Willie Simmons

Head coach · Florida International
2nd season · since 2025

At school10-11since 2025 · 3-5 this seasonHot seatWarm10% · 37th of 132 jobsLast gameL 10-49at Liberty · Oct 31Nextvs Missouri StateSat Nov 7 · 4 pm ET
This week · as of Wed Nov 4

3-5, lost 3 straight, on track for 5-7 in the regular season.

Now

Career arc

Bowls and playoffs: 0-1

2025First Responder BowlL 20-57

This week Wed Nov 4

  • Last gameL 10-49 at Liberty Sat Oct 31
  • This season3-5 lost 3 straight
  • Hot seat10% 37th of 132
  • On track for5-7 regular season
  • Nextvs. Missouri State Sat Nov 7
  • Stature124th of 138 FBS programs

Win and he’s at 8%. Lose and he’s at 12%.

vs. Missouri State, Sat Nov 7, 4 pm ET ESPN+ · Missouri State is 3-5 · First meeting between Simmons and Casey Woods as head coaches · Florida International’s chance to win: 61% (the site’s model)

CoolWarmHotBoilingIf Florida International wins: 8%, 40th of 132Now: 10%If Florida International loses: 12%, 33rd of 1320%50%+
CoolWarmHotBoiling0%50%+
  • If Florida International wins: 8%, 40th of 132
  • Now: 10%
  • If Florida International loses: 12%, 33rd of 132
His chance of being out after the season, now and after Saturday. Each tick is an FBS head coach’s number today; ranks are against today’s field. From the site’s hot-seat model.

Is he getting fired?

10% chance he’s out after the season · 37th of 132 FBS head coaches · Warm

Coolunder 10%Warm10–20%Hot20–35%Boiling35% upNow6% had they won6% had they wonLoss 12%Win 8%9%10%8%10%9%6%5%8%10%Pre1L at South FloridaL2W vs. BuffaloW3L at Florida AtlanticL4W vs. Long Island UniversityW5W vs. New Mexico StateW6L at Jacksonville StateL7L vs. Middle TennesseeL8L at LibertyL9Chance to win vs. Missouri State61%10Chance to win at Delaware22%11Chance to win at Kennesaw State46%12Chance to win vs. Sam Houston71%Game number. Under each game: the result, or his team’s chance to win it
CoolWarmHotBoilingNow6% had they wonLoss 12%Win 8%9%10%Pre368912Game
Dark line: his number after each game; a small dot just before a game is where it stood at kickoff, after other results moved it. Gray: where it could go, 8 seasons in 10 (darker, the middle half). The hollow dot: had his last game gone the other way. From the site’s hot-seat model.

If he finishes…

Bar: how likely that finish isNumber: his chance of being out

  1. 3-918%
  2. 4-812%
  3. 5-78%
  4. 6-65%
  5. 7-53%
Why his number is where it is

Our hot-seat model, on his record so far, the win chances for every game he has left, and his contract (a bigger buyout, relative to pay, makes a change costlier). Ranked against the 132 FBS head coaches with 3+ games this season.

Now hotter than at this point in 2025.

His hot seat, week by week

The chance he’s out by the end of that season, as it stood after every week of his tenure here, by today’s model.

BoilingHotWarmCool202520262025, week 3 (3 games in): 2%, 75th-hottest of 118 FBS jobs2025, week 4 (4 games in): 3%, 78th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 5 (4 games in): 3%, 78th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 6 (5 games in): 2%, 79th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 7 (5 games in): 2%, 80th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 8 (6 games in): 2%, 84th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 9 (7 games in): 2%, 81st-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 10 (8 games in): 2%, 77th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 11 (9 games in): 2%, 83rd-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 12 (10 games in): 1%, 84th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 13 (11 games in): 1%, 89th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 14 (12 games in): 1%, 83rd-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 15 (12 games in): 1%, 83rd-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 16 (12 games in): 1%, 83rd-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2026, week 3 (3 games in): 9.6%, 45th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2026, week 4 (4 games in): 9%, 48th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 5 (4 games in): 9%, 48th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 6 (5 games in): 6%, 61st-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 7 (6 games in): 5%, 65th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 8 (7 games in): 8%, 49th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 9 (8 games in): 10%, 41st-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 10 (8 games in): 10%, 37th-hottest of 132 FBS jobsnow

Earlier seasons price the games left with power ratings rebuilt after those seasons ended.

What drives his number

The biggest factors, each against the typical FBS job today.

  • ▲ Hotter
    3-5, outscored by 12
  • ▲ Hotter
    $1.6M buyout (imputed from pay) · 2.1× his pay, a multiple among the smallest in FBS — cheap to move on
  • ▼ Cooler
    Regional Program program · the bar going in

What happened to coaches like him, 2004–2025

A different comparison: past coaches, not today’s, grouped by one fact at a time. Neither line knows the games he has left or his contract, so they can sit above or below his chance.

Were 3-5 after 8 games
18% pushed out over results · of 379 coaches
Were in year 2, after 8 games
5% pushed out over results · of 469 coaches
The outcome
Pushed out over results — a firing, forced resignation, mutual parting or non-renewal, each read case by case. Leaving for a better job, or retiring on his own terms, doesn’t count.
Buyout
$1,550,602 imputed from total pay — not a reported figure · 2.1× total pay · a small buyout, which raises his chance of being let go · without it: 4%

How good is this number? Checked on every FBS coach from 2010 to 2025, with its percentages calibrated each season on earlier years only: they track what happened — coaches it put near 25% were out about a quarter of the time — and a version pricing the games left with the previous season’s ratings ranked jobs as well as the ranking this page used before. Each week it learns from coaches who were still on the job at that point, so a firing during the season counts. In the Boiling zone it has run a few points high. Every job, and the method.

One headline named him in the last 7 days

85th of 138 FBS head coaches

The headlines, Nov 1–4

What they are talking about, week and season

Offense: 113th of 138 per play. Defense: 48th.

Offense, per play113thOffense, points per trip inside the 40128thDefense, per play48thDefense, points allowed per trip inside the 4020thWorstBest
Offense, per play113th of 138Offense, points per trip inside the 40128th of 138Defense, per play48th of 138Defense, points allowed per trip inside the 4020th of 138WorstBest
Through 8 games. Each tick is an FBS team, adjusted for opponent strength (CFB Zeitgeist model); the dot is Florida International. The other two rows are where Florida International stands furthest from the middle. Early-season numbers move a lot.

4 games left

  1. Sat Nov 7vs. Missouri State (3-5)ESPN+61%
  2. Sat Nov 14at Delaware (4-4)ESPN+22%
  3. Sat Nov 21at Kennesaw State (2-6)46%
  4. Sat Nov 28vs. Sam Houston (1-7)71%

Percent: Florida International’s chance to win, from the site’s model. Records are through today. Networks as announced; the rest are set closer to kickoff.

How the season got here

Where Florida International stood among 138 FBS programs by stature after each game (1st is the highest; the CFB Zeitgeist ledger).

116th122nd128thPreseason123rdSouth Florida L 9-19South Florida L 9-19L 9-19South Florida123rdBuffalo W 33-20Buffalo W 33-20W 33-20Buffalo123rdFlorida Atlantic L 10-16Florida Atlantic L 10-16L 10-16Florida Atlan…123rdLong Island University W 20-3Long Island University W 20-3W 20-3Long Island U…123rdNew Mexico State W 22-3New Mexico State W 22-3W 22-3New Mexico St…123rdJacksonville State L 24-27Jacksonville State L 24-27L 24-27Jacksonville …124thMiddle Tennessee L 23-26Middle Tennessee L 23-26L 23-26Middle Tennes…120thLiberty L 10-49Liberty L 10-49L 10-49Liberty123rd
  1. Oct 26–Nov 1L 10-49 at Liberty0 headlines
  2. Oct 19–25L 23-26 vs. Middle Tennessee1 headline · 81st of 138Football | Postgame Media Availability | Willie Simmons | Middle Tennessee FIU Athletics
  3. Oct 12–18L 24-27 at Jacksonville State0 headlines
  4. Oct 5–11W 22-3 vs. New Mexico State0 headlines
  5. Sep 28–Oct 4No game0 headlines
  6. Sep 21–27 · rebuiltW 20-3 vs. Long Island University0 headlines

Each week as this page showed it at the time. Weeks marked rebuilt came before this page existed: they were built afterward from only what was known by the end of that week.

Watch the biggest plays from Florida International’s games, ranked by how much each moved the chance to win.

Poach watch

This winter

4%chance he leaves this winter for a head-coaching job elsewhere, or an NFL coordinator jobSettled53rd-highest of 132 FBS head coaches
0%50%+

Our poach model, on his record so far, the win chances for every game he has left, his program, his pay and his background. Ranked against the 132 FBS head coaches this season. The zone words describe the market’s interest; none of them says he is leaving.

What drives his number

The biggest factors in his profile, each against the typical FBS head coach today. The games he has left are priced into the number, not listed here.

  • ▲ Higher
    Paid $750,000 in 2025, the 10th percentile of published FBS head-coach pay
  • ▼ Lower
    His team is 3-5, outscored by 1.5 points a game
  • ▼ Lower
    7-6 over his previous season here
How good is this number? It ranks a head coach who leaves for another head-coaching job ahead of one who stays 78 to 82% of the time, and its average came within a point of the share who actually left. What it can’t do

Tested on every FBS head coach from 2012 through 2025, each season scored by a model fit only on the seasons before it. From three games on, given one coach who left for a head-coaching job elsewhere or an NFL coordinator job and one who stayed, it ranked the one who left ahead 79 to 82% of the time; in a season’s first two games, 78%. Its average chance came within a point of the share who actually left. It counts a move a coach makes while he still holds the job; when his school ends it, that doesn’t count, even if another school then hires him.

  • The live number prices the games he has left with the power model’s ratings from this season. The test priced them with each team’s rating from the season before, because ratings made during past seasons were not kept, so this live version could not be replayed.
  • Programs new to FBS have no FBS record before this season in the data it reads, so their coaches are scored without one.
  • It is frozen: it learns nothing from 2026 until a deliberate refit.
  • A coach hired in December needs his background (age, alma mater, the state he was born in) added before his first game, or he shows as not rated.