Alred Luke

Senior wide receiver for Missouri State. 2025: 43 catches, 640 receiving yards, 5 TD.

WR · Missouri State · Sr. · #1

5′8″ · 175 lb · New Orleans, LA

CFB Index 58 · #145 of 485 WRsHigh confidenceReturning to Missouri State for 2026

How he projects

Moves the chains on third down.

The full scouting read

The story

4 wide receiver for Missouri State. 2025: 43 catches, 640 receiving yards, 5 TD.

The record fills in as he plays.

His career, year by year

Alred Luke

WR · Missouri State · Sr · #1

Moves the chains on third down. Across three seasons and two programs, two head coaches: Terry Bowden and Nick Petrino. The receipt: 169 rec yds, 7 receptions against Arkansas State — Bowl, 2025.

Low coverage — composed from the verified record.

positional archetype classification
head-coach lineage
game log

2025 snapshot

Season context · Team result + system

2022UL Monroe4-8HC: Terry Bowden · Run-leaning, slow tempo

2023UL Monroe2-10HC: Terry Bowden · Run-leaning

2025Missouri State7-6HC: Nick Petrino · Balanced

Where this profile ranks vs the WR cohort

Box-score + play-by-play EPA percentiles

58Quality starter #145 of 485?

High confidence11 metrics · season cumulative

Elite: explosive rate (88th percentile). Concern: catch rate (29th percentile).

Real play-by-play efficiency

Explosive rate#100 / 798 · 88th pct

17.5%

Yards / catch#167 / 798 · 79th pct

14.3

TD rate#311 / 798 · 61st pct

3.2%

EPA / target#425 / 798 · 47th pct

0.40

Catch rate#565 / 798 · 29th pct

61.9%

Box-score rates (6)

Rec TDs#96 / 558 · 78th pct

Rec yards#126 / 558 · 77th pct

640

Yards / catch#138 / 558 · 75th pct

14.9

Long catch#164 / 558 · 70th pct

Receptions#166 / 558 · 70th pct

Fumbles lost#86 / 218 · 36th pct

Season trend

EPA / target— first qualifying season

Explosive rate— first qualifying season

Catch rate— first qualifying season

TD rate— first qualifying season

Yards / catch— first qualifying season

Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season. Most bars are box-score rates; EPA / success-rate bars are computed from real play-by-play (offense only — no defensive EPA model exists yet).

Situational

Situational · Share of own targets (PBP, 2025)

Third-down role

19%12 of his 63 targets came on third down · Receiver median is 24%

Splits & context

Splits · Per-game

2025 season · 13 games

Home/Road · Season halves

Home vs Road

	REC/g	YDS/g	YPR	TD/g
Home6g	3.5	49.8	14.2	0.5
Road7g	3.1	48.7	12.3	0.3

First half vs Second half

	REC/g	YDS/g	YPR	TD/g
Weeks 1-77g	4.4	72.0	15.5	0.6
Weeks 8+6g	2.0	22.7	9.6	0.2

Supporting cast · Scheme

Staff and system around the player

2026 season

Head Coach

Casey Woods

Scheme reads (pass share, tempo, sack rate) need at least 3 team games — 2 games in so far.

Awards

Player standing · 2025

Rotational

Earning real snaps in the rotation without a starting job.

Recognition

Roster2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex

Production · CFB Index Score

58 · #145 of 485 WRs

2026 outlook

Outside shot for All-Conference USA

Based on 2025: #11 of 52 Conference USA WRs

How the All-Conference USA estimate is computed

22% estimated, 95% confidence interval 19–25%. Base rate measured from players who finished at a comparable rank in their conference and came back the next season. It is an estimate from a small sample, not a forecast of this player.

Career stats

Season	Team
2025	Missouri State	43	640	14.9	5	--
2023	UL Monroe	16	184	11.5	1	--
2022	UL Monroe	23	293	12.7	1	--
Career		82	1,117	13.6	7	--

Season	Team
2025	Missouri State	--	--	257	87	--
2023	UL Monroe	--	--	376	--	--
2022	UL Monroe	8	23	354	--	--
Career		8	23	987	87	--

Signature game

SIGNATURE GAME · Week 4 · 2025

W 42–10

vs UT Martin

9 rec · 110 yds · 1 TD

Dominant 32-point win at home against UT Martin.

With J. Clark — 271 yds · 3 TD · 0 INT · QBR 72.5 · 22 rush yds (7 car) · 2 TD · S. McDonald — 43 AVG · 3 IN 20 · 48 LONG

Signature plays

Signature plays · top plays by |EPA|

The plays that mattered most

fact

Week 1 · Arkansas State · 3&5 · Q4 · EPA +5.08(05:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 J.Clark pass complete deep middle to #1 D.Luke caught at ASU20, for 47 yards to the ASU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 05:26, 1ST DOWN #12 J.Clark pass attempt failed
Week 1 · Arkansas State · 1&10 · Q4 · EPA +3.19(03:01) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 J.Clark pass complete deep middle to #1 D.Luke caught at ASU35, for 59 yards to the ASU06 (#8 B.Barnes), 1ST DOWN
Week 1 · Arkansas State · 2&4 · Q1 · EPA +3.17(00:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 J.Clark pass complete deep left to #1 D.Luke caught at ASU10, for 39 yards to the ASU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:17, 1ST DOWN #36 Y.Obeid kick attempt good (H: #25 S.McDonald, LS: #47 A.Kallas)
Week 3 · SMU · 2&9 · Q1 · EPA +2.74Jacob Clark pass complete to Dash Luke for 9 yds for a TD (Yousef Obeid KICK)
Week 4 · UT Martin · 1&10 · Q2 · EPA +2.58Jacob Clark pass complete to Dash Luke for 17 yds for a TD (Yousef Obeid KICK)
Week 13 · Kennesaw State · 1&10 · Q2 · EPA +2.38(01:49) Shotgun #12 J.Clark pass complete short middle to #1 D.Luke caught at MSU36, for 28 yards to the MSU48, out of bounds at MSU48, 1ST DOWN
Week 3 · SMU · 1&10 · Q3 · EPA +2.29Jacob Clark pass complete to Dash Luke for 27 yds to the MOST 47 for a 1ST down
Week 4 · UT Martin · 1&10 · Q2 · EPA +2.29Jacob Clark pass complete to Dash Luke for 24 yds to the UTM 38 for a 1ST down UT Martin Penalty, Personal Foul (Jacob Stevenson) to the UTM 23 for a 1ST down
Week 3 · SMU · 2&9 · Q3 · EPA +2.26Jacob Clark pass complete to Dash Luke for 22 yds to the SMU 31 for a 1ST down
Week 12 · UTEP · 2&3 · Q4 · EPA +2.21Shotgun #12 J.Clark pass complete short left to #1 D.Luke caught at UTEP02, for 3 yards to the UTEP00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 03:12 #36 Y.Obeid kick attempt good (H: #25 S.McDonald, LS: #47 A.Kallas)

Game log

Game log · Week-by-week

2025 season · 13 games

Box score · CFBD

Wk	Opp	REC	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG	Note
Wk 1	L 13-73@ USC	3	25	8.3	0	18	Season-high 169 yds
Wk 2	W 21-20@ Marshall	2	24	12.0	0	23
Wk 3	L 10-28vs SMU	5	80	16.0	1	27
Wk 4	W 42-10vs UT Martin	9	110	12.2	1	24
Wk 5	L 22-27vs Western Kentucky	3	71	23.7	0	44
Wk 7	W 22-20@ Middle Tennessee	2	25	12.5	0	19
Wk 9	W 24-17@ New Mexico State	1	4	4.0	0	4
Wk 10	W 28-21vs Florida International	—	—	—	—	—
Wk 11	W 21-17@ Liberty	2	21	10.5	0	12
Wk 12	W 38-24vs UTEP	2	14	7.0	1	11
Wk 13	L 34-41@ Kennesaw State	5	73	14.6	0	28
Wk 14	L 30-42vs Louisiana Tech	2	24	12.0	0	15
Bowl	L 28-34@ Arkansas State	7	169	24.1	2	59
Total		43	640	13.1	5	59

Stats from CFBD · ESPN · fan discourse. Every figure computed from source tables — not invented. Methodology

Alred Luke

2025 snapshot

Situational

Splits & context

Awards

Rotational

Career stats

Signature game

Signature plays

Game log

How he plays

DNA match

Possession Receiver

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