cfb zeitgeistZeitgeist
OFFSEASON · SUMMER 2026 · COMMITMENT SEASON
Heisman / Players / Alex Bauman /Miami

Alex Bauman

TE · Miami · Sr · #87

Below the discourse floor — the honest stats-only state.

166 REC YDS · 18 REC · 1 REC TD

2026 RETURNINGReturning to Miami for 2026

2026 Outlook

Returning to Miami for 2026

2026 Depth chart

Projected starter

Tight end · Miami

Returning around him

  • 12% of 2024 offensive production back (Heavy turnover)
  • 9 Miami players drafted to NFL
  • Transfer portal: -6 net (13 in / 19 out)

2026 Award watch

No preseason watch lists yet (most drop June 15 – July 15)

Miami · Last season: 13-3 (AP #10) · Talent rank #15 · 2026 recruiting class #13

TE · MIAMI · ACC

Alex Bauman

  • 4
  • #87
  • 6-5 | 245 lb
  • Red Bank, NJ

CFB Zeitgeist Score

27

Below cohort in the position cohort. Carried by long catch at the 45th percentile.

Heisman Heat

#692

<1% win probability

Fan Belief

Awaiting

Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.

Respect Gap

Awaiting

Coming online with player-level FI.

Reality Gap

Awaiting

Coming online with player-level FI.

ACCOLADE PROBABILITY

Heisman

<1%

TOP TE AWARD

Mackey

CONSENSUS

All-American

Player Standing · 17 rungs

Tier 2 · Starter

R06 · Starter

Starter. A locked-in starting role.

Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex

Career arc · Season-by-season Standing

4 seasons on the ladder

Peak: R09 All-Conference HM / 2nd team · 2024

2022

Tulane · TE

2023

Tulane · TE

2024

Tulane · TE

R09 · All-Conference HM / 2nd team

Recognized

2025

Miami · TE

Development Trajectory · receiving yards

2022–2025
1122022
2862023
2122024
1662025

+48%

Up 48% from first season to most-recent.

Career Arc

HS
Recruit
★★★
#1770 national
CFB
College
2 teams
2022–2025
NFL
NFL Draft
Not drafted (yet)

Identity & Role

The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.

PositionTE
Class4
Jersey87
Measurements6-5 | 245 lb
HometownRed Bank, NJ
Primary teamMiami

Recruiting Pedigree

How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.

Top pedigree 3-star No. 1770 recruit
Composite rating 0.8267 HighSchool
Signed with Tulane 2022
Origin Red Bank Catholic Red Bank, NJ, USA
Class Profile Context
2022 3-star | 0.8267 No. 1770 recruit | HighSchool | Tulane

Transfer Arc

Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.

Portal moves 0 No portal entry on file
Latest destination -- --
Transfer stars -- CFBD transfer rating context
Eligibility -- Transfer date TBD
Season Move Context
No transfer portal moves on file for this player.

Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final

Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.

HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16
Current nowcast#692Latest modeled ballot order
Season forecast#852Where the full season sim points
Win probability0.0%Chance to actually win the trophy
Finalist probability0.0%Chance to make the finalist tier
Ballot probability0.0%Chance to appear anywhere on a ballot
Best official finish--Best completed Heisman placement on file

Heisman Futures

Not yet listed on major futures markets.

No achievements unlocked yet this season.

Selector Grid · 2025

AP
FWAA
AFCA
WCFF
SN
SI

Selector recognition fills in once the major honors lists (AP, FWAA, AFCA, Walter Camp, Sporting News, SI) are scraped and ingested.

NIL · Recruiting · NFL Draft

Market value, pedigree & pro outcome

Recruit stars

★★★☆☆

to Tulane

Composite

0.8267

#1770 national

Today’s Hot-Take

The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.

Anti-Take

PENDING

The contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.

The Room on Alex Bauman

Fan sentiment ·

Belief Meter

50

Mixed Sentiment

Sample 3 mentions
Confidence BELOW-FLOOR

Top Take

Trajectory

Cohort divergence mapbearishbullishheatedcalmOwn fans: 4 mentions · belief -50 · "I’m so heartbroken by how our playoff run ended!!! No team we played in the post"Own fansNational: 1 mentions · belief +0 · "Estimating age based on years from High School graduation. This is the closest m"National
  • Own fans · n=4
  • National · n=1

Rival Radar

How rival fanbases talk about Alex Bauman

No rival-bucket mentions in the current season.

Signature Story

Awaiting candidate metric

He hasn't written his page yet — we'll start filling it in when there are enough snaps to rank against his peers.

Signature Moment

No signature moment on the ledger yet.

Returns once this player puts together a multi-game body of work — single-game flashes alone don't clear the bar.

A 3-act season arc returns once this player has six or more games on the ledger.

Season Pace · Projection

Where the receiving totals stand

projecting to 13-game
Through 10g
166Rec yards
18Receptions
1Rec TDs
Per game
16.6Rec yards
2Receptions
0Rec TDs
Projected (13g)
215.8Rec yards
23Receptions
1Rec TDs

To hit 700-yard receiver (currently 166): needs 178/game over remaining 3.

To hit 1,000-yard receiver (currently 166): needs 278/game over remaining 3.

To hit 60-catch season (currently 18): needs 14/game over remaining 3.

To hit 80-catch season (currently 18): needs 20.7/game over remaining 3.

To hit 8 receiving TDs (currently 1): needs 2.3/game over remaining 3.

To hit 10 receiving TDs (currently 1): needs 3/game over remaining 3.

Why the honors trail matters

The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.

The useful clue on this card is not just the Heisman rank, but the broader honors spine. Alex Bauman already has 1 loaded recognition item, which helps distinguish a player who is merely productive from one who is already earning selector-level validation.

Current place #692 0.0% win | 0.0% finalist
Role load 3.6% Overall usage share
Profile quirk Transfer path 0 portal moves

2025 Season · Final

Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.

Last season

TE season snapshot

2025 season snapshot | final

2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Receptions 18 1 rec TD | #124/475 (74th pct)
Receiving yards 166 9.2 per catch | #136/475 (72nd pct)
Scrimmage yards 166 Total offensive yardage | #136/475 (72nd pct)
Player identity What kind of player is this?

30-second read

What kind of player is this?

Receiving weapon against FBS receiving peers.

Balanced profile

2025 Season · Final

2025 season snapshot | final

Receiving

REC
18 74th
YDS
166 72nd
YPR
9.2 44th
TD
1 71st

Game Log · Week-by-week

2025 season · 10 games

Box score · CFBD
WkOppRECYDSAVGTDLONGNote
Wk 2W 45-3vs Bethune-Cookman2126.006
Wk 6W 28-22@ Florida State3186.008
Wk 8L 21-24vs Louisville11414.0014
Wk 10L 20-26@ SMU144.014
Wk 11W 38-10vs Syracuse177.007
Wk 12W 41-7vs NC State2136.507
Wk 14W 38-7@ Pittsburgh35819.3033Season-high 58 yds
BowlW 10-3@ Texas A&M273.504
BowlW 31-27@ Ole Miss2115.507
BowlL 21-27@ Indiana12222.0022
Total181669.4133
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score

Traditional history

Traditional Stats

Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.

Season rows Career row

Season context · Team result + system

2022Tulane12-2HC: Willie Fritz · Run-leaning
2023Tulane11-3HC: Slade Nagle · Run-leaning
2024Tulane9-5HC: Jon Sumrall · Run-heavy
2025Miami13-3HC: Mario Cristobal · Balanced
SeasonTeam
2025Miami181669.21--
2024Tulane2021210.67--
2023Tulane352868.25--
2022Tulane811214.01--
Career4 loaded seasons817769.614--
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context

Advanced metrics second

Advanced Metrics

Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.

Usage Value Context
Pass share

The tight end's share of the passing offense, which helps distinguish a featured receiving tight end from a secondary option.

Role share

A blended usage view that shows how often the offense flows through the tight end compared with other same-level peers.

Peer percentile

Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.

Traditional first

The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.

Usage 3.6% 7.5% pass-game share | #153/468 (68th pct)
Return yards 0 0 return TD
Touchdowns 1 Across offense and returns | #140/475 (71st pct)
Open full stat explorer
0 metrics visible Showing all metrics
Group Metric Value Rank Pct Why it matters
Receiving Receptions 18 #124/475 74th pct Volumevs FBS TE
Receiving Receiving yards 166 #136/475 72nd pct Volumevs FBS TE
Receiving Receiving TD 1 #140/475 71st pct Scoringvs FBS TE
Receiving Yards / catch 9.2 #266/475 44th pct Efficiencyvs FBS TE
Usage Pass share 7.5% #153/468 68th pct Air-game usagevs FBS TE
Receiving Receiving LONG 33 #111/475 77th pct Metricvs FBS TE
Usage 3rd-down usage 6.0% #112/468 76th pct Money-down loadvs FBS TE
Usage Passing-down usage 5.6% #118/468 75th pct Known-passing sharevs FBS TE
Usage 2nd-down usage 4.5% #148/468 69th pct Middle-down loadvs FBS TE
Usage Role share 3.6% #159/468 66th pct Share of team offensevs FBS TE
Usage Standard-down usage 2.9% #228/468 51st pct Base-situation sharevs FBS TE
Usage 1st-down usage 2.3% #288/468 39th pct Early-down loadvs FBS TE
Usage Rush share 0.0% #58/468 88th pct Ground-game usagevs FBS TE

Player Standing

Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.

AWAITING CLASSIFICATION

On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex

AWAITING CLASSIFICATION · Rung None of 16

Why he’s here

Standing classification populates when honors, Heisman, and roster signals all align.

What moves him up

What moves him down

Accolade streams

StatusAwaiting tracker

The Mackey award tracker integrates per-week probability once a dedicated scraper for this award lands. Confirmed past winners and finalists for this player will surface here.

Splits · Per-game

2025 season · 10 games

Home/Road · Win/Loss · Season halves

Home vs Road

REC/gYDS/gYPRTD/g
Home4g1.511.58.40.0
Road6g2.020.010.00.2

Win vs Loss

REC/gYDS/gYPRTD/g
Wins7g2.118.07.70.0
Losses3g1.013.313.30.3

First half vs Second half

REC/gYDS/gYPRTD/g
Weeks 1-75g2.014.08.60.0
Weeks 8+5g1.619.210.20.2

Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.

Savant · Box-rate percentiles

Where this profile ranks vs the TE cohort

27Below cohort
5 metrics · season cumulative

Concern: rec tds (21st).

Long catch#94 / 175 · 45th pct
33rece
Receptions#124 / 175 · 28th pct
18rece
Yards / catch#130 / 175 · 26th pct
9.2rece
Rec yards#134 / 175 · 23rd pct
166rece
Rec TDs#126 / 175 · 21st pct
1rece

Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.

Advanced Savant · TE · 2024

Percentile Card

Advanced opponent-adjusted percentile bars are coming soon for this player.

P4G5All FBS
EPA / dropback
awaiting
CPOE
awaiting
Success rate
awaiting
Explosive rate (20+)
awaiting
aDOT
awaiting
Deep-ball accuracy
awaiting
Pressure-to-sack
awaiting
3rd-down EPA
awaiting
Red-zone TD rate
awaiting
Play-action EPA
awaiting
Scramble EPA
awaiting
Turnover-worthy play rate
awaiting

Advanced Savant

Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.

Advanced opponent-adjusted metrics are coming soon for this player. Selected cohort: P4.

Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match

Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile

3 peers · 5 metrics
Alex BaumanMiamiBryce CaufieldOregon State· 79% simHayden HansenFlorida· 74% simTyler FortenberryArkansas State· 72% sim
Long catch
45
Bauman
39
Caufield
32
Hansen
32
Fortenberry
Receptions
28
Bauman
66
Caufield
69
Hansen
75
Fortenberry
Yards / catch
26
Bauman
7
Caufield
16
Hansen
26
Fortenberry
Rec yards
23
Bauman
44
Caufield
54
Hansen
58
Fortenberry
Rec TDs
21
Bauman
21
Caufield
43
Hansen
43
Fortenberry

Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.

Player DNA

The Complete TE

Dual-threat: blocks when needed, catches when needed. Coveted on both sides.

TE

His 2025 production profile sits closest to Gus McGee’s 2025 season.

Gus McGee

84%match

Charlotte · 2025

#2

Samuel Wheeler

Kansas State · 2021

78%
#3

Matt Wagner

Boise State · 2025

78%
#4

Bauer Sharp

LSU · 2025

NFL Rd 6
76%
#5

Dan Dishman

UTSA · 2022

74%

Matches Gus on

Total EPA (college ability)
TD rate
EPA / play (adj)

Not enough data yet for this comparison.

As a senior, his production profile tracks closest to Bauer Sharp's senior season at LSU (2025).

Bauer Sharp

85%match

LSU · 2025

NFL Rd 6
#2

Jake Overman

Pittsburgh · 2024

85%
#3

Riley Smith

Boise State · 2023

79%
#4

Johnmichael Gyllenborg

Wyoming · 2025

75%
#5

Keanu Hill

BYU · 2023

73%

Matches Bauer on

Yards / reception
Total EPA (college ability)
Reception volume

Supporting Cast · Scheme

Staff and system around the player

2025 season

Head Coach

Mario Cristobal

Pass share

47.2%

496 pass / 554 run

Plays / game

65.6

16 games

OL sack rate (allowed)

4.1%

245 dropbacks · PBP

Scheme: Balanced.

Coaching Lineage · 2022–2025

1 coach
2022
Mario Cristobal
Miami
2023
Mario Cristobal
Miami
2024
Mario Cristobal
Miami
2025
Mario Cristobal
Miami

Played his entire career under Mario Cristobal.

Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster

Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.

HometownRed Bank, NJ
Height6'5"
Weight245 lb
Class4
PositionTE
Jersey87

Trophy Case · Confirmed honors

What the selectors said

1 entries
🎖

ALL-CONFERENCE

All-Conf mention (2024)

All-AAC

Trophy Case · Detail

Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.

All-Conference

1 all-conference honor

Conference-level recognition helps anchor whether a player is merely statistically loud or actually viewed as elite within his competitive lane.

Honors Timeline

Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.

Season Honor Scope Team / Selector Context
2024 All-AAC all_conference Tulane | AAC TE

Heisman By Year

Modeled rank and official finish by season.

Season Team Role Latest Model Forecast Win Finalist Official Finish Points Context
2024 Tulane TE4 #692 #852 0.0% 0.0% -- -- W16 snapshot | American Athletic
2023 Tulane TE4 #988 #991 0.0% 0.0% -- -- W19 snapshot | American Athletic
2022 Tulane TE4 #1074 #866 0.0% 0.0% -- -- W20 snapshot | American Athletic

Roster Timeline

Team, conference, and class by season.

Season Team Conference Pos Class Bio
2025 Miami ACC TE 4 No. 87 | 6-5 | 245 lb | Red Bank, NJ
2024 Tulane American Athletic TE 4 No. 87 | 6-5 | 245 lb | Red Bank, NJ
2023 Tulane American Athletic TE 4 No. 87 | 6-5 | 245 lb | Red Bank, NJ
2022 Tulane American Athletic TE 4 No. 87 | 6-5 | 245 lb | Red Bank, NJ