Tosh Lupoi

Head coach · California
1st season · since 2026

At California3-6since 2026 · 3-6 this seasonHot seatCool2% · 78th of 132 jobsLast gameL 10-31at NC State · Oct 31NextByethen at Virginia · Sat Nov 14
This week · as of Wed Nov 4

3-6, lost 3 straight, on track for 4-8 in the regular season.

Now

Career arc

This week Wed Nov 4

  • Last gameL 10-31 at NC State Sat Oct 31
  • This season3-6 lost 3 straight
  • On track for4-8 regular season
  • Nextat Virginia Sat Nov 14 (no game this week)
  • Stature74th of 138 FBS programs

Saturday: at Virginia

No game this week · Sat Nov 14, time to be announced ACC Network · Virginia is 4-5 · First meeting between Lupoi and Tony Elliott as head coaches · California’s chance to win: 21% (the site’s model)

A few headlines named him in the last 7 days

78th of 138 FBS head coaches

The headlines, Nov 1–4

What they are talking about, week and season

Offense: 124th of 138 per play. Defense: 129th.

Offense, per play124thRunning offense129thDefense, per play129thDefense, big plays allowed136thWorstBest
Offense, per play124th of 138Running offense129th of 138Defense, per play129th of 138Defense, big plays allowed136th of 138WorstBest
Through 9 games. Each tick is an FBS team, adjusted for opponent strength (CFB Zeitgeist model); the dot is California. The other two rows are where California stands furthest from the middle. Early-season numbers move a lot.

3 games left

  1. Sat Nov 14at Virginia (4-5)ACC Network21%
  2. Sat Nov 21vs. Stanford (4-5)53%
  3. Sat Nov 28vs. Pittsburgh (6-3)16%

Percent: California’s chance to win, from the site’s model. Records are through today. Networks as announced; the rest are set closer to kickoff.

How the season got here

Where California stood among 138 FBS programs by stature after each game (1st is the highest; the CFB Zeitgeist ledger).

62nd70th77thPreseason66thUCLA L 24-45UCLA L 24-45L 24-45UCLA66thSyracuse W 21-18Syracuse W 21-18W 21-18Syracuse66thWagner W 49-7Wagner W 49-7W 49-7Wagner66thClemson L 10-24Clemson L 10-24L 10-24Clemson65thUNLV L 31-39UNLV L 31-39L 31-39UNLV65thVirginia Tech W 25-20Virginia Tech W 25-20W 25-20Virginia Tech66thWake Forest L 7-41Wake Forest L 7-41L 7-41Wake Forest66thSMU L 20-59SMU L 20-59L 20-59SMU71stNC State L 10-31NC State L 10-31L 10-31NC State73rdBye74th
  1. Oct 26–Nov 1L 10-31 at NC State2 headlines · 77th of 138
  2. Oct 19–25L 20-59 at SMU5 headlines · 61st of 138Cal football head coach Tosh Lupoi’s contract worth $22.6M over 5 seasons The Daily Californian
  3. Oct 12–18L 7-41 vs. Wake Forest2 headlines · 74th of 138
  4. Oct 5–11W 25-20 vs. Virginia Tech3 headlines · 63rd of 138
  5. Sep 28–Oct 4L 31-39 at UNLV3 headlines · 70th of 138Former Oregon DC Tosh Lupoi is already facing calls for his job over rough stretch for Cal Autzen Zoo
  6. Sep 21–27 · rebuiltL 10-24 vs. Clemson6 headlines · 55th of 138What Cal coach Tosh Lupoi said about Clemson football after Tigers win Clemson Wire

Each week as this page showed it at the time. Weeks marked rebuilt came before this page existed: they were built afterward from only what was known by the end of that week.

Watch the biggest plays from California’s games, ranked by how much each moved the chance to win.

Hot seat

See every job →

This season

2%chance he’s out by the end of this seasonCool78th-hottest of 132 FBS jobs
0%50%+

Our hot-seat model, on his record so far, the win chances for every game he has left, and his contract (a bigger buyout, relative to pay, makes a change costlier). Ranked against the 132 FBS head coaches with 3+ games this season.

His first rated season here.

His hot seat, week by week

The chance he’s out by the end of that season, as it stood after every week of his tenure here, by today’s model.

BoilingHotWarmCool20262026, week 3 (3 games in): 1%, 99th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2026, week 4 (4 games in): 2%, 92nd-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 5 (5 games in): 2%, 89th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 6 (6 games in): 1%, 100th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 7 (7 games in): 2%, 89th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 8 (8 games in): 2%, 87th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 9 (9 games in): 2%, 84th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 10 (9 games in): 2%, 78th-hottest of 132 FBS jobsnow

What drives his number

The biggest factors, each against the typical FBS job today.

  • ▼ Cooler
    Year 1 · tenure, which this model overrates
    (why?)

    Tenure is one of this model’s strongest inputs, but its weight was set when retirements like Nick Saban’s and Bob Stoops’ still counted as being pushed out, so it overstates how much tenure matters.

  • ▲ Hotter
    3-6, outscored by 87
  • ▼ Cooler
    No previous seasons here to judge him on

What happened to coaches like him, 2004–2025

A different comparison: past coaches, not today’s, grouped by one fact at a time. Neither line knows the games he has left or his contract, so they can sit above or below his chance.

Were 3-6 after 9 games
19% pushed out over results · of 323 coaches
Were in year 1, after 9 games
1% pushed out over results · of 518 coaches
The outcome
Pushed out over results — a firing, forced resignation, mutual parting or non-renewal, each read case by case. Leaving for a better job, or retiring on his own terms, doesn’t count.
Buyout
No figure on file for this coach. The salary database predates the last coaching carousel; a name mismatch is suppressed rather than misattributed.

How good is this number? Checked on every FBS coach from 2010 to 2025, with its percentages calibrated each season on earlier years only: they track what happened — coaches it put near 25% were out about a quarter of the time — and a version pricing the games left with the previous season’s ratings ranked jobs as well as the ranking this page used before. Each week it learns from coaches who were still on the job at that point, so a firing during the season counts. In the Boiling zone it has run a few points high. Every job, and the method.