — coaches it put near 25% were out about a quarter of the time — and a version pricing the games left with the previous season’s ratings ranked jobs as well as the ranking this page used before. Each week it learns from coaches who were still on the job at that point, so a firing during the season counts. In the Boiling zone it has run a few points high. Every job, and the method.