Troy Calhoun

Head coach · Air Force
20th season · since 2007

At Air Force145-99since 2007 · 6-2 this seasonHot seatWarm17% · 24th of 132 jobsLast gameW 35-26vs UConn · Oct 31Nextat ArmySat Nov 7 · 7:30 pm ET · CBS
This week · as of Wed Nov 4

6-2, on track for 8-4 in the regular season.

Now

Career arc

Bowls and playoffs: 8-5

’07L’08L’09W’10W’11L’12L’14W’15L’16W’19W’21W’22W’23W

Show all 13 games
2007Armed Forces BowlL 36-422008Armed Forces BowlL 28-342009Armed Forces BowlW 47-202010Independence BowlW 14-72011Military BowlL 41-422012Armed Forces BowlL 14-332014Famous Idaho Potato BowlW 38-242015Armed Forces BowlL 36-552016Arizona BowlW 45-212019Cheez-It BowlW 31-212021First Responder BowlW 31-282022Armed Forces BowlW 30-152023Armed Forces BowlW 31-21

This week Wed Nov 4

  • Last gameW 35-26 vs. UConn Sat Oct 31
  • This season6-2
  • Hot seat17% 24th of 132
  • On track for8-4 regular season
  • Nextat Army Sat Nov 7
  • Stature89th of 138 FBS programs

Win and he’s at 12%. Lose and he’s at 20%.

at Army, Sat Nov 7, 7:30 pm ET CBS · Army is 5-3 · Calhoun vs. Jeff Monken: 5-7 · Air Force’s chance to win: 40% (the site’s model)

CoolWarmHotBoilingIf Air Force wins: 12%, 34th of 132Now: 17%If Air Force loses: 20%, 22nd of 1320%50%+
CoolWarmHotBoiling0%50%+
  • If Air Force wins: 12%, 34th of 132
  • Now: 17%
  • If Air Force loses: 20%, 22nd of 132
His chance of being out after the season, now and after Saturday. Each tick is an FBS head coach’s number today; ranks are against today’s field. From the site’s hot-seat model.

Is he getting fired?

17% chance he’s out after the season · 24th of 132 FBS head coaches · Warm

Coolunder 10%Warm10–20%Hot20–35%Boiling35% upNow27% had they lost27% had they lostLoss 20%Win 12%28%30%37%34%27%19%14%22%17%Pre1W vs. DuquesneW2L vs. North Dakota StateL3W at NevadaW4W vs. NavyW5W at Northern IllinoisW6W vs. UNLVW7L at WyomingL8W vs. UConnW9Chance to win at Army40%10Chance to win vs. San José State75%11Chance to win vs. UTEP94%12Chance to win at New Mexico30%Game number. Under each game: the result, or his team’s chance to win it
CoolWarmHotBoilingNow27% had they lost27% had they lostLoss 20%Win 12%28%17%Pre368912Game
Dark line: his number after each game; a small dot just before a game is where it stood at kickoff, after other results moved it. Gray: where it could go, 8 seasons in 10 (darker, the middle half). The hollow dot: had his last game gone the other way. From the site’s hot-seat model.

If he finishes…

Bar: how likely that finish isNumber: his chance of being out

  1. 7-527%
  2. 8-417%
  3. 9-310%
  4. 10-25%

The case for a change

  • 2-19against AP top-25 teams here, 0-7 against the top 10
  • 11-8against Army here, including 3 straight losses. Next meeting: week 10, on the road.

The case for patience

  • 3 of 6recent seasons with 8+ wins
  • 6-2this season so far

Facts from his record in this job, both ways. No verdict.

Why his number is where it is

Our hot-seat model, on his record so far, the win chances for every game he has left, and his contract (a bigger buyout, relative to pay, makes a change costlier). Ranked against the 132 FBS head coaches with 3+ games this season.

Now cooler than at this point in 2025.

His hot seat, week by week

The chance he’s out by the end of that season, as it stood after every week of his tenure here, by today’s model.

BoilingHotWarmCool20072010201320162019202220262007, week 3 (3 games in): 1%, 91st-hottest of 105 FBS jobs2007, week 4 (4 games in): 1%, 104th-hottest of 119 FBS jobs2007, week 5 (5 games in): 1%, 99th-hottest of 119 FBS jobs2007, week 6 (6 games in): <1%, 108th-hottest of 119 FBS jobs2007, week 7 (7 games in): <1%, 111th-hottest of 119 FBS jobs2007, week 8 (8 games in): <1%, 110th-hottest of 119 FBS jobs2007, week 9 (9 games in): <1%, 108th-hottest of 119 FBS jobs2007, week 10 (10 games in): <1%, 108th-hottest of 119 FBS jobs2007, week 11 (11 games in): <1%, 111th-hottest of 119 FBS jobs2007, week 12 (12 games in): <1%, 108th-hottest of 119 FBS jobs2007, week 13 (12 games in): <1%, 102nd-hottest of 119 FBS jobs2007, week 14 (12 games in): <1%, 101st-hottest of 119 FBS jobs2008, week 3 (3 games in): 1%, 69th-hottest of 81 FBS jobs2008, week 4 (4 games in): 2%, 89th-hottest of 117 FBS jobs2008, week 5 (4 games in): 2%, 87th-hottest of 119 FBS jobs2008, week 6 (5 games in): 2%, 85th-hottest of 119 FBS jobs2008, week 7 (6 games in): 1%, 86th-hottest of 119 FBS jobs2008, week 8 (7 games in): 1%, 94th-hottest of 119 FBS jobs2008, week 9 (8 games in): 1%, 101st-hottest of 119 FBS jobs2008, week 10 (9 games in): <1%, 106th-hottest of 119 FBS jobs2008, week 11 (10 games in): <1%, 108th-hottest of 119 FBS jobs2008, week 12 (11 games in): <1%, 103rd-hottest of 119 FBS jobs2008, week 13 (12 games in): <1%, 97th-hottest of 119 FBS jobs2008, week 14 (12 games in): <1%, 93rd-hottest of 119 FBS jobs2008, week 15 (12 games in): <1%, 92nd-hottest of 119 FBS jobs2009, week 3 (3 games in): 3%, 64th-hottest of 101 FBS jobs2009, week 4 (4 games in): 2%, 85th-hottest of 119 FBS jobs2009, week 5 (5 games in): 3%, 78th-hottest of 119 FBS jobs2009, week 6 (6 games in): 3%, 75th-hottest of 119 FBS jobs2009, week 7 (7 games in): 2%, 77th-hottest of 119 FBS jobs2009, week 8 (8 games in): 2%, 74th-hottest of 119 FBS jobs2009, week 9 (9 games in): 1%, 82nd-hottest of 119 FBS jobs2009, week 10 (10 games in): 1%, 92nd-hottest of 119 FBS jobs2009, week 11 (11 games in): 1%, 90th-hottest of 119 FBS jobs2009, week 12 (12 games in): 1%, 89th-hottest of 119 FBS jobs2009, week 13 (12 games in): 1%, 83rd-hottest of 119 FBS jobs2009, week 14 (12 games in): 1%, 80th-hottest of 119 FBS jobs2009, week 15 (12 games in): 1%, 80th-hottest of 119 FBS jobs2010, week 3 (3 games in): 5%, 48th-hottest of 102 FBS jobs2010, week 4 (4 games in): 4%, 71st-hottest of 119 FBS jobs2010, week 5 (5 games in): 3%, 73rd-hottest of 119 FBS jobs2010, week 6 (6 games in): 2%, 82nd-hottest of 119 FBS jobs2010, week 7 (7 games in): 3%, 73rd-hottest of 119 FBS jobs2010, week 8 (8 games in): 3%, 71st-hottest of 119 FBS jobs2010, week 9 (9 games in): 3%, 65th-hottest of 119 FBS jobs2010, week 10 (10 games in): 2%, 74th-hottest of 119 FBS jobs2010, week 11 (11 games in): 2%, 79th-hottest of 119 FBS jobs2010, week 12 (12 games in): 1%, 82nd-hottest of 119 FBS jobs2010, week 13 (12 games in): 1%, 80th-hottest of 119 FBS jobs2010, week 14 (12 games in): 1%, 78th-hottest of 119 FBS jobs2010, week 15 (12 games in): 1%, 78th-hottest of 119 FBS jobs2011, week 4 (3 games in): 6%, 58th-hottest of 119 FBS jobs2011, week 5 (4 games in): 4%, 66th-hottest of 119 FBS jobs2011, week 6 (5 games in): 5%, 58th-hottest of 119 FBS jobs2011, week 7 (6 games in): 5%, 56th-hottest of 119 FBS jobs2011, week 8 (7 games in): 5%, 53rd-hottest of 119 FBS jobs2011, week 9 (8 games in): 4%, 57th-hottest of 119 FBS jobs2011, week 10 (9 games in): 4%, 58th-hottest of 119 FBS jobs2011, week 11 (10 games in): 5%, 51st-hottest of 119 FBS jobs2011, week 12 (11 games in): 4%, 51st-hottest of 119 FBS jobs2011, week 13 (12 games in): 3%, 62nd-hottest of 119 FBS jobs2011, week 14 (12 games in): 3%, 62nd-hottest of 119 FBS jobs2011, week 15 (12 games in): 3%, 61st-hottest of 119 FBS jobs2012, week 4 (3 games in): 9%, 37th-hottest of 121 FBS jobs2012, week 5 (4 games in): 9.5%, 39th-hottest of 123 FBS jobs2012, week 6 (5 games in): 12%, 32nd-hottest of 123 FBS jobs2012, week 7 (6 games in): 9%, 39th-hottest of 123 FBS jobs2012, week 8 (7 games in): 6%, 45th-hottest of 123 FBS jobs2012, week 9 (8 games in): 6%, 49th-hottest of 123 FBS jobs2012, week 10 (9 games in): 7%, 41st-hottest of 123 FBS jobs2012, week 11 (10 games in): 8%, 39th-hottest of 123 FBS jobs2012, week 12 (11 games in): 7%, 42nd-hottest of 123 FBS jobs2012, week 13 (12 games in): 7%, 40th-hottest of 123 FBS jobs2012, week 14 (12 games in): 7%, 39th-hottest of 123 FBS jobs2012, week 15 (12 games in): 7%, 39th-hottest of 123 FBS jobs2013, week 3 (3 games in): 34.7%, 9th-hottest of 88 FBS jobs2013, week 4 (4 games in): 37%, 9th-hottest of 121 FBS jobs2013, week 5 (5 games in): 41%, 8th-hottest of 124 FBS jobs2013, week 6 (6 games in): 44%, 5th-hottest of 124 FBS jobs2013, week 7 (7 games in): 47%, 4th-hottest of 124 FBS jobs2013, week 8 (7 games in): 47%, 4th-hottest of 124 FBS jobs2013, week 9 (8 games in): 47%, 4th-hottest of 124 FBS jobs2013, week 10 (9 games in): 42%, 6th-hottest of 124 FBS jobs2013, week 11 (10 games in): 45%, 5th-hottest of 124 FBS jobs2013, week 12 (10 games in): 45%, 6th-hottest of 124 FBS jobs2013, week 13 (11 games in): 47%, 4th-hottest of 124 FBS jobs2013, week 14 (12 games in): 48%, 4th-hottest of 124 FBS jobs2013, week 15 (12 games in): 48%, 4th-hottest of 124 FBS jobs2013, week 16 (12 games in): 48%, 4th-hottest of 124 FBS jobs2014, week 3 (3 games in): 28%, 9th-hottest of 95 FBS jobs2014, week 4 (3 games in): 28%, 14th-hottest of 125 FBS jobs2014, week 5 (4 games in): 21%, 24th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2014, week 6 (5 games in): 16%, 30th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2014, week 7 (6 games in): 19%, 28th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2014, week 8 (7 games in): 14%, 34th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2014, week 9 (7 games in): 14%, 33rd-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2014, week 10 (8 games in): 9.7%, 40th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2014, week 11 (9 games in): 7%, 50th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2014, week 12 (10 games in): 6%, 54th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2014, week 13 (11 games in): 7%, 51st-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2014, week 14 (12 games in): 5%, 59th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2014, week 15 (12 games in): 5%, 59th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2014, week 16 (12 games in): 5%, 59th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2015, week 3 (3 games in): 24%, 18th-hottest of 115 FBS jobs2015, week 4 (3 games in): 24%, 19th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2015, week 5 (4 games in): 24%, 19th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2015, week 6 (5 games in): 23%, 23rd-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2015, week 7 (6 games in): 23%, 22nd-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2015, week 8 (7 games in): 18%, 34th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2015, week 9 (8 games in): 14%, 40th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2015, week 10 (9 games in): 12%, 45th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2015, week 11 (10 games in): 9%, 49th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2015, week 12 (11 games in): 6%, 53rd-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2015, week 13 (12 games in): 7%, 49th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2015, week 14 (12 games in): 7%, 48th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2015, week 15 (12 games in): 7%, 48th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2016, week 4 (3 games in): 7%, 54th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2016, week 5 (4 games in): 5%, 64th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2016, week 6 (5 games in): 7%, 55th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2016, week 7 (6 games in): 9.5%, 44th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2016, week 8 (7 games in): 12%, 37th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2016, week 9 (8 games in): 8%, 44th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2016, week 10 (9 games in): 6%, 52nd-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2016, week 11 (10 games in): 5%, 61st-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2016, week 12 (11 games in): 3%, 69th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2016, week 13 (12 games in): 2%, 76th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2016, week 14 (12 games in): 2%, 75th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2016, week 15 (12 games in): 2%, 75th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2017, week 4 (3 games in): 23%, 22nd-hottest of 126 FBS jobs2017, week 5 (4 games in): 25%, 18th-hottest of 129 FBS jobs2017, week 6 (5 games in): 28%, 19th-hottest of 129 FBS jobs2017, week 7 (6 games in): 25%, 21st-hottest of 129 FBS jobs2017, week 8 (7 games in): 18%, 27th-hottest of 129 FBS jobs2017, week 9 (8 games in): 16%, 32nd-hottest of 129 FBS jobs2017, week 10 (9 games in): 20%, 25th-hottest of 129 FBS jobs2017, week 11 (10 games in): 25%, 16th-hottest of 129 FBS jobs2017, week 12 (11 games in): 26%, 18th-hottest of 129 FBS jobs2017, week 13 (12 games in): 19.7%, 23rd-hottest of 129 FBS jobs2017, week 14 (12 games in): 19.7%, 23rd-hottest of 129 FBS jobs2017, week 15 (12 games in): 19.7%, 23rd-hottest of 129 FBS jobs2018, week 4 (3 games in): 30%, 15th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2018, week 5 (4 games in): 30%, 15th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2018, week 6 (5 games in): 24%, 24th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2018, week 7 (6 games in): 25%, 22nd-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2018, week 8 (7 games in): 21%, 27th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2018, week 9 (8 games in): 23%, 25th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2018, week 10 (9 games in): 22%, 24th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2018, week 11 (10 games in): 21%, 27th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2018, week 12 (11 games in): 25%, 23rd-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2018, week 13 (12 games in): 20%, 26th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2018, week 14 (12 games in): 20%, 26th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2018, week 15 (12 games in): 20%, 26th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2019, week 4 (3 games in): 25%, 21st-hottest of 129 FBS jobs2019, week 5 (4 games in): 22%, 23rd-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2019, week 6 (5 games in): 21%, 29th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2019, week 7 (6 games in): 12%, 41st-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2019, week 8 (7 games in): 8%, 48th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2019, week 9 (8 games in): 7%, 48th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2019, week 10 (9 games in): 5%, 54th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2019, week 11 (9 games in): 5%, 54th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2019, week 12 (10 games in): 4%, 61st-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2019, week 13 (11 games in): 3%, 65th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2019, week 14 (12 games in): 2%, 71st-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2019, week 15 (12 games in): 2%, 71st-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2020, week 9 (3 games in): 19%, 19th-hottest of 76 FBS jobs2020, week 10 (3 games in): 19%, 21st-hottest of 96 FBS jobs2020, week 11 (3 games in): 19%, 20th-hottest of 100 FBS jobs2020, week 12 (4 games in): 19.8%, 31st-hottest of 117 FBS jobs2020, week 13 (4 games in): 19.8%, 28th-hottest of 124 FBS jobs2020, week 14 (5 games in): 21%, 26th-hottest of 126 FBS jobs2020, week 15 (5 games in): 21%, 25th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2020, week 16 (6 games in): 17%, 31st-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2021, week 3 (3 games in): 12%, 39th-hottest of 125 FBS jobs2021, week 4 (4 games in): 7%, 60th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 5 (5 games in): 6%, 67th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 6 (6 games in): 4%, 75th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 7 (7 games in): 3%, 87th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 8 (8 games in): 4%, 74th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 9 (8 games in): 4%, 75th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 10 (9 games in): 5%, 65th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 11 (10 games in): 3%, 74th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 12 (11 games in): 2%, 82nd-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 13 (12 games in): 1%, 85th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 14 (12 games in): 1%, 85th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 15 (12 games in): 1%, 85th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2022, week 3 (3 games in): 9%, 50th-hottest of 125 FBS jobs2022, week 4 (4 games in): 8%, 52nd-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 5 (5 games in): 6%, 62nd-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 6 (6 games in): 6%, 61st-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 7 (7 games in): 5%, 63rd-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 8 (8 games in): 6%, 58th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 9 (8 games in): 6%, 57th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 10 (9 games in): 4%, 66th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 11 (10 games in): 4%, 70th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 12 (11 games in): 3%, 72nd-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 13 (12 games in): 2%, 80th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 14 (12 games in): 2%, 80th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 15 (12 games in): 2%, 80th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2023, week 3 (3 games in): 4%, 69th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2023, week 4 (4 games in): 2%, 82nd-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 5 (5 games in): 2%, 93rd-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 6 (5 games in): 2%, 90th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 7 (6 games in): 1%, 97th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 8 (7 games in): 1%, 104th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 9 (8 games in): 1%, 104th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 10 (9 games in): 1%, 91st-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 11 (10 games in): 2%, 81st-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 12 (11 games in): 3%, 72nd-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 13 (12 games in): 3%, 67th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 14 (12 games in): 3%, 67th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 15 (12 games in): 3%, 67th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2024, week 3 (3 games in): 38%, 6th-hottest of 111 FBS jobs2024, week 4 (3 games in): 38%, 8th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 5 (4 games in): 48%, 3rd-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 6 (5 games in): 50%, 3rd-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 7 (6 games in): 52%, 3rd-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 8 (7 games in): 52%, 3rd-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 9 (7 games in): 52%, 2nd-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 10 (8 games in): 50%, 2nd-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 11 (9 games in): 43%, 8th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 12 (10 games in): 37%, 10th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 13 (11 games in): 30%, 14th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 14 (12 games in): 25%, 17th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 15 (12 games in): 25%, 17th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 16 (12 games in): 25%, 17th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2025, week 4 (3 games in): 51%, 2nd-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 5 (4 games in): 54%, 3rd-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 6 (5 games in): 54%, 2nd-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 7 (6 games in): 54%, 2nd-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 8 (7 games in): 51%, 2nd-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 9 (7 games in): 51%, 2nd-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 10 (8 games in): 51%, 2nd-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 11 (9 games in): 46%, 2nd-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 12 (10 games in): 47%, 2nd-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 13 (11 games in): 47%, 2nd-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 14 (12 games in): 45%, 4th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 15 (12 games in): 45%, 4th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 16 (12 games in): 45%, 4th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2026, week 4 (3 games in): 34%, 9th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 5 (4 games in): 27%, 17th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 6 (5 games in): 19%, 21st-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 7 (6 games in): 14%, 33rd-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 8 (7 games in): 22%, 19th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 9 (8 games in): 17%, 27th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 10 (8 games in): 17%, 24th-hottest of 132 FBS jobsnowHottest: 2025, week 5▲ Year 19 · tenure, which this model overratesEvery season ended Cool, 2007–2012

Hottest: 2025, week 5 (54%, 3rd-hottest of 136 FBS jobs that week). Top factor: ▲ Hotter Year 19 · tenure, which this model overrates

Earlier seasons price the games left with power ratings rebuilt after those seasons ended.

What drives his number

The biggest factors, each against the typical FBS job today.

  • ▲ Hotter
    Year 20 · tenure, which this model overrates
    (why?)

    Tenure is one of this model’s strongest inputs, but its weight was set when retirements like Nick Saban’s and Bob Stoops’ still counted as being pushed out, so it overstates how much tenure matters. History alone points the other way: of 213 past coaches in year 10 or later at this point in a season, 6% were pushed out over results, against 13% of 1,454 in years 3–9.

  • ▼ Cooler
    6-2, outscoring opponents by 62
  • ▲ Hotter
    9-15 over his previous two seasons here

What happened to coaches like him, 2004–2025

A different comparison: past coaches, not today’s, grouped by one fact at a time. Neither line knows the games he has left or his contract, so they can sit above or below his chance.

Were 6-2 after 8 games
2% pushed out over results · of 389 coaches
Were in year 10 or later, after 8 games
6% pushed out over results · of 213 coaches
The outcome
Pushed out over results — a firing, forced resignation, mutual parting or non-renewal, each read case by case. Leaving for a better job, or retiring on his own terms, doesn’t count.
Buyout
$4,250,216 imputed from total pay — not a reported figure · 2.7× total pay · a small buyout, which raises his chance of being let go · without it: 13%

How good is this number? Checked on every FBS coach from 2010 to 2025, with its percentages calibrated each season on earlier years only: they track what happened — coaches it put near 25% were out about a quarter of the time — and a version pricing the games left with the previous season’s ratings ranked jobs as well as the ranking this page used before. Each week it learns from coaches who were still on the job at that point, so a firing during the season counts. In the Boiling zone it has run a few points high. Every job, and the method.

Offense: 35th of 138 per play. Defense: 82nd.

Offense, per play35thPassing offense138thDefense, per play82ndDefense, points allowed per trip inside the 40111thWorstBest
Offense, per play35th of 138Passing offense138th of 138Defense, per play82nd of 138Defense, points allowed per trip inside the 40111th of 138WorstBest
Through 8 games. Each tick is an FBS team, adjusted for opponent strength (CFB Zeitgeist model); the dot is Air Force. The other two rows are where Air Force stands furthest from the middle. Early-season numbers move a lot.

4 games left

  1. Sat Nov 7at Army (5-3)CBS40%
  2. Sat Nov 14vs. San José State (4-5)CBS Sports Network75%
  3. Fri Nov 20vs. UTEP (1-7)The CW94%
  4. Sat Nov 28at New Mexico (7-1)The CW30%

Percent: Air Force’s chance to win, from the site’s model. Records are through today. Networks as announced; the rest are set closer to kickoff.

How the season got here

Where Air Force stood among 138 FBS programs by stature after each game (1st is the highest; the CFB Zeitgeist ledger).

83rd89th95thPreseason89thDuquesne W 34-0Duquesne W 34-0W 34-0Duquesne89thNorth Dakota State L 32-38North Dakota State L 32-38L 32-38North Dakota …89thNevada W 36-33Nevada W 36-33W 36-33Nevada88thNavy W 14-9Navy W 14-9W 14-9Navy89thNorthern Illinois W 28-7Northern Illinois W 28-7W 28-7Northern Illi…89thUNLV W 41-31UNLV W 41-31W 41-31UNLV90thWyoming L 14-28Wyoming L 14-28L 14-28Wyoming89thUConn W 35-26UConn W 35-26W 35-26UConn89thBye89th
  1. Oct 26–Nov 1W 35-26 vs. UConn0 headlines
  2. Oct 19–25L 14-28 at Wyoming1 headline · 81st of 138
  3. Oct 12–18W 41-31 vs. UNLV0 headlines
  4. Oct 5–11W 28-7 at Northern Illinois0 headlines
  5. Sep 28–Oct 4W 14-9 vs. Navy0 headlines
  6. Sep 21–27 · rebuiltW 36-33 at Nevada0 headlines

Each week as this page showed it at the time. Weeks marked rebuilt came before this page existed: they were built afterward from only what was known by the end of that week.

Watch the biggest plays from Air Force’s games, ranked by how much each moved the chance to win.

Report card

Offense carries it: 80th percentile offense, below the median defense at 47th.

Air Force, every completed season graded against the whole field, then averaged.

Offense

A
of which —80th
efficiency — 80th percentile success rate, 2007–25
A80th
Standard-downs success
B-59th
Passing-downs success
A84th
Trench push (line yards)
B60th
Red-zone scoring rate
A81st
Power-success (short yardage)
B66th
Ball security (giveaways per game)

Defense

C+
of which —47th
47th percentile SP+ defense, 2014–25 (SP+ starts 2014)
C-30th
Front-7 havoc
C+47th
Secondary havoc
C42nd
Stuff rate (run defense)
C-36th
Takeaways per game

Each season is his team’s percentile among every team with that stat (the share it beat), averaged over his completed seasons here; a mid-season takeover year and the season in progress aren’t graded. Letters: A+ 90th percentile and up, A 80, B+ 70, B 60, B− 50, C+ 45, C 40, C− 30, D 15, F below.